Best Thread The Basics of Trading

Charlton said:
Frinos

Prices are actively managed by market makers and influenced by the actions of large institutional investors.

Remember also every purchase of a share is also a sale of a share, so what do you mean by "lots of shares are sold" or "lots of shares are bought" ?

Watch this video on "Misdirection of the futures market"

http://publish.vx.roo.com/thestreet/portal/?channel=Cramer%20On%20Demand&clipid=1373_10329438

Charlton
Hi Charlton,

OK let me clarify a bit... When I say lots of shares are sold, I mean that for example a large institutional investor in a company decides that it wants to reduce it's stock of the shares from 12% to 10%... Once this happens then I have noticed that a lot of smaller investors follow the bandwagon and when looking at for example a trade chart, it seems that everybody is selling up there stock of shares...
So will this these selling actions reduce the share price?
 
frinos said:
Hi Charlton,

OK let me clarify a bit... When I say lots of shares are sold, I mean that for example a large institutional investor in a company decides that it wants to reduce it's stock of the shares from 12% to 10%... Once this happens then I have noticed that a lot of smaller investors follow the bandwagon and when looking at for example a trade chart, it seems that everybody is selling up there stock of shares...
So will this these selling actions reduce the share price?

Generally yes. A large institutional investor is unlikely to sell shares that are expected to perform. A stock will also rise when an institutional investor announces they will increase their holdings in a company. I owned stock in a company in which both these things happened. It dipped around 5% on the 1st announcement then gained around 15% on the next a few months later. It's almost as good as owning shares of a company that becomes a take over target.
 
What's really happening ?

frinos said:
Hi Charlton,

OK let me clarify a bit... When I say lots of shares are sold, I mean that for example a large institutional investor in a company decides that it wants to reduce it's stock of the shares from 12% to 10%... Once this happens then I have noticed that a lot of smaller investors follow the bandwagon and when looking at for example a trade chart, it seems that everybody is selling up there stock of shares...
So will this these selling actions reduce the share price?
New Trader has given you already an answer that I would concur with and I would also suggest that you read his message on another thread about Intent

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/showthread.php?t=24622&page=3

Obviously once the market catches wind of the intent of a large insitutional investor, they will mark the price against that investor if possible. The size of orders can be hidden initially using iceberg orders, but once the facts are known then others will take advantage.

The ideal solution is to accumulate shares when the price is low and to distribute them when it is high. It is important not to have price go against you, so the ideal is slow and gradual, hidden amongst the news and contra the market flow e.g. you accumulate low when news is bad and the market is falling.

Now in the example you quoted above you talked about smaller investors getting on the bandwagon. This may happen because they are so-called weak hands. They see price drop and experience fear, so sell their positions. Perhaps earlier they experienced a fall in price and did not get out on that occasion, but they do not want to suffer again. Perhaps they want to follow bigger players who they consider know more than they do.

Now amongst all this selling and, possible panic, there are players who are now accmulating stock at low prices. Someone has to buy what they are selling and they might be doing so at a bargain.

The secret is trying to determine intent behind these movements and whether you are being placed into the positon of a weak player. Are you being psychologically "forced", "manipulated", subject ot misinformation that places you at a disadvantage, whilst stronger players are busy taking contrarian positions ?

Take a look at Tom Williams book "The undeclared secrets that drive the stock market" as an example of how you might look at price and volume bars to indicate what players are doing.

Note how I have used the term player - think of poker !

Charlton
 
He multipiled his starting capital 10fold in less than a month,
in 1909, he publickly predicted the 1929 great crash,
also made accurate public predictions on a stock which
astonished everyone,

he had developed a formula over 10 years, while working
for a stock broker and watching how the majority of investors traded.

and by the way, he still had losing trades, he had a 92% success rate


is all this coincidence?
I don't think so, Gann, much like George Taylor believed in measuring
everything , interpretting all moves as a function of two variables,
time and price, in fact he was so obsessed that we can say he is
the Newton or Gelileo equivalent of the markets, but here the formulas
had to be kept secret to be of any value

quoted from Trading for a Living by Alexander Elder (page 23):

"'Various opportunists sell "Gann courses" or "Gann software". They claim that Gann was one of the best traders who ever lived, that he left a $50million estate, and so on. I interviewed W.D. Gann's son, an analyst for a Boston bank. He told me that his famous father could not support his family by trading but earned his living by writing and selling instructional courses. When W.D. Gann died in the 1950s, his estate, including his house, was valued at slightly over $500,000. The legend of W.D Gann, the giant of trading, is perpetuated by those who sell courses and other paraphenalia to gullible customers. '"

Whom would you rather believe, the son or a load of snake-oil salesmen with a vested interest in perpetuating a myth ?
 
Personally, I find price action the only saving grace a trader has in this entire cosmos of random ticks and pips. Trading uses "game theory", it's a simple game where we play against apponents, with the only logical way to win being that we find an edge to beat our apponent. When I trade, i trade using an edge, some kind of little signal that i can rely on that is better than chance. Not one trader I have ever met, and I have met many, has ever used indicators or trades very short term intraday time frames to make large rewards from trades.

