Tifia Daily Market Analytics

[TifiaFX]

GBP/USD: Uncertainty is growing
11/20/2018
Current Dynamics
According to the manager of the Bank of England Mark Carney, Brexit and the exit of the UK from the EU without an agreement - “this is a real economic shock, so central banks will play secondary roles”. In this situation, raising or lowering interest rates by the Bank of England is not so important for the economy.
Mark Carney said on Tuesday in Parliament, the Bank of England’s management does not doubt the ability of UK banks to withstand if Brexit negotiations end in nothing. The probability of a Britain exit from the EU without an agreement has grown to about 50%.
Last week, British Prime Minister Theresa May proposed her plan to conclude an agreement with the EU on Brexit.
According to the representative of the Bank of England, Michael Sanders, British companies are not ready for the fact that the country's exit from the EU will take place without an agreement on further trade relations.
Uncertainty is growing, and it is not yet clear whether the country's prime minister Theresa May can convince parliament to support the agreement reached with the EU. All of these are negative factors for the pound. A pair of GBP / USD is prone to decline amid problems with the promotion of the Brexit project in the British Parliament and rumors about the possible resignation of Theresa May.

Support and Resistance Levels
GBP / USD continues to trade in a long-term downtrend. Despite the current correctional growth, short positions are preferable. The situation around Brexit remains the main negative factor for the pound.
A breakdown of the short-term resistance level of 1.2897 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart) may trigger a further corrective rise to the resistance level of 1.2962 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart, ЕМА50 on the daily chart). Further growth is unlikely until an agreement is reached on Brexit.
Below the key resistance levels of 1.3210 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the decline of the GBP / USD pair in the wave that started in July 2014 near the level of 1.7200), 1.3180 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart) negative dynamics prevail.
Support Levels: 1.2730, 1.2660, 1.2500, 1.2365, 1.2110, 1.2000
Resistance Levels: 1.2897, 1.2962, 1.3030, 1.3180, 1.3210, 1.3300

Trading Scenarios
Sell in the market. Stop Loss 1.2910. Take-Profit 1.2730, 1.2700, 1.2660, 1.2500, 1.2365, 1.2110, 1.2000
Buy Stop 1.2910. Stop Loss 1.2820. Take-Profit 1.2962, 1.3030, 1.3180, 1.3210, 1.3300

 

[TifiaFX]

XAU/USD: Trading Scenarios
22/11/2018
Corrective XAU / USD growth continues, as evidenced by the breakdown of short-term resistance levels of 1218.00 (ЕМА200 on 4-hour chart), 1220.00 (ЕМА200 on 1-hour chart).
Indicators OsMA and Stochastic on the 1-hour, 4-hour, daily charts recommend long positions.
In case of continued growth, the immediate goal will be the resistance level of 1234.00 (EMA144 on the daily chart).
Confirmed breakdown of resistance levels of 1243.00 (EMA200 on the daily chart), 1248.00 (Fibonacci level 50% of the correction to the wave of decline since July 2016) will indicate the end of the bearish trend.
Below resistance levels of 1243.00, 1248.00, short positions are preferable, despite corrective growth; bearish trend remains in force.
The signal for the resumption of sales will be the breakdown of support levels of 1220.00, 1218.00.
The targets of declining are support levels of 1197.00 (November lows), 1185.00 (Fibonacci level 23.6%), 1160.00 (minimums of the year).

Support Levels: 1220.00, 1218.00, 1200.00, 1197.00, 1185.00, 1160.00
Resistance Levels: 1234.00, 1243.00, 1248.00, 1261.00, 1277.00

Trading Scenarios
Sell Stop 1223.00. Stop Loss 1230.00. Take-Profit 1220.00, 1218.00, 1200.00, 1197.00, 1185.00, 1160.00
Buy Stop 1230.00. Stop Loss 1223.00. Take-Profit 1234.00, 1243.00, 1248.00, 1261.00, 1277.00

 

[TifiaFX]

GBP/USD: Trading Scenarios
11/23/2018
Despite the approval on Thursday of the preconditions for a British exit from the EU, the pound remains under pressure. At the same time, the issue of the border of Great Britain with Northern Ireland is not resolved. Now the draft agreement submitted by Prime Minister Theresa May should be approved by the country's parliament. Former Brexit minister Dominic Raab believes parliamentarians will vote against the deal. This will require a repeat vote, which is likely to be scheduled for February next year, and most likely the pound will remain under pressure until this date.
GBP / USD continues to trade in a descending channel on the daily chart. The main trend is still bearish. Short positions are preferred.
Below the key resistance levels of 1.3210 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the decline of the GBP / USD pair in the wave that started in July 2014 near the level of 1.7200), 1.3180 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart) negative dynamics prevail.
The signal for the resumption of long positions will be the breakdown of the short-term resistance level of 1.2940 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart). Growth above resistance levels 1.3180, 1.3210 is unlikely.
The situation around Brexit remains the main negative factor for the pound.

