The Diary Of Not Even Semi-Serious DAX30 DayTader

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Good one to finish. Looks like you'll be having a fun weekend with those statements :)

Probably the wrong time to ask, but do you look at EU when trading DAX/YM?

Na, I just use STOXX futures and the U.S markets.

I really hate FOREX, never succeeded in trading it and find it difficult to accurately analyse.

I lost a fortune when I traded FOREX.
 
Na, I just use STOXX futures and the U.S markets.

I really hate FOREX, never succeeded in trading it and find it difficult to accurately analyse.

I lost a fortune when I traded FOREX.


I failed miserably to trade FX, too, but I find an eye on EU can help with index trading, although it seems to work on a subconscious (or perhaps unconscious, after the beers) level.
 
Posted this on another thread on this forum...


"Have you noticed how some people wait for a car to get closer before crossing the road? Many people trade that way"​

In my opinion this is so true, most traders wait for price to move most of the forecasted movement before taking action, which increases risk, lowers probability,and lessens your chances of sucsess in the long terms.

There is no point waiting for price to move 100pts before deciding to buy on your theory that price is going up for the day, you may as well take your chances and anticipate the move ahead of time, the worst thing than can happen is that you get it wrong, but when you do get it wrong, the loss is much smaller.

That comes from being taught incorrectly, from the start. Text books and experienced posters teach one to enter after the breakout, or other preferred pattern, has occurred and these lessons become the basis of a trader's habits. Are they correct? There is no doubt that shorting when one's price is perched on top iof a series of wicks is a very lonely position to take and, of course, if there is no confirmation of a pattern the question will be "Why did you do it?", if the trade ends in failure.

I, personally, have entered at the "opposite" end of pullbacks many times and have come to a compromise. Wait for a breakout to complete but do it on a smaller timeframe, even 2 minutes, but if one is used to working on 15 minute charts, do not wait for completion on those, come back to it, when the trade has been opened.
 
waiting for a re-trace of the break out bar , using Fibs. then entering when a fib no. is approached, is one approach I see bandied about ?
 
waiting for a re-trace of the break out bar , using Fibs. then entering when a fib no. is approached, is one approach I see bandied about ?

Fibs are something that my mother told me not to tell. As I see it, any other line is just as good and I see no purpose in their use, apart from the fact that so many use them that that, in itself, is a reason, so I have been told.

However, the use of a fib line tells me that that the trader is using it for want of something better--IOW--he does not know!
 
DAX - Next Weeks View

DAX: My Long Term View - 1-3 months

Past week DAX had a minor dip and found support at the 8500 level, this was not a surprise as there was a gap to fill down here around 8510 which has now been closed. I still favor the DAX to reach 9,000 within the next 1-2 months and then onto 9,500 thereafter within 4-6 months, but 8800 will need to be cleared first which should allow a fast push for the 9,000, this should hold as a strong resistance initially when reached.

I'm not the worlds biggest fan of 'fundamentals' and I tend not to use them, but I try to think of what other investors will be doing to help with my analysis, and I believe that the DAX will be one of the favorite markets for investors as its currently being seen as a safe economy. There is a lot of big bucks coming into peripheral Europe and many of those bucks will be invested into the DAX becasue of its blue-chip status.

This also adds weight to my technical theory that we will hit 9,000 in the near future. Germany is a far more stable and reliable economy to that of its surrounding markets and over seas markets.

I can see no sign of major weakness on the DAX and no sustainable reasons why the DAX should sell-off. Therefore I view any retracments or minor sell-offs as buying opportunities for investors.

As an intraday trader myself rather than a long term investor, my best trades will likely come from trading with the trend rather than against it, so I will also be adopting the buy the dip attitude on an intraday basis.

Going forward - Pullbacks that can hold above 8620 as the cut-off point in the near term should be used as buying opportunities.

I will provide my 'daily' support and resistance on Monday.
 

