The Journey from the Basement

Status
Not open for further replies.
DaveJB said:
In my current teacher incarnation I ask my science classes (the 12-13 yr olds), as we finish talking about the environment etc, "if global warming melts the ice caps, and polar bears and penguins live on the ice, what effect will global warming have on the number of Penguins eaten by Polar bears do you think?'
Interesting point Dave and one which could get us both banned if we go much further off topic.

New Scientist Article link
http://www.newscientist.com/news/news.jsp?id=ns99992411

Polar caps are melting and doing for the Penguins (especially the Rockhopper) what the Polar Bears never could - even if they could skate.

But Back to the lesson (and a hopefully successful attempt to avoid a banning order), it is a myth. It was a myth on the Islands long before the conflict.

British Antarctic Survey link
http://www.antarctica.ac.uk/News_and_Information/Stories/2000/penguin_disturbance.html

In addition, a close relative of mine (a then Major in the British Army) was doing some 'clearing up' exercises there has confirmed the myth status. Also, he mentioned the 'Bennie' episode, which if gentle readers wish I shall expand upon, but in a separate thread - probably 'joke of the day', but it isn't THAT funny...).

Back to the lesson though, it's a myth. How are myths born and how and why are they sustained? We are (well most of us) looking at this as an allegory to financial markets (and why not!).

But if you go one level higher and ask what is the 'point' of the lesson, not what the content might be about or what it might mean to you personally...

...it's the creation of myth within the ethos of rational, logical thought - the logos.

What might its purpose be - and, if you could do it, what would you do and with what intent?
 
Well I've enjoyed reading all the other interpretations to Sox's latest teaser - what fun these little exercises are. I particularly like Glenn's post (not surprising really, he struck me as a fairly talented trader some years ago). Anyway, one aspect of the story that I clearly overlooked was the human inhabitants noticing the strange phenomenon of the penguins ending up supine but struggling to find the reason for it. Could this be an analogy for investors seeing stocks continually fall, but failing to determine the reason - much like what happens in the bear market that follows a bull market, or more especially a bubble market?

Alex
 
Agreed, that is why I am carrying on with it, even if it upsets the idiots, who mercifully, are in the absolute minority. And, I might add that, as this goes even higher, there will be even less of them.
 
china white said:
very quickly - do u think Raikonen or Schui cud change tyres on their motors by themselves, without mechanics' help? :LOL:

LOL I daresay they could, but they probably wouldn't win very many races. Actually, thinking about it, this could make quite a good new twist to Formula 1: get rid of the pit crews and force the drivers to do all the maintenance (tyre-changes, refuelling, replacement wings, etc) themselves during their pit-stops.

Anyway, returning to the subject of the thread, I think the Formula 1 driver analogy can be extended further. The driver will switch to using his RP (Racing Persona) during a Grand Prix, but will use his DP (Driving Persona) outside of that environment, such as when he picks up the mother-in-law for Sunday lunch.

Alex
 
SOCRATES said:
Agreed, that is why I am carrying on with it, even if it upsets the idiots, who mercifully, are in the absolute minority.

Sox, which post is this in reply to?!? - Alex
 
In fact there is only one idiot, a professional idiot, and that is the Windmill, but he has gone very quiet as a consequence, to his dismay to see all his theories trashed and at his realisation that a thread does not motor towards 100,000 hits for no reason.
 
True to form, I am a bit slow to get the idea of training to get the TP !!
I think I understand Socrates request to train ourselves by watching a TV screen impassionately !

I remember a old 70's file, the Karate Kid.
In it the teacher got the kid to paint a fence, using ONLY up/down movements.
Then he got the kid to paint a wall using ONLY left/right movements.
Then he got the kid to polish a floor using ONLY circular movements.

The kid got frustrated, not knowing how this heloed him to learn karate.

BUT, the teacher was getting the kids body to learn kineasthetically ( ? ) key defensive movements.
In actual combat, the kids body was so used to the training, that when he was attacked, his body almost automatically defended itself through blocking moves through circular arm-movement, or up/down depending on thte nature of attack.

I suspect, the idea of watching a screen dispatcionaltey, is a similar way of getting the mind to able to look at something with no emotion.

When we eventually switch to a REAL trading screen, it should be easier to diminish emotional responses.

Please let this be right !!
 
