The FTSE Monday, 7th November 2005
Fridays results:
Open: 5431.
Close: 5423, down 8pts.
Range: 5418 - 5446. Well, the FTSE did pretty much as I anticipated, playing see-saw with its opening price and therefore the devil to make profit.
On the Month: up 106pts. Too high by 40pts.
Last 5 trading days: up 210pts to make it four up one down.
Dow: 10,530, up 8pts.
News items of note:
AFX News - 'Natural-gas futures closed Friday at their lowest level since August, down almost 13 pct for the week, while crude-oil futures fell over 1 usd a barrel to end the week with a loss of 1 pct, dealers said. Forecasts for mild US weather and recovering output in the Gulf of Mexico worked to quell anxiety about heating-fuel inventories. 'The official heating season began this week amid bearish fundamentals of mild temperatures nationwide and predictions of a warmer-than-normal winter season,' Ronald Barone, an analyst at UBS, said in a research note.'
NEW YORK (Reuters) - 'U.S. stocks could edge higher this week on hopes for strong holiday spending after retailers' October sales were healthier than expected. Crude oil prices at $60 a barrel, though, could spoil the mood on Wall Street. Some market strategists see stocks struggling for direction, with most earnings reports out of the way and little on the economic agenda likely to move the market this week.'
TIMESONLINE - 'The annual rate of increase in house prices edged up to a five-month high in October, the Halifax reported this morning. Offering further evidence of a stabilising property market, the nation’s largest mortgage lender said on Friday that the annual increase in the three months to October hit its highest since May at 3.9 per cent, up from 3.0 per cent the month before.' - Good news indeed.
TIMESONLINE - 'THE services sector is growing at a much stronger rate than expected, a leading survey showed yesterday, making a decision by the Bank of England to hold interest rates next week all but certain.
The CIPS purchasing managers’ index of services activity rose to 56.1 last month from 55 in September, the highest level for three months. Analysts said it pointed to a more robust rate of expansion in the sector than official data had suggested, in part because the survey does not include the more gloomy retail sector.
Analysts took the index as confirmation that the Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will keep interest rates on hold next week, with some stating that the data suggested the MPC’s rate cut in August will prove a one-off.' - More good news.
Charts, and nothing but the charts: Fridays was no clear indication, but they did err on the side of a down. Monday a small rise.
Companies reporting: Easyjet and Netteller; not enough to change the FTSE's hat.
The FTSE tomorrow based on present news and data: economic news is promising, but still not enough to move the market into 5th gear; charts say a small rise; the DOW has no hand in the FTSE'S opening; in the past five trading days the FTSE has risen too quickly.
The week ahead: although, in a previous post, I believed the FTSE would rise by not more then 150pts by the end of the month, this coming week I anticipate a 55 - 75pt rise. This will move the FTSE from a moderate rising and into the realms of a strong rising market. If I'm right, it will make my earlier prediction totally defunct!
Early gut feeling: a fall. Totaly bizzare! But that's gut feelings for you.
Will I bet? Yes. I'm going along with my data for a Long bet. If the market dips tomorrow I intend to hold my position for the coming week.
If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.
yours
UK