Support Levels: 1.2770, 1.2730, 1.2700, 1.2660, 1.2500, 1.2365, 1.2110, 1.2000
Resistance Levels: 1.2860, 1.2940, 1.3030, 1.3180, 1.3210, 1.3300

Trading Scenarios
Sell in the market. Stop Loss 1.2880. Take-Profit 1.2770, 1.2730, 1.2700, 1.2660, 1.2500, 1.2365, 1.2110, 1.2000
Buy Stop 1.2880. Stop Loss 1.2830. Take-Profit 1.2940, 1.3030, 1.3180, 1.3210, 1.3300

 

[TifiaFX]

GBP/USD: until December 12, the pound will remain under pressure
11/27/2018
Current Dynamics
Despite the fact that last weekend the EU summit approved an agreement between the UK and the EU on Brexit, the pound remains under pressure, and the GBP / USD pair has been falling for the third consecutive day.
Teresa May managed to persuade EU representatives to conclude a deal on Brexit according to her plan, which provides for a transition period from March 2019 to December 2020 and can then be extended until December 2022.
Nevertheless, numerous representatives of the Conservative Party, as well as some representatives of the opposition, have subjected the draft agreement to harsh criticism. At the weekend, the media reported that 93 members of the Conservative Party of Parliament oppose the Brexit plan agreed by the UK and the EU.
Statements by US President Donald Trump that an agreement on a Brexit deal could be a threat to a trade agreement between the US and the UK only aggravate the situation.
Voting on a deal with the EU in the House of Commons of the British Parliament is scheduled for December 12.
Many experts say that if the parliament refuses to approve the agreement, GBP / USD will fall to the range of 1.2000 - 1.2500, and if the lawmakers support the deal, it will quickly grow to 1.3500 - 1.4000.
It is likely that trading on the pound until December 12 will be volatile and dependent on any news on the Brexit deal. In general, investors will avoid making large bets on pound trading before this date.
At the same time, the US dollar returned previously lost positions after the US president called it “highly probable” an increase in trade duties on goods from China. President Donald Trump, in an interview with the Wall Street Journal, once again announced his intention to introduce next year a 25% duty on goods from China in the amount of $ 200 billion in the event of an unfavorable outcome of negotiations with the PRC. Trump also said that he will impose duties on all imports from China, which is not yet subject to taxation.
The DXY dollar index, which tracks the US currency against a basket of 6 other major currencies, has been rising for the third day in a row. Futures on the dollar index DXY to the beginning of the American session is trading near the mark of 97.10, 16 points higher than the opening price of the trading day on Tuesday.
Most of the Fed leaders in September planned another rate increase before the end of the year, which, according to expectations, should occur at the meeting December 18-19. For 2019, several more Fed rate hikes are planned.
On Thursday (19:00 GMT), a protocol from the November meeting of the Federal Open Market Operations Committee (FOMC Minutes) will be published. The harsh rhetoric of Fed officials regarding the prospects for monetary policy will push the dollar to further growth.
A day earlier, namely on Wednesday (17:00 GMT), Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will deliver a speech. Two weeks ago, Powell announced the “good shape” of the American economy.

Support and Resistance Levels
GBP / USD continues to trade in a descending channel on the daily chart, the lower limit of which passes near the support level of 1.2600 (lows of June 2017). In case of a breakdown of the nearest support level of 1.2700 (October lows), the GBP / USD will head towards the support level of 1.2600.
The main trend is still bearish. Below the key resistance levels of 1.3210 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the decline of the GBP / USD pair in the wave that started in July 2014 near the level of 1.7200), 1.3170 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart) negative dynamics prevail.
Short positions are preferred. Until December 12, when the UK parliament will vote on the terms of the Brexit deal, the pound will remain under pressure.
Support Levels: 1.2700, 1.2600, 1.2500, 1.2365, 1.2110, 1.2000
Resistance Levels: 1.2838, 1.2920, 1.3030, 1.3170, 1.3210, 1.3300

Trading Scenarios
Sell in the market. Stop Loss 1.2840. Take-Profit 1.2700, 1.2660, 1.2600, 1.2500, 1.2365, 1.2110, 1.2000
Buy Stop 1.2840. Stop Loss 1.2760. Take-Profit 1.2920, 1.3030, 1.3170, 1.3210, 1.3300

 

[TifiaFX]

USD/CHF: Support and Resistance Levels
30/11/2018
USD / CHF continues to grow in the ascending channel on the weekly chart, the upper limit of which passes above the resistance level of 1.0130 (2016 highs and Fibonacci level 100% of the upward correction to the last global decline wave since December 2016 and from 1.0300). On Friday, USD / CHF continues to grow, trading above the support level of 0.9945 (ЕМА50 on the daily chart).
USD / CHF maintains a long-term positive trend, trading above the key support level of 0.9855 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart). Breakdown of the support level of 0.9945 may trigger a correction to the support level of 0.9855.
However, long positions are preferred. Purchases look safe above 0.9945 support level.

Support Levels: 0.9945, 0.9875, 0.9855, 0.9745
Resistance Levels: 1.0000, 1.0040, 1.0090, 1.0100, 1.0300, 1.0130

Trading Scenarios
Buy in the market. Stop Loss 0.9935. Take-Profit 1.0000, 1.0040, 1.0090, 1.0100, 1.0300, 1.0130
Sell Stop 0.9935. Stop Loss 0.9980. Take-Profit 0.9875, 0.9855, 0.9745

 

[TifiaFX]

