Best Thread The 3 Duck's Trading System

[Nigel-P]

How is everyone getting on? Not a whole lot going on with the 4 hour trends this week, I'm not seeing much jump out at me. If I see any potentials lining up nicely I'll try to post otherwise I think it could be January before I get fully back in the saddle. December can be tricky sometimes. No position is still a position!

Good trading

 

[Captain Currency]

Captain Currency says

Hello Duck Hunters,

I hope this helps you.

Eur.Gbp gave us a nice "set and forget" 20 pip stop-loss, 40 pip reward trade set-up yesterday (chart attached)

Here Is An Idea Of My Current View On Some Currency Pairs Using The 3 Ducks Trading System.

December 14th 2011 at approx 11am Dublin Time;

Eur.Usd – current spot price is 1.3035, I would be looking for selling opportunities when my 3 ducks line up

Gbp.Usd – current spot price is 1.5502, I would be looking for selling opportunities when my 3 ducks line up

Eur.Gbp – current spot price is 0.8407, the GBP is stronger than the Euro at the moment and I would be looking for selling opportunities when my 3 ducks line up

Usd.Chf – current spot price is 0.9461, I would be looking for buying opportunities when my 3 ducks line up

Aud.Usd – current spot price is 1.0011, neutral on this pair at the moment. A break and hold below the 0.9980 level would help get me bearish on this pair

Usd.Cad – current spot price is 1.0341, neutral on this pair at the moment. A break and hold above the 1.0400 level would help get me bullish on this pair :whistling

Usd.Jpy – current spot price is 78.00, neutral on this pair at the moment

Eur.Jpy – current spot price is 101.57, I would be looking for selling opportunities when my 3 ducks line up ​

Hope that helps you.

Keep it Simple,
Andy





These are not trade recommendations. The 3 Duck’s Trading System is best used as a set of guidelines with discretion in addition with your own market analysis and trading ideas.

 

[robwin]

Hi Nigel

Do you spread bet, if not who do you use, a broker?

If you spread bet do you place a daily rolling bet with rollover charges or go for a future month with a wider spread?

Thanks

 

[Nigel-P]

Hi Nigel

Do you spread bet, if not who do you use, a broker?

If you spread bet do you place a daily rolling bet with rollover charges or go for a future month with a wider spread?

Thanks

Hi robwin

No, I don't spreadbet. I have my capital spread over a few broker accounts, FXCM, GFT, Oanda. I don't have any aversion to spread betting, I think the point is just to make sure you are leveraged appropriately.

I started out with Oanda because of their no minimum trade policy. It allows you to trade like a pro with a small account. Traders who are starting out trading with excessively high leverage are really not giving themselves a chance.

Long Term Capital Management got into trouble with billions under management at 25:1 and before it blew up was levered 250:1. It had finance professionals and Nobel prize winners coming out of its ears (by contrast we have our puny accounts, some websites and 3 Ducks). The story demonstrates very well the psychological impact of chasing bigger returns with higher leverage has on even the brightest minds.

Consequently, if a trader opens a spread bet account, or a highly leveraged broker account with say, €200 and is trading at €1 a point, he basically has less than 200 pips to lose (margin call will come before €0). The market can fart 50 pips before it wakes up and suddenly Johnny New. B. Trader is down 25%! And panicking.

So I suppose I would say that when you open an account make sure it allows you to risk an amount on a trade that is low enough so that if the trade is a loser it does not affect you emotionally and does not prompt an angry response.

If you close a trade at a loss and start blaming the market or the broker or feel yourself inclined to double up on the next trade to win back your losses, I would hazard a guess that you are probably levered too high. If you close at a loss and are able to accept the trade for what it is, even it is number 4 or 5 in a losing streak (which inevitably comes) then you are probably levered ok. Water off a duck's back, to keep in line with the thread. Everyone's threshold is different.

