The Difference between Risk & Uncertainty - Poll #1

[robster970]

Now I said not to spoil it didn't I?

Back on the naughty step with you.


That's one hell of a fantasy though. Just tried it on. Works for me.

Fo' sho' - darktone is one hunk of beef....

 

[darktone]

loool Hasnt this already been covered?

 

[Forexmospherian]

The option 2 box of 100 balls will have 30 green balls - 50 blue balls and 20 black balls - but no red balls ;-)

 

[robster970]

If you actually want a sensible answer from me, both (a) and (b) carry the same risk (50%) however (a) has a known distribution for the outcomes and (b) has an unknown distribution for the outcomes. I suspect people select (a) on the whole because they don't like the ambiguity of (b) even though they are risk wise, the same.

I picked (b) because in my head I BELIEVED I had a greater chance of keeping me' nads even though this is mathematically incorrect.

 

[Mr. Charts]

There are two boxes. Box A has 100 balls of which 50 are black and 50 are red. Box B also has 100 balls with unknown numbers of each of red and black.

You can choose either box and you can pick only one ball. If you pick a red ball, you get to keep your reproductive organs and you get $1,000,000.

Which box do you choose to pick a ball from?

I'll leave this poll up for 24 hours.

I wondered how Islamic State spent their evenings.

 

[Mr. Charts]

If it's compulsory, then box A.

Looking at it for the benefit of the box owner, (and testicle accumulator also with $1000000 to spare), he would place 99 black balls in box B......

Not sure why anyone would assume fairness had any part in such a "game"......

 

[Mr. Charts]

Interesting that five people apart from the OP and myself have commented, but only two have voted.

 

[Pat Riley]

I have ta count myself out of the vote for obvious reasons. But the voting is probably less important than the comments being posted rationalising the choices being made.

 

[robster970]

Can anybody demonstrate that options (a) and (b) don't have the same risk?

 

[NVP]

since the box could have zero reds (fat tail?) ........i'll take the 50/50....that's better odds than trading for most people

N

 

[Mr. Charts]

Can anybody demonstrate that options (a) and (b) don't have the same risk?

If you set up the game and liked deep fried testicles in ketchup and wanted to keep $1,000,000, how many red balls would you put in box B ?

 

[Forexmospherian]

The balls in the B box are owned by Goldman Sachs - they are special balls

When the balls were put in the box by the adjudicator and watched by Pat - there was 97 black balls and only 3 red balls

Pat feels safe that most will go with the A option - ie 50/50 - and so his money is safe

However Goldman Sachs get their mate to say here's $50k - can I have first pick - and I will go with option B

Pat feels really great - he gets $50k and is sure this guys is going to have to be really lucky to find one red ball - in amongst 97 black ones

What Pat did not realise that the special balls owned by GS convert from black to red within 1 minute of going into a dark closed box

The Punter wins - Pat's been ripped off - and GS want their balls back

A bit like trading FX really

 

[Triggerfish]

Can anybody demonstrate that options (a) and (b) don't have the same risk?

Can't be answered!.....as Box B is unknown.

Choice is between certainty of risk percentage V unknown risk percentage.

So 50/50.....or.....take a chance!

 

[brewski1984]

It's 50/50 either way isn't it? You either pick a red ball or you don't

 

[robster970]

Can't be answered!.....as Box B is unknown.

Choice is between certainty of risk percentage V unknown risk percentage.

So 50/50.....or.....take a chance!

I don't think that is right. The risk is 50% ((0+100)/2)/100 for (b) which is the same as (a).

It does have an unknown distribution though.

I think it is 50/50 with a known distribution or 50/50 with an unknown distribution.

If that is the case, what is the difference and why the selection bias to (a) ?

 

[Triggerfish]

Box B can't be 50% as it is unknown.....it can be higher/lower chance but this isn't known in advance.

Furthermore, we're comparing a % fact against unknown %, therefore cannot be answered.

Just because the choice is only between red ball v black ball doesn't mean this 50% applies to the both boxes. What is more important is from which box it comes from.....

 

[brewski1984]

Box B can't be 50% as it is unknown.....it can be higher/lower chance but this isn't known in advance.

Furthermore, we're comparing a % fact against unknown %, therefore cannot be answered.

Just because the choice is only between red ball v black ball doesn't mean this 50% applies to the both boxes. What is more important is from which box it comes from.....

If box B is filled with only red and black balls on a completely random selection then in the long term box B will be a 50/50 shot so you have no edge in picking one box over the other

 

[trade2windows]

The two options are equal

Its a study to show how people often prefer to gamble with a known chance of winning as opposed to not knowing what the chance of winning is ..

So whoever votes for Box A is more risk averse preferring the safer option even though the Box B has the same chance

 

[Triggerfish]

If box B is filled with only red and black balls on a completely random selection then in the long term box B will be a 50/50 shot so you have no edge in picking one box over the other

I guess you only have one chance to choose.....right? so "long term" doesn't apply because this will be an average over time for box B.

Also you cannot define a concrete % for box B, therefore you cannot compare between box A and B together.....because they are different.

To say no edge isn't true....to say there is an edge isn't true either as box B is not known.

 

[Pat Riley]

Only 6 hours left for this poll to run. It's close at the moment, close enough ta warrant a recount. Really interestin responses and one or two surprising ones.

I see ISIL's UK frontman Abu ibn Mr. Charts has been in here with his Shar'ia obsession with removing testicles and painting em. I dunno about the rest of yous, but if the allies started doing videos of us removing captured ISIL militia's balls, I think we get a much quicker resolution to the problem.