Tifia Daily Market Analytics

[TifiaFX]

XAU/USD: Coronavirus pushes gold quotes up
31/01/2020
The "first phase" trade agreement between the United States and China, signed two weeks ago, eased tensions in trade relations between the two countries and gave a new positive impetus to stock indices. However, other factors may adversely affect economic growth in 2020.
A new negative factor of a global scale again threatens the global economy. This time, investor caution is fueled by fears about the spread of coronavirus in China. Representatives of the World Health Organization (WHO) have already expressed significant concern about the possibility of the spread of the virus outside of China.
In this situation, the demand for protective assets, including gold, is growing. A strong positive momentum remains, pushing gold quotes up. In case of breakdown of the nearest resistance level at 1585.00 (April 2013 highs and Fibonacci level 61.8% of the correction to the wave of decline from September 2011 and the mark of 1920.00), the XAU / USD pair will go towards the upper border of the upward channel on the weekly chart, passing near the mark of 1620.00.
In an alternative scenario and in case of breakdown of the short-term support level of 1569.00 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart), XAU / USD will resume the decline with targets at the support levels of 1484.00 (Fibonacci level of 50%), 1456.00 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart). A further decline in XAU / USD is unlikely, and, in the current situation, long positions are preferred.
Support Levels: 1569.00, 1555.00, 1542.00, 1520.00, 1510.00, 1484.00, 1456.00, 1450.00
Resistance Levels: 1585.00, 1600.00, 1620.00

Trading recommendations
Sell Stop 1568.00. Stop-Loss 1586.00. Take-Profit 1555.00, 1542.00, 1520.00, 1510.00, 1484.00, 1456.00, 1450.00
Buy Stop 1586.00. Stop-Loss 1568.00. Take-Profit 1600.00, 1620.00

 

[TifiaFX]

AUD/USD: on the eve of the RBA meeting
03/02/2020
The threat of coronavirus spreading outside of China, threatening to grow into an epidemic, brought down global stock indices last week. The World Health Organization last Thursday declared an outbreak of coronavirus infection an emergency of international importance. The number of confirmed coronavirus infected in China over the weekend has grown to nearly 15,000, the number of victims is already 305.
Given the size of China's GDP, as well as the possible consequences for other countries, the outbreak of the virus seems to be a significant enough reason for concern about the growth prospects of the world economy for the next few months.
On Tuesday, the RB of Australia makes a decision on the interest rate (the decision on the rate will be published at 03:30 GMT). Probably, the RBA will not yet change its current monetary policy, keeping the rate at a record level of 0.75%. However, this decision will not provide tangible support to the Australian dollar. The risks to Australian economy and the implications for Australian commodity and tourism demand are likely to continue to put pressure on weak growth prospects.
Thus, the Australian dollar and the pair AUD / USD are likely to remain under pressure with a tendency to further weaken and reduce, which will speak in favor of their sales.
At the beginning of today's European session, AUD / USD is trading near the 0.6690 mark, 10 points above the intraday low of 0.6680. In case of breakdown of the support levels of 0.6680 and 0.6670 (2019 lows and the Fibonacci level of 0%) and the resumption of decline, the goals will be the support levels of 0.6600, 0.6500. The distant target is located at support levels of 0.6260, 0.6000 (lows of 2008 - 2009).
The negative dynamics of AUD / USD prevails, making short positions on the pair more preferable.
Support Levels: 0.6680, 0.6670, 0.6600, 0.6300
Resistance Levels: 0.6755, 0.6763, 0.6802, 0.6820, 0.6837, 0.6869, 0.6900, 0.6935

Trading Recommendations
Sell Stop 0.6675. Stop-Loss 0.6730. Take-Profit 0.6600, 0.6300, 0.6260
Buy Stop 0.6730. Stop-Loss 0.6675. Take-Profit 0.6755, 0.6763, 0.6802, 0.6820, 0.6837, 0.6869, 0.6900

 

[TifiaFX]

NZD/USD: growth of quotations of commodity currencies may resume
04/02/2020
From October to December last year, the NZD / USD pair was in the upward correction period and reached an almost 8-month high near the 0.6755 mark at the end of December.
However, then NZD / USD fell sharply amid the spread of coronavirus in China threatening to slow down the global economy. The decrease in NZD / USD in January amounted to almost 4%.
Despite some easing of investors' concerns about a slowdown in the global economy and a resurgent rise in stock indices, commodity currencies, including NZD, are still under pressure.
On Tuesday, NZD / USD makes an attempt to break the lower border of the upward channel on the daily chart passing through the mark of 0.6465.
Negative dynamics still prevail, and technical indicators on the daily and weekly charts recommend short positions. In case of further decline, the targets will be the support levels of 0.6400, 0.6322 (November lows), 0.6260 (September 2015 lows and the Fibonacci level of 0%), 0.6205 (September lows).
Today, the volatility in the NZD / USD pair may again increase when data from a dairy auction organized by the New Zealand company Fonterra (a specialized trading platform GlobalDairyTrade - GDT) will be published after 15:00 (GMT). The Dairy Price Index, prepared by Global Dairy Trade, came out two weeks ago with a value of +1.7%. The increase in world prices for dairy products provides additional support to the New Zealand economy, increasing the level of foreign currency export earnings. Forecast for today: the Global Dairy Trade price index for dairy products will come out with a value of +0.9%, which is likely to also support the New Zealand dollar.
In this case, a breakdown of the local resistance level of 0.6485 will be the first signal to resume long positions in the NZD / USD pair. A breakdown of the key resistance level of 0.6540 (EMA200 on the daily chart) will again make long positions relevant with targets at the resistance levels of 0.6755 (EMA144 on the weekly chart), 0.6865 (EMA200 on the weekly chart and the Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction in the global pair decline wave with level 0.8820).
Investor concerns about coronavirus eased somewhat earlier this week, creating a favorable backdrop for renewed growth in global stock indices and commodity prices, as well as commodity currency quotes.
Support Levels: 0.6440, 0.6400, 0.6322, 0.6260, 0.6200, 0.6100
Resistance Levels: 0.6485, 0.6515, 0.6540, 0.6565, 0.6635, 0.6665, 0.6755, 0.6865

