The Alba System Journal- EUR/USD intraday system

[ChowClown]

Days like today make losing hurt the most. Usually I can accept a loss with no problem because it's just a normal part of being a trader. However, today was one of those days where you know you were right in your trade, but the market moved just enough against you to briefly stop you out and then decided to go in the original direction you had hoped it would go in the first place. Today there was an Alba signal at 10:20 am EST and I entered 3 lots long. The presumption here was that the price had bounced off the EU low and would proceed to reach at least the EU high. I entered 3 lots at 2576 with a stop at 2558 and a target at 2587. At 11:40 am EST I was stopped out of my trade by 3 pips. And wouldn't you figure, right after I was stopped out, the market continued it's move toward the EU high and not only did it reach it, it ended up breaking out of the EU range late in the day. Sheesh! Everything looked good when I entered the trade, but sometimes things like this just happen. It would've been a nice win today but unfortunately now this loss has put us back to breakeven for the month. The Alba system has not had a negative month since its inception so these last 2 weeks will be interesting to watch. I will follow the system rules to a tee and hopefully the system will bring me back to positive pips for the month. Hope you all did ok today. For those of you who just trade the Alba breakouts, you lucked out of this one I wish I was you today. Cheers! ~Big Pippin

Result: -54 -9(spread)= -63 pips

Hi BP, great thread, a good lesson in trading plan discipline.

I think breakout FX methods in general this month are feeling the pinch and I would be interested in hearing your thoughts on filters. As most BO strats attempt to exploit trending instruments, it seems reasonable to use a trend filter such that entries are only taken when the instrument is trending (rather than ranging) and if trending, only entering in the direction of the trend.

It seems a simple idea to implement but looking into this further I can see why most intraday BO methods i've looked at don't use them. There doesn't appear to be a trend filter solution to nail it....or is there?

 

[Big Pippin]

Hi BP, great thread, a good lesson in trading plan discipline.

I think breakout FX methods in general this month are feeling the pinch and I would be interested in hearing your thoughts on filters. As most BO strats attempt to exploit trending instruments, it seems reasonable to use a trend filter such that entries are only taken when the instrument is trending (rather than ranging) and if trending, only entering in the direction of the trend.

It seems a simple idea to implement but looking into this further I can see why most intraday BO methods i've looked at don't use them. There doesn't appear to be a trend filter solution to nail it....or is there?

Hi Chow,

I actually see BO methods as trend filtering systems. At least in my case, I find that the EU session provides a good area of consolidation and a breakout of this range during the US session would signify the start of a short term trend. This is the very reason why I prefer using breakouts over indicators. Indicator systems lag which is why they often times need several filters for weeding out the fake trends. With breakouts, you are relying mainly on price action which is the ultimate indicator of market direction. My system has both a breakout and indicator entry method. The trade you replied to was the indicator entry method and was still within the EU range which meant that it wasn't really a clear trend yet. However, the idea was that the price was at least going to hit that EU high which it eventually did. The only problem was that it spiked me out before getting there .

I appreciate your comments. Good luck with your trading!

Cheers,

-BP

 

[ChowClown]

Thanks BP, that's helped steer my thinking on a forward test using a 5am-8amGMT BO, which attempts to enter in the main direction for the day, after the Frankfurt & London open shakeouts. Great when trending (like today - cable up +110 so far), but hairy drawdowns on weaker trend/ranging days.

Thanks again and good luck with Alba today.

 

[Big Pippin]

Thanks BP, that's helped steer my thinking on a forward test using a 5am-8amGMT BO, which attempts to enter in the main direction for the day, after the Frankfurt & London open shakeouts. Great when trending (like today - cable up +110 so far), but hairy drawdowns on weaker trend/ranging days.

Thanks again and good luck with Alba today.

Good luck with your system. I hope it works out for you.

Happy trading!

-BP

 

[Big Pippin]

Forex Trade- 6.22.06- 1 Small Trade Won

Today was one of those days where I wish I was trading during the EU session. What a nice move the Euro made during its session. Unfortunately the move was pretty much exhausted during the US session but we did still manage to get a small trade out of it. At 9:20 am EST there was an Alba signal/breakout and I entered 3 lots short at 2565 with a stop at 2582 and a target at 2556. My target was hit at 10:10 am EST and I closed 2 lots and moved my last lot's stop to breakeven. I was stopped out on my last lot on the very next candle. So overall it wasn't a big win and of course I would've liked to have grabbed more pips from the EU session but you can't get them all For all you EU session traders, I hope you were able to grab some pips from that nice move. Cheers! ~Big Pippin

