Tifia Daily Market Analytics

[TifiaFX]

GBP/USD: Market Expectations
14/01/2018
On Tuesday, a vote will be taken in the British Parliament on a Brexit deal with the EU. As you know, British Prime Minister Theresa May made a Brexit deal with the EU at the end of November, which caused a flurry of criticism from British parliamentarians.
Probably, the parliament will vote against the proposed agreement and the deadline for the British withdrawal from the EU will be postponed from March 29 to a later date. The expected failure of the Brexit vote is, in general, negative news for the pound. However, the effect of this factor on the dynamics of the pound will most likely be short-term, since it has already been taken into account in the quotes.
Below the key resistance level of 1.3035 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart) and due to important fundamental factors, GBP / USD remains under pressure.
In case of breakdown of the support level of 1.2735 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart) GBP / USD will go into the descending channel on the daily chart and to the support levels of 1.2600 (June 2017 minimums), 1.2485, 1.2365.
The main trend is still bearish. Below the key resistance levels of 1.3215 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the decline of the GBP / USD in the wave that started in July 2014 near the 1.7200 level), 1.3035 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart) negative dynamics prevail. Short positions are preferred.
Support Levels: 1.2735, 1.2700, 1.2670, 1.2600, 1.2485, 1.2365, 1.2110, 1.2000
Resistance Levels: 1.2955, 1.3035, 1.3125, 1.3215, 1.3300, 1.3470, 1.3740

Trading Scenarios
Sell Stop 1.2790. Stop Loss 1.2880. Take-Profit 1.2735, 1.2700, 1.2670, 1.2600, 1.2485, 1.2365
Buy Stop 1.2880. Stop Loss 1.2790. Take-Profit 1.2955, 1.3035, 1.3125, 1.3215

 

[TifiaFX]

EUR/USD: Trading Scenarios
01/15/2019
A report published on Tuesday showed that Germany’s GDP growth over the past year was 1.5% after a 2.2% increase in 2017. The data suggest a substantial recession risk in the German economy. The minimum annual GDP growth since 2013 has been recorded.
The slowdown in the German economy may cause weakening results for other European countries that supply components for the German automotive industry and other products.
Hard Brexit, the escalation of trade conflicts and factors of political instability in the Eurozone are the main threats to the European economy.

EUR / USD pair declined after published data, closely approaching to the support level of 1.1420 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart, ЕМА50 on the daily chart).
Below the key resistance levels of 1.1525 (EMA144), 1.1575 (EMA200 on the daily chart), the downward trend prevails.
A breakdown of support levels of 1.1420, 1.1400 will return the EUR / USD pair to a long-term bearish trend. Long-term goals of decline are support levels of 1.1285 (Fibonacci level of 23.6% of the correction to a fall from 1.3900 level that began in May 2014), 1.1270 (December lows), 1.1210 (November and year lows), 1.1120 (bottom line of the downward channel on the daily chart, lows of June 2017).
Support Levels: 1.1420, 1.1400, 1.1350, 1.1285, 1.1215, 1.1120
Resistance Levels: 1.1525, 1.1575, 1.1700, 1.1780

Trading recommendations
Sell Stop 1.1390. Stop-Loss 1.1490. Take-Profit 1.1350, 1.1285, 1.1215, 1.1120
Buy Stop 1.1490. Stop-Loss 1.1390. Take-Profit 1.1525, 1.1575, 1.1700, 1.1780

 

[TifiaFX]

GBP/USD: Current Dynamics
01/16/2019
In December, the annual rate of consumer price inflation in the UK slowed down. According to official data released on Wednesday, the UK consumer price index (CPI) rose by 2.1% in December compared with the same period last year, after rising 2.3% in November. The retail price index (RPI) +0.4% m/m, +2.7% y/y (the forecast was +0.5% m/m, +2.9% y/y), the producer selling prices index (Output PPI) -0.3% m/m, +2.5% y/y (the forecast was 0% m/m and +2.9% y/y). The data can be called ambiguous. On the one hand, they point to an increase in inflation, while inflation remains above the target level of the Bank of England at 2%. But, on the other hand, the data indicate a slowdown in inflation.
The publication of the data remained almost unnoticed, as all market attention focused on Brexit. The proposed by Prime Minister Theresa May, the plan of the deal was rejected on Tuesday by parliament. The vote in the British Parliament on the confidence of Theresa May will begin at 19:00 (GMT). With the opening of the trading day, GBP/USD is moderately decreasing, trading in the middle of the European session near the level of 1.2850.
Probably, Theresa May will be able to defend their post. However, the uncertainty of the future relationship between the EU and the UK is a negative factor for the pound. "Hard" Brexit without a trade agreement with the EU countries will deal a severe blow to the UK economy.
Support and resistance levels
The pound remains under pressure due to the domestic political crisis in the UK and Brexit.
The main trend of GBP/USD is still bearish. Below the key resistance levels of 1.3210 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the decline of the GBP/USD in the wave that started in July 2014 near the level of 1.7200), 1.3030 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart) negative dynamics prevail. Short positions are preferred.
Support Levels: 1.2750, 1.2700, 1.2670, 1.2600, 1.2485, 1.2365, 1.2110, 1.2000
Resistance Levels: 1.2950, 1.3030, 1.3125, 1.3210, 1.3300, 1.3470, 1.3740

Trading scenarios
Sell Stop 1.2820. Stop Loss 1.2920. Take-Profit 1.2750, 1.2700, 1.2670, 1.2600, 1.2485, 1.2365
Buy Stop 1.2920. Stop Loss 1.2820. Take-Profit 1.2950, 1.3030, 1.3125, 1.3210

 