AUD/USD: Support and resistance levels
03/12/2018
Since the beginning of last month, AUD / USD has been developing an upward trend. Correctional growth allowed AUD / USD to rise to the key resistance level of 0.7380 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), breaking through the strong resistance level of 0.7320 (ЕМА144 on the daily chart) on Monday with news of the suspension of the US-China trade conflict.
However, further growth of AUD / USD is unlikely, and a positive impulse can quickly disappear. If an agreement is not reached in 90 days, the United States will raise duties on Chinese goods worth $ 200 billion from 10% to 25%, and the trade conflict between the countries will enter a new round of escalation.
The most likely - the resumption of declining of the AUD / USD. In this case, the AUD / USD pair is at profitable levels in order to open short positions. Rebounding from the resistance level of 0.7380 and returning to the zone below the support level of 0.7320 will mean the resumption of the long-term bearish trend that began in August 2011. Breakdown of the support level of 0.7320 will resume the decline of AUD / USD with long-term goals at support levels of 0.6910 (lows of September 2015), 0.6830 (2016 lows). Short positions are preferred.
An alternative scenario assumes continued growth with the maximum goal at the resistance level of 0.7460 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the wave of decline in the pair since July 2017 and the level of 0.9500. The minimum of this wave is near the level of 0.6830).
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support Levels: 0.7320, 0.7230, 0.7200, 0.7175, 0.7120, 0.7100, 0.7075, 0.7045, 0.7025, 0.6910, 0.6830
Resistance Levels: 0.7380, 0.7460, 0.7770, 0.7850

Trading scenarios
Sell in the market. Stop Loss 0.7410. Take-Profit 0.7320, 0.7230, 0.7200, 0.7175, 0.7120, 0.7100, 0.7075, 0.7045, 0.7025, 0.6910, 0.6830
Buy Stop 0.7410. Stop Loss 0.7310. Take-Profit 0.7460, 0.7500

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

 

[TifiaFX]

GBP/USD: the pound strengthened on Tuesday
12/04/2018
Current Dynamics
The European Court’s decision on the possibility of the UK abandoning Brexit, as well as the publication of the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for the UK construction sector, had a positive effect on the pound. In November, the PMI index for the UK construction sector rose to 53.4 from 53.2 in October after a decline in activity over the previous 8 months. IHS Markit also reported that in November, the construction sector showed a generally strong growth, and the pace of job creation in it accelerated to a maximum since December 2015.
On Tuesday, the British Parliament will begin a 5-day discussion of the two documents that make up the Brexit agreement and formulate a way out of the UK from the EU and the future relationship between the UK and the bloc.
According to the Brexit deal, the UK is granted a transition period from March 2019 to December 2020, which can then be extended until December 2022.
Nevertheless, numerous representatives of the Conservative Party, as well as some representatives of the opposition, subjected the draft agreement to harsh criticism. Many members of the Conservative Party of Parliament oppose the Brexit plan agreed by the UK and the EU.
Voting on a deal with the EU in the House of Commons of the British Parliament is scheduled for December 12.
Many experts say that if the parliament refuses to approve the agreement, GBP / USD will fall into the range of 1.2000 - 1.2500, and if the lawmakers support the deal, it will quickly grow to 1.3500 - 1.4000.

Support and Resistance Levels
Positive news supported the pound on Tuesday, allowing the GBP / USD pair to rise to 1.2840 at the beginning of the European session.
Nevertheless, the further strengthening of the pound and the growth of the GBP / USD is unlikely. Until December 12, investors will avoid major deals on the pound.
There are risks that in case of the parliament’s refusal to approve the Brexit agreement, the GBP / USD pair will fall into the range of 1.2000 - 1.2500.
The signal for the development of this scenario will be the breakdown of the local support level of 1.2700 (August and October lows).
The main trend is still bearish. Below the key resistance levels of 1.3210 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the decline of the GBP / USD pair in the wave that started in July 2014 near the level of 1.7200), 1.3140 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart) negative dynamics prevail.
Short positions are preferred.
Support Levels: 1.2785, 1.2700, 1.2600, 1.2500, 1.2365, 1.2110, 1.2000
Resistance Levels: 1.2885, 1.2920, 1.3030, 1.3140, 1.3210, 1.3300

Trading scenarios
Sell in the market. Stop Loss 1.2890. Take-Profit 1.2700, 1.2660, 1.2600, 1.2500, 1.2365, 1.2110, 1.2000
Buy Stop 1.2890. Stop Loss 1.2780. Take-Profit 1.2920, 1.3030, 1.3140, 1.3210, 1.3300, 1.3400, 1.3500, 1.3600, 1.3760

 

[TifiaFX]

USD/CAD: Support and Resistance Levels
06/12/2018
Last Wednesday, the Bank of Canada left its key interest rate unchanged, at 1.75%. In a statement explaining the decision to leave interest rates unchanged, a much more cautious tone is used than in previous statements. On Thursday (13:50 GMT) Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz will deliver a speech. The soft rhetoric of Stephen Poloz regarding the bank’s monetary policy will further weaken the Canadian dollar.
USD / CAD maintains a positive trend, trading in the ascending channel on the weekly chart, the upper limit of which is above the resistance level of 1.3600. Above the key support level of 1.3025 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart) a bullish trend remains.
In case of breakdown of the resistance level 1.3450 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the downward correction to the growth of the pair in the global uptrend since September 2012 and 0.9700).
The growth targets will be the resistance levels of 1.3600, 1.3790 (2017 highs). Long positions are preferred.
Only a breakdown of support levels 1.2740 (Fibonacci level of 38.2%), 1.2700 (EMA200 on the weekly chart) will cancel the bull trend.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support Levels: 1.3380, 1.3300, 1.3285, 1.3225, 1.3195, 1.3025, 1.2900, 1.2800, 1.2740, 1.2700
Resistance Levels: 1.3450, 1.3600, 1.3790

