timcannell
Member
- Messages
- 88
- Likes
- 1
Really; fib bar counts ? - are there no end to the ways of fib'ingFetteredChinos said:
?
?timcannell said:
Hard to argue with that Tim i would have thought.
Couldn't the collective brainpower (excluding me obviously) on this thread discuss some freely and publicly available concepts which like MM attempt to predict future turns / price points. We could then attempt to refine the main elements of these into something with KISS principles which we could then test by actually debating & making live future trade calls on this board & seeing how they pan out, whether they worked & if not, why.
Would that be breaching any confidentiality, offend anyone or be against any rules?
Mofo,
I'm not taking a pop at any one in particular, just trying to reinforce the point that if somebody rises to the challenge 'prove it, post some trades so we can check how often it's right' then it's silly to drown the guy out so nobody even notices if he does/does not post said trades for us to watch. I'm ever so cynical about MM myself, to put it mildly, but I figured it'd do me no harm to watch... who knows?
Didn't happen though, did it? How/why the method picks trades is immaterial at this stage.... you only need to know that if it appears to be able to predict accurately, but instead of Lobster posting a trade a day for 10 days... that would take a couple of pages then, one message a day for the prediction, one for the 'how I did yesterday', maybe a page worth of 'that's x out of y right/wrong'... we get 19 pages of the usual stuff, including everyones opinion of whether they think the idea has merit or not, when all they had to do was watch for trades and see if they panned out. I doubt they would, but by now I'd KNOW because I'd have seen the trades work/not work. Of course I'm no wiser now than I was at the start, because it never happened. Perhaps it would have been a good idea to split off an 'opinions' thread, and leave the 'posted trades' thread noise free?
If Mr Copan were involved in Lobster not posting the trades due a non-disclosure which prevented the posting of even the trades being produced then that would speak volumes to me. I can accept the need to protect the method employed to select trades, but the only reason to prevent trades being posted is because your system is crepe.
I think it's sad, whilst a healthy dose of cynicism is useful in trading nobody should close off any avenue based on opinion if hard facts can be accumulated instead.
Dave
I'm not taking a pop at any one in particular, just trying to reinforce the point that if somebody rises to the challenge 'prove it, post some trades so we can check how often it's right' then it's silly to drown the guy out so nobody even notices if he does/does not post said trades for us to watch. I'm ever so cynical about MM myself, to put it mildly, but I figured it'd do me no harm to watch... who knows?
Didn't happen though, did it? How/why the method picks trades is immaterial at this stage.... you only need to know that if it appears to be able to predict accurately, but instead of Lobster posting a trade a day for 10 days... that would take a couple of pages then, one message a day for the prediction, one for the 'how I did yesterday', maybe a page worth of 'that's x out of y right/wrong'... we get 19 pages of the usual stuff, including everyones opinion of whether they think the idea has merit or not, when all they had to do was watch for trades and see if they panned out. I doubt they would, but by now I'd KNOW because I'd have seen the trades work/not work. Of course I'm no wiser now than I was at the start, because it never happened. Perhaps it would have been a good idea to split off an 'opinions' thread, and leave the 'posted trades' thread noise free?
If Mr Copan were involved in Lobster not posting the trades due a non-disclosure which prevented the posting of even the trades being produced then that would speak volumes to me. I can accept the need to protect the method employed to select trades, but the only reason to prevent trades being posted is because your system is crepe.
I think it's sad, whilst a healthy dose of cynicism is useful in trading nobody should close off any avenue based on opinion if hard facts can be accumulated instead.
Dave
Thats fair enough Dave
I would have liked for rob's trade posting to happen too, but it didn't and i don't think its going to but not for the reason you're suggesting. in the absence of that, I was simply trying to keep discussion about the concepts on which MM is based open, & test them. obviously if there's no interest in doing that, then ok.
I would have liked for rob's trade posting to happen too, but it didn't and i don't think its going to but not for the reason you're suggesting. in the absence of that, I was simply trying to keep discussion about the concepts on which MM is based open, & test them. obviously if there's no interest in doing that, then ok.
timsk
Legendary member
- Messages
- 8,729
- Likes
- 3,425
DaveJB said:
Dave,
Surely this only applies to a system that is purely mechanical? My understanding is that MM requires input from the trader using it and therefore it has a discretionary element to it. To be fair to Steve Copan, he does stress the need to put in the work in order to get the results. On the audio interview with George Hallmey from ClickEvents he admits that he has losing trades which he puts down to 'human error'. Tom H' says much the same thing on his web site and in an e-mail to me he stresses that it's not the 'holy grail' but, nonetheless, it is far superior in his view to most other products that he's come across. True to say , I've no idea how many products of this type he's used or reviewed, but I think it's reasonable to assume that a fair few have come to his attention over the years. With this in mind, Robster4 may feel that he isn't yet a sufficiently experienced practioner of MM to post results which may or may not reflect the accuracy and usefulness of the system. It's quite possible that he could make a dozen calls and get every one wrong. Does that mean that MM is a French pancake or does it mean that Robster4 hasn't sussed out how to use it yet?