[TifiaFX]

EUR/USD: good reasons are needed for the Eurodollar growth
01/17/2019
Current situation
The updated data, published on Thursday, confirmed the forecasts of economists that in December annual inflation in the Eurozone amounted to 1.6% against 1.9% in November. In conjunction with the recently published weak data, inflation indicators indicate a decrease in the likelihood that the ECB will be able to increase the rate in 2019.
Against the background of the situation with Brexit, the ECB is likely to take a waiting position at the next meeting to be held next week. January 24 will be published by the ECB decision on rates. Probably, the ECB will also express concern about the worsening growth prospects of the economy.
On Tuesday, ECB President Mario Draghi said that the European economy still needs substantial stimulation. Investors considered this a signal for a possible extension of the QE program.
At the same time, the Beige Book, published Wednesday, drew a positive picture for the US economy. “Overall, the outlook remains positive”, the report says.
Thus, according to economists, the prospects for a substantial strengthening of the euro and the growth of EUR / USD look inconclusive. Probably further weakening of the Eurodollar. For the growth of the pair EUR / USD we need good reasons and a significant weakening of the dollar.
Support and resistance levels
Despite the corrective growth of EUR / USD, which began in mid-November, negative dynamics prevail below the resistance level of 1.1570 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart).
In case of resumption of reduction, the nearest targets will be the support levels of 1.1350, 1.1285 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the fall from 1.3900 level, which began in May 2014), 1.1270 (December lows), 1.1215 (November and year lows).
An alternative scenario involves the breakdown of the short-term resistance level of 1.1440 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart) and the resumption of corrective growth. However, the growth of EUR / USD will be limited by the resistance level of 1.1570.
Support Levels: 1.1350, 1.1285, 1.1215
Resistance Levels: 1.1400, 1.1417, 1.1440, 1.1520, 1.1570, 1.1680, 1.1780

Trading recommendations
Sell in the market. Stop-Loss 1.1450. Take-Profit 1.1350, 1.1285, 1.1215
Buy Stop 1.1450. Stop-Loss 1.1390. Take-Profit 1.1520, 1.1570, 1.1700, 1.1780

 

[TifiaFX]

GBP/USD: Market Expectations
01/18/2019

The pound is falling on Friday after strong growth on the eve amid rumors about a possible postponement of the UK exit from the EU, as well as the possibility of a second Brexit referendum.
The past week’s vote in the British Parliament on the Brexit deal with the EU failed for British Prime Minister Theresa May, and now she will have to submit a new plan on Monday. Most likely, it will differ little from the previous plan.
Brexit uncertainty is getting stronger, putting pressure on the pound. According to the National Bureau of Statistics (ONS), presented on Friday, retail sales in the UK decreased by 0.9% in December compared with the previous month. This report was another signal that the growth momentum of the UK economy faded in the last three months of 2018. According to economists, more stringent credit conditions, as well as the uncertainty of future UK relations with the EU have a negative impact on consumer confidence.
Meanwhile, the dollar remains stable and attractive, despite the domestic political crisis in the United States. Investors are worried about slowing global economic growth, trade conflicts, market volatility, partial suspension of government agencies and weak production data, and Fed officials said they would continue to be patient with rising interest rates.
On Friday, between 14:15 and 15:00 (GMT), important macro data from the United States will be published, including industrial production data for December and consumer confidence for January. Overall, the data is expected to be strong, despite a relative decline of values. The data should support the dollar, which is still in demand against the background of domestic political problems in Europe, as well as a slowdown in the growth of the Chinese economy due to the trade conflict between the US and China.

On Friday, GBP / USD is falling, bargaining at the beginning of the European session near the level of 1.2940, below the resistance levels of 1.3030 (EMA200), 1.2950 (EMA144 on the daily chart). A break of the short-term support level of 1.2770 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart) will confirm the scenario for the resumption of the bearish trend and direct GBP / USD to the support levels of 1.2600 (June 2017 lows), 1.2485, 1.2365.
The main trend is still bearish. Below the key resistance levels of 1.3210 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the decline of the GBP / USD pair in the wave that started in July 2014 near the level of 1.7200), 1.3030 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart) negative dynamics prevail.
Support Levels: 1.2770, 1.2700, 1.2670, 1.2600, 1.2485, 1.2365, 1.2110, 1.2000
Resistance Levels: 1.2950, 1.3030, 1.3125, 1.3210, 1.3300, 1.3470, 1.3740

Trading scenarios
Sell in the market. Stop Loss 1.3010. Take-Profit 1.2770, 1.2700, 1.2670, 1.2600, 1.2485, 1.2365
Buy Stop 1.3010. Stop Loss 1.2920. Take-Profit 1.3030, 1.3125, 1.3210

 

[TifiaFX]

EUR/USD: support and resistance levels
01/21/2019

Since mid-November, EUR / USD has been rising in the upward channel on the daily chart, the upper limit of which is above the key resistance level of 1.1565 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart). Last week, from the level of 1.1565 there was a rebound, and the pair could not develop an upward trend. EUR / USD declines again, trading on Monday below the important short-term resistance level of 1.1415 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart, EMA50 on the daily chart).
The immediate targets for the decline in case of breakdown of the local support level of 1.1350 will be the support levels of 1.1300, 1.1285 (Fibonacci 23.6% of the correction to the fall from 1.3900, which began in May 2014), 1.1270 (December lows), 1.1215 (November and year lows) .
Breakdown of the short-term resistance level of 1.1415 will be a signal for the realization of the scenario for the resumption of growth of EUR / USD. However, below the resistance level of 1.1565 negative dynamics prevail. Short positions are preferred.
On Thursday, the next ECB meeting will be held on monetary policy issues. Most likely, the ECB will keep current key interest rates at the same level. The basic interest rate will remain at the same level of 0%; the ECB deposit rate for commercial banks is also likely to remain unchanged at -0.4%.
As the ECB head Mario Draghi said last week, the recent economic indicators were worse than expected, and the European economy still needs substantial stimulation. If Mario Draghi reiterates this possibility in the coming months, the euro will decline.

