The FTSE Monday, 12th December 2005
Friday's results:
Open: 5531.
Close: 5517, down 13pts.
Range: 5504 - 5531.
On the Month: up 94pts. Too high by 20ish pts, but this can be smoothed out as the month progresses.
Last 5 trading days: down 11pts.
Dow: 10,778, up 23pts. It clipped 800 today and then dropped. In all fairness, the DOW's had a rough time since November 28th, when it reached a healthy, but somewhat overstretched, 10,932. I believe Tuesday will dictate whether it will rise or fall for the rest of the month.
Last 5 trading days: down 98pts.
News items of note:
HEMEL HEMPSTEAD (Reuters) - 'Explosions tore through a fuel depot north of London before dawn on Sunday, creating a huge tower of smoke and flame and seriously injuring two people in what police said appeared to be an accident.' - Not sure how the market will react this Monday, if at all.
NEW YORK (Reuters) - 'For the stock market, getting the stalled Santa Claus rally back on track this week will depend on the Federal Reserve's call on interest rates, retail sales and resurgent energy prices.
Another quarter-point rate increase is expected at Tuesday's Fed meeting. But investors are hoping the Fed will change its statement and indicate its long streak of rate increases will end soon.' - Judging by the DOW's performance of late I would say that a rate hike has already been factored in.
Charts, and nothing but the charts: Friday's was undecided but did err towards a rise. Monday's, no strong indication but two out of three charts favour a rise.
Companies reporting:
LLOYDS TSB
Economic Data:
Note: FOMC on Tuesday
19:00 US Treasury Budget Nov Last -$57.9bn Forecast -$82.0bn {this is making me nervous!}
The FTSE tomorrow based on present news and data: the DOW ended on a positive note which will add a slight smile to the FTSE’s early morning face; in general the charts favour a small rise; economic data is the one to watch.
Early gut feeling: a 60% chance of a small early rise.
Will I bet? I like Mondays. This year, twenty-six up days versus sixteen down. As I'm working tomorrow, I'm going with a small Long capped at a 12pt max profit.
The week ahead: Tuesday is the one to watch.
If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.
Yours
UK