Tim.
Apologies for the radio-silence, but I think I should clear up a few things.
One of the reasons I haven't posted was that I've been in and out of the office for the last few days and don't get to day-trade all the time. The other reason is that some of the comments were getting nasty and personal.
I think everyone can agree that I posted the trades I was doing or looking at right at the time of actually doing them, which the time stamps will bear out, and they were successful, if not spectacular. The unspectacular nature was more due to my own inexperience rather than to the MM techniques.
I'm still guilty of not having the confidence to let my profits run (day-trading) but I very rarely take any drawdown now, and that has been worth its weight in gold, both results-wise and psychologically speaking. I'm still just a bit trigger-happy when closing out and I still have difficulty with the psychology of exit-and-reversal. My mind seems to get stuck on a direction and I just do the exit-with-profit bit. Again though, all these things will improve with experience.
The summary so far is that all in all, I'm 20% up on my traded capital (or equivalent) from when I started actively trading MM. That has comprised of several little moves and two decent size moves. I've been whipsawed twice (with very tight stops that then went back in my direction ) and got stung by an overnight position twice before retrieving the situation at the open. So far I have not got the direction wrong at all. That said, there are certain areas I'm looking to improve still.
In conclusion, I'm incredibly happy with MM and one of the main reasons is my almost complete elimination of drawdown. I'm planning a longer-term trade hopefully next week and will post when I'm sure.
Rob
PS: I should also add that Message Board posting is really not my thing and I'll be looking to stop soon anyway!
One of the reasons I haven't posted was that I've been in and out of the office for the last few days and don't get to day-trade all the time. The other reason is that some of the comments were getting nasty and personal.
I think everyone can agree that I posted the trades I was doing or looking at right at the time of actually doing them, which the time stamps will bear out, and they were successful, if not spectacular. The unspectacular nature was more due to my own inexperience rather than to the MM techniques.
I'm still guilty of not having the confidence to let my profits run (day-trading) but I very rarely take any drawdown now, and that has been worth its weight in gold, both results-wise and psychologically speaking. I'm still just a bit trigger-happy when closing out and I still have difficulty with the psychology of exit-and-reversal. My mind seems to get stuck on a direction and I just do the exit-with-profit bit. Again though, all these things will improve with experience.
The summary so far is that all in all, I'm 20% up on my traded capital (or equivalent) from when I started actively trading MM. That has comprised of several little moves and two decent size moves. I've been whipsawed twice (with very tight stops that then went back in my direction
) and got stung by an overnight position twice before retrieving the situation at the open. So far I have not got the direction wrong at all. That said, there are certain areas I'm looking to improve still. In conclusion, I'm incredibly happy with MM and one of the main reasons is my almost complete elimination of drawdown. I'm planning a longer-term trade hopefully next week and will post when I'm sure.
Rob
PS: I should also add that Message Board posting is really not my thing and I'll be looking to stop soon anyway!
Last edited:
Thanks for keeping us up to date, Robster.
I would not to have expected a return from those traders who were less successful in their chosen method of trading.
One thing I would like to mention, is that I don't think that any of the comments were directed at you personally. The general jist of the comments I felt were against Steve/Kevin selling what was considered a mediocre system at an inflated price.
It would be a loss if you were to decide not to visit the T2W boards again.
G-Man
I would not to have expected a return from those traders who were less successful in their chosen method of trading.
One thing I would like to mention, is that I don't think that any of the comments were directed at you personally. The general jist of the comments I felt were against Steve/Kevin selling what was considered a mediocre system at an inflated price.
It would be a loss if you were to decide not to visit the T2W boards again.
G-Man
robster4 said:Apologies for the radio-silence, but I think I should clear up a few things.
One of the reasons I haven't posted was that I've been in and out of the office for the last few days and don't get to day-trade all the time. The other reason is that some of the comments were getting nasty and personal.