Trading Scenarios
Sell Stop 1.3370. Stop-Loss 1.3460. Take-Profit 1.3300, 1.3285, 1.3225, 1.3195, 1.3025
Buy Stop 1.3460. Stop-Loss 1.3370. Take-Profit 1.3600, 1.3790

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

 

[TifiaFX]

XAU/USD: Market expectations
12/07/2018
Against the background of monetary tightening by the Fed since April, gold prices have been in a steady downward trend. In mid-August, the XAU / USD pair reached an annual minimum near the mark of 1160.00, however, then an upward correction began, raising the price of gold to the mark of 1244.00 dollars per troy ounce. Nevertheless, the overall gold trend remains bearish, and the upward correction may end near the reached resistance levels of 1242.00 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), 1248.00 (Fibonacci level 50% of the correction to the decline wave from July 2016), if the Fed will give clear signals to further tighten its monetary policy.
The breakdown of the support level of 1233.00 (EMA144 on the daily chart) will be the beginning of the return of XAU / USD to the bearish trend.
The soft rhetoric of statements by Fed officials could provoke a breakdown of the achieved resistance levels and a further growth of the XAU / USD towards resistance levels of 1260.00 (ЕМА200 on the weekly chart and the upper limit of the upward channel on the daily chart), 1277.00 (Fibonacci level 61.8%).
We remind you that the publication of key data for the Fed from the US labor market is scheduled for 13:30 (GMT). Predicting the market response to the publication of indicators is often difficult. In any case, when these indicators are published, a surge in volatility is expected in trading not only for USD, but also for the entire financial market. Probably the most cautious investors would prefer to stay out of the market during this time period.
Support Levels: 1233.00, 1220.00, 1212.00, 1204.00, 1198.00, 1185.00, 1160.00
Resistance Levels: 1242.00, 1248.00, 1260.00, 1277.00

Trading scenarios
Sell Stop 1232.00. Stop Loss 1245.00. Take-Profit 1220.00, 1212.00, 1204.00, 1198.00, 1185.00, 1160.00
Buy Stop 1245.00. Stop Loss 1232.00. Take-Profit 1248.00, 1260.00, 1277.00

 

[TifiaFX]

USD/CHF: on the eve of the meeting of the National Bank of Switzerland
Current dynamics
12/12/2018
On Thursday, a regular meeting of the Swiss National Bank will be held on monetary policy issues. The decision on rates will be published at 08:30 (GMT).
Earlier in late September, the National Bank of Switzerland kept its negative interest rates unchanged: the deposit rate was at the level of -0.75%, the range for the 3-month LIBOR rate was between -1.25% and -0.25%. “The bank still considers a negative interest rate necessary and is ready to intervene in the foreign exchange market if the situation requires it”, the NBS said. According to the management of the NBS, the cost of the Swiss franc is still high. It is likely that rates will remain unchanged for much of the next year, while weaker economic data has come from Switzerland. Thus, GDP in the 3rd quarter decreased by -0.2% instead of the expected growth of + 0.4% and against growth of + 0.7% in the 2nd quarter. Other macro data also indicate a slowdown in the economy.
At 09:00 (GMT) the press conference of the NBS will start. The harsh rhetoric of the speech by the head of the NBS Thomas Jordan, will help strengthen the franc. The soft tone of the speech and the tendency to continue the extra soft monetary policy of the NBS will negatively affect the franc.

Support and Resistance Levels
The USD / CHF pair is trading at the beginning of the American session on Wednesday, near the strong short-term resistance level of 0.9960 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart). Breakdown of this level will strengthen the upward trend prevailing above key support levels of 0.9875 (Fibonacci level 61.8% of the upward correction to the last global decline wave from December 2016 and from 1.0300), 0.9860 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart).
As long as USD / CHF is above these key support levels, a long-term uptrend persists and long positions are preferred.
An alternative decline scenario may develop after the breakdown of the support level of 0.9860 with the immediate goal at the support level of 0.9745 (ЕМА200 on the weekly chart and the Fibonacci level of 50%).
Support levels: 0.9935, 0.9915, 0.9875, 0.9860, 0.9745
Resistance Levels: 0.9960, 1.0010, 1.0060, 1.0110

Trading Scenarios
Buy Stop 0.9970. Stop Loss 0.9930. Take-Profit 1.0010, 1.0060, 1.0110
Sell Stop 0.9930. Stop Loss 0.9970. Take-Profit 0.9915, 0.9875, 0.9860, 0.9745, 0.9610, 0.9575

 

[TifiaFX]

EUR/USD: Market Expectations
12/13/2018
On Thursday, the focus of attention of participants in the financial market will be the ECB meeting. The bank is expected to leave rates at current levels at least until the end of the summer of 2019. It is also likely that the ECB will confirm the completion of the asset purchase program at the end of December.
The ECB rate decision will be published at 12:45 (GMT), and the ECB press conference will begin at 13:30. If Mario Draghi makes unexpected announcements, then the volatility in euro trading and the financial market will increase significantly. The harsh rhetoric of Mario Draghi on monetary policy prospects will strengthen the euro. Conversely, the soft tone of the ECB statement and the speech of Mario Draghi will have a downward pressure on the euro.
Meanwhile, the euro will remain under pressure against the dollar, which is supported by demand from investors amid expectations of further tightening of the Fed's monetary policy.
While EUR / USD is trading below the key resistance level of 1.1610 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), short positions are preferable. The likelihood of further decline in EUR / USD remains. After the breakdown of the support level of 1.1362 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart) EUR / USD will go to support levels of 1.1310 (December lows), 1.1290 (Fibonacci level of the 23.6% of the correction to the fall from the level of 1.3900, which began in May 2014), 1.1210 (November and year lows).
After EUR / USD rises to the zone above the resistance level of 1.1410 (ЕМА50 on the daily chart), further corrective growth is possible to the resistance level of 1.1610.