Trading Scenarios
Sell Stop 0.6440. Stop-Loss 0.6490. Take-Profit 0.6400, 0.6322, 0.6260, 0.6200, 0.6100
Buy Stop 0.6490. Stop-Loss 0.6440. Take-Profit 0.6515, 0.6540, 0.6565, 0.6635, 0.6665, 0.6755, 0.6865

 

[TifiaFX]

S&P 500: indices rise again after falling last week
05/02/2020
US stock indexes are actively recovering after falling last week.
Investors' concerns about the spread of coronavirus in China have declined, and investors returned to assessing the “first phase” trade agreement between the United States and China, signed last month.
Larry Kudlow, director of the U.S. Presidential National Economic Council, said on Tuesday that the impact of the spread of coronavirus is likely to delay, but not cancel, the support for the US economy expected from the first-phase trade agreement between the USA and China. According to Kudlow, in the longer term, the impact of a virus outbreak will be minimal.
At the opening of today's European session, futures for major US stock indexes rose sharply.
On Wednesday, the S&P500 rises for the third day in a row after falling last week and is trading at the beginning of the European session near 3325.0 mark, near the absolute record high reached in December at 3335.0.
S&P500 maintains long-term positive dynamics, trading above key support levels of 3050.0 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), 3100.0 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the growth since December 2018 and mark 2335.0) in the upward channels on the daily and weekly charts. Their upper border runs near 3370.0. This mark is likely to be the immediate goal of index growth.
Today in the period from 13:15 to 15:00 (GMT) a block of important macro statistics for the United States will be published. Of most interest will probably be the ADP report on private sector employment. US private sector employment growth is expected in January by +156,000. This is lower than the December figure (+202,000 employees), however, it is also a strong indicator of a labor market, which also indicates the stability of the US economy, which continues to grow amid the risks of a slowdown in the global economy.
Positive dynamics prevail, pushing indices to new records. Above the support levels 3276.0 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart), 3250.0 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart), long positions are preferred.
Support Levels: 3276.0, 3250.0, 3180.0, 3100.0, 3050.0, 3025.0, 2955.0
Resistance Levels: 3335.0, 3370.0

Trading Recommendations
Sell Stop 3270.0. Stop-Loss 3337.0. Targets 3250.0, 3180.0, 3100.0, 3050.0
Buy Stop 3337.0. Stop-Loss 3270.0. Goals 3350.0, 3370.0, 3400.0

 

[TifiaFX]

Brent: negative dynamics prevail

06/02/2020

As a result of the sharp increase in tension in the Middle East after the assassination of Iranian General Suleymani as a result of a U.S. airstrike at a Baghdad airport, the price of Brent crude rose sharply earlier last month, reaching $ 71.95 per barrel.

In the future, in the course of reducing the degree of tension in the Middle East, the price also began to decline sharply. The outbreak of coronavirus in China has become a strong negative driver for quotations of oil and other commodities.

The price of Brent crude oil broke through a key support level of 63.60 (EMA200 on the daily chart) and an important support level of 63.90 (Fibonacci level 38.2% of the downward correction in the wave of rising prices from a level near the level of 27.10 to the highs of October 2018 near the mark of 86.60 dollars per barrel) and continued to decline.

Investor sentiment improved slightly on Wednesday after media reports that a university in China had found a method for treating coronavirus, which was also reflected in quotes for oil and other commodities. The meeting of OPEC and its allies also supported prices. Leading oil producers may decide to further reduce their production to offset the decline in demand caused by the coronavirus.

Nevertheless, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the US Department of Energy announced on Wednesday an increase in oil reserves by 3.355 million barrels last week, higher than the forecast of +3.0 million barrels. U.S. oil production is still near record highs of 13,000 million barrels per day.

At the beginning of today's European session, Brent crude oil declines again after rising on Wednesday and is trading near 56.00. So far, a strong negative impulse prevails. Long positions are premature so far.

The slowdown in the growth of the Chinese economy, the second largest in the world, due to the threat of a large-scale epidemic of the virus and a possible decrease in oil demand from China will still negatively affect the prices of commodities, including oil.

Support Levels: 54.23, 50.00

Resistance Levels: 56.90, 58.15, 59.20, 60.40, 62.00, 63.60, 63.90, 66.00, 67.50, 69.70, 71.95, 72.60



Trading Recommendations

Sell by market. Stop-Loss 57.10. Take-Profit 55.00, 54.00, 53.00, 50.00

Buy Stop 57.10. Stop-Loss 54.20. Take-Profit 58.15, 59.20, 60.40, 62.00, 63.60, 63.90

 

[TifiaFX]

USD/CAD: on the eve of the NFP publication

07/02/2020

Current Dynamics

Today, the attention of market participants will be riveted to the publication at 13:30 (GMT) of data from the US labor market. Strong data expected. According to a report by the US Department of Labor, in January, 160,000 new jobs were created, salaries increased by 0.3%, and unemployment remained at the level of multi-year lows of 3.5%.

If the data is confirmed or is better than the forecast, then the dollar is likely to strengthen and US stock indices will rise. At the same time, you must be prepared for unexpected data that can cause increased volatility in the financial market. If the data on the labor market published today turn out to be weaker than the forecast, and previous reports will be revised downward, then the dollar may drop sharply.