No Trendie, not quite, don't go away and I will explain further specially for you.
 
Regarding Alex' point,
I think there ought to be a bit more to it than investors seeing stocks continually fall, unless we are talking about seeing the Dow being at say 1000 and still heading south, as one basic premise is that the helo is totally alien when seen.... however it could be that (say) the TMT crash at the end of the tech boom was such an event to those investors who learned to buy 'growth' shares in the 90's and did so little to learn anything more that they were unable to comprehend the crash as it happened.
There's a temptation to say the penguins did nothing by merely observing, but observing is an action - by standing still and watching the helo, or a market crash, nothing effective is being done if you are a penguin in the one case or invested in the second, but the HP is (in my view) telling us all is okay.

Internally we say to ourselves 'I'm watching the market closely, I'll do the appropriate thing when the time comes' thereby deluding ourselves that immobility is a sensible response.

Imagine you are long Dow at 9800 with a stop at 9780 but it gaps down to 6000 - we thought the stop would protect us, now we discover it didn't and are not prepared for an event because we thought it couldn't happen. Getting out at a much bigger loss than anticipated would hurt us so the HP gives us an alternative reaction that doesn't hurt.... watching. The HP leads us to say 'this is unprecendented, prices will rise back up of course' because we all know there's a piece of elastic attached to a price that ensures it snaps back t o where we know it ought to be - the further the fall, the tighter the elastic and the more rapid the eventual return to safety and all round happiness <g>
Dave
 
trendie said:
True to form, I am a bit slow to get the idea of training to get the TP !!
I think I understand Socrates request to train ourselves by watching a TV screen impassionately !

I remember a old 70's file, the Karate Kid.
In it the teacher got the kid to paint a fence, using ONLY up/down movements.
Then he got the kid to paint a wall using ONLY left/right movements.
Then he got the kid to polish a floor using ONLY circular movements.

The kid got frustrated, not knowing how this heloed him to learn karate.

BUT, the teacher was getting the kids body to learn kineasthetically ( ? ) key defensive movements.
In actual combat, the kids body was so used to the training, that when he was attacked, his body almost automatically defended itself through blocking moves through circular arm-movement, or up/down depending on thte nature of attack.

I suspect, the idea of watching a screen dispatcionaltey, is a similar way of getting the mind to able to look at something with no emotion.

When we eventually switch to a REAL trading screen, it should be easier to diminish emotional responses.

Please let this be right !!
The idea of looking at a TV screen is because as an object (a peice of furniture) , a TV screen is the closest we can get in similarity to a Trading Screen. Also moving pictures appear on a TV screen whereas on a trading screen there are also moving pictures in the form of live charts, which unfold in real time. On a TV screen there are in addition to moving pictures, sound. Sound is absent in trading screens. So both are similar yet very different, but the act of looking and observing is the same.

In both cases we use our eyes to look. We do not use our sense of smell, or taste. Therefore what we are interested to observe is how what we understand by what we see affects us via our HP. We do this in this way so as not to expose the HP to the trading screen so as not to alert it to develop new precautions to protect us from what in its view (whether correct or not, real or imagined, relevant or not relevant) life threatening or potentially life threatening, this is because the HP is not built to deal with the information shocks that trading delivers, but to protect us in whatever way it can, again, whether real or imagined, from what it perceives as life threatening or potentially life threatening.Do you understand this so far, because if not I will explain it again until you do understand it otherwise you will not progress.

If you understand the above, it means that you accept it. If you do not accept it, it means that you are kidding yourself that you understand it , but do not understand it, really. This does not mean you are stupid. Not at all. What it means and further illustrates is that the HP is taking even further measures to prevent you form developing something it knows will be outside its control and may even be (from its perspective) life threatening or potentially life threatening. You can now begin to understand the extreme measures that the HP takes to try to protect and preserve life. It looks for every point of weakness to butt in and stop you from doing what in its view it considers to be either risky or a threat to its role as protector of life.

