Best Thread The 3 Duck's Trading System

[rsh01]

I believe the Irish has given the world the best whiskies and now this!

Easy now! Though I have recently found out that whisky (notice the missing 'e') was brought over by the irish migrants when they landed on the scottish isles, but for now I am drinking scotch.

Gl trading.

 

[Brodwyn]

Easy now! Though I have recently found out that whisky (notice the missing 'e') was brought over by the irish migrants when they landed on the scottish isles, but for now I am drinking scotch.

Gl trading.

:cheesy: I knew that comment would stoke a fire somewhere -- excuse my candor. Truth be told, I enjoy both Irish and Scottish single malts exported to us, but for some unscientific reason, I find myself drinking more of the Irish goods.

 

[Brodwyn]

Ok, here goes my first 3 duck analysis in preparation for tomorrow (maybe this week)...

One of the things I picked up here is that we must try to shortlist the pairs that have the weakest and strongest currencies in them. I started a daily routine of looking at all the pairs that have combinations of USD, JPY, EUR, GBP, AUD, NZD, CAD and CHF.

My simple and quick technique is to look at the H4 charts of these pairs and see where price is relative to the 60SMA. On any given pair,

- If price is trending and on the respective side of the SMA, I give the strong currency a +2 and the weak currency a -2.
- If price is not trending and the SMA is flat with price moving below, above, below, above... the SMA, I give the strong pair at the time of analysis a +1 and the weak pair a -1.
- If price has just crossed the SMA, but has been trending for a while in the other direction, I give the strong pair +1 and the weak pair -1.

All of this takes me a couple of minutes in my routine and the following matrix is what my Friday's close analysis yields. Yes, the details are subjective with respective to absolute currency strengths, but WRT to the 1st duck information we use, it's fairly accurate to the overall weak currencies and overall strong currencies because of consistency across many pairs.

As we can immediately see, the Yen is currently weak in all its pairs and the NZD has been strong in all its pairs. Second weak spot goes to the EUR and the second strong spot goes to the AUD. And like that, I have the four pairs I will be focusing on (tomorrow -- I believe this needs to be done daily):

NZDJPY
AUDJPY
EURNZD
EURAUD

So next is my quick snapshot of the 1st duck status on all these pairs and my if-then scenarios on each of them (having looked at the other two ducks as well). As seen, all are clearly trending with SMAs pointing in the right direction. For sake of not overstepping my post length as a newcomer, I've just included my summaries on the H4 charts. All instances of planned entries goes without saying that all three ducks must be lined up. Also, I will only enter one trade/scenario at a time (and consider another one if a former trade is protected with SL movement).

Even though NZDJPY has the weakest/strongest match, my preference goes to EURAUD, with the retracement price closest to the SMA. The first duck is still lined up as seen. The second duck (H1) is not lined up yet, but when 1.2460 breaks, the 2nd and 3rd ducks would be lined up with a 60pip distance to the retest of the lows. With a 20pip SL, that is a potential 1:3RR.

So... would anybody seasoned in this method (and in trading in general) care to offer me a critique -- is my approach in line with the philosophy of the 3 ducks? Too much analysis, too little? Is my logic sound. Are these trade ideas one they would consider? If not, why?

I will greatly appreciate any feedback and will take no offense to whatever way it is administered. I want to learn.

 

[Nigel-P]

Very impressive analysis Brodwyn, I like what you've done there! If you are interested in pairing strong v weak check out NVP's FX correlator, I'm sure you have seen his posts on this thread.

If you have any questions just ask; I'm sure someone around here will be happy to help.

Good trading

Nigel

 

[Brodwyn]

Very impressive analysis Brodwyn, I like what you've done there! If you are interested in pairing strong v weak check out NVP's FX correlator, I'm sure you have seen his posts on this thread.

If you have any questions just ask; I'm sure someone around here will be happy to help.

Good trading

Nigel

Thanks for the feedback Nigel. Your posts have been a great assistance to my learning here, so I really appreciate your response.

Thanks for the heads up on NVP's FX-correlator -- the visual is a nice touch. Tell me, though, is the idea to trade the pair with the weakest and strongest currency matched OR to find the overall weak/strong currency and trade any pair with the currency it that is trending "neatly"?

 

[Nigel-P]

Thanks for the feedback Nigel. Your posts have been a great assistance to my learning here, so I really appreciate your response.

No worries Brodwyn

If you have any questions about the Correlator it's probably best to address to them to NVP himself, he's in here every now and again. Or over on his own thread.

Keep posting, you'll find good tips in here and the thread is only good when people post in it. I remember a while back posting in here and I felt like I was talking to myself sometimes - it's much busier now though which is great.

Good trading

Nigel

 

[Brodwyn]

No worries Brodwyn

If you have any questions about the Correlator it's probably best to address to them to NVP himself, he's in here every now and again. Or over on his own thread.

Keep posting, you'll find good tips in here and the thread is only good when people post in it. I remember a while back posting in here and I felt like I was talking to myself sometimes - it's much busier now though which is great.

Good trading

Nigel

Well I hope you take up posting at the pace you previously did -- nobody complained and there were only compliments on your posts, so the jury is out on that one!