By applying game theory, we must enter a trade after a signal occurs, place a stop and let the trade run it's course. You risk is "r", your return is a multiple of "r", it may be 3 , 4 or 10 to 1 odds, that depends on how you manage your trade.

I find the minimum trade entry should be taken on hourly charts, trading in a common sense fashion in the direction of the intraday and daily trend. I use inside bars and reversal bars or key reversals on 1 hour and 4 hour charts, and i can get some massive trades going. I urge most new fx traders to learn price action.


GBPUSD_Spot.png
 
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In business if you think big you will make it big.

Hi peeps I am all new to this but one of my biggest tips I think myself and can give is in business "If you think big then you will make it big. Basically what I mean by that is If you have a big idea about haveing your own business etc. Then you can and will you need to plan it out slowly ,know how you will do it, how much you will spend on it in order to make it happen etc. Now we have all heard the saying that rome was not build in one day. No it wasn't because its true as football stadiums wasn't build in one day etc so what I mean is you want to make a business of you own thats cool go for it hope you all the success in the world for it. But you will not have it straight away nothing comes straight away you have to work towards it in order to get it like any businessman/woman would tell you. Now the thing is what I like about business is that its calm,cool and collective that one day you could invest some of you own money into the stock market say a few thousand pounds etc and only to get 3 times that amount back. Which is brilliant to some as others like to be greedy and expect to get maybe 10 times the amount of money that they put in to the stock market in the beginging. Now to some it might be common sense to expect to get much more money back than you put in yourself in the beginging but really its not because you could be expecting to get it but could really not get it or lose more money than you invested yourself never expect anything just wait and see what you get back. The point I am trying to say is "To have a good business you have to produce good business like to make money you have to invest money in order to get your money back and more etc. So hope that helped and see you all soon and hope you all reponse back to that thanks.
 
Mp -- Ah, The Old "theres Only One Way To Do It" Routine !

Personally, I find price action the only saving grace a trader has in this entire cosmos of random ticks and pips. Trading uses "game theory", it's a simple game where we play against apponents, with the only logical way to win being that we find an edge to beat our apponent. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . I find the minimum trade entry should be taken on hourly charts, trading in a common sense fashion in the direction of the intraday and daily trend. I use inside bars and reversal bars or key reversals on 1 hour and 4 hour charts, and i can get some massive trades going. I urge most new fx traders to learn price action.QUOTE]
=====================================================================

price action is indeed a very good method of trading, and the method on this site taught by trader_dante, using "long legged hammers" (called pin bars in his teachings) is a nicely solid method of trading that appears to be similar to, but offers much earlier entries than your system.

but the two things i shall pop in here is first, "theres more than one way to skin a cat" and while you may be sitting there, in front of your computer with the latest graphics cards, multicore brains and the fastest ram in the world, it is NOT a game and in reality, you are really NOT trading against anyone else --- its NOT warfare or gamesmanship, but rather a simple method of moving from one place to another, and finding profit at your new home !

if you had been using support and resistance and associated channels, you could have entered your short WAY before you got confirmation from the price action of those candles, as each candle (on a one hour chart) takes (duhhhhhh) one hour to complete, and from what i see, youve taken at least two hours waiting to make the decision, while others using s+r would have already been in the trade, making money, hours before you !

as far as "winning against opponents by finding an edge", the edge you seek is simple experience and knowledge of HOW to trade, not a pearl handled revolver, more ammunition or a suitcase nuke and as far as opponents, WHO the heck are they ? if trading against a broker, youre simply trading your price against his/her pool of stock, options or forex lots, and there is only one way to ACTUALLY win against them --- be in every single trade thats made for 24 hours each day, be it long or short and especially on the one and 5 minute charts, where they are moving up and down --- its a lot of work, and you should hire a few assistants to handle the shifts, but then you have the satisfaction of knowing you matched em, step by step. Of course, the best you can hope for in that case is a draw, as he/she can always come up with one more pip than you thought, and therefore "WIN !"

If youre playing the one hour chart, the firm is playing that, plus EVERY other timeframe, so when they retrace a move on the 15 min, it just looks like a bit of a drawdown to you, and the trend continues over the course of the day, but during that same course, they have gone long and short 100's of times, buying and selling and making profit, while your train just chugs slowly forward, ignoring the moves around you ----- they win, thru sheer dint of volume of trades, and they dont play against you --- they trade against everything !

Its NOT a game or a contest --- its simply educated and experienced abilities faced with how to get from point A (entry) to point B (exit) and is no harder or more competitive than walking across the street !

your method is sound, but forget about jousting with the broker --- its silly, stupid and pointless because its of no value --- just concentrate on walking across the street !

enjoy and trade well

mp
 
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Price Action is King. You only need a daily chart to make a living, with a horizontal line. Actually, you just need to find a few setups, and then learn to read markets. It so simple when you learn how.

It really is a case of "if it looks hard, its usually simple" kind of logic.