On a side note, does anyone have any good trading book recommendations for over the Christmas holidays? As I say in my profile, I think any of the Market Wizards books by Jack D. Schwager are great reads, and Jessie Livermore's stuff is classic. If you haven't read these books and want to trade seriously I would wholeheartedly recommend them. I'll probably be reading them again myself. It can be hard to find on the internet but the film by Paul Tudor Jones, "Trader: The Documentary" is a great watch. I think he tried to get it erased off the internet but it turned up on some Chinese website.

Good trading

Nigel

 

[dazzer_fx]

Hi robwin

No, I don't spreadbet. I have my capital spread over a few broker accounts, FXCM, GFT, Oanda. I don't have any aversion to spread betting, I think the point is just to make sure you are leveraged appropriately.

I started out with Oanda because of their no minimum trade policy. It allows you to trade like a pro with a small account. Traders who are starting out trading with excessively high leverage are really not giving themselves a chance.

Long Term Capital Management got into trouble with billions under management at 25:1 and before it blew up was levered 250:1. It had finance professionals and Nobel prize winners coming out of its ears (by contrast we have our puny accounts, some websites and 3 Ducks). The story demonstrates very well the psychological impact of chasing bigger returns with higher leverage has on even the brightest minds.

Consequently, if a trader opens a spread bet account, or a highly leveraged broker account with say, €200 and is trading at €1 a point, he basically has less than 200 pips to lose (margin call will come before €0). The market can fart 50 pips before it wakes up and suddenly Johnny New. B. Trader is down 25%! And panicking.

So I suppose I would say that when you open an account make sure it allows you to risk an amount on a trade that is low enough so that if the trade is a loser it does not affect you emotionally and does not prompt an angry response.

If you close a trade at a loss and start blaming the market or the broker or feel yourself inclined to double up on the next trade to win back your losses, I would hazard a guess that you are probably levered too high. If you close at a loss and are able to accept the trade for what it is, even it is number 4 or 5 in a losing streak (which inevitably comes) then you are probably levered ok. Water off a duck's back, to keep in line with the thread. Everyone's threshold is different.

On a side note, does anyone have any good trading book recommendations for over the Christmas holidays? As I say in my profile, I think any of the Market Wizards books by Jack D. Schwager are great reads, and Jessie Livermore's stuff is classic. If you haven't read these books and want to trade seriously I would wholeheartedly recommend them. I'll probably be reading them again myself. It can be hard to find on the internet but the film by Paul Tudor Jones, "Trader: The Documentary" is a great watch. I think he tried to get it erased off the internet but it turned up on some Chinese website.

Good trading

Nigel

The PTJ's video is here, old but brilliant!

http://www.tudou.com/programs/view/XH5W4vffBbY/

 

[Nigel-P]

Cheers dazzer_fx, I keep forgetting how awesome those 80's glasses were!

 

[dazzer_fx]

Cheers dazzer_fx, I keep forgetting how awesome those 80's glasses were!

I also like the bit where he takes a big trade then takes a big gulp of his Budweiser.

 

[forexkunta]

Hi robwin

No, I don't spreadbet. I have my capital spread over a few broker accounts, FXCM, GFT, Oanda. I don't have any aversion to spread betting, I think the point is just to make sure you are leveraged appropriately.

I started out with Oanda because of their no minimum trade policy. It allows you to trade like a pro with a small account. Traders who are starting out trading with excessively high leverage are really not giving themselves a chance.

Long Term Capital Management got into trouble with billions under management at 25:1 and before it blew up was levered 250:1. It had finance professionals and Nobel prize winners coming out of its ears (by contrast we have our puny accounts, some websites and 3 Ducks). The story demonstrates very well the psychological impact of chasing bigger returns with higher leverage has on even the brightest minds.

Consequently, if a trader opens a spread bet account, or a highly leveraged broker account with say, €200 and is trading at €1 a point, he basically has less than 200 pips to lose (margin call will come before €0). The market can fart 50 pips before it wakes up and suddenly Johnny New. B. Trader is down 25%! And panicking.

