jazzidee
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Yes!
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Yes!
Quality, intelligent response sir! You surely must be a profitable trader and all who frequent these boards should bow down to your superior opinions.
Oh wait... No, sorry.. Got that wrong.
Gamma - I wanted a reaction to my post so I worded it strongley but I would certainly act the same in reality. What's gone on in this journal is ridiculous.
jazzidee
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I guess you want me to write an essay about how dumb you are or repeat the points I made in earlier postings.
40 pages of complete rubbish posted by other members such as yourself proves I'm not the one who took over this thread.
But yeah, I'm offski. Those who don't have the intelligence to understand what I said aren't worth bothering with and those who do won't say anything I need to respond to.
megamuel
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I don't understand why some people get so irate over what they read on here. There is enough stress in my life as it is without worrying about what people say on here! Can't we all just get along and be friends?! Maybe even help eachother... Thats what this forum is for isn't it?!
fiatmoney
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Some guys concentrate on increasing the size of thier ego and post count - I'd rather concentrate on my account size...
jazzidee
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Listen to yourself, bragging about your imaginary brilliance and insight. You read through 40 pages of "complete rubbish" and came to the conclusion that we are "complete and utter morons" and with that same breath proclaimed how intelligent and unprofitable you are as a trader. I think you just have a lot in common with Mebs, especially your uncanny desire to name call. I rather be a profitable moron than an imaginary and delusional intellectual.
trendie
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I suppose, someone could take historical data, and taking each price point, count the time elapsed before it is hit again. eg, take the Highs and Lows of each daily bar, and then count forwards to when that same price is hit. (I am assuming the trader went long/short at worst possible time, eg, went long at a daily high/low, etc)
Perhaps it may be possible to show the average elapsed time for price to revisit itself.
And perhaps also show outlier events, such as the greatest time between price revisits.
This wouldnt show the amount price went offside. (unless you wanted to, of course)
This might bring some objective insights about taking a trade and keeping it open; the average drawdowns, the average time to revisit, etc.
This might allow us to see if the system is objectively valid, and/or show to medbs the odds that it would objectively blow the account.
Perhaps it may be possible to show the average elapsed time for price to revisit itself.
And perhaps also show outlier events, such as the greatest time between price revisits.
This wouldnt show the amount price went offside. (unless you wanted to, of course)
This might bring some objective insights about taking a trade and keeping it open; the average drawdowns, the average time to revisit, etc.
This might allow us to see if the system is objectively valid, and/or show to medbs the odds that it would objectively blow the account.
Windowsill
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Well lets check it out shall we
Cable reached a high Summer 2007, then reached a low in Jan 2009, retrace as we speak, possible couple of years (tears) of consolidation........then may start moving up
In the investment advice world they say allow 5 years for growth.....wonder why!!I think the aim of this retaliation to medbs ignorant claims is to actually help the guy out. Simon cowell don't care about what the family of the idiotic contestant think. Medbs obviously lives a sheltered life with idiots close to him telling him he's good.
bbmac
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rationale
Strange reaction by LiamH, whilst it is true the thread starter asked us to judge him at the end of May, the truth of the matter is that on the open trades- Long Gbpusd 5150 (leverage 3:1) Long Eurusd 2665 and 2595 (Leverage assumed as 10:1 on supposed 'non risky trades') the current drawdown is around -55% on the eurusd trades ands -18% on the gbpusd trade totalling a current unrealised loss of -73% on a/c. The question I was posing was whether this was a good use of a/c margin as opposed to cutting losses short and moving onto the next trading opportunity.
Clearly Medbs over-riding criteria is to preserve the supposed 100% winning strike rate whatever the effect on other key variables and I would further speculate that the length of time betwwen the batch of trades around the gbpusd long 5150 call and the next call was due to a loss of confidence in the methodology...this is based on the distribution of calls/market conditions to that point.
My purpose in contrinuting to the thread is simply to point out the folly of this tactical approach to both the Thread Starter as well as readers of the thread.
Strange reaction by LiamH, whilst it is true the thread starter asked us to judge him at the end of May, the truth of the matter is that on the open trades- Long Gbpusd 5150 (leverage 3:1) Long Eurusd 2665 and 2595 (Leverage assumed as 10:1 on supposed 'non risky trades') the current drawdown is around -55% on the eurusd trades ands -18% on the gbpusd trade totalling a current unrealised loss of -73% on a/c. The question I was posing was whether this was a good use of a/c margin as opposed to cutting losses short and moving onto the next trading opportunity.
Clearly Medbs over-riding criteria is to preserve the supposed 100% winning strike rate whatever the effect on other key variables and I would further speculate that the length of time betwwen the batch of trades around the gbpusd long 5150 call and the next call was due to a loss of confidence in the methodology...this is based on the distribution of calls/market conditions to that point.
My purpose in contrinuting to the thread is simply to point out the folly of this tactical approach to both the Thread Starter as well as readers of the thread.
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Chances are you're not profitable. I'm not profitable because I haven't traded in over a year and don't plan to until my method is proven.
That's irrelevant though - You and others seem to be taking my posts out of context.
This is Medbs trading journal, he asked for no criticism until the end of May and he said this at the start of the journal yet you all ignored his requests in his journal and continued to berate him and make ill informed assumptions about the way he trades.