What has to be done is to find a way, and this way is different for everyone, because we have all undergone life experiences that are formative, to dodge the patrols. The HP is on patrol all the time, subconsciously, looking to pinpoint thought or behaviour that it considers to be within its domain, which is the preservation of life. All of us have patrols, patrolling all the time looking for threats to the preservation of life. But each of our patrols is different. Each of us has a "thought police" on the beat all the time, looking to see if any of our thoughts or actions it considers a threat to life and this "thought police" is empowered subconsciously by us to carry out these duties, with our consent, because their protection in large measure helps us to stay alive, therefore we are grateful, and we allow it to exert huge power in deciding what we may and may not do or think provided none of it is life threatening

. But what happens is that caught up in this system to protect us are new ideas. All new ideas have to clear the scrutiny of the "thought police", trading included. The problem is that the HP is not constructed to deal with the information shocks deliverd by the trading environment and ourselves in it, already discussed at length in posts preceding this one on this thread.

The object of looking at a TV screen and watching programmes, is to have the opportunity to observe, without alerting the HP as to our intent, how we respond to different bits of information, by observing carefully how we respond to these. The object is to pinpoint our responses to what it is that is within our frame of reference, and how this makes us feel.
If we feel anything it is because we have developed an emotion relative to it, this means that the HP is on duty, vigilant, ready to protect us. We have to find a way of circumventing the supervision of the HP.

We have to find something for which we do not have a frame of reference such that the HP cannot and will not intervene. Through this gap we must make our escape, to start to build the TP as a key to trading freedom. This construction must be independent of the HP and carried out under its nose, but in a way that prevents it from interfering and spoiling it. And that , put simply is the mission.
 
In the phase of development that follows the TP is independent and is able to act according to its reason, by logically deducing and acting accordingly, without emotion in an oasis of extreme calm in which the ability to act in a nanosecond is preserved. The TP now additionally has to be armoured in addition to prevent it being damaged. An added bonus to this additional armouring is its preservation of being "not damaged". This non damaged condition allows it to develop further faculties of the Human Biomind Capability. One of these is the ability to futorologise.

Thus Futurology is a direct result of the impariality that emanates from a completely developed and properly armoured TP. As not many have been able to achieve this, then when they see Futurology in action, by virtue of the fact that it is not and cannot be included in their frame of reference because of the inabilities rendered by the HP as detailed in some measure by the above, then the their HP rears its ugly head and tries to justify it according to their frame of reference which is not mine, and incidentally wrong.

What happens is that the detractors get nasty and offensive and so on, as you can now see why it is that they are wired differently. The fact that their wiring is different to mine is not my fault, but theirs. They are in some degree to be pitied. And one particular individual who is particularly nasty is treading on thin ice with me both here and in the United States, as typified by the penguin illustrated on post no 930 # Ha ! Ha ! Ha !
 
Last edited:
My penguins in post 930 are mostly in PPP mode (Penguin People Persona) as against PTP (Penguin Trading Personality mode)

The dancing penguins are euphoric at having completed a profitable deal in september squid futures and the disappearing one is being punished for daring to talk about indicators and reading comics.;)

Of the visible penguins Only the first penguin shown in post 927 is in PTP mode and of course he represents an alternative Operating System (OS) as referred to in my post 886. He may be described as Linguin HAHAHA
 
SOCRATES said:
The object of looking at a TV screen and watching programmes, is to have the opportunity to observe, without alerting the HP as to our intent, how we respond to different bits of information, by observing carefully how we respond to these. The object is to pinpoint our responses to what it is that is within our frame of reference, and how this makes us feel.
If we feel anything it is because we have developed an emotion relative to it, this means that the HP is on duty, vigilant, ready to protect us. We have to find a way of circumventing the supervision of the HP.
Socrates, would using a t2w session be even more useful in this endeavour? No sound - better than a TV (and even more like trading screen), no idle nonsense such as a TV may distract us with and certainly a much higher probability of experiencing some emotions.

It also requires (in most, anyway) a sense of involvement which would definitely be present in the TP during a trading session. Watching ourselves watching TV it might be a little too easy to imagine we had found a way to circumvent the supervision of our HP.
 