Also at the same time (at 13:30 GMT) Statistics Canada will present its monthly report on the labor market in the country. Unemployment is expected to be 5.6% in January, the same as in December, and the number of employed increased by 15,000 (against 27,300 in December). If the data turn out to be better than the previous values or forecast, then the Canadian dollar is likely to strengthen, including with respect to the USD.

In any case, when data from the US and Canada labor markets are published, a surge in volatility is expected across the entire financial market. This will especially affect the USD / CAD pair, which grew in the first half of today's trading day, primarily due to the strengthening of the US dollar.

Futures on the DXY dollar index, which reflects the value of the dollar against a basket of 6 major world currencies, is growing today for the 5th day in a row and is trading at the beginning of today's European session near 98.46, 125 points higher than the closing price at the end of last week.

The dollar is strengthened by strong macro statistics coming from the United States, as well as the demand for it as a protective asset amid the spread of coronavirus in China.

At the beginning of today's European session, USD / CAD is trading near 1.3310, 85 pips above its opening price earlier this week.

So far, everything speaks in favor of further growth of USD / CAD. Nevertheless, it should be noted that the pair has reached the upper limit of the range located between the levels of 1.3345 (1.3380) and 1.3020 (1.3050). Near these resistance levels, if not a reversal, then rebound with a subsequent decrease is possible. A signal for sales may be a breakdown of the local support level 1.3265 and the short-term support level 1.3245 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart).

Nevertheless, while USD / CAD is trading above the key support level of 1.3200 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), long positions should be preferred.

Support Levels: 1.3265, 1.3245, 1.3200, 1.3165, 1.3120, 1.3050, 1.3020

Resistance Levels: 1.3325, 1.3345, 1.3380, 1.3400, 1.3452



Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 1.3025. Stop-Loss 1.3100. Take-Profit 1.3000, 1.2960, 1.2930

Buy Stop 1.3105. Stop-Loss 1.3025. Take-Profit 1.3120, 1.3190, 1.3300, 1.3325, 1.3345, 1.3380, 1.3400

 

[TifiaFX]

DJIA: Current Situation

10/02/2020

Chinese President Xi Jinping last week assured US President Trump of China's intention to fulfill the obligations of a recently signed trade deal.

US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said last week that the rapid spread of the virus will inevitably affect the Chinese economy and may affect the US economy, although it’s too early to judge the strength and magnitude of this influence.

This week (on Tuesday and Wednesday) Powell will speak in Congress as part of a statutory hearing. Probably, he will again touch upon the monetary policy of the Fed and the spread of coronavirus, which may cause increased volatility in world financial markets, including the US stock market.

On Friday, US stock markets closed in negative territory. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by -0.9%, to 29102, the S&P 500 - by -0.5%, to 3327, and the Nasdaq 100 - by -0.5%, to 9401.

Concerns over the spread of coronavirus in China nevertheless raise concerns about global growth. Fed officials call this an "unpredictable factor".

Nevertheless, the positive mood of investors related to the signing of the “first phase” trade agreement between the USA and China last month helps to maintain the positive dynamics of world and US stock indices, despite the epidemic of coronavirus in China.

Last week, the DJIA updated its absolute high near 59528.0, and at the beginning of today's European session, it is trading near 29070.0 mark.

Above the short-term support levels of 28990.0 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart), 28770.0 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart), the purchases look safe.

In an alternative scenario, the first signal for sales will be a breakdown of the short-term support level of 28899.0 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart). In case of further decline, the targets will be the support levels 28770.0, 28165.0 (January lows), 27400.0 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart).

However, only a breakdown of the support level of 24150.0 (EMA200 on the weekly chart and the Fibonacci level 38.2%) can break the DJIA bullish trend.

Despite the corrective decline, the long-term positive dynamics of the DJIA remains, which makes its purchases preferable.

Support Levels: 28990.0, 28770.0, 28165.0, 27400.0, 26220.0, 25270.0, 24600.0, 24150.0

Resistance Levels: 29528.0



Trading Scenarios

Buy Stop 29530.0. Stop-Loss 28760.0. Take-Profit 30000.0

Sell Stop 28760.0. Stop-Loss 29175.0. Take-Profit 28165.0, 28000.0, 27400.0

 

[TifiaFX]

AUD/USD: negative dynamics prevail

11/02/2020

At the start of today's European session, AUD / USD is trading near the 0.6710 mark, just below the intraday high of 0.6719 reached during the Asian session after the publication of positive macro statistics from Australia.

According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, the volume of issued housing loans increased in December by + 4.4% (with a forecast of + 1.6%), and the volume of issued housing loans related to investment grew in December by + 2.8%.

In total, in 2019, mortgage lending in Australia grew by + 14%, and this year the growth is likely to accelerate, some economists say. Such a development of events will attract the attention of the leaders of the Reserve Bank of Australia and make them reduce the tendency to further soften the policy of the bank.

Nevertheless, most economists believe that the RBA will be forced to return to the issue of lowering rates this year, despite the risks of overheating the housing market in the country.

"Forest fires and coronavirus will temporarily put pressure on growth in Australia in the short term. We are ready to continue easing monetary policy if it is necessary to support sustainable economic growth," said RBA managing director Philip Low last week.

Meanwhile, the DXY dollar index rose Monday for the sixth consecutive session and, supported by strong US employment data and concerns over the spread of coronavirus, rose on Tuesday to a 4-month high of 98.80.

The AUD / USD pair is trading below the nearest strong resistance levels of 0.6723 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart), 0.6800 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart), remaining in the area below the key resistance level 0.6885 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart) and maintaining negative dynamics.

OsMA and Stochastic indicators on the daily and weekly charts are on the side of the sellers.