I think everyone can agree that I posted the trades I was doing or looking at right at the time of actually doing them, which the time stamps will bear out, and they were successful, if not spectacular. The unspectacular nature was more due to my own inexperience rather than to the MM techniques.
I'm still guilty of not having the confidence to let my profits run (day-trading) but I very rarely take any drawdown now, and that has been worth its weight in gold, both results-wise and psychologically speaking. I'm still just a bit trigger-happy when closing out and I still have difficulty with the psychology of exit-and-reversal. My mind seems to get stuck on a direction and I just do the exit-with-profit bit. Again though, all these things will improve with experience.
The summary so far is that all in all, I'm 20% up on my traded capital (or equivalent) from when I started actively trading MM. That has comprised of several little moves and two decent size moves. I've been whipsawed twice (with very tight stops that then went back in my direction
In conclusion, I'm incredibly happy with MM and one of the main reasons is my almost complete elimination of drawdown. I'm planning a longer-term trade hopefully next week and will post when I'm sure.
Rob
PS: I should also add that Message Board posting is really not my thing and I'll be looking to stop soon anyway!
Good on you Rob, and very interested to hear about your reduction of drawdowns.
G-Man, greatly looking forward to your review also.
PS: I should also add that Message Board posting is really not my thing and I'll be looking to stop soon anyway![/QUOTE]
before you sign off - could you just elaborate on how much time it took you to come to grips with applying MM - i was too have been interested but from what i gather it requres some homework and i wondered just how much input it requires and how many days or weeks it took before you felt you could apply the sytem to place a trade
before you sign off - could you just elaborate on how much time it took you to come to grips with applying MM - i was too have been interested but from what i gather it requres some homework and i wondered just how much input it requires and how many days or weeks it took before you felt you could apply the sytem to place a trade
I have a short in at 1170 and a buy stop at 1174.8 right now.
EddieBear, it took me best part of 6-8 weeks to start thinking laterally enough to work things out for myself.
I still class myself as a beginner and have to learn how best to APPLY all this. I'm definitely improving - yesterday I didn't get whipped despite the huge swings...and I didn't panic either!
Rob
before you sign off - could you just elaborate on how much time it took you to come to grips with applying MM - i was too have been interested but from what i gather it requres some homework and i wondered just how much input it requires and how many days or weeks it took before you felt you could apply the sytem to place a trade[/QUOTE]
EddieBear, it took me best part of 6-8 weeks to start thinking laterally enough to work things out for myself.
I still class myself as a beginner and have to learn how best to APPLY all this. I'm definitely improving - yesterday I didn't get whipped despite the huge swings...and I didn't panic either!
Rob
eddiebear said:
before you sign off - could you just elaborate on how much time it took you to come to grips with applying MM - i was too have been interested but from what i gather it requres some homework and i wondered just how much input it requires and how many days or weeks it took before you felt you could apply the sytem to place a trade[/QUOTE]
Bigbusiness
Experienced member
- Messages
- 1,408
- Likes
- 23
Looks like that one went a bit wrong. It was still nice to see the post from robster4 and 1 trade doesn't mean a lot. I think the problem is, I wouldn't want to buy something as expensive as MM unless I can see how many times it works over a long period of time. I like to see how something works at least 100 times and in different market conditions. As there are so many free methods within T2win and on the internet, I don't feel the urge to reach for the credit card. It is also a lot more fun working on my own ideas than trying to work out how someone else does it. If it was £100, I might be tempted. Perhaps there will be an early summer sale
Well, that's what I call an inexpensive "mistake". We did bounce off 1170 and at the right time. At which point I pulled down my buy stops as above.
My miscalculation was that I was expecting a significant retrace and it didn't happen. In the end I was out by 1 point, which I can take like a man!
I think the point is that if I only have to take a small loss when I lose, that's ok by me.
Rob
My miscalculation was that I was expecting a significant retrace and it didn't happen. In the end I was out by 1 point, which I can take like a man!
I think the point is that if I only have to take a small loss when I lose, that's ok by me.
Rob
[/QUOTE]robster4 said:
robster4
Personally, I think you handled that well
Bigbusiness
Does something like this even exist? For free? for even £4000? Personally, I was very interested in what Rob4 did. He's never said he has the holy grail, but it was v.interesting indeed - certainly warrants more healthy discussion
Personally, I think you handled that well
Bigbusiness
Bigbusiness said:
Does something like this even exist? For free? for even £4000? Personally, I was very interested in what Rob4 did. He's never said he has the holy grail, but it was v.interesting indeed - certainly warrants more healthy discussion
Last edited: