The Coin System

[Victor90]

Hi,
This is something i been wondering for a while about. The market can only go up, down or sideways. So if you go long you will either make money, lose money or the market goes sideways and you dont lose or win. If i would trade only on flipin a coin, one side is going long and the other side is shorting. Then i place a limit order 200 pips away and a stop loss order 100 pips away. Then when i flip the coin it should be 50% chance of profit. And in the long run i should make more money than im losing, right?

Correct me if im wrong

Anyone ever tried this, or backtested it?

 

[0007]

Hi,
This is something i been wondering for a while about. The market can only go up, down or sideways. So if you go long you will either make money, lose money or the market goes sideways and you dont lose or win. If i would trade only on flipin a coin, one side is going long and the other side is shorting. Then i place a limit order 200 pips away and a stop loss order 100 pips away. Then when i flip the coin it should be 50% chance of profit. And in the long run i should make more money than im losing, right?

Correct me if im wrong

Anyone ever tried this, or backtested it?

I suppose it might work if you're trading the "flipping of coins" market ?

 

[Stuart14]

I'd laugh my a**e off if it worked. Can't see it somehow.

 

[rathcoole_exile]

before putting pen to paper and writing your wee message, why not make the effort to read the actual thread about this very topic, something over 100 posts.

Too hard for you in noobieville, still expecting everything to be spoon fed to you ?

 

[Victor90]

before putting pen to paper and writing your wee message, why not make the effort to read the actual thread about this very topic, something over 100 posts.

Too hard for you in noobieville, still expecting everything to be spoon fed to you ?

Okey, sorry!

 

[BerkshireBull]

Hi,
This is something i been wondering for a while about. The market can only go up, down or sideways. So if you go long you will either make money, lose money or the market goes sideways and you dont lose or win. If i would trade only on flipin a coin, one side is going long and the other side is shorting. Then i place a limit order 200 pips away and a stop loss order 100 pips away. Then when i flip the coin it should be 50% chance of profit. And in the long run i should make more money than im losing, right?

Correct me if im wrong

Anyone ever tried this, or backtested it?

I've attached a spreadsheet which I think gives you what you're looking for. I've said that a winning trade nets you 200 points, and a losing trade takes 100 points from your account.

 

[Captain Currency]

.... Then i place a limit order 200 pips away and a stop loss order 100 pips away. Then when i flip the coin it should be 50% chance of profit. And in the long run i should make more money than im losing, right?

Correct me if im wrong

Hello Victor,

If you have a limit order 200 pips away from your entry and a stop loss 100 pips away from your entry, your 100 pip stop loss has a 50% better chance of been hit first.

Keep thinking of ways to beat the market ... :smart:


Kind Regards,

 

[Captain Currency]

I've attached a spreadsheet which I think gives you what you're looking for. I've said that a winning trade nets you 200 points, and a losing trade takes 100 points from your account.

Hello Berkshire,

The odds are not going to be 50/50 if your profit target is 200 pips and your stop-loss is 100 pips.

From your excel results you had 197 trades, 100 where losers and 97 where winners. This is not they way the results would be if you where to try this sysrem for real, as I said earlier a 100 pip stop loss has a much greater chance of been hit than a 200 pip target, it aint 50/50 im afraid

but keep trying ...

Kind Regards,

 

[pseudo straddle]

Quack - Quack - Quack

:clover:

 

[Captain Currency]

.....and for the record you're wrong. You're soooooo wrong

Evil or what..... LOL

 

[Victor90]

Hello Victor,

If you have a limit order 200 pips away from your entry and a stop loss 100 pips away from your entry, your 100 pip stop loss has a 50% better chance of been hit first.

Keep thinking of ways to beat the market ... :smart:


Kind Regards,

Oh! thanks!
your right, i thought it would be kinda strange if it would work since everyone could do it. Hehe

btw, CC Thanks for your 3 ducks trading system, had been using a similar but on other timeframes and other lenght of the sma.

 

[brooks79]

Do you use a penny, nickel, dime, or quarter???? Oh, I will just back test all four!:clap:

Thanks for the system

 

[Victor90]

Do you use a penny, nickel, dime, or quarter???? Oh, I will just back test all four!:clap:

Thanks for the system

haha

 

[BerkshireBull]

Hello Berkshire,

The odds are not going to be 50/50 if your profit target is 200 pips and your stop-loss is 100 pips.

From your excel results you had 197 trades, 100 where losers and 97 where winners. This is not they way the results would be if you where to try this sysrem for real, as I said earlier a 100 pip stop loss has a much greater chance of been hit than a 200 pip target, it aint 50/50 im afraid

but keep trying ...

Kind Regards,

I agree. In real trading, a strategy like this isn't going to 50/50 win/lose. I was just trying to replicate Victor's 'theoretical system'.

I've just knocked up the strategy and backtested it over 4 1/2 years of $GBPUSD on an hourly chart. About 35% of the trades are profitable, and the system does finish the backtest in profit (not including commision or slippage), albeit only just.

 

[puregold24carat]

stumbled onto this...prozac realy kicking in now.....need to lie downnnnn...