Probably, the possible correctional growth of AUD / USD will be limited by the resistance levels of 0.6723, 0.6755, 0.6800.

In the event of a breakdown of the support level of 0.6670 (2019 lows and a Fibonacci level of 0%) and the resumption of decline, the goals will be the support levels of 0.6600, 0.6500. The distant target is located at support levels of 0.6260, 0.6000 (lows of 2008 - 2009).

So far, the negative dynamics of AUD / USD, which speaks in favor of its sales, still prevails.

On Tuesday and Wednesday, participants in financial markets will follow the speech of US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell in Congress (at 15:00 GMT).

He is likely to once again mark the “good form” of the American economy, and most likely the US dollar will maintain positive dynamics this week.

Support Levels: 0.6700, 0.6670, 0.6600, 0.6300

Resistance Levels: 0.6723, 0.6755, 0.6800, 0.6855, 0.6885, 0.6900, 0.6935



Trading Recommendations

Sell by market. Stop-Loss 0.6725. Take-Profit 0.6670, 0.6600, 0.6300

Buy Stop 0.6725. Stop-Loss 0.6675. Take-Profit 0.6755, 0.6800, 0.6855, 0.6885

 

[TifiaFX]

NZD/USD: concerns over coronavirus weaken

12/02/2020

As soon as today at 01:00 (GMT) the RBNZ decision on the rate was published, the New Zealand dollar strengthened sharply.

The New Zealand Reserve Bank seems to be beginning to show a tendency towards tighter monetary policy amid the release of data indicating an improvement in the country's economy and lower risks of a slowdown in the global economy due to coronavirus in China.

A statement made after the meeting of the RBNZ indicates that the central bank considers the risks associated with the outbreak of coronavirus not serious enough to significantly affect its position on monetary policy.

RBNZ forecasts suggest that if the negative consequences of a coronavirus outbreak on economic growth do not exceed expectations, the next step is likely to be not a decrease, but an increase in the interest rate.

After the RBNZ meeting, the NZD / USD pair increased by 50 points, and at the beginning of today's European session, NZD / USD is trading near 0.6485, which is 85 points higher than the opening price today.

The immediate goal in case of continued growth of NZD / USD is the resistance levels of 0.6525 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart), 0.6535 (EMA200 on the daily chart).

In case of their breakdown, NZD / USD will go towards the resistance levels of 0.6755 (EMA144 on the weekly chart), 0.6865 (EMA200 on the weekly chart and the Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction in the global wave of pair decline from the 0.8820 mark).

At the same time, below the key resistance level of 0.6535, long-term negative dynamics prevail.

A return into the zone below the level of 0.6450 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart) will cause a resumption of NZD / USD decline with targets at support levels of 0.6400, 0.6322 (November lows), 0.6260 (September 2015 lows and Fibonacci level 0%), 0.6205 (September lows).

Powell will continue his congressional speech Wednesday. It will begin at 15:00 (GMT). On Tuesday, he reiterated that "if a situation arises that will cause a significant reassessment of our forecasts, we will respond accordingly". If Powell speaks out more specifically regarding the need for a softer monetary policy by the Fed, the US dollar may fall under sales after its 7-day rise the day before.

In this case, the NZD / USD pair will receive an additional impetus for further growth.

Support Levels: 0.6465, 0.6450, 0.6400, 0.6378, 0.6322, 0.6260, 0.6200, 0.6100

Resistance Levels: 0.6485, 0.6515, 0.6525, 0.6535, 0.6600, 0.6635, 0.6665, 0.6755, 0.6865



Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 0.6445. Stop-Loss 0.6485. Take-Profit 0.6400, 0.6378, 0.6322, 0.6260, 0.6200, 0.6100

Buy Stop 0.6490. Stop-Loss 0.6445. Take-Profit 0.6515, 0.6525, 0.6535, 0.6600, 0.6635, 0.6665, 0.6755, 0.6865

 

[TifiaFX]

EUR/USD: negative dynamics persist

13/02/2020

According to the quarterly report submitted by the European Commission on Thursday, the eurozone's total GDP will grow by 1.2% in both 2020 and 2021. Thus, the European Commission confirmed the forecasts presented in November 2019.

Among the main risks, the European Commission indicated an outbreak of coronavirus and the uncertainty of US foreign trade policy.

The downward risks for the economic outlook were somewhat weakened after the conclusion of the first-phase trade agreement between China and the USA, as well as after the EU and Great Britain managed to avoid Brexit without a deal. However, uncertainty persists, and new sources of risk have emerged, one of which is coronavirus.

"The economy of the Eurozone may receive support from a softer and more stimulating fiscal policy, and will also be positively affected by soft financial conditions in some countries", the European Commission added.

The inflation forecast for 2020 was raised to 1.3% from 1.2%, and the forecast for 2021 - to 1.4% from 1.3%.

The head of the ECB Christine Lagarde also spoke in January about the negative impact on the economy of the Eurozone by the protectionist policy of the United States.

During a January 23 press conference, Lagarde said the Eurozone economy is facing "downside risks" due to increased protectionism, bearing in mind, among other things, the threat of US President Donald Trump to impose import duties on European cars.

Great Britain left the EU on January 31, however, internal political tensions and uncertainty in the Eurozone remain, but there are no significant signs of a recovery in Europe’s manufacturing sector.

It is possible that the ECB will be forced to resort to additional incentive measures, which will further weaken the euro. A recent ECB report suggests that rates could be reduced to -1% or even lower.

For the euro, a negative fundamental background prevails so far, creating the prerequisites for a further weakening of the euro.

EUR / USD is trading in a zone well below the key resistance level of 1.1128 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), and so far no recovery is expected. Long-term negative dynamics of EUR / USD remains, which speaks in favor of short positions.