Support Levels: 1.1362, 1.1310, 1.1290, 1.1210, 1.1000
Resistance Levels: 1.1385, 1.1410, 1.1470, 1.1610, 1.1700, 1.1790

Trading recommendations
Sell Stop 1.1350. Stop-Loss 1.1420. Take-Profit 1.1310, 1.1290, 1.1210, 1.1000
Buy Stop 1.1420. Stop-Loss 1.1350. Take-Profit 1.1470, 1.1610, 1.1700, 1.1790

 

[TifiaFX]

EUR/USD: Eurodollar remains under pressure
Current dynamics
14/12/2018
The Eurodollar remains under pressure after the ECB meeting on Thursday.
His head, Mario Draghi, pointed to the risks of the Eurozone economy, which are shifting towards the deterioration of the situation. The ECB confirmed that it will complete the QE program in December. Interest rates will remain unchanged until the summer of 2019.
The euro remains under pressure from the worsening domestic political situation in France, the reluctance of the Italian government to more strongly curtail the planned budget deficit, as required by the European Commission, as well as Brexit and uncertainty due to the forthcoming elections to the European Parliament in May.
On Friday, the decline of the EUR / USD pair continued after the publication of disappointing macro data from the Eurozone. The EUR / USD pair fell from the opening of the trading day by 0.6% and at the beginning of the American session is trading near the 1.1286 mark, trying to break through the important support level of 1.1290 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the fall from the level of 1.3900, which began in May 2014) .
Below the key resistance level of 1.1610 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart) negative dynamics prevail. Short positions with targets at support levels of 1.1210 (November and year lows), 1.1000 (bottom line of the downward channel on the daily chart) are still preferred.
The signal for the resumption of long positions will be the breakdown of the resistance level of 1.1400 (ЕМА50 and the upper line of the downward channel on the daily chart) with the target at the resistance level of 1.1610.

Support Levels: 1.1290, 1.1210, 1.1000
Resistance Levels: 1.1310, 1.1360, 1.1385, 1.1400, 1.1470, 1.1610, 1.1700, 1.1790

Trading recommendations
Sell in the market. Stop-Loss 1.1410. Take-Profit 1.1210, 1.1000
Buy Stop 1.1410. Stop Loss 1.1280. Take-Profit 1.1470, 1.1610, 1.1700, 1.1790

 

[TifiaFX]

GBP/USD: Support and Resistance Levels
17/12/2018
After another sharp fall in mid-April since early May, GBP / USD continues to trade in a downward channel on a weekly chart, the lower limit of which passes near the support level of 1.1700. In the event of a breakdown of the nearest support level of 1.2600 (lows of June 2017), GBP / USD will head towards the support level of 1.2485 (minimums of the year). The main trend is still bearish. Below the key resistance levels of 1.3215 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the decline of the GBP / USD pair in a wave that began in July 2014 near the level of 1.7200), 1.3095 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart) negative dynamics prevail. Short positions are preferred.
The signal for growth will be the breakdown of the short-term resistance level of 1.2642 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart, ЕМА50 on the 4-hour chart). The immediate goal of growth is resistance levels of 1.2780 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart), 1.2820 (ЕМА50 on the daily chart).
With favorable developments, corrective growth of GBP / USD may continue to resistance levels 1.3095 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), 1.3215.
Support Levels: 1.2600, 1.2500, 1.2485, 1.2365, 1.2110, 1.2000
Resistance Levels: 1.2670, 1.2700, 1.2780, 1.2820, 1.2900, 1.3000, 1.3095, 1.3215

Trading Scenarios
Sell in the market. Stop Loss 1.2650. Take-Profit 1.2500, 1.2485, 1.2365, 1.2110, 1.2000
Buy Stop 1.2680. Stop Loss 1.2580. Take-Profit 1.2700, 1.2780, 1.2820, 1.2900, 1.3000, 1.3095, 1.3215

 

[TifiaFX]

XAU/USD: Market expectations
18/12/2018
Against the background of monetary tightening by the Fed since April, gold prices have been in a steady downward trend. In mid-August, the XAU / USD pair reached an annual minimum near the mark of 1160.00, however, then an upward correction began, raising gold prices to the current mark of 1249.00 dollars per troy ounce. Nevertheless, the overall gold trend remains bearish, and the upward correction may end near the reached resistance levels of 1242.00 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), 1248.00 (Fibonacci level 50% of the correction to the decline wave from July 2016), if the Fed will give clear signals to further tighten its monetary policy in 2019.
About 70% of market participants, according to the CME Group, believe that the rate will be increased in 2019 at least 2 more times. At the same time, the rate increase on December 19, at the last Fed meeting this year, by 0.25% to 2.5% is not in doubt.
The press conference of the Fed will begin on Wednesday 19:30 (GMT). Unambiguous signals from US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, indicating a propensity to continue tightening monetary policy, will cause a rise in the dollar and a drop in gold prices. In the face of an increase in interest rates, gold is difficult to compete with other income-generating assets, such as government bonds, for example. At the same time, the cost of acquiring and storing gold is growing.
The breakdown of the support level of 1235.00 (EMA144 on the daily chart) will be the beginning of the return of XAU / USD to the bearish trend.
The soft rhetoric of statements by Fed officials could contribute to weakening the dollar and further rising gold and XAU / USD quotes towards resistance levels of 1260.00 (EMA200 on the weekly chart), 1277.00 (Fibonacci level 61.8%).