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Read so many posts on this forum tonight on various threads, and I can't help thinking that so many potential good traders and bright people are throwing away a good future and money trying to beat the currency markets long term when their talent, energy, focus and finance would be better placed in other markets that suit them better.

It's a pitty to see such things as I was in that situation, but was lucky to find a way out of it.

Many won't be, because they have been sucked into the vacuum trap of FOREX trading get rich and glamouris pitfalls.
 
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yea i agree with your view... tmr morning market is gonna gap down, cus obama rejected republicans plan? soap opera will continue for the exciting wk ahead!
 
Read so many posts on this forum tonight on various threads, and I can't help thinking that so many potential good traders and bright people are throwing away a good future and money trying to beat the currency markets long term when their talent, energy, focus and finance would be better placed in other markets that suit them better.

It's a pitty to see such things as I was in that situation, but was lucky to find a way out of it.

Many won't be, because they have been sucked into the vacuum trap of FOREX trading get rich and glamouris pitfalls.
Why do you feel forex is so different to any other asset class? Or any asset class different to any other for that matter?

When I pulled up the DAX chart on Friday purely out of interest in this thread having never looked at DAX before, what immediately struck me was that it appeared to be just as tradeable on a purely technical basis and any forex pair. It didn't seem like a foreign land.

S/R levels, momentum, regression, retrace, reversals. I'm told that each instrument has its own character, but at me early stage of trading development, they all look largely the same. Perhaps the root of my problem.
 
Why do you feel forex is so different to any other asset class? Or any asset class different to any other for that matter?

When I pulled up the DAX chart on Friday purely out of interest in this thread having never looked at DAX before, what immediately struck me was that it appeared to be just as tradeable on a purely technical basis and any forex pair. It didn't seem like a foreign land.

S/R levels, momentum, regression, retrace, reversals. I'm told that each instrument has its own character, but at me early stage of trading development, they all look largely the same. Perhaps the root of my problem.

That's what I feel, too. I don't thnk that many. if they could see all my results, would see me as a great trader but I am not a bad one, either, and can say that I take money out of the market. Nevertheless, I am disappointed that I have not done better.

Therefore, when someone like DAX comes along, I latch onto his threads at once. Much better reading than a lot of the other stuff that I read (and write) on other threads. You, too, talk a lot of sense, even if you say that you don't getr it right, yet. I think that you will.

Backslapping over.


why is Forex so different to the indices and why should we not trade them?
 
Why do you feel forex is so different to any other asset class? Or any asset class different to any other for that matter?

When I pulled up the DAX chart on Friday purely out of interest in this thread having never looked at DAX before, what immediately struck me was that it appeared to be just as tradeable on a purely technical basis and any forex pair. It didn't seem like a foreign land.

S/R levels, momentum, regression, retrace, reversals. I'm told that each instrument has its own character, but at me early stage of trading development, they all look largely the same. Perhaps the root of my problem.

In the same way a 1 minute chart looks pretty much like an hourly chart - equally tradeable?

My problem with forex is the pace. On cable, for example, you are trading a 0.0001 tic size, whereas it's 1.0 on DAX. To equate cable to DAX you'd therefore be seeing it as 16,000 compared to DAX 8,000.

Sure, you can compensate for that with position size, but the movement is still exaggerated. Add to that the relative pace they tend to move and it's no contest. You can make money (or lose it) much faster on forex but you need to be much more fast fingered to do it - I'm not and avoid it like the plague.
 
There are so many factors and reasons why DAX differs from FOREX, I will not cover them all as I will be here all day.

First of all, my last post doesn't suggest that everyone ditches the markets they are trading and all jump into DAX. My comment was aimed at multiple markets that are better suited to traders rather than FOREX in general. That could be BUNDS, GILTS, SCHATZ, DAX, COFFEE, SUGAR or whatever, there are plenty of markets to try and test your skills and strategies with. But all the books, websites/blogs are saturated with FOREX, FOREX, FOREX, FOREX to the point that it is glammed up and made out to be the best club in town to make your crust.

Take 500 random retail traders from various brokers and spread betting firms and ask them whats the main market they trade, I would put money on it that at least 85% say FOREX, ask them another question, why do you trade FOREX? Most won't be able to give you a proper answer, becasue most just started trading FOREX becasue everyone else was trading it and talking about it.

Currency trading is one of the most manipulated markets if not the most manipulated market on the planet, here is a recent news item (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-10-11/u-s-said-to-open-criminal-probe-of-fx-market-rigging.html), there are so many facotrs taking place each day within currencies that it would be impossible to keep track of them.

The volatility is a death trap in my opinion, many people will say volatility = money, thats true to a point, but most are on the wrong side of that volatility more often and its not a coincidence either.

Trader A, B, C, D, E, F and G all see trader 1 and 2 posting fancy charts and mentioning how they made this and that on the EUR/USD or GBP/USD when it rallied 100 pips then nose dived 200 pips, that opens up a stampede of hysteria that draws the 'crowed mentality' into that market, so the traders open up their charting, stick a few MA's and indicators on the screen, and then starting telling you how its going to be when they are trading multiple pairs each day.

Hey, I'm a failed FOREX trader, I own up to that, the volatility killed me, the fundamental jiggery pokery everyday killed me, I would look at the EUR/USD at Resistance, see all the technical signals to short that one can imagine, go short, then get stopped out becasue someone from the ECB or FED made some comments, or the FOREX just made one of its random pops higher with not much reasoning why.

Anyway, when I moved away from FOREX and into Indices my trading transformed(with the help of a LIFFE trader), more so with the DAX. The strategies worked better, the volatility was still there, but it was not as 'aggressive' as the FOREX. Also the manipulation was not as rife with the DAX as it is with a lot of other markets, not just FOREX, but also on the DJIA.

I mentioned on another thread that the DAX is not aggressively trading by corporates, hedge funds, pension fund etc as is the case of the DJIA and FTSE. This makes the DAX a more stable market on an intraday basis most of the time, of course it still has its wibble wobbles and no market perfectly trends. But some trading styles and mentality are much better suited to certain markets and more predictable markets.

A lot of people who fail at FOREX are not actually bad traders, its just their mentality and skills are not suited to the high volatility market swings and fundamental drivers within it.

That's why I made the comment about finding your market, finding your niche if you like, a market that actually fits your personality, a market that fits and follows your strategies more times that not. And a market that has enough but not to much volatility that you can handle.

In my opinion you can't fit all markets into one box and say all analysis fits all markets, thats not the case in my opinion. One of my strategies fails miserably on the FTSE and DJIA and FOREX, even tried it on shares, but, it works an absolute treat on the DAX, and I personally make good money from that strategy, but if I went back to applying it on FOREX or the DJIA, I would be out of pocket most weeks.

I don't regard myself as a bad trader, I also don't regard myself as great trader, I do however regard myself as a trader who found his market, a trader who worked his ass off learning his market, and a trader who understands that you don't need to be as jack of all trades and master of none.

Finding your place and your market, and understanding your market is just as important if not the most important aspect of your trading. Who cares about making 100 pips a day, or trying to trade 5 or 8 pairs a day, attempting to draw fancy lines on charts and complex trading strategies won't get you far, in fact, chances are you will just become another statistic smudge on your brokers balance sheet.

DAX provides me with 20-50 points a day most of the time, of course I have my bad days and I have my good days, but becasue I spent the time learning my market and understanding that this market fits my mentality and style, I have been able to make a living from it. If I were still trading FOREX, I would just be another statistic that gets chucked around, 90% fail, 10% win? I would defiantly still be in the 90% of fails.