Result: +18 +3 -9(spread)= +12 pips

 

[Big Pippin]

Forex Trade- 6.23.06- 1 Trade Lost

Well unfortunately this week ended on a bad note. After the Durable Goods report, there was an Alba breakout and I entered 3 lots short at 2478 with a stop at 2500 and a target at 2466. I was stopped out on all 3 lots at 9:00 am EST. It hasn't been a good 2 weeks for Alba and I'm hoping I can make up some ground next week. I'm kind of anxious because I haven't had a negative month yet with this system so this could be a first. I will stick to the rules and not force any trades next week. Hopefully everything will work out Have a great weekend everyone. Cheers! ~Big Pippin

Result: -66 -9(spread)= -75 pips

 

[Big Pippin]

Alba Results for 6.19.06 - 6.23.06

Well this was a really tough week as I suffered 2 major losses. I'm hoping we'll see some big moves next week so I can make up some ground and try to end the month positive.

Monday: +12
Tuesday: -63
Wednesday: No Trade
Thursday: +12
Friday: -75

Total: -114 pips

Total for June: -74 pips

 

[Big Pippin]

Forex Trade- 6.26.06- No Trade

Well, as expected, nothing much happened today with the EUR/USD. You can see from the chart that there was very little movement except when the New Home Sales report came out. It still wasn't enough movement for us to get a trade. Hopefully the rest of the week will be better. Cheers! ~Big Pippin

Result: +0 pips

 

[Big Pippin]

Forex Trade- 6.27.06- 1 Trade Lost

Well it was another tough day for the Alba system. There was a good Alba signal at 8:40 am EST and I entered 3 lots long at 2592 with a stop at 2569 and a target at 2604. Unfortunately my target was not hit by the time the Existing Home Sales and Consumer Confidence report came out and seeing that I don't like being in trades during news reports I closed all 3 lots at 10:00 am EST at 2587. In hindsight, had I stayed in the trade, my target would've been hit. Don't you hate that? Even though I lost and even though I see that my trade would've won had I stayed in, I am happy that I was able to stick to my rules even though it cost me some pips today. It's especially tough to follow your trading rules especially when you've been having an aberrant run. We are still negative for the month with only 3 days left. It doesn't look like I'll be able to pull up positive pips for this month but you never know. We'll have to wait and see what happens. Cheers! ~Big Pippin

Results: -15 -9(spread)= -24 pips

 

[Big Pippin]

Forex Trade- 6.28.06- 1 Trade Won

Well finally Alba was able to pull a win today. It wasn't a big one but it sure does feel better to finally win after a string of losses! I knew that Crude inventories were coming out at 10:30 am EST but I viewed as a minor news event so I was planning to still trade. However, if I didn't have a trade and Crude inventories came out with a surprise and caused a volatile candle (30 or pips range) then I would've waited at least 20 minutes after before entering a trade. Today the trade came right before the report and I still entered. Luckily it worked out in my favor today. At 10:20 am EST there was an Alba breakout and I entered 3 lots short at 2534 with a stop at 2555 and a target at 2520. My target was hit on the 10:30 candle and I closed 2 lots and moved my last lot's stop to breakeven. I didn't see a good time to trail my stop so I left it at breakeven and unfortunately that's where I was stopped out on my last lot. We're still negative for the month, but at least we're gaining back some of our losses. Hope you all did well today. Cheers! ~Big Pippin

Results: +28 +3 -9(spread)= +22 pips

 

[Big Pippin]

Forex Trade- 6.29.06- No Trades

Today was a pretty quiet day as the Euro stayed within the EU range during our trading hours. We did almost have an Alba signal but it was too close to the EU high for us to take. I'm guessing that the lack of movement was due to traders anticipating the interest rate decision by the FOMC later in the day. After the interest rate decision was announced there was a nice move in the EUR/USD. Unfortunately our trading day was already finished. Hopefully we can get one more win tomorrow and close the month out on a good not. Cheers! ~Big Pippin

Results: +0 pips

 

[Big Pippin]

Forex Trade- 6.30.06- 1 Trade Won

Well today we were able to manage another small win. However, I looked back and realized that I messed up on my trade. I entered at the right spot but my target and stop were wrong. Either way I would've won but I still want to note that I made a mistake in today's trade so hopefully I don't do it again The news releases at 8:30 am EST caused a breakout but because it was a news candle I did not enter. At 9:10 am EST I saw an Alba signal/breakout and I entered 3 lots long at 2757 with a stop at 2741 and a target at 2768. I knew that the PMI report was coming out at 10:00 am EST so I made a decision that if I was in the money by the time of the news release I would exit my trade but if I was negative I would just hold it and hope for the best. At 9:40 am EST my target was hit and I closed 2 lots and moved my last lot's stop to breakeven where I was stopped out on the very next candle. So it was a small win and certainly not enough to bring me back to positive for the month but at least we ended the month on a good note. Here's to better month...Cheers! ~Big Pippin

Result: +22 +3 -9(spread)= +16 pips

 

[Big Pippin]

Alba results for 6.26.06 - 6.30.06

Well we finished the week slightly positive but it wasn't enough to bring us back to positive pips for the month. This is the first negative month that Alba has had since inception so I'm not too worried. I knew had to happen sometime but it still stinks to lose Hope you all did better than me!

