The Outliers Talisman

[Liquid validity]

I'm drunk but quite fascinated by this. I wish the hare would spill his beans too. He knows some sh1t about random. I just wonder whether it is the same sh1t or even the same random. Who knows. Goodnight.

Randomness, Tape and DOM reading, TA, FA, its all bullsh1t really.
All of those methods serve one purpose:
To provide a reason for entry and exit.
Thats it.

Randomness, TA and FA are more reliant on cutting your losses and letting winners run.
Obviously accuracy will vary between methods, even more so when
individual discretion is thrown into the mix.

Tape and DOM reading is a lot more accurate, but you pay with comms and
slippage instead of more frequent outright loss.

Apart from scalping using T&S + DOM, the single most important thing that will
create a profit is cutting losses early and running winners.

Randomness alone isn't enough...
Simon Kerr talks to David Harding - The Hedge Fund Journal
Extract:
"If you put in stops and run your profits and trade randomly you make money;
and if you put in targets and no stops, and you trade randomly you lose money.
So the old saw about cutting losses and running profits has some truth to it."

I wouldn't mind betting the secretive Rentech also employ similar methods,
not that they will ever admit it.

As far as randomness goes, there are plenty of ways to skin that cat.
Binary RNG, or use the market as your coin...numerous permutations.
As for spilling the beans in detail, I doubt anyone will do that, no reason to.

 

[darkcider]

Randomness, Tape and DOM reading, TA, FA, its all bullsh1t really.
All of those methods serve one purpose:
To provide a reason for entry and exit.
Thats it.

Randomness, TA and FA are more reliant on cutting your losses and letting winners run.
Obviously accuracy will vary between methods, even more so when
individual discretion is thrown into the mix.

Tape and DOM reading is a lot more accurate, but you pay with comms and
slippage instead of more frequent outright loss.

Apart from scalping using T&S + DOM, the single most important thing that will
create a profit is cutting losses early and running winners.

Randomness alone isn't enough...
Simon Kerr talks to David Harding - The Hedge Fund Journal
Extract:
"If you put in stops and run your profits and trade randomly you make money;
and if you put in targets and no stops, and you trade randomly you lose money.
So the old saw about cutting losses and running profits has some truth to it."

I wouldn't mind betting the secretive Rentech also employ similar methods,
not that they will ever admit it.

As far as randomness goes, there are plenty of ways to skin that cat.
Binary RNG, or use the market as your coin...numerous permutations.
As for spilling the beans in detail, I doubt anyone will do that, no reason to.

Thanks for the post LV.

At the moment i only have two trades, both were immediately in profit. However, later on in the journal there will be more trades, and hopefully, the data will raise some interesting points. As for your above post, i tend to agree with everything that you have put forward.

 

[darkcider]

Below is a 5 day volume chart. Incase anyone is wondering the volume is from the NYSE SPY.

View attachment todays buying volume.bmp

 

[darkcider]

Resting order No.4 BUY 1417.0.

View attachment order no.4.bmp

 

[darkcider]

Here's a 30 day view. A lot of buying should point to quite a bullish future. Large scale accumulation.

 

[counter_violent]

I'm drunk but quite fascinated by this. I wish the hare would spill his beans too. He knows some sh1t about random. I just wonder whether it is the same sh1t or even the same random. Who knows. Goodnight.

For the most part "randomness" will do, as long as strategies are developed that can take advantage of it.

However, there are most definitely times when the markets are not at all random and the bulk of profits, for me anyhow, come from knowing when to lump on and take full advantage of the unfolding market situation.

The random stuff just ticks along and is a justification for me being at the PC.
If I wasn't at the PC, then I couldn't take advantage of the non-random ops.

 

[darkcider]

For the most part "randomness" will do, as long as strategies are developed that can take advantage of it.

However, there are most definitely times when the markets are not at all random and the bulk of profits, for me anyhow, come from knowing when to lump on and take full advantage of the unfolding market situation.

The random stuff just ticks along and is a justification for me being at the PC.
If I wasn't at the PC, then I couldn't take advantage of the non-random ops.

Screen time is so important, in many ways. Not being able to be at the screen at certain times can be just as frustrating as anything else, in my experience. Trying to combat this issue as a working retailer/hobby trader, is probably the underlying reason as to why most lose money and pack it all in eventually.

 

[darkcider]

Order No.5 BUY 1415.0.

 

[darkcider]

The orders.

 

[Mike Kshemaraja]

The orders.

View attachment 134060

Dark

Thank you showing us how you do things. Generous.

Now, I have not read from the start the thread (but I will this weekend) and maybe my question may sound like I did not do my homework.

But in my view if I may say, that the underlying condition may have changed with the creation of new data. Is it wise keeping buying at a better price if the (and only if) the condition of pressure have inverted? Or that is part of the strategy?

Just a thought.

 

[darkcider]

Dark

Thank you showing us how you do things. Generous.

Now, I have not read from the start the thread (but I will this weekend) and maybe my question may sound like I did not do my homework.

But in my view if I may say, that the underlying condition may have changed with the creation of new data. Is it wise keeping buying at a better price if the (and only if) the condition of pressure have inverted? Or that is part of the strategy?

Just a thought.

Hi Mike.

I understand where you are coming from, and yes, if the market falls further away today i'll probably cancel the three orders.

Saying this, they are 'random' orders, so it shouldn't really matter that much. Better not put too much effort in.

 

[Mike Kshemaraja]

Hi Mike.

I understand where you are coming from, and yes, if the market falls further away today i'll probably cancel the three orders.

Saying this, they are 'random' orders, so it shouldn't really matter that much. Better not put too much effort in.

I see now.

 

[darkcider]

New orders for today:

6. BUY 1401.0
7. BUY 1405.0
8. BUY 1408.0
9. BUY 1412.0

Previous orders are still valid at the moment. Screen shots to follow (horrendous connection problems at the moment).

 

[darkcider]

As promised.

 

[darkcider]

Volume.

 

[darkcider]

After only three 'random' trades, i would have been better off reversing the trade parameters and running the profit. This is also taking into consideration the average 0.65 point spread.

 

[darkcider]

Don't be mislead though, i'm still ultra confident about the order that is in play (BUY 1401.0).

 

[darkcider]

Don't be mislead though, i'm still ultra confident about the order that is in play (BUY 1401.0).

Order No.6 trade No.3 take profit. From now on i'll just post the take profit every so often.

 

[darkcider]

Method Con:

1. Maximum exposure to account. Very risky.

Method pro:

1. Low level of time consumption. The trader is not tied to the screen for hours on end waiting to go market.

 

[darkcider]

Orders 10, 11 and 12.