Support Levels: 1242.00, 1235.00, 1220.00, 1212.00, 1204.00, 1197.00, 1185.00, 1160.00
Resistance Levels: 1248.00, 1260.00, 1277.00

Trading scenarios
Sell Stop 1234.00. Stop Loss 1250.00. Take-Profit 1220.00, 1212.00, 1204.00, 1197.00, 1185.00, 1160.00
Buy Stop 1250.00. Stop Loss 1234.00. Take-Profit 1260.00, 1277.00

 

[TifiaFX]

EUR/USD: on the eve of the publication of the Fed rate decision
12/19/2018
It is widely expected that the Fed will raise the key interest rate by 0.25% to 2.5%. The probability of this is 72%, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. The decision of the Fed on the rate will be published at 19:00 (GMT). In November, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said that the stakes are "slightly below" the neutral level, at which they neither restrain nor accelerate economic growth. It is likely that the accompanying Fed statement will state that in the future rates will increase depending on economic data.
The Fed’s press conference will begin at 19:30 (GMT), and investors will closely monitor Powell’s performance to catch signals from him regarding the Fed’s future plans.
If he talks about the pause in the boost cycle in 2019, the dollar will fall under sales.
US President Donald Trump does not cease to criticize the Fed for its monetary policy.
If Powell confirms the inclination of the Fed to tighten its policy next year, then the dollar will receive a positive impetus for further growth. The discrepancy in the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve System and the European Central Bank in 2019 will increase. Even if EUR / USD rises in the near future against the backdrop of a restrained Fed statement, in the medium term and probably in the long term, the Eurodollar will decline.

Currently, EUR / USD is trading near a strong resistance level of 1.1400 (EMA50 on the daily chart). Below the key resistance level of 1.1595 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), negative dynamics prevail. The signal for the resumption of the decline will be the breakdown of the short-term support level of 1.1355 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart), and the targets for the decline will be the support levels of 1.1290 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the fall from the level of 1.3900, which began in May 2014), 1.1270 (minimums December), 1.1210 (November and year lows), 1.1000 (bottom line of the downward channel on the daily chart).
In the alternative scenario and in case of breakdown of the local resistance level of 1.1470, corrective growth will be possible to the resistance level of 1.1595.
Support Levels: 1.1376, 1.1355, 1.1310, 1.1290, 1.1210, 1.1000
Resistance Levels: 1.1400, 1.1470, 1.1595, 1.1700, 1.1790

Trading scenarios
Sell Stop 1.1370. Stop-Loss 1.1420. Take-Profit 1.1355, 1.1310, 1.1290, 1.1210, 1.1000
Buy Stop 1.1420. Stop-Loss 1.1370. Take-Profit 1.1470, 1.1600, 1.1700, 1.1790

 

[TifiaFX]

EUR/USD: has the Eurodollar growth stopped?
12/21/2018
Current situation
Stocks and the dollar continued to fall on Thursday after the Fed raised interest rates on Wednesday. The Fed leaders unanimously decided to raise the key rate to a range of 2.25% -2.5%. However, the central bank announced a possible slowdown in monetary tightening next year.
At a press conference, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said that, according to central bank executives, next year the economy will be strong enough that rates could be raised twice. Earlier, the Fed planned 3 rate increases in 2019 and 2 more increases in 2020.
The US dollar declined significantly this week. On Thursday, the DXY dollar index, which tracks the US currency against a basket of 6 other major currencies, fell to an 8-week low, dropping to 95.73. At the beginning of the European session on Friday, futures for the DXY index traded higher (near the mark of 96.06), however, the pressure on the dollar persists.
US Treasury Secretary Stephen Mnuchin tried to reassure investors, saying that the reaction of markets to the results of the last Fed meeting was excessive. "I think we are clearly in a situation in which the market over-responded to the statements of the Fed", said Mnuchin. According to him, the central bank may not have to raise rates at all next year if inflation remains low.
However, investors' pessimism persists. The Fed continues to reduce its balance sheet and raise interest rates, but tensions remain in US political and trade relations with China.
Sales in stock markets led to a sharp strengthening of the yen and the euro, which are the funding currencies.
The Eurodollar strengthened since the beginning of the week, reaching a local maximum of 1.1485 on Thursday. However, on Friday the EUR / USD pair is falling. Investors take profits at the end of the week and close their positions ahead of the long weekend due to the celebration of Catholic Christmas early next week.
From the news today, attention should be paid to the publication (at 13:30 GMT) of a whole block of important macro data from the United States, including GDP data (final release), which are one of the key (along with labor market and inflation data) for the Fed in terms of its monetary policy. The forecast for the 3rd quarter of this year is +3.5% GDP growth. Despite the relative decline (in the previous quarter, GDP growth was + 4.2%), this is a strong indicator. If the data turns out to be worse than the forecast, the dollar and stock indices will react with a decrease.
It was the last full trading week this year. On Monday, markets in many countries will be closed. In full, trading will be restored only on Wednesday, and next Monday the world will celebrate the New Year.

