Best Thread The 3 Duck's Trading System

[neil]

Hi Traders,

Fortunately I wasn't awake for this one but if I was I would have taken a hit. It triggered during the night and got about 30 pips up and then reversed. Then the Manufacturing PMI sent price a bit crazy. The opportunity seems over for now. 1.5500 would need to be broken to persuade me to think about getting in short.

I attached a 5min chart.

Good trading

Nigel

Is this trade with the 3ducks sytem?
Where is the chart for the other time frames?
Why did you not enter on the first break of the 5 minute 60ema line - can you show where the time frames lined up where you took the trade?

 

[Nigel-P]

Hi Neil

Thanks for your questions.

1. Yes.
2. 4 Hr time frame is in my previous post 1840 (2 posts ago, including yours). I can post a 1 hour chart too, if you do not have a chart easily to hand yourself.
3. Please read post 1841. The ducks, in my view, lined up at the 1.5525 level.

I am currently short under 1.5500 but price is making very slow progress. It is not showing the momentum I usually prefer to see.

Good trading

Nigel

 

[bedsit]

Hi Neil

Thanks for your questions.

1. Yes.
2. 4 Hr time frame is in my previous post 1840 (2 posts ago, including yours). I can post a 1 hour chart too, if you do not have a chart easily to hand yourself.
3. Please read post 1841. The ducks, in my view, lined up at the 1.5525 level.

I am currently short under 1.5500 but price is making very slow progress. It is not showing the momentum I usually prefer to see.

Good trading

Nigel

Not much momentum - still think it should go south in the near future

 

[Nigel-P]

Too right bedsit.

It's great when price just charges down 50/60 pips. This doesn't look lok like its one of those occasions! I'm gonna sit it out but will be quick to close if price climbs back above 1.5500.

Nigel

 

[bedsit]

It climbed enough for me to give it a miss.

 

[Nigel-P]

Out

-40 pips altogether.

On to the next one.

Nigel

 

[bedsit]

What a painful price action.

Waste of time - loss, profit... At the end b/e

 

[julianthompson]

I'm sure I'm being stupid but if the candles are below (or above) the 60ma on the 4hr, 1hr and 5 min tf and in agreement with each other do I have to wait for the candle cross on the 5min tf or can I jump in at any time if all the rules agree?

 

[Nigel-P]

Hi

I re-entered short GBPUSD yesterday with a 10 pip stop at 1.5495. I was lucky enough to cash out this morning with 86 pips so + 46 pips overall.

I give myself a strict maximum of 50 pips to "spend" on each trade which I don't necessarily use all in one go. I had 10 pips left yesterday so decided to give it one last shot. Sometimes I close if price goes against me with a view to entering again if it looks to be moving in my direction. This helps me cope with some of the "false breaks" you invariably get with this strategy.

Good trading

Nigel

 

[Nigel-P]

Hi Julian

I usually wait until price is testing or has broken the last low (if you're selling) on the 5 min chart. I'll post a chart if you like.

Nigel

 

[bedsit]

Hi

I re-entered short GBPUSD yesterday with a 10 pip stop at 1.5495. I was lucky enough to cash out this morning with 86 pips so + 46 pips overall.

I give myself a strict maximum of 50 pips to "spend" on each trade which I don't necessarily use all in one go. I had 10 pips left yesterday so decided to give it one last shot. Sometimes I close if price goes against me with a view to entering again if it looks to be moving in my direction. This helps me cope with some of the "false breaks" you invariably get with this strategy.

Good trading

Nigel

Nice one Nigel.

I was tricked out at first as well - afterwards re entered short and b/e at the end.

 

[julianthompson]

Hi Nigel, I'd appreciate a chart if you have one handy (to avoid further confusion on my part!)

 

[Nigel-P]

Hi Julian

This is an AUDUSD short from last week. These are the sorts of trades that this strategy is all about. If you persevere these inevitably come along every now and again and the profits from them can wipe away all of the losers that you might get with the frustrating trades (like GBP/USD yesterday, now that was a headache). Provided you keep the losers small of course!

If you have any questions just shoot. I don't see much that is interesting me on the charts today so I'm happy to chat. It took a while for me to get used to this approach but I am making consistent gains with it now. I learnt a lot from a few people on forums so maybe its my turn to try to help.

Good trading

Nigel

 

[Nigel-P]

I should say as well that if you are looking for a safer entry point, keep an eye on the previous low on the 1 hr chart too, this can sometimes be a less aggressive entry but offers a bit more security. Will post a chart.

 

[julianthompson]

That's great Nigel and I do appreciate your time.

I've drawn on your 5 min chart to highlight my next question:

If I 'missed' your entry point would I then be able to get into the trade where I marked (thin red line) using the more recent low (shown as the thick red line)?

Or is it only after a recent cross of the 60ma?

I Hope that makes sense.

 

[Nigel-P]

HI

This is the only one that I am looking at this morning and even with that I am reluctant because I am far from convinced about the Euro. Nevertheless it is a good example of looking at the previous hourly high (or low) when seeking to determine an entry point.

Its EUR.NZD. It's not a recommendation!

Nigel

 

[Nigel-P]

Hi Julian

Yes, as Andy has said, the 3 smas are a guide and the cardinal rule is that price is below all three moving averages before a trade is taken.

I have found through my own trading my most successful entries are the ones that are made quite close to the 1 hr sma. This is just my preference but it seems to give you a better chance of a bigger move, thus increasing your risk v reward ratio. If you are entering after the market has already moved a significant amount in your intended direction, you increase the risk that you are entering as the move is gradually becoming exhausted thus becoming more likely to reverse. I'll post a chart.

By the way, I don't consider myself an expert in this. Any other veterans are welcome to point out any mistakes!

A good piece of advice is that you're never too late to the market, you're always too early.

Nigel

 

[Nigel-P]

I don't like to see that the market has moved a big distance already before I enter. I prefer to get in at the beginning of a move, not the end.

If it is seems that the train has left the station I'm not going to leg it off down the track after it, I'll just wait for the next one.

In this example the market has already moved 80 pips before it reaches the purple entry point.

Nigel

 

[Nigel-P]

HI

This is the only one that I am looking at this morning and even with that I am reluctant because I am far from convinced about the Euro. Nevertheless it is a good example of looking at the previous hourly high (or low) when seeking to determine an entry point.

Its EUR.NZD. It's not a recommendation!

Nigel

I went with this trade in the end. It triggered just 10 minutes before Ben Bernanke started to speak so it was quite a stressful trade. Spreads widened significantly but there was no meaningful move in either direction. I think you have to make your own mind up regarding trading around scheduled news. There is a school of thought that says you should never do it. But the direction generated by news releases can make for great trades. My view is that if you stick to the same rule of keeping your winners bigger than your losers, economic releases aren't necessarily a time that you must avoid the market. Different strokes for different folks.

Anyway, the trade is currently 30 pips in profit as I write, having been as high as 60. I want to see 1.76 act as support, I will close if price moves below that area. Otherwise I intend to let this mature overnight to see what happens. I intend to either close out at a good profit or else a small loss, that's the name of the game.

Good trading

Nigel

 

[julianthompson]

Many thanks for your help today Nigel, I'll do some testing and let the board know how it goes.