Support Levels: 1.1350, 1.1300, 1.1285, 1.1215
Resistance Levels: 1.1400, 1.1415, 1.1515, 1.1565, 1.1680, 1.1780

Trading Scenarios
Sell in the market. Stop-Loss 1.1420. Take-Profit 1.1350, 1.1285, 1.1215
Buy Stop 1.1420. Stop-Loss 1.1340. Take-Profit 1.1500, 1.1515, 1.1565

 

[TifiaFX]

GBP/USD: macro statistics remain in the background
01/22/2019
Current dynamics
British Prime Minister Theresa May on Monday presented her new plan for secession from the European Union, which is very similar to the previous one.
The leader of the Labor Party of Great Britain, Jeremy Corbin, said that "it really starts to sound like something like Groundhog Day" and called for a vote in the House of Commons on the second Brexit referendum.
In Brussels, it was repeatedly repeated that the transaction could not be subjected to significant changes. "This withdrawal agreement cannot be changed", said Irish Foreign Minister Simon Coveney on Monday.
It seems that the situation again comes to a standstill, and the likelihood of "hard" Brexit is growing every day. This puts pressure on the pound, not allowing the uptrend to develop above the key resistance levels of 1.2955, 1.3030.
According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics of the United Kingdom published on Tuesday, the number of employed citizens in the period from September to November increased by 141,000 compared with the previous three-month period, while the employment rate reached a record 75.8%.
The Bank of England expects that a decrease in free resources in the labor market will contribute to wage growth and keeping inflation above the target level in the coming years. However, until the situation with Brexit is resolved, the Bank of England will remain neutral in relation to changes in monetary policy, despite the high inflation rate in the country after the Brexit referendum held in June 2016.
Despite the failure of the Brexit vote in the British parliament, GBP / USD continues to develop an upward correction, trading above the important short-term support levels of 1.2860 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart), 1.2785 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart).
However, GBP / USD remains below key resistance levels of 1.2955 (EMA144 on the daily chart), 1.3030 (EMA200 on the daily chart).
Above the resistance level of 1.3030, GBP / USD growth is unlikely. The pound remains under pressure due to the domestic political crisis in the UK and Brexit.
In the event of a breakdown of the support level of 1.2785, the GBP / USD will go into the downstream channels on the daily and weekly charts to the support levels of 1.2600 (June 2017 lows), 1.2485, 1.2365. The main trend is still bearish. Below the key resistance levels of 1.3210 (Fibonacci 23.6% of the correction to the decline of the GBP / USD pair in the wave that started in July 2014 near 1.7200), 1.3030 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart) negative dynamics prevail and short positions are preferable.
Support Levels: 1.2860, 1.2785, 1.2700, 1.2670, 1.2600, 1.2485, 1.2365, 1.2110, 1.2000
Resistance Levels: 1.2955, 1.3030, 1.3125, 1.3210, 1.3300, 1.3470, 1.3740

Trading recommendations
Sell in the market. Stop Loss 1.3040. Take-Profit 1.2860, 1.2785, 1.2700, 1.2670, 1.2600, 1.2485, 1.2365
Buy Stop 1.2930. Stop Loss 1.2850. Take-Profit 1.2955, 1.3030

 

[TifiaFX]

NZD/USD: New Zealand dollar strengthened on Wednesday
01/23/2019
Current Dynamics
As the Statistics Bureau of New Zealand reported on Wednesday, in the 4th quarter of 2018, consumer prices increased by 0.1% compared to the 3rd quarter, and the annual increase in consumer prices was 1.9%. The forecast was 0% and + 1.8%, respectively.
At the same time, as noted by the Bureau of Statistics, the increase in prices for domestic goods turned out to be quite high, reaching 0.7% compared with the previous quarter (the forecast was + 0.4%). The annual increase in prices for these goods was 2.7%.
According to economists, the published data give reason to expect further growth in domestic inflation. This is a positive factor for the New Zealand currency, as talk about the possibility of lowering the rate of the RBNZ in February subsided.
The New Zealand dollar rose after the publication of data on inflation, and the NZD / USD pair jumped to the level of 0.6800, through which the strong resistance level passes (200-period moving average on the daily chart).
Nevertheless, one should not expect a stronger strengthening of the New Zealand dollar.
Economists continue to point out signs of slowing economic growth and stick to the previous forecast, suggesting that the RBNZ will lower its key interest rate in 2019. But even if this does not happen, the need to raise interest rates will not arise soon. And this is a constraining fundamental factor for the further strengthening of the New Zealand currency.
The slowdown in the growth of the Chinese economy and the decline in imports to China represents a direct threat to the New Zealand economy, which can be expressed in a decline in the volume of export earnings and the level of New Zealand GDP. Nevertheless, the New Zealand dollar so far remains stable, despite the deterioration of the international trading environment.
Meanwhile, the US dollar is moderately declining on Wednesday. The DXY dollar index, which tracks the US currency against a basket of 6 other major currencies, has grown over the past four trading days by 1.0%, exceeding the 96.00 mark. However, on Wednesday, DXY futures traded near the 95.88 mark, while maintaining a long-term positive trend.
Trading scenarios
Since the beginning of the month, NZD / USD has been growing, attempting to consolidate above the key level of 0.6800 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart). The breakdown of the strong resistance level of 0.6860 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the upward correction to the global wave of the pair's decline from the level of 0.8800, started in July 2014; the lows of the wave are near the level of 0.6260) could mean breaking the bearish trend of NZD / USD, which began in April 2018. In this case, NZD / USD will go towards the resistance level of 0.7100 (ЕМА200 on the weekly chart).
An alternative scenario will be associated with the breakdown of the support level of 0.6765 (EMA144 on the daily chart and EMA200 on the 4-hour chart), which confirms the return of NZD / USD to a bearish trend.
Below the support level of 0.6765 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart) short positions are again preferred.
Support levels: 0.6765, 0.6708, 0.6655, 0.6515, 0.6430
Resistance levels: 0.6800, 0.6860, 0.6970, 0.7100