Support and Resistance Levels
EUR / USD rose sharply this week, despite the Fed raising interest rates. Sales in stock markets led to an increase in demand for the yen and the euro, as for funding currencies. On Thursday, the EUR / USD pair reached a 5-week high near the 1.1485 mark. However, growth expected by many investors to the first strong resistance level of 1.1545 (ЕМА144 on the daily chart) did not take place, and on Friday EUR / USD is falling. A decline below the support level of 1.1400 (EMA50 on the daily chart) and inside the downward channel on the daily chart will indicate return of EUR / USD to the global bearish trend, and a breakdown of the short-term support level of 1.1384 (EMA200 on the 1-hour and 4-hour charts) will be a signal for opening short positions. The targets for further decline are support levels of 1.1290 (Fibonacci 23.6% correction to a fall from 1.3900, which began in May 2014), 1.1270 (December lows), 1.1210 (November and year lows), 1.1000 (bottom line of the downward channel on the day chart).
In the case of the resumption of growth and breakdown of the local resistance level of 1.1485, corrective growth will be possible to the resistance level of 1.1595 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart). Below this key resistance level of 1.1595 negative dynamics prevails.
Support Levels: 1.1400, 1.1384, 1.1310, 1.1290, 1.1270, 1.1210, 1.1000
Resistance Levels: 1.1470, 1.1485, 1.1545, 1.1595, 1.1700, 1.1790

Trading Scenarios
Sell in the market. Stop-Loss 1.1490. Take-Profit 1. 1.1400, 1.1384, 1.1310, 1.1290, 1.1270, 1.1210, 1.1000
Buy Stop 1.1490. Stop-Loss 1.1390. Take-Profit 1.1545, 1.1600, 1.1700, 1.1790

 

[TifiaFX]

S&P500: The threat of a nearly 10-year bull trend breaking down is high
12/27/2018
Current situation
On Wednesday, US stock indexes showed a sharp increase after falling for 4 consecutive sessions before.
DJIA rose 1086 points, or 5%, to 22878 points, which in percentage terms was the most significant one-day increase since March 2009. S&P500 added 5%, while the Nasdaq Composite rose 5.8%.
On Tuesday, US financial markets were closed due to the celebration of Catholic Christmas, while most European markets on Wednesday were still closed due to Boxing Day. On Monday, the DJIA and S&P500 fell by 2.5%, and on Wednesday the DJIA declined at the opening of the trading day to around 21620, losing more than 1,800 points in four sessions. At the opening of the trading day on Wednesday, futures on the S&P500 stood at 2333.0, however, it increased during the day, closing the trading day on Wednesday at 2467.0.
Financial markets continue to be feverish at the end of the year. Investors were nervous about the rising interest rates of the Federal Reserve and the US-China trade conflict. Also on the dynamics of stock markets and the dollar in recent days reflected the continuing criticism of the Fed and its head Powell by US President Donald Trump, as well as the uncertainty associated with the closure of the US government.
On Wednesday, Kevin Hasset, Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers at the White House, said there was no likelihood of the dismissal of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, despite criticism of the central bank by President Donald Trump. The recovery of stock market quotes and the dollar on Wednesday also was helped by the positive macro data, according to which, retail sales in the US excluding cars for the period from November 1 to December 24 increased by 5.1% compared with the same period of the previous year, which was the most significant increase in six years.
On Thursday, investors' pessimism returns to the markets. US stock indexes are falling. All 11 sectors of the S&P500 are moving towards ending the year with losses, for the first time since 2008. The threat of breaking a nearly 10-year bull trend is higher than ever before.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex

Support and Resistance Levels
In October, the S&P500 rose to an absolute maximum near the 2938.0 mark. However, a sharp decline in the index began later. Having broken through the strong support levels of 2720.0 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), 2677.0 (Fibonacci 23.6% of the correction to the growth since February 2016), the S&P500 reached a local minimum near 2333.0 on Wednesday. The last time near this mark S&P500 was in May 2017.
Negative dynamics and pessimism of investors still prevail. On Thursday, the S&P500 declined again after rising the previous day, trading at a key support level of 2433.0 (ЕМА200 on the weekly chart). Fixing below the support level of 2380.0 (Fibonacci level 50%) and a further decline will speak about breaking the bullish trend of the S&P500.
Only after returning to the zone above the resistance level of 2720.0, it will be possible to talk about the resumption of the bull trend. In the current situation, short positions are preferred.
Support Levels: 2433.0, 2380.0, 2333.0, 2250.0, 2130.0
Resistance Levels: 2515.0, 2572.0, 2677.0, 2720.0, 2812.0, 2877.0, 2900.0, 2938.0

Trading Scenarios
Sell Stop 2410.0. Stop Loss 2490.0. Goals 2380.0, 2333.0, 2250.0, 2130.0
Buy Stop 2490.0. Stop-Loss 2410.0. Goals 2515.0, 2572.0, 2677.0, 2720.0, 2812.0, 2877.0, 2900.0, 2938.0

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex

 

[TifiaFX]

WTI: Support and Resistance Levels
09/01/2019
After in October, the price of WTI oil reached a multi-month and annual maximum near the mark of 76.80 dollars per barrel, then its sharp decline began.
In November, the WTI oil price broke the long-term bullish trend, breaking through the key support levels of 63.50 (Fibonacci 38.2% of the correction to the growth wave that began in February 2016 with the support level near the 27.30 mark), 56.50 (ЕМА200 on the weekly chart) . At the end of last month, the price reached a local and annual minimum near the mark of 42.00 dollars per barrel.
From this level there was a rebound, and the price tried to develop an upward trend.
At the moment, corrective growth has stopped near the local resistance level of 50.50 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart).
A signal for further growth will be the breakdown of this resistance level of 50.50. Medium-term growth targets are resistance levels of 59.40 (Fibonacci level 50%), 60.50 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart).
The breakdown of the short-term support level of 47.80 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart) will return the prices of WTI crude oil to a bearish trend that began in October, with a target at the support level of 42.00 (Fibonacci 100% and the minimums of 2018 and 2017).