My point is you do not know how he trades and therefore cannot comment.
Please tell me what you know about his trading style that allows you to make the judgements you have made?
wackypete2
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WRONG.
He uses no stops, lets trades go 900 pips more or less offside, and is more concerned about his 100% claim than about his unrealized losses.
Thats what we know about his trading style and that entitles one to make certain judgements about his trading. Regardless of the outcome this is not a prudent way to trade. Any reasonable, sane, profitable trader would come to the same conclusion, again, regardless of his final outcome.
Peter
The guy has 200k 100k i profit from the trades before as far as i can see. He's long audusd from 0.9103 apparently only 3:1 leverage as it was a "highly risky trade", also long gbpusd from 1.5150 another "highly risky trade" only 3:1 leverage. so down 13% on gbpusd and 8% down audusd, so thats down 42k. Eurusd is not a "highly risky trade" and hes long 10:1 from both 1.2665 and 1.2595. Thats down 23% and 18% of his account, which is 82k so thats down 124k currently. 1.2665 happened to be a fibonacci retracement support line. Unfortunately some people out there might look at this and see his 14 winning trades and think hes a judge and maybe they deserve it, but i think this website should be more dedicated to realistic strategies, besides the guy said he wouldnt offer any risky trades and he has done already, the eurusd trades. You need to read the whole journal. Plus his system is only backtested 7 months.
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Seriously guys this is frustrating. It doesn't matter whether or not you agree with the strategy. It is not your strategy and this is not your journal.
You should respect the op's wishes, there was no harm in waiting until the end of May to add your opinions as he asked.
This is all I'm saying.
Also, you don't know that he uses no stops. He actually said that he uses large stops. The point is that while he is having these winning trades whether they go 1000pts offside or not, provided he makes more than 100% of his account and cashes it out before he has a big loser then he is a profitable trader and this is a profitable strategy.
And you're using assumed levels of leverage to determine his drawdown? Has he told you what percentage of his account he is using for margin? That's a pretty important part of the calculation you seem to be missing.
He could have a 100k account using 1% for margin. That's £1000 with a 2000pt stop as an example, this would be a trade at 50p per point. 1000pts offside only equals 0.5% drawdown. To trade at 50p per point with £1000 for margin he would be using alot more than 10:1 leverage and yet his potential drawdown on that trade is only 1%.
You should respect the op's wishes, there was no harm in waiting until the end of May to add your opinions as he asked.
This is all I'm saying.
Also, you don't know that he uses no stops. He actually said that he uses large stops. The point is that while he is having these winning trades whether they go 1000pts offside or not, provided he makes more than 100% of his account and cashes it out before he has a big loser then he is a profitable trader and this is a profitable strategy.
And you're using assumed levels of leverage to determine his drawdown? Has he told you what percentage of his account he is using for margin? That's a pretty important part of the calculation you seem to be missing.
He could have a 100k account using 1% for margin. That's £1000 with a 2000pt stop as an example, this would be a trade at 50p per point. 1000pts offside only equals 0.5% drawdown. To trade at 50p per point with £1000 for margin he would be using alot more than 10:1 leverage and yet his potential drawdown on that trade is only 1%.
He showed us his statement and it shows the lot size he was using almost all his trades were 10 lots. What you dont understand is that if eurusd goes down another 300 ticks his account should be 0. he also told us exactly what leverage he uses. We are not assuming his leverage, its just we can do math. 10:1 leverage means if he has 200k in his account hes doing a 2mio trade. 50p per point on eurusd at 1.24 is 6200 GBP which is 6.2:1 leverage so its not 10:1 leverage. I think you are getting confused about leverage.
if you are leveraged 10:1 that means if the currency pair moves against you by 2% you lose 20%, because you bought 10 times your account value. It's pretty simple. So with these non risky trades his leverage as he told us is 3:1 and GBPUSD has moved 4.3% against him so thats 4.3 x 3 = 12.9%. EURUSD has moved 2.3% and 1.8% against him on 10:1 leverage so thats 2.3 x 10 + 1.8 x 10 = 41%. 41% x 200k = 82k.
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jazzidee
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You are not profitable because you don't have a plan, not because you haven't traded in a year. Your logic begs me to question your so called intellect that you keep raving about. He showed everything about his trading except for why he enters and if you had one iota of intellect then you could deduce that from his posts. I am a very successful swing trader and I wonder why you would assume that I wasn't as I never gave you any reason. I guess you read my comments and came to that conclusion but you couldn't read medbs post and make one about his trading plan? I just think you're a buy and hope guy like medbs and deep down you are just defending yourself. Get help!
1) I haven't raved about my intellect - Only that others aren't intelligent enough to understand something simple (This is Medbs journal and he asked that you wait until the end of May to criticise).
2) I have a plan and always had a plan. It's just that my plan a couple of years ago wasn't very good and I'm happy to admit that.
3) I said 'chances are you aren't profitable'. Why this comment? Well, if 95% of traders lose money then it stands to reason that more than 9 out of 10 members of this board are not profitable therefore there is a higher chance that you are not profitable than there is of you being profitable.
Look, this has blown out of proportion but has provided me with some entertainment at work so whatever. I don't particularly care about Medbs methodology, I don't care if it's the holy grail. My only gripe is that you have all blown him to bits when he asked you not to judge until the end of May. Simple really.
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