The Difference between Risk & Uncertainty - Poll #1

[brewski1984]

I guess you only have one chance to choose.....right? so "long term" doesn't apply because this will be an average over time for box B.

Also you cannot define a concrete % for box B, therefore you cannot compare between box A and B together.....because they are different.

To say no edge isn't true....to say there is an edge isn't true either as box B is not known.

Yes but you're looking at it after the event, for example saying if I'd gone with box B I would have had 70% chance of winning so box B was the best choice.

If you were ladbrokes, what odds would you give someone else on pulling a red ball from box B (providing you didn't have inside info)?

 

[robster970]

The two options are equal

Its a study to show how people often prefer to gamble with a known chance of winning as opposed to not knowing what the chance of winning is ..

So whoever votes for Box A is more risk averse preferring the safer option even though the Box B has the same chance

Best answer on here so far imo.

 

[barjon]

...........If you were ladbrokes, what odds would you give someone else on pulling a red ball from box B ................

If I were Ladbrokes I'd offer 4:5 on a red from box A and a mouthwatering 20:1 on a red from box B in the knowledge that all the balls in it were black

 

[Triggerfish]

Yes but you're looking at it after the event, for example saying if I'd gone with box B I would have had 70% chance of winning so box B was the best choice.

If you were ladbrokes, what odds would you give someone else on pulling a red ball from box B (providing you didn't have inside info)?

No! not after the event but actually before the event.

Box B 70% is a made up number!....an assumption which isn't true before the event.

ladbrokes.....sorry, am not a gambler nor do I play dice!

 

[trade2windows]

No! not after the event but actually before the event.

Box B 70% is a made up number!....an assumption which isn't true before the event.

ladbrokes.....sorry, am not a gambler nor do I play dice!

The first point is that if one is thinking in terms of the probability of a favourable outcome, then there is no reason to prefer a ball to be drawn from one pot rather than the other in either of the two variants of Pat`s game. In the case of Pot A, we know that the probability of drawing a red ball (or a black ball) is 1 in 2 (50%). This is also the case for Pot B, even though the precise number of red balls (and black balls) it contains is unknown.

To understand why it is necessary to consider what follows from the fact that all combinations of red and black balls are equally likely. This means that the probability that Pot B will contain (50 - n) red balls is identical to the probability that it will contain (50 + n) red balls (where n is any number between 0 and 50). The n’s here cancel each other out, leaving an overall probability of 50 out of 100 (or 1 in 2).

If that’s not clear, think in terms of particular numbers. For example, the probability that the pot will contain 49 red balls (and 51 black balls) is identical to the probability that it will contain 51 red balls (and 49 black balls); the probability of 48 red balls (and 52 black balls) is the same as it is for 52 red balls (and 48 black balls) and and so on.
This means that the average probability across all possible combinations of red and black balls that a red ball (or black ball) will be drawn (given that the pot contains 100 balls in total, and all combinations of red and black balls are equally likely) is 50 out of 100 - that is, 1 in 2 (50%).

This means that whichever pot was selected made no difference to the chance of a red ball being drawn,

 

[Trader333]

This means that whichever pot was selected made no difference to the chance of a red ball being drawn,

Which is why I didn't vote.

 

[trade2windows]

Its all about how each of us perceive risk

It be like me offering you a lottery ticket

1 ticket has the numbers : 1,2,3,4,5,6

The Other has : 2,13,20,25,33,38

The probability of winning are the same but how many would pick ticket 1 over ticket 2

 

[Forexmospherian]

Its all about how each of us perceive risk

It be like me offering you a lottery ticket

1 ticket has the numbers : 1,2,3,4,5,6

The Other has : 2,13,20,25,33,38

The probability of winning are the same but how many would pick ticket 1 over ticket 2

You are correct T2windows

But i would chose the random numbers - because if you won say £5 mill on 1 2 3 4 5 6 - then I sure many would say something is wrong - the machine is not working correctly as 6 consecutive numbers coming up out of 49 is like billions to one against what should happen

In fact in 19 years of the lottery I do not think there as ever been a 6 consecutive number main win ??

So on past odds - dont pick 123456 - lol

Ok - I wait for some one to tell me I am wrong


F

 

[robster970]

You are wrong FoMo. They have equal probability.