Support Levels: 49.00, 47.80, 46.00, 44.50, 42.00
Resistance Levels: 50.50, 52.70, 55.30, 56.50, 59.40, 60.50, 63.50

Trading Scenarios
Sell Stop 48.80. Stop Loss 51.10. Take-Profit 47.80, 46.00, 44.50, 42.00
Buy Stop 51.10. Stop Loss 48.80. Take-Profit 52.70, 55.30, 56.50, 59.40, 60.50, 63.50

 

[TifiaFX]

S&P500: Optimism returns to stock market
10/01/2019
Current situation
Published on Wednesday, the minutes of the December Fed meeting, hinting that the next increase in interest rates in the United States can take place not soon. The protocols showed that Fed leaders are concerned about the slowdown in global economic growth and the tension in trade relations, which destabilized markets before the December meeting. Therefore, "the extent and timing of further policy tightening has become less certain than before".
On Friday, Powell hinted that the Fed could be more patient with raising rates. Jerome Powell said that the central bank is ready to "change" its policy "if necessary" and that it will listen carefully to the market.
Powell’s statement supported investors, and US stock markets have grown in recent days.
There is still a long way to full recovery, but investors' optimism is gradually returning to the stock markets.
On Thursday, investors are expecting speeches by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell at a meeting of the Economic Club in Washington, which will begin at 17:00 (GMT). If Powell repeats his Friday statement, then stock indexes will rise. If Powell changes his mind and his Friday statement, then investors may consider this a negative signal.

Support and resistance levels
In the last days of last year, the S&P500 attempted to recover from a multi-week drop. Nevertheless, the correctional growth of the S&P500 stopped near the resistance level of 2584.0 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart).
The breakdown of the resistance level of 2584.0 will trigger further growth of the S&P500 with targets at resistance levels of 2603.0, 2615.0 (ЕМА50 on the daily chart).
However, only after returning to the zone above the resistance level of 2700.0 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart) it will be possible to speak about the resumption of the bull trend.
The signal for the resumption of sales will be the breakdown of the support level of 2533.0 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart).
The targets for the decline will be the support levels of 2435.0 (ЕМА200 on the weekly chart), 2386.0 (Fibonacci 50% of the correction to the growth since February 2016). Fixing below these levels and a further decline will talk about breaking of the bullish trend S&P500.
Support Levels: 2533.0, 2507.0, 2435.0, 2386.0, 2335.0, 2250.0, 2130.0
Resistance Levels: 2584.0, 2603.0, 2615.0, 2676.0, 2700.0

Trading scenarios
Sell Stop 2550.0. Stop Loss 2595.0. Goals 2533.0, 2507.0, 2435.0, 2386.0, 2335.0, 2250.0, 2130.0
Buy Stop 2595.0. Stop Loss 2550.0. Objectives 2603.0, 2615.0, 2676.0, 2700.0

 

[TifiaFX]

AUD/USD: Market Expectations
11/01/2019
US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell confirmed on Thursday the central bank’s intention to be patient this year in deciding to raise interest rates, taking into account the turbulence observed in recent weeks in financial markets concerned about the problems of global economic growth. “The US economy is strong”, said Powell. “The main source of concern is global growth”. He noted that the economies of the world today are much more interconnected than before, and the question is how much the slowdown in global economic growth will affect the US economy. Powell's optimism and his restraint in raising interest rates the Fed supported stock indexes and commodity currencies, including the Australian dollar.
From the news today we should pay attention to the publication (at 13:30 GMT) of data on consumer inflation in the United States. Inflation data is one of the main, along with data on GDP and the state of the labor market, on which the Fed's monetary policy depends. It is expected that in December, inflation in the United States decreased by -0.1%, but increased by 2.2% in annual terms. If the data turns out to be better than the forecast, then the USD will be strengthened. A decrease in performance will have a negative impact on the dollar.

In general, the long-term bearish trend AUD / USD is still in force. In the long run, short positions are preferable. The reached local maximums probably provide a good opportunity to enter a short position at AUD / USD.
The breakdown of the support level of 0.7150 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart) will cause the resumption of the AUD / USD decline with long-term targets at the support levels of 0.6910 (September 2015 minimum), 0.6830 (2016 lows).
Below the resistance level of 0.7255 (EMA200 on the daily chart) short positions are preferable.
Support Levels: 0.7200, 0.7150, 0.7100, 0.7025
Resistance Levels: 0.7255, 0.7320, 0.7385, 0.7460

Trading Scenarios
Sell in the market. Stop Loss 0.7260. Take-Profit 0.7200, 0.7150, 0.7100, 0.7025, 0.6910, 0.6830
Buy Stop 0.7260. Stop Loss 0.7190. Take-Profit 0.7320, 0.7385, 0.7460