I'm not claiming to be Mr Know it all, phewww no chance!!! I said this before and will say it again, I'm a one trick pony, I trade the DAX 99.9% of the time and I have failed in every other market I have traded, so I'm certainly not the greatest trader around, nor am I a smart ass. But if I can give one bit of advice, then I would say get out there and check out a range of other markets away from FOREX, you may be surprised at the opportunities it opens up for you, and you never know, you may find that one market that just feels right for you.
 
I should add that if I didn't trade DAX, I would likely trade EUROSTOXX50 as that is another market that fits well with my style and volatility limits. The STOXX in my opinion is a great market which is only beat by the DAX in terms of my preference.
 
There are so many factors and reasons why DAX differs from FOREX, I will not cover them all as I will be here all day.

First of all, my last post doesn't suggest that everyone ditches the markets they are trading and all jump into DAX. My comment was aimed at multiple markets that are better suited to traders rather than FOREX in general. That could be BUNDS, GILTS, SCHATZ, DAX, COFFEE, SUGAR or whatever, there are plenty of markets to try and test your skills and strategies with. But all the books, websites/blogs are saturated with FOREX, FOREX, FOREX, FOREX to the point that it is glammed up and made out to be the best club in town to make your crust.

Take 500 random retail traders from various brokers and spread betting firms and ask them whats the main market they trade, I would put money on it that at least 85% say FOREX, ask them another question, why do you trade FOREX? Most won't be able to give you a proper answer, becasue most just started trading FOREX becasue everyone else was trading it and talking about it.

Currency trading is one of the most manipulated markets if not the most manipulated market on the planet, here is a recent news item (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-10-11/u-s-said-to-open-criminal-probe-of-fx-market-rigging.html), there are so many facotrs taking place each day within currencies that it would be impossible to keep track of them.

The volatility is a death trap in my opinion, many people will say volatility = money, thats true to a point, but most are on the wrong side of that volatility more often and its not a coincidence either.

Trader A, B, C, D, E, F and G all see trader 1 and 2 posting fancy charts and mentioning how they made this and that on the EUR/USD or GBP/USD when it rallied 100 pips then nose dived 200 pips, that opens up a stampede of hysteria that draws the 'crowed mentality' into that market, so the traders open up their charting, stick a few MA's and indicators on the screen, and then starting telling you how its going to be when they are trading multiple pairs each day.

Hey, I'm a failed FOREX trader, I own up to that, the volatility killed me, the fundamental jiggery pokery everyday killed me, I would look at the EUR/USD at Resistance, see all the technical signals to short that one can imagine, go short, then get stopped out becasue someone from the ECB or FED made some comments, or the FOREX just made one of its random pops higher with not much reasoning why.

Anyway, when I moved away from FOREX and into Indices my trading transformed(with the help of a LIFFE trader), more so with the DAX. The strategies worked better, the volatility was still there, but it was not as 'aggressive' as the FOREX. Also the manipulation was not as rife with the DAX as it is with a lot of other markets, not just FOREX, but also on the DJIA.

I mentioned on another thread that the DAX is not aggressively trading by corporates, hedge funds, pension fund etc as is the case of the DJIA and FTSE. This makes the DAX a more stable market on an intraday basis most of the time, of course it still has its wibble wobbles and no market perfectly trends. But some trading styles and mentality are much better suited to certain markets and more predictable markets.

A lot of people who fail at FOREX are not actually bad traders, its just their mentality and skills are not suited to the high volatility market swings and fundamental drivers within it.

That's why I made the comment about finding your market, finding your niche if you like, a market that actually fits your personality, a market that fits and follows your strategies more times that not. And a market that has enough but not to much volatility that you can handle.

In my opinion you can't fit all markets into one box and say all analysis fits all markets, thats not the case in my opinion. One of my strategies fails miserably on the FTSE and DJIA and FOREX, even tried it on shares, but, it works an absolute treat on the DAX, and I personally make good money from that strategy, but if I went back to applying it on FOREX or the DJIA, I would be out of pocket most weeks.