Monday: No trade
Tuesday: -24
Wednesday: +22
Thursday: No trade
Friday: +16

Total: +14 pips

Total for June: -60 pips

 

[Big Pippin]

Forex Trade- 7.5.06 - 1 Trade Won

Well after the first day back, we were able to grab some pips and start the month off on a good note. Since the Factory Orders report was only a yellow event on Forex Factory, I knew that I would still take a trade if I saw one before the report. If there was no trade before the report and the actual news candle was volatile (30+ pips in range) I would've then treated it as a news candle and waited at least 20 minutes before trading. In today's case I saw an Alba breakout at 9:40 am EST and I entered 3 lots short at 2722 with a stop at 2737 and a target at 2714. My target was hit at 10:10 am EST and I closed 2 lots and moved my last lot's stop to breakeven. I trailed my last lot's stop to the high of the candle shown on the chart where I was eventually stopped out at 10:50 am EST at 2715. Even though it was only a small win, it was a nice way to come back into the market, especially after last month's disappointing results. Hope you all did well today. Cheers! ~Big Pippin

Results: +16 +7 -9(spread)= +14 pips

 

[Big Pippin]

Forex Trade- 7.06.06- No Trade

Well we some brief movement after Trichet's comments at 8:30 am EST but after that the price completely stalled. There were no good breakouts or signals in either direction and causing us to stay out of the market today. Hopefully tomorrow will be better. Cheers! ~Big Pippin

Results: +0 pips

 

[Big Pippin]

Forex Trade- 7.07.06 - No Trade

Seeing how there was a tight range during the EU session, I definitely expected a breakout. The breakout occured as a result of the Non Farm Payroll but because it was a news candle I did not trade it. After that, the price pretty much just stayed put and I didn't see any good breakout or signals so I just stayed out of the market. No trade is better than a losing trade so I'm ok with missing out on the move Cheers! ~Big Pippin

Result: +0 pips

 

[Big Pippin]

Alba results for 7.03.06 - 7.07.06

This was a short trading week with the holiday so not much happened. Hopefully we can gain some momentum and have a nice month to compensate for last month's disappointing loss.

Monday: Holiday- No trade
Tuesday: Holiday - No trade
Wednesday: +14
Thursday: No trade
Friday: No trade

Total: +14 pips

Total for July: +14 pips

 

[Big Pippin]

Forex Trade- 7.10.06 - 1 Trade Lost

Well unfortunately today was not a good start to the week. Early on the market teased us of a short trade as the Euro hovered around the EU session low. It wasn't until 9:30 am EST that I saw a good Alba breakout. I entered 3 lots short at 2723 with a stop at 2738 and a target at 2715. Unfortunately the Euro did not continue to head down and retraced just enough to stop us out. It wasn't a huge loss but I would've much rather had a win today. It's still early in the week so I'm hoping we can make up some ground in the next few days. Cheers! ~Big Pippin

Results: -45 -9(spread)= -54 pips

 

[Big Pippin]

Forex Trade- 7.11.06- 1 Trade Won

Today we had a small win with an Alba signal. At 9:00 am EST, there was a good Alba signal and I entered 3 lots short at 2726 with a stop at 2740 and a target at 2717. My target was hit on the next candle and I closed 2 lots and moved my last lot's stop to breakeven. Unfortunately, the price reversed and stopped me out at breakeven on the very next candle. So it was another small win, but at least it we were positive for the day. Cheers! ~Big Pippin

Results: +18 +3 -9(spread)= +12 pips

 

[Big Pippin]

Forex Trade- 7.12.06 - No Trade

Even with the Trade Balance report we still did not have a good Alba breakout or signal. The actual news candle at 8:30 caused an Alba breakout but because I don't trade news candles, I stayed out. After the news, the price hovered around the EU low and never gave me a good entry for another breakout or signal. We'll just have to wait another day. Must.....have.....patience....! Cheers! ~Big Pippin

Results: +0 pips