Trading Scenarios
Sell Stop 0.6760. Stop Loss 0.6810. Take-Profit 0.6710, 0.6655, 0.6515, 0.6430
Buy Stop 0.6810. Stop Loss 0.6760. Take-Profit 0.6860, 0.6970, 0.7000, 0.7100

 

[TifiaFX]

EUR/USD: Support and Resistance Levels
24/01/2019
The focus of traders today is the ECB meeting and its decision on the interest rate and the QE program. The ECB's decision on interest rates will be published at 12:15 (GMT), and the ECB press conference will begin at 13:30. The ECB is likely to keep current key interest rates unchanged today. The basic interest rate will remain at the same level of 0%; the ECB deposit rate for commercial banks is also likely to remain unchanged at -0.4%. If the ECB head Mario Draghi again signals the extension or expansion of the QE program, the fall of the Eurodollar will be even stronger.
The immediate targets for the decline are support levels of 1.1300, 1.1285 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the fall from 1.3900, which began in May 2014), 1.1270 (December lows), 1.1215 (November and year lows). Negative dynamics prevail.
The alternative scenario assumes the resumption of correctional growth with targets at resistance levels of 1.1510, 1.1560 (EMA200 on the daily chart). In this case, the breakdown of the short-term resistance level of 1.1405 will be a signal for the implementation of this scenario.
Support Levels: 1.1300, 1.1285, 1.1215, 1.1120, 1.1000
Resistance Levels: 1.1392, 1.1405, 1.1510, 1.1560, 1.1680, 1.1780

Trading recommendations
Sell in the market. Stop-Loss 1.1410. Take-Profit 1.1300, 1.1285, 1.1215, 1.1120
Buy Stop 1.1410. Stop-Loss 1.1330. Take-Profit 1.1510, 1.1560

 

[TifiaFX]

WTI: Market Expectations
25/01/2019
The oil market traders seem to be confused due to a number of conflicting fundamental factors. The acute political crisis in Venezuela, which has the world's largest oil reserves on the one hand, and the growth of commercial oil reserves in the United States last week, as well as ongoing trade conflicts and a slowdown in the global economy, on the other hand, create multidirectional oil price vectors.
On Friday (19:00 GMT), a weekly report from the American oilfield services company Baker Hughes on the number of active oil drilling rigs in the United States will be published. Their number declined again in the previous week and currently stands at 852 units against the maximum of 887 units reached at the end of 2018. However, there is a recovery in oil prices after falling in the 4th quarter of 2018 (oil prices in the end of December hit bottom near the mark of 42.00 dollars per barrel of WTI crude oil). Rising oil prices create an incentive for American oil companies to increase production, which, in turn, is a deterrent to rising oil prices. The increase in the number of drilling rigs is a negative factor for oil prices.
WTI crude oil prices reached important resistance levels near $ 52.75 per barrel (ЕМА50 on the daily chart, upper line of the downward channel on the daily chart).
OsMA and Stochastic indicators on the 1-hour, 4-hour, daily charts recommend short positions.
Returning to the zone below 52.75 creates the risk of a resumption of the bearish trend that began in early October 2018.
Also, in the current price dynamics it is possible to distinguish a range with upper and lower lines passing through the marks 54.10, 50.25. Exit from this range can also determine the direction of further price movement.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support Levels: 52.00, 51.60, 50.25, 50.00, 49.00, 46.00, 42.20
Resistance Levels: 52.75, 54.10, 57.00, 57.80, 58.50, 60.00

Trading scenarios
Sell Stop 51.50. Stop Loss 54.20. Take-Profit 50.00, 49.00, 46.00, 42.00
Buy Stop 54.20. Stop Loss 51.50. Take-Profit 55.30, 56.60, 57.00, 57.80, 58.50, 59.40, 60.00

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

 

[TifiaFX]

EUR/USD: an important week for the dollar has begun
01/28/2019
Current situation
The focus of traders on the new week began will be the Fed meeting, the publication of data from the US labor market in January, as well as a vote in the British parliament on option "B" of the Brexit deal.
After the last ECB meeting on Thursday, investors were convinced that the ECB will not raise rates in the coming months and, as a maximum, until mid-2020.
The ECB left its interest rates and monetary policy unchanged, and the head of the ECB, Mario Draghi, reported the prevalence of downside risks to the Eurozone economy.
At the same time, the USA also faces problems of domestic and foreign economic nature.
Partial suspension of the US government has had a negative impact on consumer and producer sentiment indicators. It is also likely that the suspension of the work of state institutions had a negative impact on the growth of the US economy in the 1st quarter of 2019.
Last week, the dollar index DXY, reflecting its value against a basket of 6 currencies, fell by 0.5% to 95.50.
Probably, the Fed will not change its monetary policy at a meeting to be held on Tuesday and Wednesday. This will support the US stock markets, but may adversely affect the dollar quotes.