So I suppose I would say that when you open an account make sure it allows you to risk an amount on a trade that is low enough so that if the trade is a loser it does not affect you emotionally and does not prompt an angry response.

If you close a trade at a loss and start blaming the market or the broker or feel yourself inclined to double up on the next trade to win back your losses, I would hazard a guess that you are probably levered too high. If you close at a loss and are able to accept the trade for what it is, even it is number 4 or 5 in a losing streak (which inevitably comes) then you are probably levered ok. Water off a duck's back, to keep in line with the thread. Everyone's threshold is different.

On a side note, does anyone have any good trading book recommendations for over the Christmas holidays? As I say in my profile, I think any of the Market Wizards books by Jack D. Schwager are great reads, and Jessie Livermore's stuff is classic. If you haven't read these books and want to trade seriously I would wholeheartedly recommend them. I'll probably be reading them again myself. It can be hard to find on the internet but the film by Paul Tudor Jones, "Trader: The Documentary" is a great watch. I think he tried to get it erased off the internet but it turned up on some Chinese website.

Good trading

Nigel

The Elliott Wave Principle by Robert Prechter
Elliott Wave International: Expert Market Forecasting using the Elliott Wave Principle

 

[Captain Currency]

Captain Currency's view of market for December 21th 2011 at approx 11am Dublin Time

"It's beginning to look a lot like, Chri…..

When I was growing up, they called it Christmas. Now, in order to offend no one, they call it nothing.

Happy Holidays Duck Hunters and I hope 2012 brings you plenty of pips.


Wise Men, Wise Words “Your Patience’s With The Market”
The Fx market may be quiet during holiday times so your patience’s with the market could be required.

“Wisdom”
Your Ducks may line up this week but a better trader will know that their Ducks will work best when there is good liquidity out there in the market.


Below Is An Idea of My Current View on Some Currency Pairs Using The 3 Ducks Trading System.

December 21th 2011 at approx 8am Dublin Time:

Eur.Usd – current spot price is 1.3120, I would be looking for selling opportunities when my 3 ducks line up. Price needs to get back below the 1.3000 area first

Gbp.Usd – current spot price is 1.5713, neutral on this pair at the moment

Eur.Gbp – current spot price is 0.8352, same as last week, the GBP is stronger than the Euro at the moment and I would be looking for selling opportunities when my 3 ducks line up

Usd.Chf – current spot price is 0.9278, neutral on this pair at the moment :whistling

Aud.Usd – current spot price is 1.0194, the bullish movement in the last 2 days has bucked the recent down swing so I’m neutral on this pair at the moment

Usd.Cad – current spot price is 1.0239, the bearish movement in the last 2 days has bucked the recent up swing so I’m neutral on this pair at the moment

Usd.Jpy – current spot price is 77.73, neutral on this pair at the moment. This pair has been going sideways for the last 4 weeks so boring for a trend trader! :whistling

Eur.Jpy – current spot price is 101.98, I would be looking for selling opportunities when my 3 ducks line up. A break below the 101.60 area is needed first


Hope that helps you.

Until next time Buddy, Keep it Simple


Andy


These are not trade recommendations. The 3 Ducks Trading System is best used as a set of guidelines with discretion in addition with your own market analysis and trading ideas. I do not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.

 

[Captain Currency]

Hello Duck Hunters,

Last 3 Ducks trade for 2011.

Selling Eur.Gbp with a 20 pip stop-loss and a 40 pip take profit (hit).

See you all in 2012.

3 Ducks ebook;
If anybody is interested in doing a small bit of reading over the holidays you can pick up a free copy of The 3 Duck's Trading System ebook on The Captain Currency blog.

Andy

 

[Captain Currency]

A quick question before we start trading in 2012...

Question
Might you be a bit of a “Dabbling Duck”?

Dabbler
Let me just explain what a Dabbler is; a “dabbler” is someone who engages in an activity such as trading superficially or without serious intent.

Hold on, don't answer just yet.