I don't regard myself as a bad trader, I also don't regard myself as great trader, I do however regard myself as a trader who found his market, a trader who worked his ass off learning his market, and a trader who understands that you don't need to be as jack of all trades and master of none.

Finding your place and your market, and understanding your market is just as important if not the most important aspect of your trading. Who cares about making 100 pips a day, or trying to trade 5 or 8 pairs a day, attempting to draw fancy lines on charts and complex trading strategies won't get you far, in fact, chances are you will just become another statistic smudge on your brokers balance sheet.

DAX provides me with 20-50 points a day most of the time, of course I have my bad days and I have my good days, but becasue I spent the time learning my market and understanding that this market fits my mentality and style, I have been able to make a living from it. If I were still trading FOREX, I would just be another statistic that gets chucked around, 90% fail, 10% win? I would defiantly still be in the 90% of fails.

I'm not claiming to be Mr Know it all, phewww no chance!!! I said this before and will say it again, I'm a one trick pony, I trade the DAX 99.9% of the time and I have failed in every other market I have traded, so I'm certainly not the greatest trader around, nor am I a smart ass. But if I can give one bit of advice, then I would say get out there and check out a range of other markets away from FOREX, you may be surprised at the opportunities it opens up for you, and you never know, you may find that one market that just feels right for you.

Talking of stability, I often wonder why more people don't trade the CAC40? Hardly ever jumps around like DAX, YM and FX.
 
.........................That's why I made the comment about finding your market, finding your niche if you like, a market that actually fits your personality, a market that fits and follows your strategies more times that not. And a market that has enough but not to much volatility that you can handle..............

fwiw I think that's probably the absolute best advice for any aspiring trader that you would find anywhere. If there's a Holy Grail to be found, that's it.
 
Here is a video from a TV documentary 'Wall Street Warriors' about a female trader who specilises in and only trades one market...the German Schatz.

Like me, she found her niche, she learn't the market she trades, she still does continue to learn about it.

She's not trying to trade multiple markets, shes not even interested in other markets. She spent her time understanding the workings of the schatz and has now become one of the worlds biggest individual schatz traders in terms of volume.

Find your niche market that fits your personality, style and limitations, study it, learn it, master it, trade it.

She comes into the video at 2 minutes 22 seconds if you want to fast forward it and then again around 10 minutes 45 seconds. Just thought you might be interested in seeing another trader that is successful at only trading one market.

 
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There are so many factors and reasons why DAX differs from FOREX, I will not cover them all as I will be here all day.

No offence intended or implied, but from what you have posted here, I gather you don't like fx because it doesn't respect relatively basic levels of support and resistance as much as Frankfurt-London futures do - by contrast this is the exact reason why some of us prefer fx. There are numerous entities engaged in fx trading who are not necessarily looking to make a direct profit from said trading (much more than physical delivery types in futures) and this can create what might be seen as unusual price action throughout the day - banks aren't just trading this stuff, they are often filling client orders. Plus it's quite possible you could find a market to suit in FX - the USD/CAD barely does anything except during news - a range traders dream if you have an ECN and unlimited patience.

You can't cite a single source in the beginning of an investigation and call it the most manipulated market on earth - this is hmm. It can take only a single individual with a 3 million dollar account to move oil futures all over the place using techniques such as layering and spoofing, such as we saw with Panther - the same thing could theoretically be done in the FDAX, as illegal as it is. Such a thing is not really possible in fx, most market moving events are rolling market orders - not unclipped stops - to spoof the market you'd have to accumulate unholy amounts of exposure, not just with orders. The manipulation you're referring to is traders pooling directional client orders from multiple banks - one of the lesser evils out there as unfair as it is.
 
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the USD/CAD barely does anything except during news - a range traders dream if you have an ETF and unlimited patience.

and here is a range traders nightmare.
 

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