The multitasking demands imposed upon us when posting, such as spelling, composition, grammar, punctuation, typing, reading, and so on are conscious acts. These conscious acts soak up all our attention, because they are objective. Watching a TV screen is subjective and therefore allows us to do the exercise to its full potential by not imposing upon us actions that engage our conscious attention.
Also watching a TV screen there is variety of menu in terms of images, themes, sounds, and other stimuli which are normal everyday topics and easy to adopt a subjective posture to. This allows us to relax sufficiently to enable ourselves to put our attention on our kinesthetic responses, instead of our intellectual responses, which is what we are after, so that the HP can reveal to us where the sentries are posted. These are the first steps required to start to plan an escape from the HP to be free of its supervision to separately construct and develop the TP.
 
a bit late in the fray but if the penguins are traders flat on their backs and inactive after seeing an unusual occurence in the market then I'm a bit bemused by the Pick up a Penguin Patrol. In my experience when you're flat on your back someone comes along and puts the boot in. On reflection the Patrol can only be those constructive T2W members who take some of their valuable time to offer good advice in their posts.

So far as HP and Tp are concerned I suppose the best way to turn off ones HP is to walk away. Make your entry, put in your stop loss and take profit orders, pull the plug and go and have a glass of wine.
 
Another interpretation

Hi,

I'll go along with the excellent comments about observing and being mesmerized by new phenomena.

My own personal learning is by standing back and looking at the whole picture, it may prevent you from falling flat on your back. In the penguins case a few hundred metres might have done the trick, but in the market this means different time frames for me.

What may be a steep rise/drop in one time frame is no more than a blip in another time frame.

Obvious to the old hands no doubt but I hadn't seen it mentioned yet.

Also ... while typing, ... and reading the link to the penguins don't fall over provided by TheBramble, the penguins are standing guarding their eggs. So the additional lesson is staying in a fixed position (opinion) can also land you on your back!
 
These animal stories are all excellent in different ways. I personally don't think there is any one solution to any of them. Socrates is aiming to make us all think hard about what it is that we are doing and what it is that we should be doing.

It is very easy to set one self up as a trader and rapidly empty the trading account - it is also too easy to flirt with the idea of being a trader. It is easy to convince yourself that you are taking on board the advice that is given but the reality is that the largest percentage of us don't do what we should i.e. the really hard work required before there is any hope of consistent success.

This thread addresses what is accepted to be the most important aspect of trading - the psychological issues. Despite the enormous interest there has been in it in terms of viewing there are only a few stalwarts prepared to stick with it. Of those few even fewer seem to really take the bottom line message on board

Now to the Penguins.

Those penguins could be frozen at the sight of the strange helicopters and the disturbing noise they make. They haven't come across anything like this beforeand it is totally outside their expectations. It is an INFORMATION SHOCK of the most ferocious nature for which they are totally unprepared. Their Penguin personas have been formed by generations of experience of living in peace on these remote islands with plenty of food and no disturbance from man. They have always been undisturbed and their lives unchanged from season to season. Now this is all gone and they FREEZE in a panic.

They are an allegory for traders suffering from the information shock of man's presence as delivered via the helicopters and because they don't have a means of handling it they are helpless.
 
Last edited:
firehorse said:
Hi,

I'll go along with the excellent comments about observing and being mesmerized by new phenomena.

My own personal learning is by standing back and looking at the whole picture, it may prevent you from falling flat on your back. In the penguins case a few hundred metres might have done the trick, but in the market this means different time frames for me.

What may be a steep rise/drop in one time frame is no more than a blip in another time frame.

Obvious to the old hands no doubt but I hadn't seen it mentioned yet.

Also ... while typing, ... and reading the link to the penguins don't fall over provided by TheBramble, the penguins are standing guarding their eggs. So the additional lesson is staying in a fixed position (opinion) can also land you on your back!
And , in addition it is important to look at Penguin behaviour to see what we can learn, by default, that means in effect by learning what is missing from Penguin behaviour.

You see, Penguins are aclimatised to surviving in and overcoming extreme weather and cilmatic conditions. I will expand on this. Further down in the Antartic, large colonies of Penguins hacve evolved methods of staying alive in extreme low temperatures and through biting winds and wicked snowstorms.They do this by eating voraciously in the Antartic autumn in order to put on an extra layer of fat to help them survive the winter. During the winter they huddle together for warmth in huge flocks of anything up to 5000 at a time.

They form themselves into a concentrated mass, and shuffle about incessantly to keep warm. This is not all. They take turns between them as to who is going to be on the outside edge. Because they rotate, their exposure varies. It is much colder on the edge facing the wind because of the wind chill effect than it is on the other side, which is in the lee of the wind and in the lee of whatever marginal warmth there is blown over from the flock. But they take it in turns to be on the outside edge and rotate so that they have periods in the centre so that they can recover from heat loss sufficiently to be able to venture to the edge again.