To resume growth, the price needs to break through the nearest resistance levels of 1.0953 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart), 1.1035 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart).

Support Levels: 1.0850, 1.0800

Resistance Levels: 1.0895, 1.0953, 1.0995, 1.1035, 1.1092, 1.1128



Trading Recommendations

Sell Limit 1.0890, Sell Stop 1.0860. Stop-Loss 1.0910. Take-Profit 1.0800, 1.0700, 1.0600

Buy Stop 1.0955. Stop-Loss 1.0920. Take-Profit 1.0953, 1.0995, 1.1035, 1.1092, 1.1128

 

[TifiaFX]

WTI: long positions so far premature

14/02/2020

After falling sharply last month amid the spreading coronavirus infection in China, oil prices seem to have stabilized in February. Investor fears about the massive spread of coronavirus have declined. The rate of spread of the disease appears to be slowing. Expectations for China's economic recovery to recover in the 2nd quarter after falling in the 1st quarter due to coronavirus are supporting commodity prices, including oil.

At the beginning of the European session, WTI crude oil is trading near 51.50, above the short-term support level (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart).

The next target in case of continued growth will be the resistance levels 54.40 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart), 55.40 (Fibonacci level 38.2% of the upward correction to the fall from the highs of the last few years near 76.80 to the support level near 42.15). Nevertheless, talking about the resumption of the bull trend is still premature. If investors again begin to receive information about the growing number of patients with coronavirus in China, then global stock indices and commodity prices will again come under pressure. Coronavirus is still the main topic.

A signal for sales will be a breakdown of the support level 51.20 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart). Breakdown of the next important support level of 50.30 (Fibonacci level of 23.6%) will increase pressure on the price towards its further decline with a long-term goal at support level 42.15 (Fibonacci level of 0% and December 2018 lows).

Today, investors and oil market participants will pay attention to the publication (at 18:00 GMT) of the next weekly report of the American oilfield services company Baker Hughes. According to the latest report, the number of active drilling rigs in the US has grown over the past month by just 6 rigs, to 676 units. A decline in demand from China and an increase in US oil reserves will put pressure on US oil producers. If the Baker Hughes report indicates a decrease in the number of active rigs, this could give a short-term positive impetus to prices.

Support Levels: 51.20, 50.30, 49.00, 42.15

Resistance Levels: 53.00, 54.40, 55.40, 56.80, 59.50, 60.90, 63.50, 64.40, 66.50



Trading Recommendations

Sell Stop 50.90. Stop-Loss 52.10. Take-Profit 50.30, 49.00, 42.15

Buy Stop 52.10. Stop-Loss 50.90. Take-Profit 53.00, 54.40, 55.40, 56.80, 59.50, 60.90, 63.50, 64.40, 66.50

 

[TifiaFX]

GBP/USD: the pound strengthened. What's next?

17/02/2020

The pound strengthened sharply last week, while the GBP / USD pair rose to an intra-week high near 1.3069. The reason was the report of new rearrangements in the office of British Prime Minister Boris Johnson. New Finance Minister Rishi Sunak is a staunch supporter of Brexit, lower corporate taxes and capital gains taxes. According to some economists, its appointment may strengthen upward factors for the pound.

However, further growth of the pound and GBP / USD may be difficult.

In the long run, Brexit is still a negative factor for the pound. The UK is unlikely to receive significant preferences or benefits as a result of new international trade agreements.

At the same time, new data on inflation and employment in the UK expected this week may put downward pressure on the pound. These indices will be published on Tuesday and Wednesday (at 09:30 GMT).

Since the opening of today's trading day, GBP / USD has been trading in a narrow range near 1.3030, above important support levels 1.3025 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart), 1.3000 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart), 1.2850 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), while maintaining a positive the dynamics.

The breakdown of the local resistance level of 1.3069 will provoke further growth of GBP / USD towards the resistance levels of 1.3210 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the GBP / USD decline in the wave that began in July 2014 near the level of 1.7200), 1.3310 (EMA200 on the weekly chart).

In an alternative scenario, the breakdown of support levels 1.3025, 1.3000 will be a signal for sales and lower GBP / USD to support level 1.2850.

Today is the day off in the USA (Presidents' Day). In view of this, trading volumes during the American session will be low, which, however, does not exclude the possibility of a sharp short-term increase in volatility in the thin market.

Support Levels: 1.3025, 1.3000, 1.2850, 1.2400, 1.2200, 1.2000

Resistance Levels: 1.3069, 1.3210, 1.3310, 1.3510, 1.3960



Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 1.2985. Stop-Loss 1.3075. Take-Profit 1.2955, 1.2910, 1.2850

Buy Stop 1.3075. Stop-Loss 1.2985. Take-Profit 1.3100, 1.3210, 1.3310, 1.3510

 

[TifiaFX]

AUD/USD: downward trend prevails

18/02/2020

The publication of protocols from the February meeting of the RBA at the beginning of today's Asian session caused a drop in the Australian dollar and the pair AUD / USD. At a meeting on February 4, the RBA board decided to leave interest rates unchanged, at a record low of 0.75%. However, "there is reason to expect a lower key rate", said RBA head Philip Lowe. At the same time, “coronavirus is a new source of uncertainty”, the RBA management believes.

According to bank executives, "the epidemic poses a significant short-term economic risk for China and international trade flows, and therefore for the Australian economy".

Now, investors will follow the publication (on Wednesday and Thursday at 00:30 GMT) of data from the country's labor market in order to determine the further exchange rate of RBA interest rates and, accordingly, the dynamics of AUD. According to the forecast, unemployment is expected to increase in January to 5.2% from 5.1% in December. This is a negative factor for AUD.