Therefore a “Dabbling Duck” might be a trader who;

1) Looks at the 3 Ducks Method every now and again without any real plan or serious intent to trade with it.

2) A “Dabbling Duck” might be a trader who looks at their charts hours after the 3 Ducks lined up and say something like “I cudda had that one”.

3) A “Dabbling Duck” might be a trader who is lacking a clear plan and approach to their trading at the moment.


Do ya reckon ya might be a bit of a Dabbling Duck? I wont tell another person.


The opposite to a “Dabbling Duck” might be a “Diving Duck”

A “Diving Duck” might be a trader who is

1) Fully committed to trading with the 3 Ducks and has a clear plan and approach to their trading.

2) A “Diving Duck” might be a trader who fully understands what the 3 Ducks are trying to achieve and knows that the 3 Ducks are putting the probabilities in their favor.


Good trading to you in 2012,

Andy

 

[forexkunta]

Happy New Year Duck Hunters!!!! I do believe I will be a Diving Duck for 2012.

 

[bangkoker]

happy new year duck hunters!!!! I do believe i will be a diving duck for 2012.

+1

 

[Frederick Eclair]

Hi all - I've been trading on and off for several years but am new to the 3 ducks system. I

My question is whether those that regularly trade using this method would discount trades that appear highly correllated. In a closing post from 2011 there's mention of impending trades based on JPY, GBP and USD against the EUR. However, since they are likely to be highly correlated, would you necessarily wat to take each one or focus on one?

Any help much appreciated. Best, FE

 

[thebeez666]

Happy New Year to all Duck Hunters.
I am very new to this strategy and have just had my first winning trade after 4 losses.
Still I will keep going with the very small positions I am using and hopefully my technique will improve and become profitable.

 

[bangkoker]

Hi all - I've been trading on and off for several years but am new to the 3 ducks system. I

My question is whether those that regularly trade using this method would discount trades that appear highly correllated. In a closing post from 2011 there's mention of impending trades based on JPY, GBP and USD against the EUR. However, since they are likely to be highly correlated, would you necessarily wat to take each one or focus on one?

Any help much appreciated. Best, FE

I think this is part of the strategy, where you would make it your own based on risk tolerance, position size etc

It would certainly make sense to take in to account the fact you are basing all things on EUR(this is only my view of course) if for instance you were short on the Eur on all 3 then yes you are correlated and you would have to consider whether you wanted to take this into account and go for the best appearing option or go for all 3 but consider smaller position size..:-0

Of course you could have a situation where it was short Euro on 2 and long on 1.. and then you could argue it is less correlated and in fact you may even be lowering risks depending on relative strength of everything non Euro..

Just my two pence worth but hope it is helpful :clover:

 

[goodtyneguy]

Hi all - I've been trading on and off for several years but am new to the 3 ducks system. I

My question is whether those that regularly trade using this method would discount trades that appear highly correllated. In a closing post from 2011 there's mention of impending trades based on JPY, GBP and USD against the EUR. However, since they are likely to be highly correlated, would you necessarily wat to take each one or focus on one?

Any help much appreciated. Best, FE

Don't double your risk on highly corellated pairs, article here

 

[Frederick Eclair]

Excellent article -thanks. Based on this and given that I'm a directional trader and not hedging or trading spread between two futures with different contract dates I guess this knowledge of correlation closes down the options for trades at any given time. Not a good or bad thing but crucial to know and understand. Thanks again, fe

 

[mechmanuk]

can i please ask what charts package folks use, im just starting out again so a little rusty.

 

[Nigel-P]

Hi Everyone

I will be looking for trading opportunities on the AUD.JPY next week if my three ducks line up.

Everyone has their own style with this method. Personally I am quite selective in my trading and I only trade setups that I think have very good potential. I think that AUD.JPY could offer good potential for some short trades next week. Obviously I will only be trading when the ducks line up, and as always, I will be running my trades for as long as I can. I will be cutting my losers as quickly as possible if it is not working out as anticipated.

Have a good weekend.

Nigel