Trading scenarios
Meanwhile, the EUR / USD holds positions reached last Friday near the important level of 1.1400 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart, ЕМА50 on the daily chart).
Indicators OsMA and Stochastic on the 1-hour, 4-hour, daily charts recommend long positions.
In the current situation, long positions with targets at resistance levels of 1.1500 (EMA144 on the daily chart), 1.1560 (EMA200 on the daily chart) look preferable.
The alternative scenario assumes a resumption of the decline. The signal for the development of this scenario will be the breakdown of support levels 1.1400, 1.1383 (ЕМА200 on 1-hour chart) with targets at support levels 1.1300, 1.1285 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the fall from 1.3900 level, started in May 2014), 1.1270 (December lows), 1.1215 (November and year lows).
Support Levels: 1.1400, 1.1383, 1.1350, 1.1300, 1.1285, 1.1215, 1.1120, 1.1000
Resistance Levels: 1.1500, 1.1560, 1.1680, 1.1780

Trading scenarios
Sell Stop 1.1375. Stop-Loss 1.1430. Take-Profit 1.1350, 1.1300, 1.1285, 1.1215, 1.1120
Buy Stop 1.1430. Stop-Loss 1.1375. Take-Profit 1.1500, 1.1560

 

[TifiaFX]

USD/CHF: dollar is under pressure
Current dynamics
01/29/2019
The dollar is moderately declining on Tuesday. The DXY dollar index, which tracks the US currency against a basket of 6 other major currencies, has been falling since the opening of today's trading day. At the beginning of the European trading session, futures for the DXY index traded near the 95.35 mark, 9 points lower than the opening price of the trading day.
On Tuesday, investors will wait for the outcome of the vote in the British Parliament on the plan "B" about Brexit, and on Wednesday - the outcome of the meeting of the US Federal Reserve.
Probably, the Fed will keep the current monetary policy unchanged. If Fed Chairman Jerome Powell again signals a cautious approach to further tightening the Fed’s monetary policy, the dollar will be under pressure. Conversely, Powell’s harsh rhetoric will support the dollar.

At the same time, signals appeared to continue the decline of the pair USD / CHF.
Indicators OsMA and Stochastic on the daily chart moved to the side of sellers.
A breakout of the important short-term support level of 0.9910 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart) will confirm a decline signal with targets at the support levels of 0.9875 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), 0.9765 (ЕМА200 on the weekly chart), 0.9745 (Fibonacci 50% of the upward correction to the last global the wave of decline since December 2016 and from the level of 1.0300), 0.9720 (January lows).
The breakdown of the resistance level of 0.9930 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart) will return the USD / CHF momentum for further growth. Above the support level of 0.9875, long-term positive dynamics of USD / CHF remains.
Support levels: 0.9910, 0.9875, 0.9800, 0.9765, 0.9745, 0.9720, 0.9650, 0.9615, 0.9545
Resistance Levels: 0.9930, 0.9970, 0.9990, 1.0040, 1.0090, 1.0130

Trading Scenarios
Sell Stop 0.9890. Stop Loss 0.9940. Take-Profit 0.9875, 0.9800, 0.9765, 0.9745, 0.9720, 0.9650, 0.9615, 0.9545
Buy Stop 0.9940. Stop Loss 0.9890. Take-Profit 0.9970, 0.9990, 1.0040, 1.0090, 1.0130

 

[TifiaFX]

AUD/USD: Market Expectations
30/01/2019
In December, US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell announced the central bank’s intention to be patient this year in deciding to raise interest rates, taking into account the turbulence seen in financial markets over the past few weeks about the problems of global economic growth. “The US economy is strong”, said Powell. “The main source of concern is global growth”.
If Jerome Powell again signals a cautious approach to further tightening the Fed’s monetary policy, the dollar will be under pressure. Powell’s harsh rhetoric, which is less likely, will support the dollar.
According to the quotations of futures on the Fed's rates, investors estimate the probability of a rate hike in the current year at 18%.
The Fed's decision will be published on Wednesday at 19:00 (GMT), and the Fed’s press conference will begin at 19:30.
At the same time, the Australian dollar received support today after, during the Asian session, the Australian Bureau of Statistics reported a rise in Australia's consumer price index (CPI) in the 4th quarter by 0.5% compared with the previous quarter, and by 1,8% in annual terms (the forecast was +0.4% +1.7%, respectively).
In general, the long-term bearish trend AUD / USD is still in force. In the long run, short positions are preferable. The reached local maxima near the 0.7200 mark probably provide a good opportunity to enter a short position on AUD / USD.
Breakdown of the support level 0.7150 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart, ЕМА50 on the daily chart) will return AUD / USD to the inside of the descending channel on the daily chart and will cause the resumption of decline with long-term goals at support levels of 0.6910 (lows of September 2015), 0.6830 (2016 lows).
Below support level 0.7150, short positions are preferable.
An alternative scenario, implying the development of an upward correction, suggests an increase in AUD / USD to resistance levels of 0.7245 (ЕМА144 on the daily chart), 0.7295. Above the resistance level of 0.7295 AUD / USD growth is unlikely.
Support Levels: 0.7150, 0.7100, 0.7085, 0.7025
Resistance Levels: 0.7200, 0.7245, 0.7295, 0.7385, 0.7460

Trading scenarios
Sell in the market. Stop Loss 0.7210. Take-Profit 0.7150, 0.7100, 0.7085, 0.7025, 0.6910, 0.6830
Buy Stop 0.7210. Stop Loss 0.7140. Take-Profit 0.7245, 0.7295, 0.7385, 0.7460

 

[TifiaFX]