Why do people fail? It's quite simple... they just don't have a plan of attack, and they chop and change, they are gamblers and bored lazy idiots who use the markets to fill a void in their life. THis is money, real money , treat it seriously and remove all emotion. THis is not entertainment.

I use basic price action signals, as well as support resistance. When a market experiences a sudden shift in momentum, I use the 8 day average expoential to sell strength or buy weakness depending on the direction.

Plan 1 - Find a short term bias, or trend, if there is no trend, stay away. Use horizontal lines on your chart . Old support becomes new resistance and visa versa. Sell rallies, in falling markets, buy dips in rising markets. Go with breaks from consolidations in obvious trends.

Plan 2 - Wait for a market to contract in tight range, and go with the move of the break. If the break fails, stop and reverse.

Plan 3 - Learn core price patterns and trade from them . EG Pin bar, inside bars, fals inside day breaks, et etc.

The best free website to learn is Forex Trading System - Learn How to trade , CFDs, Forex, Shares - Home
 
I beg to differ!

It is not easy, even if all rules are down pat. Things like bad broker companies. Systems changing over night. It all depends on where you get in. All systems will fail sooner or later. O and the forex is one of the worst.
Dont trade, futures, CFDs or forex - long term flat or non trending markets, in other words dont trade now.
 
It is not easy, even if all rules are down pat. Things like bad broker companies. Systems changing over night. It all depends on where you get in. All systems will fail sooner or later. O and the forex is one of the worst.
Dont trade, futures, CFDs or forex - long term flat or non trending markets, in other words dont trade now.

I'm newbie, Why? :eek:
 
Because you will loose money and lots of it. there is so much written stuff out there telling you that you are doing something wrong - crap! Do all the rules and you will still loose money, because systems will fail you after time. So there is your answer why 95% of traders loose money including professional traders.
The banks make money out of you, that is what it is all about.
Stocks with high volume in trending markets can make you money. At this moment the stock markets arent trending they are moving sideways - its very hard to make money with that. It may take a couple of years before its safe to trade stocks again.

Try and see. Open a free demo account with forex or CFDs, I will bet you will loose within 6 months of trading your system, if you dont have a system then you will loose straight away. For free CFDs account go to ABN Amro marketindex. Just watch the how the brokers take your money.
 
I see, so does it mean 'not to trade at all'?
I got Forex Tester simulator.. quite well program by the way. So what happen if I will improve my strategy all the time according to the market?
 
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Hi all,

I am fairly new to trading and have got a couple of basic questions which I hope you can help me on. Firstly about support, resistance and trendlines. When drawing lines on a chart, would you normally draw the trendlines first, then draw the support/ resistance line. Would the trendline normally be the support/resistance line? What is the best way to draw an accurate support/resistance line?

I know these questions are very basic but really hope that someone could help me out with this.

Cheers!!
 
Hi all,

I am fairly new to trading and have got a couple of basic questions which I hope you can help me on. Firstly about support, resistance and trendlines. When drawing lines on a chart, would you normally draw the trendlines first, then draw the support/ resistance line. Would the trendline normally be the support/resistance line? What is the best way to draw an accurate support/resistance line?

I know these questions are very basic but really hope that someone could help me out with this.

Cheers!!

If you go into the First Steps section and find a thread called Making Money Trading you will find MY answers to all your questions.

Take note though that there are, like many elements in trading, countless different answers to how to draw TLs and S/R levels. My way is not THE RIGHT WAY its just my way of using them.
 
TOO many trade

s/r....fair............news...not relevant for me except fomc..chart tells me what to do and the normal news leaks early too often...........times----market open and fomc for real caution...read the chart .......JMHO...if the train is running south and you are running north do u wish to hop at it for a ride?= SPLAT...emini intraday trading? market can only trend up trend down trend sideways....countertrending is bad...will put you out of business..........what appears to be big countertrend might be zero starting point of new run/channel....but still be in old channel...called apex...zero starting point....now, when you see that at s/r point you have something to write home about...
 
learn to read candlesticks....there is nothing new to be found there after 300 years or more of their usage ..........If candles were not consistent the 1/2 dozen gold producing candlestick patterns would not be consistent for 300 years and still producing everyday emini intraday trading speaking....by the way, using daily single bar with intraday emini trading is waste of time...use one time frame one chart and trade.....surprising how concentrating all your assets and efforts on one market and one time frame can enhance all you do in this business especially making money.......IMHO
 
hello everyone,
here goes my first post;

how come when I click on the ADVFN links that FTSE Beater posts I always get a totally different graph than the one he ends up analysing? has anyone found this as well? what can I do about it?

thank you,
Ez
 
hmm..fair enough but the tool below the chart allows you to set a date..which does not seem to change anything..anywhere else where i could be learning this..another forum maybe?

thank you
 
It would be nice to have been here when those charts were fresh in order to see how your picks look to the seasoned people here, but the thread is still very good education IMHO. I am sure if you look there are other threads on the site where they are posting fresh charts to have a go at.
 
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