The baby penguins are very vulnerable. They have to be protected. They represent the future of the flock. The adults keep them in the very centre of the flock to ensure that they are kept warm. As their litle flippers are very tender, the adults permit them to stand on their own flippers so that they do not get frostbitte. As the duty adults carriying out this caring function have to take their turn at the edge, the babies are passed from one adult penguin to another, and end up standing on the feet of every adult member. This is a bonding process as well , for the entire flock. When the baby penguins grow up , they also have to take their turn at being the "shoes" for the new babies. This shift in duty is a right of passage. Also the younger ones who are well fed and strong have greater exposure at the edge. so you see within this rotating flock that appears to rotate and shuffle endlessly there is order, although at first it may not seem likely. This is part instinctive and partly learnt behaviour.

Penguins can not fly. Therefore their world on the ice and on land has a horizontal perspective. The luxury of a bird's eye view as enjoyed by other birds is not available to them.
Therefore we can say that penguins are very familiar with being upright when on land and otherwise when in the sea. We can now reason that the "penguin persona" has a perimeter of development beyond which there is no need to learn anything new.

When a helicopter or an aircraft passes overhead, this knowledge is not included in the penguins' mindmap of the world it inhabits. The penguins are puzzled. They are intrigued by these whirring things above them. They are not afraid, but equally these new things do not appear in their frame of reference. They do not know how to cope with them in advance.
They are unaware that looking up may upset their balance, and that unless they are floating, it is not possible for them to get on their feet unaided. Therefore they are caught unaware by their lack of knowledge in advance of an event and topple over backwards.

The PPP Patrol comes to rescue them by putting them again on their feet. This for them is experiential. After the experience is repeated several times they learn not to look up and follow the flying object but to spin round to look at it coming towards them and away from them. What is happening here ? The penguins in terms of "penguin logic" learn what to do and what not to do. The object is the preservation of life. Even in primitive forms of life the preservation of life mechanism is present. Hence the protection of the young, the rotation, and later not falling over backwards,. The penguin persona becomes armoured.

This is very similar to what happens to human beings as they grow up. Knowledge leads to experience, and experience leads to armouring.

This does no mean that the penguins are armoured for everything. They are armoured until another event occurs which does form part of their frame of reference. It will take time before the correct frame of reference is worked out via knowledge and experience , leading to armouring.

As the great majority of human beings are more sophisticated than penguins, therefore the frames of reference, the knowledge and experience is different, hopefully at a much more sophisticated level. Nevertheless comparatively speaking there are areas which as a consequence of remaining unexposed either to knowledge or experience, these areas remain lightly armoured or not at all. These are the areas available in which to develop the TP, right under the nose of the HP, without the HP able to do anything about it. Those of us who are very streetwise are not at an advantage in this respect. Perhaps those of us who are naive are at a better advantage. But we must all try to develop a TP if we are to be able to trade successfully, repeatedly, at will, on command, as the correct opportunity presents itself.
 
barjon said:
a bit late in the fray but if the penguins are traders flat on their backs and inactive after seeing an unusual occurence in the market then I'm a bit bemused by the Pick up a Penguin Patrol. In my experience when you're flat on your back someone comes along and puts the boot in. On reflection the Patrol can only be those constructive T2W members who take some of their valuable time to offer good advice in their posts.

So far as HP and Tp are concerned I suppose the best way to turn off ones HP is to walk away. Make your entry, put in your stop loss and take profit orders, pull the plug and go and have a glass of wine.
Yes Barjon, all this is very well and good provided there is a strong preventative measure in place to prevent you from going back to your screen, etc.,

Your approach to this , being via the HP constitutes that your exit is also via the HP.
In this there is risk. Risk that the HP is stimulated to have another crack, for the wrong reason.

The TP in contradistiction is not subject to these risks. The TP cannot be stimulated (because it is not subject to emotions) to have another crack. The TP is able to get the
prize and walk away with it. Neither is it affected and stimulated if the trade is not a successful one.

Therefore the TP is the ideal condition for a trader. The HP is the ideal condition for a human being. You must not muddle the two. You may muddle if you like, all I am saying is that I do not and will not muddle.

Kind Regards.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Top