EUR/USD: the dollar fell after the Fed decision
01/31/2019
Current situation
At the regular meeting the ECB last Thursday kept its current monetary policy unchanged. ECB President Mario Draghi reported on the prevalence of downside risks for the Eurozone economy, including protectionism in international trade and geopolitical tensions. Earlier, the central bank noted a general balance of risks.
Last Wednesday, the Fed also did not change its monetary policy, maintaining interest rates at the same level.
The cautious position of the US Federal Reserve and the statements of its head Jerome Powell that "the arguments in favor of raising rates have weakened a bit", raised the EUR / USD to a 3-week high near the 1.1515 mark.
Powell reiterated that future policy will be “completely dependent on data”.
Market participants expect the Fed will not raise rates this year.
Now, after the statements of Powell, data from the US labor market, expected on Friday, will attract increased attention of market participants. Data worse than the forecast values and data for December will weaken the likelihood of further tightening of monetary policy and adversely affect the dollar quotes.
From the news today it is worth paying attention to the publication (from 13:30 to 15:00 GMT) of US macro data: data on unemployment applications last week and sales of new homes in November. Positive macro data will provide short-term support for the dollar. Conversely, weak data will adversely affect the dollar quotes and support the EUR / USD pair, which is falling on Thursday after the publication of the weaker-than-expected 4-quarter Eurozone GDP data. According to Eurostat, in the 4th quarter, Eurozone GDP grew by +0.2% (+1.2% in annual terms). Thus, the GDP growth in the Eurozone in 2018 was 1.8% versus 2.4% in 2017. The data again indicate a slowdown in the European economy in 2018.
Trading scenarios
Meanwhile, the EUR / USD holds positions reached last Thursday near an important resistance level of 1.1500 (EMA144 on the daily chart).
The OsMA and Stochastic indicators on the 4-hour, daily charts still recommend long positions.
In the current situation, long positions with targets at resistance levels of 1.1500 (EMA144 on the daily chart), 1.1550 (EMA200 on the daily chart) look preferable.
The alternative scenario assumes a resumption of the decline. The signal for the development of this scenario will be the breakdown of support levels 1.1418 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart), 1.1410 with targets at support levels 1.1300, 1.1285 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the fall from 1.3900 level, which began in May 2014), 1.1270 (December lows), 1.1215 (November and year lows).
Support Levels: 1.1418, 1.1410, 1.1350, 1.1300, 1.1285, 1.1215, 1.1120
Resistance Levels: 1.1500, 1.1550, 1.1680, 1.1780

Trading scenarios
Sell Stop 1.1460. Stop Loss 1.1510. Take-Profit 1.1410, 1.1350, 1.1300, 1.1285, 1.1215, 1.1120
Buy Stop 1.1510. Stop-Loss 1.1460. Take-Profit 1.1550, 1.1680, 1.1780

 

[TifiaFX]

XAU/USD: on the eve of NFP publication
01/02/2019
The dollar is falling on Friday, and gold quotes continue to rise. Investors are waiting for publication (at 13:30 GMT) data from the US labor market in January. These data (along with data on GDP and inflation) are crucial for the central bank, including the Fed, in determining the direction and pace of monetary policy.
Strong performance is expected, despite the fact that the number of new jobs in the non-agricultural sector of the US economy in January increased by 165,000 (after a growth in the same period in December by 312,000). The growth in the number of jobs above 150,000 per month is a good indicator. At the same time, unemployment will remain at the lowest levels for many years (3.9%).
If the data is confirmed, the dollar may receive short-term support and strengthen. More important for the further dynamics of the dollar and the price of gold is that the Fed has signaled a pause in the process of further raising interest rates. Last Wednesday, the Fed kept the current monetary policy unchanged, and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said that "there was a little less reason to raise rates", and future policies would "completely depend on data".
A more cautious monetary policy of the Fed, as well as in a situation of worsening growth prospects for the world economy and international trade conflicts, political struggle in Washington, attenuation of fiscal stimulus will help to maintain the demand for gold and the continued growth of its quotes.
However, during the publication of data from the US labor market, a surge in volatility is expected in trading across the entire financial market. Probably more cautious investors would prefer to stay out of the market during this time period.

Meanwhile, the XAU / USD pair is trading near multi-month highs and a mark of 1320.00, through which the upper line of the ascending channel on the daily chart passes. There is a strong positive impulse, and in case of continued growth, the targets are resistance levels of 1357.00 (2017 highs), 1370.00 (start of a decline wave and Fibonacci level 100%), 1375.00 (2016 highs).
An alternative scenario involves the breakdown of support levels of 1283.00 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart), 1277.00 and the resumption of the bearish gold trend.
Below the support level of 1255.00 short positions will become preferable again.
So far, long positions are preferred.
Support Levels: 1305.00, 1283.00, 1277.00, 1265.00, 1255.00, 1248.00, 1234.00, 1220.00, 1197.00, 1185.00, 1160.00
Resistance Levels: 1327.00, 1357.00, 1365.00, 1370.00, 1375.00

Trading scenarios
Sell Stop 1297.00. Stop Loss 1307.00. Take-Profit 1283.00, 1277.00, 1265.00, 1255.00, 1248.00, 1234.00, 1220.00, 1197.00, 1185.00, 1160.00
Buy Stop 1328.00. Stop Loss 1304.00. Take-Profit 1357.00, 1365.00, 1370.00, 1375.00

 

[TifiaFX]

