But IMHO, I personally would be wary of taking a long trade here, because of the fact the pair has been in a Down trend looking at the 4hr 60 SMA...this for me is where the discretionary part comes into play, maybe as you point out, a close of the 4hr bar above the 60 SMA, could be a deciding factor and confirmation for a long entry.
I have decided that any trades I will take using this system, will be in line with the major TF...therefore the 4hr trend..that would be rule no 1 for me.
Good luck.
Agreed 100% with what you say....3 ducks is trading WITH the trend.....and this pair has been in a pretty strong downtrend.
I would not be buying that pair until the 4 hour SMA is clearly in an uptrend
I would also like to suggest to the original poster that if you really want to learn the 3 ducks that you focus ONLY on the 3 ducks method (and remove the Stochastics and Trix indicators from your charts)
3 ducks is a VERY simple method.
Indicators tell you what price has been doing, but the emphasis is on the word "has".
To learn to trade one needs to learn what price is GOING to do.
(or at least has a higher probability of going to do)
I am not going to go into detail, as I have taken the one on one training with Andy and I will not (out of respect for Andy) reveal what was taught in that session.
(it is not brain surgery, it is pretty simple stuff, but it works)
I will say that before the training I had about 12 different templates with different indicators on each, I was glued the the screen for hours a day......I was trading with the trend, counter trend, break outs, bounces off support and resistance, gut feeling and all sorts of other methods. Now I trade ONLY the 3 ducks.....I trade ONLY with the trend, and I place my trades once a day. It is early days for me, but I have had 6 winning trades and one losing trade (and the losing trade was in profit by 35 pips but I let it go against me)
There are likely tons and tons of systems that will work if you stick to it.
3 ducks is one of them. I like it because it is simple.
Best wishes
Keith