Meanwhile, at the beginning of today's European session, AUD / USD is trading near 0.6680, below the key resistance level of 0.6880 (EMA200 on the daily chart), which indicates the prevalence of a downward global trend.

Only after growth into the zone above short-term important resistance levels of 0.6720 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart), 0.6780 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart) can we return to the consideration of long positions with the target at the resistance level 0.6880.

Negative dynamics of AUD / USD prevails, speaking in favor of its sales.

In case of resumption of decline, the targets will be the support levels of 0.6600, 0.6500, 0.6260, 0.6000 (lows of 2008 - 2009).

Support Levels: 0.6670, 0.6660, 0.6600, 0.6300

Resistance Levels: 0.6720, 0.6755, 0.6780, 0.6800, 0.6845, 0.6880, 0.6935



Trading Recommendations

Sell Stop 0.6665. Stop-Loss 0.6725. Take-Profit 0.6600, 0.6300, 0.6260

Buy Stop 0.6725. Stop-Loss 0.6665. Take-Profit 0.6755, 0.6780, 0.6800, 0.6845, 0.6880, 0.6935

 

[TifiaFX]

EUR/USD: when will the fall of the euro stop?

19/02/2020

Macro data published at the beginning of yesterday's European session testified to the growing fears of European investors regarding the spread of coronavirus in China and the worsening business climate in Germany and the Eurozone.

The ZEW Institute reported a fall in the index of economic expectations in Germany in February to 8.7 (against 26.7 in January and a forecast of 21.5) and an economic sentiment index in the Eurozone to 10.4 (against 25.6 in January and a forecast of 30).

The EUR / USD completed the last trading day near the level 1.0789, reaching the lowest level since April 2017.

However, a deeper decline in EUR / USD has not yet been observed. On Wednesday, the pair is trading in a narrow range near the critical level of 1.0800 in anticipation of new drivers, either for corrective growth or for further decline.

It is noteworthy that in the first half of today's trading day there is an increase in the euro in cross-pair with the pound. If the strengthening of the euro extends to other important cross-pairs, we can seriously consider the likelihood of resumption of growth and the EUR / USD.

The first signal to resume purchases of EUR / USD will be a breakdown of the short-term resistance level of 1.0873 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart).

So far, the long-term negative dynamics of EUR / USD. A breakdown of the local support level of 1.0790 will speak in favor of short positions and a decrease in EUR / USD towards the lows of March 2015 and the level of 1.0480 (Fibonacci level 0% of the upward correction to the fall of the pair from 1.3870 in May 2014 to 1.0480 reached in March 2015).

On Wednesday, investors will follow the publication (at 19:00 GMT) of the protocol from the January meeting of the Fed. In January, the Fed kept interest rates unchanged and signaled its intention to maintain them at their current level in the near future. The Fed also announced that it will continue to purchase treasury bonds in the 2nd quarter of 2020 and intervene in the repo markets. If the protocols contain new information signaling the Fed’s propensity for a softer policy, then the dollar, which has strengthened significantly in recent days, may decline, which will become a good positive driver for the so far correctional growth of EUR / USD.

Support Levels: 1.0790, 1.0800

Resistance Levels: 1.0815, 1.0873, 1.0900, 1.0945, 1.0990, 1.1080, 1.1115



Trading Recommendations

Sell Stop 1.0780. Stop-Loss 1.0825. Take-Profit 1.0700, 1.0600

Buy Stop 1.0825. Stop-Loss 1.0780. Take-Profit 1.0873, 1.0900, 1.0945, 1.0990, 1.1080

 

[TifiaFX]

S&P500: long positions are still relevant

20/02/2020

During today's Asian session, the S&P500 updated another record high near 3397.0 mark. Demand for US assets remains. In the current situation of the spread of coronavirus and the slowdown of the Chinese and global economies, the US economy looks most stable. During the January meeting, the Fed signaled increased optimism about the US economy. According to the minutes published Wednesday, Fed leaders "saw an improvement in the balance of risks for economic prospects compared to the previous meeting".

Demand for US assets is growing. So, according to data released last Tuesday, net purchases of US long-term securities by foreign investors in December amounted to $ 85.6 billion, which is $ 60 billion higher than forecast. Economists believe that in the second half of the year the results of American companies will improve.

This, along with expectations of a softer monetary policy by the Fed, creates the prerequisites for further growth of US stock indices.

So, the Dow Jones Industrial Average on Wednesday trades increased by 0.4% to 29348.00 points, the S&P 500 grew by 0.5%, to a new record high of 3386.00 points, the Nasdaq Composite jumped 0.9% to 9817.00, also a new record high.

In the event of a breakdown of the local resistance level 3397.0, the S&P500 growth is likely to continue.

In an alternative scenario and after the breakdown of short-term support levels of 3364.0 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart), 3306.0 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart), the S&P500 correctional decline may continue to the support level 3250.0 (the lower border of the ascending channel on the daily chart and the highs of 2019). However, only a breakdown of support levels 3025.0 and 2990.0 (Fibonacci level 38.2%) will increase the risks of breaking the bullish trend of S&P500.

Today, investors will pay attention to the publication (at 13:30 GMT) of weekly data on the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits and the Conference Board index for January (at 15:00 GMT). This index represents the combined value of 10 economic indicators related to employment, new orders, consumer confidence, housing, stock market prices, lending trends and interest spreads. According to the forecast, the index is expected to grow by +0.4%, which is also a positive factor for US stock indices and the dollar.

The S&P500 index maintains a long-term positive trend. Above the support levels 3364.0, 3335.0, long positions are preferred.