AUD/USD: RBA will keep current interest rate. Trading scenarios
04/02/2019
The US dollar is trading higher on Monday, and the DXY dollar index futures at the beginning of the European session is at 95.46, 12 points higher than the opening price of the trading day.
As reported last Friday by the US Department of Labor, the number of non-agricultural jobs increased by 304,000 in January, while the average hourly wage in the private sector increased by 3.2% from the previous year. The forecast was +170,000 jobs. Despite the fact that unemployment rose to 4% from 3.9%, it still remains at its lowest level in the last 10 years. Investors considered the report to be generally positive, which gave the US dollar an impetus for further growth.
At the same time, the AUD / USD is falling from the opening of the trading day on Monday and at the beginning of the European trading session, trading near the 0.7230 mark.
On Tuesday, the attention of traders will be directed to the publication at 03:30 (GMT) of the decision on the RBA interest rate. It is expected that the central bank of Australia will leave its key interest rate unchanged, at a record low of 1.5%. Market participants will closely monitor the rhetoric of the RBA's accompanying statement.
The fall in housing prices, the slowdown in consumer spending, weak wage growth, the trade conflict between the United States and China, and the uncertain prospects for the global economy have become factors in the slowdown in GDP growth in 2019.
Any concerns of the RBA leadership regarding the growth of the country's economy can be considered by investors as a signal to resume sales of the Australian dollar.

Meanwhile, AUD / USD is declining, attempting to consolidate below the support level of 0.7245 (EMA144 on the daily chart).
In the event of a breakdown of short-term support levels of 0.7204 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart), 0.7172 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart, EMA50 on the daily chart) AUD / USD will move towards the support levels of 0.7085, 0.7025 with the prospect of further decline with long-term goals at the levels support 0.6910 (lows of September 2015), 0.6830 (lows of 2016).
An alternative scenario assumes the resumption of upward correction. In case of a breakdown of the key resistance level of 0.7295 AUD / USD, it will go to resistance levels of 0.7385, 0.7460 (Fibonacci 23.6% of the correction to the wave of decline in the pair from July 2017 and the level of 0.9500. The minimum of this wave is near the level of 0.6830).
Further growth is unlikely due to a number of fundamental factors.
Support Levels: 0.7204, 0.7172, 0.7085, 0.7025
Resistance Levels: 0.7245, 0.7295, 0.7385, 0.7460

Trading scenarios
Sell in the market. Stop Loss 0.7280. Take-Profit 0.7204, 0.7172, 0.7085, 0.7025, 0.6910, 0.6830
Buy Stop 0.7305. Stop Loss 0.7240. Take-Profit 0.7385, 0.7460

 

[TifiaFX]

GBP/USD: Dollar lacks positive momentum
05/02/2019
After, on Tuesday morning, the RB of Australia expectedly kept the interest rate unchanged, the volatility of trading on the foreign exchange market at the beginning of the European session decreased significantly. Major dollar currency pairs, with the exception of AUD / USD, are traded on Tuesday in a narrow range. The US dollar and the market as a whole do not have enough drivers for further movement.
Probably, such a driver will be the publication in the first half of the US trading session (15:00 GMT) of the report of the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) on activity in the non-manufacturing sector of the United States. Economists expect the non-production composite index from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) in January to fall to 57.1 from 58.0 in December. Although an index value above 50 indicates an increase in activity, a relative decline in the indicator may have a short-term negative impact on the dollar.
Market participants will also closely monitor the performance of the US President Donald Trump in Congress later on Tuesday with an annual message on the state of the country. Any signals from Trump about a positive change in the sides' positions in the negotiations between the US and China will support the dollar, which needs a strong positive impetus for further growth after the Fed meeting last week. As you know, on Wednesday the Fed kept its current monetary policy unchanged and signaled its intentions to be more restrained in regard to further rate increases. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said at a press conference that "there was a little less reason to raise rates".
According to the central bank executives, the current level of inflationary pressure does not force the Fed to take any action.
Many investors do not expect further increases in the Federal Reserve rates this year. Moreover, futures on the Fed rates on Monday indicated an 11% chance of lowering the Fed rates by the end of the year. Last week, this probability was 21%, according to the CME Group.
The dollar index DXY, reflecting its value against a basket of 6 currencies, is moderately rising from the opening of the trading day on Tuesday. At the beginning of the European session, futures for the DXY dollar index traded near the 95.68 mark, 10 points higher than the opening price of the trading day.

GBP / USD has fallen on Tuesday for 4 days in a row. Weak macro data, unresolved situation with the UK exit from the EU, as well as worsening situation in the world, volatility in financial markets and restraint of the Federal Reserve System can force the Bank of England to take a softer stance with regard to its monetary policy. Any hints of the bank towards a softer policy will cause a sharp decline in the pound.
Indicators OsMA and Stochastic on the 1-hour, 4-hour, daily charts switched to the short positions.
After GBP / USD is fixed in the zone below the support level of 1.2920 (ЕМА50 on the daily chart, ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart) short positions will again become relevant.
The main trend is still bearish. The objectives of the decline are support levels of 1.2600 (lows of June 2017), 1.2485, 1.2365.
Support Levels: 1.2975, 1.2920, 1.2860, 1.2785, 1.2700, 1.2670, 1.2600, 1.2485, 1.2365, 1.2110, 1.2000
Resistance Levels: 1.3040, 1.3065, 1.3125, 1.3210, 1.3300, 1.3470, 1.3690

Trading scenarios
Sell in the market. Stop Loss 1.3070. Take-Profit 1.2975, 1.2920, 1.2860, 1.2785, 1.2700, 1.2670, 1.2600, 1.2485, 1.2365
Buy Stop 1.3070. Stop Loss 1.2990. Take-Profit 1.3125, 1.3210, 1.3300, 1.3470, 1.3690

 

[TifiaFX]