Why is 1,2,3,4,5,6 less probable than 2,12,27,45,48,49?

 

[brewski1984]

I actually read somewhere that there are a lot of people out there who play 1,2,3,4,5,6 every week.

Exactly the same odds as any other combination.

 

[trade2windows]

You are correct T2windows

But i would chose the random numbers - because if you won say £5 mill on 1 2 3 4 5 6 - then I sure many would say something is wrong - the machine is not working correctly as 6 consecutive numbers coming up out of 49 is like billions to one against what should happen

In fact in 19 years of the lottery I do not think there as ever been a 6 consecutive number main win ??

So on past odds - dont pick 123456 - lol

Ok - I wait for some one to tell me I am wrong


F

LIke Robster says ,yes you are wrong ..but it gets interesting when say you have picked ticket 1 and I have ticket 2
So i walk up to you and say Hey Fomo ,you dont have as much chance of winning as I do and you agree so I say to you i will swap tickets with you if you pay me a small fee
You agree and now you are out of pocket and still have the same chance of winning

 

[Forexmospherian]

You are wrong FoMo. They have equal probability.

Why is 1,2,3,4,5,6 less probable than 2,12,27,45,48,49?

I agree they in theory have equal probability

But if you look at facts over last 19 years - more winners with non consecutive numbers

Not saying you cannot win on 123456 - or 35 36 37 38 39 40 - but just on the past 19 years - nearly 20 yrs -and 1000 + draws - you would have not done as well as other punters using non consecutive numbers

YES - the world could stop tomorrow

But on last 2000+ years we dont expect it

YES someone might win the lottery on 123456 next week - or next year - or next decade

But more likely the next 1000 draws will feature with non consecutive winners


Regards


F

 

[brewski1984]

If I'm trying to flip 10 heads in a row and after 3 hours I get to 9 heads, what's the odds I flip heads the 10th time?

 

[robster970]

Let it be said FoMo that facts should never get in the way of your opinions.......

Your assessment of the information is what is at fault, not the information itself.

 

[Pat Riley]

But i would chose the random numbers - because if you won say £5 mill on 1 2 3 4 5 6 - then I sure many would say something is wrong - the machine is not working correctly as 6 consecutive numbers coming up out of 49 is like billions to one against what should happen

It's not billions to one. It's the same odds of 1 in 13,983,816 as for any other combination of 6 numbers.

In fact in 19 years of the lottery I do not think there as ever been a 6 consecutive number main win ??[

Of the 1,967 lottery draws to date, there have never been 13,981.849 combinations drawn. SHouldn't we pick any of those either?

IOk - I wait for some one to tell me I am wrong

D'ya want me to hang around?

 

[Forexmospherian]

Let it be said FoMo that facts should never get in the way of your opinions.......

Your assessment of the information is what is at fault, not the information itself.

You may well be correct Robster

I have never done a full analysis on lottery draws and winning numbers

I am aware of a lot of random sequences and also with many combinations coming up more than 3 or 5 times

But you cannot just ignore a better consistency with 6 non consecutive numbers than with - surely ?

 

[darktone]

If I'm trying to flip 10 heads in a row and after 3 hours I get to 9 heads, what's the odds I flip heads the 10th time?

Knowing your luck about 100000 to 1 :cheesy: . And I bet youll be really disapointed if you dont!. F**king coin!

 

[brewski1984]

On another note, I remember arguing with someone years ago about the lottery. He stated that if you did the same 1 line of numbers every week for an infinite amount of time that you would definitely win the lottery at some point. I said no. What does everyone else say?

 

[Forexmospherian]

It's not billions to one. It's the same odds of 1 in 13,983,816 as for any other combination of 6 numbers.

Of the 1,967 lottery draws to date, there have never been 13,981.849 combinations drawn. SHouldn't we pick any of those either?

D'ya want me to hang around?

Drill down into the detail now

I am sure you will find that out of the near 14 million combinations that have never been drawn - a massive number of 6 consecutive numbers

By the way Pat - are you a Maths Professor as well ??? ;-)

 

[trade2windows]

Knowing your luck about 100000 to 1 :cheesy: . And I bet youll be really disapointed if you dont!. F**king coin!

Thats why casino`s love the roulette wheel when there has been many consecutive red numbers ....lots of people assume black must come next