Support Levels: 3364.0, 3335.0, 3306.0, 3250.0, 3147.0, 3082.0, 3025.0, 2990.0

Resistance Levels: 3397.0, 3400.0



Trading Recommendations

Sell Stop 3347.0. Stop-Loss 3398.0. Targets 3335.0, 3306.0, 3250.0, 3147.0

Buy Stop 3398.0. Stop-Loss 3347.0. Goals 3450.0, 3490.0

 

[TifiaFX]

GBP/USD: downtrend risk increased

21/02/2020

According to Markit Economics, the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) in the UK manufacturing sector rose in February (51.9 against the forecast of 49.7 and 50.0 in January), reaching a 10-month high. The preliminary PMI for the UK services sector was forecast at 53.4 in February, but came out with a value slightly lower (53.3 against 53.9 in January).

Having received support from positive macro statistics, the pound strengthened, while the GBP / USD pair rose during the European session to an intraday high of 1.2951.

However, further growth of GBP / USD above the intraday high of 1.2951 did not follow. Investors are still cautious about positive macro data against the backdrop of Brexit and the spread of coronavirus in Asia.

The theme of coronavirus today again came to the fore. The growth in the number of new infected people in China and South Korea again raises concerns among investors, including the slowdown in global economic growth.

Economists also believe that the UK draft budget expected on March 11 will not contain plans for a significant fiscal stimulus to the economy, and the yield on UK 10-year government bonds by the 3rd quarter will fall by 40 basis points.

At the same time, the dollar continues to be in demand both as a defensive asset, and against the backdrop of positive macro statistics coming from the United States. Most likely, the DXY dollar index will finish in positive territory for the third week in a row.

Despite the current growth of the GBP / USD pair, the OsMA and Stochastic indicators on the daily and weekly charts switched to the side of the sellers, signaling the likelihood of a breakdown of the key support level of 1.2850 (EMA200 on the daily chart) and the resumption of the global GBP / USD downtrend.

GBP / USD has already broken through important short-term support levels of 1.3000 and 1.2962, which speaks in favor of short short-term positions with an immediate goal at the support level of 1.2850.

In an alternative scenario, and after the breakdown of resistance levels 1.2962 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart), 1.3000 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart) GBP / USD will resume upward trend and head towards the local resistance level 1.3069. Further growth of GBP / USD in the current situation is unlikely.

Support Levels: 1.2850, 1.2400, 1.2200, 1.2000

Resistance Levels: 1.2962, 1.3000, 1.3069, 1.3210, 1.3310, 1.3510, 1.3960



Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 1.2890. Stop-Loss 1.2970. Take-Profit 1.2850, 1.2400, 1.2200, 1.2000

Buy Stop 1.2970. Stop-Loss 1.2890. Take-Profit 1.3000, 1.3069, 1.3210, 1.3310, 1.3510, 1.3960

 

[TifiaFX]

EUR/USD: short positions

25/02/2020

Amid continued investor concerns about the spread of coronavirus in China and its impact on the European economy, the decline in EUR / USD resumed on Tuesday. According to economists, in the 1st quarter of Germany's GDP growth may slow due to a reduction in exports and supply shortages, including from China and to China. 10% of intermediate goods for German factories come to Germany from China, while China accounts for about 6% of German exports. In China, the coronavirus epidemic has already affected production, export, and consumption levels. Now the virus has reached northern Italy, where more than 50,000 local residents were quarantined last Sunday.

The coronavirus epidemic directly threatens global economic growth, since the supply chain of many international enterprises depends on the supply of intermediate and finished products from China. Economists have warned that the global economy could miss $1 trillion of GDP.

For this reason, the dollar is likely to win, as many investors pay attention to it as a defensive asset along with traditional defensive assets (government bonds, gold).

Published at the beginning of yesterday's European session, the positive macro data on Germany could not decisively change the negative attitude towards the euro by investors.

At the beginning of today's European session, the EUR / USD broke through the short-term support level of 1.0843 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart) and continues to decline towards recent multi-year lows near the 1.0775 mark reached last week.

Several factors of a fundamental and technical nature speak in favor of a further decline in EUR / USD towards the lows of March 2015 and the level of 1.0480 (Fibonacci level 0% of the upward correction to the fall of the pair from 1.3870 in May 2014 to 1.0480 reached in March 2015)

In this situation, short positions are preferable, even if the upward correction starts again. A signal for her will be a return to the zone above the resistance level of 1.0843.

Support Levels: 1.0800, 1.0775

Resistance Levels: 1.0843, 1.0873, 1.0900, 1.0945, 1.0990, 1.1100



Trading Recommendations

Sell by market. Stop-Loss 1.0880. Take-Profit 1.0775, 1.0700, 1.0600

Buy Stop 1.0880. Stop-Loss 1.0790. Take-Profit 1.0900, 1.0945, 1.0990, 1.1100

 

[TifiaFX]

DJIA: negativity prevails

26/02/2020

The positive mood of investors related to the signing of the “first phase” trade agreement between the US and China last month changed to a pessimistic one due to the spread of coronavirus outside of China, which could have an even greater negative impact on the global economy.

Earlier this month, Chinese President Xi Jinping assured US President Trump of China's intention to fulfill the obligations of a recently signed trade deal. At the same time, Jerome Powell, Chairman of the US Federal Reserve System, said that the rapid spread of the virus will inevitably affect the Chinese economy and may affect the US economy.

And so, investors' fears intensified on Tuesday after reports of the further spread of coronavirus and warnings of the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) about a potential pandemic.

The S&P 500 fell another 0.3% on Tuesday to 3138.00 points, while the Nasdaq Composite lost 2.8%, reaching 8966.00 points, losing growth compared to the beginning of the year. Last week, the DJIA was trading near 29528.0, which corresponds to record and absolute highs. But today, at the beginning of the European session, DJIA futures are trading near the 26900.0 mark, 9.6% below last week's highs.