AUD/USD: Trading recommendations
06/02/2019
On Wednesday, AUD / USD broke through important short-term support levels of 0.7210 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart), 0.7172 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart, EMA50 on the daily chart) and continues to decline towards support levels of 0.7085, 0.7025.
On Friday (00:30 GMT), the RBA will comment on the prospects for its monetary policy. There will also be given forecasts regarding the further growth of the Australian economy, labor market, inflation. If forecasts turn out to be negative, then the Australian dollar and AUD / USD will continue to decline.
Long-term reduction targets are at support levels of 0.6910 (lows of September 2015), 0.6830 (lows of 2016).
Negative dynamics prevails; below the resistance level 0.7172 short positions are preferable.
Support Levels: 0.7100, 0.7085, 0.7025
Resistance Levels: 0.7172, 0.7210, 0.7245, 0.7295, 0.7385, 0.7460

Trading recommendations
Sell in the market. Stop Loss 0.7190. Take-Profit 0.7100, 0.7085, 0.7025, 0.6910, 0.6830
Buy Stop 0.7215. Stop Loss 0.7160. Take-Profit 0.7245, 0.7295, 0.7385, 0.7460

 

[TifiaFX]

NZD/USD: external negative background may intensify
07/02/2019
Randal Quarles, deputy chairman of the US Federal Reserve System for Supervision of the Banking Sector, said Wednesday that he was worried about the negative impact of events taking place abroad. “Global risks are probably the most significant”, said Quarles, pointing in particular to the slowdown in China’s GDP growth. Chinese imports occupy the lion’s share of New Zealand exports.
The slowdown of the world and Chinese economies have the most negative impact on commodity prices, as well as on commodity currencies, including the New Zealand dollar.
On Thursday, the NZD declines after the publication on the eve of the weaker-than-expected data from the New Zealand labor market. According to the Statistics Bureau of New Zealand, unemployment in the country increased in the 4th quarter of 2018 (4.3% versus 4.0% in the 3rd quarter and 4.1%, as expected, according to the forecast).

At the beginning of the US trading session, NZD / USD is trading below key levels of 0.6805 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), 0.6775 (ЕМА144 on the daily chart), near 0.6745, through which the bottom line of the ascending channel passes on the 4-hour chart. In the event of a breakdown of the support level of 0.6745, NZD / USD will go to the nearest local support level of 0.6710, a breakdown of which will mean the return of NZD / USD to a bearish trend.
Only after NZD / USD returns to the zone above the resistance level of 0.6805, will it be possible to return to NZD / USD purchases again.
Probably, before the RBNZ meeting on monetary policy, which will take place on February 12, the New Zealand dollar will remain under pressure, given the overall negative external macroeconomic background. If the RBNZ signals a propensity to reduce the rate, the New Zealand dollar may decline significantly.
If the Fed again announces the possibility of a rate hike this year, the negative fundamental background for the New Zealand dollar in its dynamics against the US dollar will increase significantly.
Resistance Levels: 0.6745, 0.6710, 0.6655, 0.6515, 0.6430
Support Levels: 0.6775, 0.6805, 0.6860, 0.6970, 0.7080

Trading recommendations
Sell Stop 0.6735. Stop Loss 0.6785. Take-Profit 0.6710, 0.6655, 0.6515, 0.6430
Buy Stop 0.6785. Stop Loss 0.6735. Take-Profit 0.6805, 0.6860, 0.6970, 0.7080

 

[TifiaFX]

USD/CAD: the dollar is rising amid investor concerns. Trading scenarios
08/02/2019
Commodity currencies, such as New Zealand, Australian, Canadian dollars, fell on Thursday and continue to decline on Friday amid investor concerns about the global economy.
The USD / CAD pair is trading before the start of the US trading session near the 1.3317 mark, above the important short-term support level of 1.3275 (ЕМА50 on the daily chart, ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart).
Investors are once again concerned about the state of the global economy, which causes the purchase of defensive assets and the dollar. At the beginning of the European session on Friday, DXY dollar index futures traded at 96.46, 12 points higher than the opening price of the trading day.
White House economic adviser Larry Cudlow told the Fox Business Network that China and the United States are still far from a deal in trade. Hopes for a new trade agreement between the countries weakened after Cudlow's statements.
If a trade truce is not concluded, then on March 2, the United States will raise duties on imports of goods from China by another $ 200 billion to 25% from 10%.
This can have a very negative impact on stock markets and commodity prices, as well as causing investors to withdraw into defensive assets and the dollar.
Declining prices are also putting pressure on CAD quotes. On Thursday, WTI crude oil prices closed at a low from January 28 at $52.64 per barrel.

Above key support levels of 1.3185 (ЕМА144 on the daily chart), 1.3135 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), 1.3100 (ЕМА50 on the weekly chart) positive dynamics of USD / CAD prevails.
Long positions are preferred. Growth targets - resistance levels of 1.3450 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the downward correction to the pair's growth in the global uptrend since September 2012 and 0.9700), 1.3665 (2018 highs), 1.3790 (2017 highs).
The breakdown of the important short-term support level of 1.3275 will be the beginning of the development of an alternative scenario for reducing USD / CAD with targets at the support levels of 1.3135, 1.3100.
Support Levels: 1.3275, 1.3185, 1.3135, 1.3100
Resistance Levels: 1.3370, 1.3450, 1.3600, 1.3665, 1.3790

Trading scenarios
Sell Stop 1.3290. Stop Loss 1.3330. Take-Profit 1.3185, 1.3135, 1.3100
Buy Stop 1.3330. Stop-Loss 1.3270. Take-Profit 1.3370, 1.3450, 1.3600, 1.3665, 1.3790