Protective assets are again in active demand. On Wednesday, the yield on 10-year US government bonds fell at the beginning of the European session to 1.321% (against 1.473% at the end of last week and against 1.576% at the beginning of last week), which corresponds to the lows of 2016. Gold quotes also resumed growth after falling on Tuesday.

DJIA broke through the important support level of 27546.0 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart) and at the beginning of today's European session it is traded near 27070.0.

It is not excluded that the index may decline further to support levels of 26220.0 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of correction to the DJIA growth wave that began in February 2016 from 15500.0), 25200.0 (August lows and ЕМА144 on the weekly chart), 24600.0 (June 2019 lows).

However, only a breakdown of the support level of 24150.0 (EMA200 on the weekly chart and the Fibonacci level 38.2%) can break the DJIA long-term bullish trend.

Growth into the zone above the resistance level of 27546.0 will revive the positive dynamics of the DJIA and once again make long positions relevant.

Support Levels: 26700.0, 26220.0, 25200.0, 24600.0, 24150.0

Resistance Levels: 27546.0, 27900.0, 28160.0, 28630.0, 28840.0, 29528.0



Trading Scenarios

Buy Stop 27350.0. Stop-Loss 26700.0. Take-Profit 27546.0, 27900.0, 28160.0, 28630.0, 28840.0, 29528.0

Sell Stop 26700.0. Stop-Loss 27350.0. Take-Profit 26220.0, 25200.0, 24600.0, 24150.0

 

[TifiaFX]

Brent: short positions

27/02/2020

Amid falling global stock indices due to investors' fears about the increased risks of the coronavirus pandemic, oil prices continue to decline. On Wednesday, the price of Brent crude oil broke through the bottom line of the upward channel on the weekly chart, passing through the mark of 53.50, and continued to decline in the first half of today's trading day. At the beginning of today's European session, Brent crude is traded near 52.40, falling in price for the 5th day in a row.

Prices are also falling amid disagreements between OPEC and Russia over oil production restrictions. Next week, the OPEC+ coalition summit will be held in Vienna. Saudi Arabia insists on a further reduction in total production; however, these proposals did not find support from Russia. If OPEC+ fails to agree on an additional reduction in production volumes, this will lead to an even larger decline in oil prices.

The oil market is dominated by bearish sentiment.

The price may receive support on Friday if the next weekly report of the American oilfield services company Baker Hughes indicates a decrease in the number of active drilling rigs in the United States. However, in any case, this support will be very short-term and limited.

The downward trend prevails, pushing the price towards the December low of $50.00 per barrel. Only growth into the zone above the resistance levels of 62.50 (EMA200 on the daily chart), 63.90 (Fibonacci level 38.2%) will again make long-term long positions relevant.

A signal to start shopping can be a breakdown of the resistance levels 56.20 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart) and 56.90 (Fibonacci level 50% of downward correction in the wave of price growth from the level near the level of 27.10 to the highs of October 2018 near the level of 86.60 dollars per barrel). Short positions are preferred so far.

Support Levels: 52.00, 51.00, 50.00

Resistance Levels: 53.50, 56.20, 56.90, 58.60, 60.40, 61.80, 62.50, 63.90



Trading recommendations

Sell by market. Stop-Loss 54.10. Take-Profit 52.00, 51.00, 50.00

Buy Stop 54.10. Stop-Loss 52.10. Take-Profit 56.20, 56.90, 58.60, 60.40, 61.80, 62.50, 63.90

 

[TifiaFX]

S&P500: negative dynamics

28/02/2020

World and US stock indices continued to decline in the first half of today's trading day.

Last Thursday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell another 4.4% to 25766.00 points, the S&P 500 fell 4.4% to 2978.00 points, and the Nasdaq Composite fell 4.6% to 8566.00 points. All three indices fell more than 10% from their recent highs reached this month, moving to the territory of correction.

Due to the global spread of coronavirus, investors avoid risky assets and prefer protective assets such as government bonds and gold.

According to the latest data, the number of people infected with coronavirus worldwide exceeded 82,000, and the death toll was 2,800.

Pessimism of investors is dominant in financial markets, associated with expectations of a slowdown in the global economy due to coronavirus. At the beginning of the European session on Friday, the yield on 10-year US government bonds fell to 1.163% (against 1.505% at the end of last month), which corresponds to absolute record lows.

S&P500 has lost by now more than 15%, having dropped from absolute highs, where it was still 2 weeks ago.

The index broke through the most important long-term support levels 3080.0 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), 2990.0 (Fibonacci level 38.2% of the correction to the growth since December 2018 and the level of 2335.0) and continued to decline in the first half of today's trading day. In case of further decline, the targets will be the support levels of 2865.0 (Fibonacci level 50%), 2740.0 (Fibonacci level 61.8%), 2700.0 (ЕМА200 on the weekly chart).

The first signal for purchases may be a breakdown of the resistance levels of 2990.0 (Fibonacci level 38.2%), 3025.0 (highs of July 2019), and after the S&P500 returns to the zone above the resistance levels of 3080.0, 3147.0 (Fibonacci level 23.6%), the index will continue to grow , and the long-term bull trend will resume.

Support Levels: 2865.0, 2740.0, 2700.0

Resistance Levels: 2990.0, 3025.0, 3080.0, 3147.0



Trading Recommendations

Sell Stop 2875.0. Stop-Loss 2995.0. Objectives 2865.0, 2740.0, 2700.0

Buy Stop 2995.0. Stop-Loss 2875.0. Objectives 3025.0, 3080.0, 3147.0, 3200.0, 3400.0, 3450.0, 3490.0