Anyways, my question was not about the correlator, but about three ducks trading (or trading in general). In principle, do we ideally want to trade the pair containing what we establish as the present weakest/strongest currencies OR do we determine what is the weakest currency (or strongest) at present and just look for the best signal in ANY pair it's found in (except maybe paired with another equally weak currency, as CC explains there will be whipsaws)?

Maybe you could share how you decide on a pair for a day (if indeed you pick one per day -- I remember you wrote you like to hold a trade for a while). I've read CC covers this in his course, so I'll learn his techniques when I eventually do the course, but for now I would love to hear thoughts on this in the open forum.

 

[rathcoole_exile]

I believe the Irish have given the world the best whiskies and now this!

as a Brit
(although I also hold an Irish passport due to their pernicious claim on the North)
I have to politely correct you Brodwyn.

The best whiskey in the world is, of course, BLACK BUSH from BUSHMILLS, which is in Co. Antrim.

That southern stuff, Jamesons & Paddy etc is okay for lighting the turf with, but shouldn't be consumed
(unless, of course, the only alternative is that scottish pish)

(and don't get me started about american 'whiskey' hahahahah)


Andy, sorry for the off-topic, but as it's about a subject I'm sure is dear to both our hearts, I hope you'll forgive me ?

 

[NVP]

Well I hope you take up posting at the pace you previously did -- nobody complained and there were only compliments on your posts, so the jury is out on that one!

Anyways, my question was not about the correlator, but about three ducks trading (or trading in general). In principle, do we ideally want to trade the pair containing what we establish as the present weakest/strongest currencies OR do we determine what is the weakest currency (or strongest) at present and just look for the best signal in ANY pair it's found in (except maybe paired with another equally weak currency, as CC explains there will be whipsaws)?

Maybe you could share how you decide on a pair for a day (if indeed you pick one per day -- I remember you wrote you like to hold a trade for a while). I've read CC covers this in his course, so I'll learn his techniques when I eventually do the course, but for now I would love to hear thoughts on this in the open forum.

best question of the month on T2W.......:smart:

 

[NVP]

Ok, here goes my first 3 duck analysis in preparation for tomorrow (maybe this week)...

One of the things I picked up here is that we must try to shortlist the pairs that have the weakest and strongest currencies in them. I started a daily routine of looking at all the pairs that have combinations of USD, JPY, EUR, GBP, AUD, NZD, CAD and CHF.

My simple and quick technique is to look at the H4 charts of these pairs and see where price is relative to the 60SMA. On any given pair,

- If price is trending and on the respective side of the SMA, I give the strong currency a +2 and the weak currency a -2.
- If price is not trending and the SMA is flat with price moving below, above, below, above... the SMA, I give the strong pair at the time of analysis a +1 and the weak pair a -1.
- If price has just crossed the SMA, but has been trending for a while in the other direction, I give the strong pair +1 and the weak pair -1.

All of this takes me a couple of minutes in my routine and the following matrix is what my Friday's close analysis yields. Yes, the details are subjective with respective to absolute currency strengths, but WRT to the 1st duck information we use, it's fairly accurate to the overall weak currencies and overall strong currencies because of consistency across many pairs.

As we can immediately see, the Yen is currently weak in all its pairs and the NZD has been strong in all its pairs. Second weak spot goes to the EUR and the second strong spot goes to the AUD. And like that, I have the four pairs I will be focusing on (tomorrow -- I believe this needs to be done daily):

NZDJPY
AUDJPY
EURNZD
EURAUD

So next is my quick snapshot of the 1st duck status on all these pairs and my if-then scenarios on each of them (having looked at the other two ducks as well). As seen, all are clearly trending with SMAs pointing in the right direction. For sake of not overstepping my post length as a newcomer, I've just included my summaries on the H4 charts. All instances of planned entries goes without saying that all three ducks must be lined up. Also, I will only enter one trade/scenario at a time (and consider another one if a former trade is protected with SL movement).

Even though NZDJPY has the weakest/strongest match, my preference goes to EURAUD, with the retracement price closest to the SMA. The first duck is still lined up as seen. The second duck (H1) is not lined up yet, but when 1.2460 breaks, the 2nd and 3rd ducks would be lined up with a 60pip distance to the retest of the lows. With a 20pip SL, that is a potential 1:3RR.

So... would anybody seasoned in this method (and in trading in general) care to offer me a critique -- is my approach in line with the philosophy of the 3 ducks? Too much analysis, too little? Is my logic sound. Are these trade ideas one they would consider? If not, why?

I will greatly appreciate any feedback and will take no offense to whatever way it is administered. I want to learn.

hey B

without interupting caps great thread (I am a big fan) I do have some 3 ducks postings in my thread over the years so just have a look there at one example of usage....

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/for...-basic-ideas-strategies-1079.html#post1835134

and heres a 60ma FXcorrelator showing current position and direction of 8 currencies .....is that what you want to see ?....I hate Grids

currently the NZD is top of the pile and the Euro is the dog.....

use 2 more indicators with the other 3 duck settings and its another way to watch for caps signals

N

 

[Brodwyn]

Your correlator shows EUR and NZD (weak/strong)? :clap:
My own manual grid point system said the same!

And thus, I am currently short the EURNZD (after the last daily Pinbar broke, target around the next daily lows at 1.5600 (it's about 7R away, given my 30 pip stop).

I technically could have entered earlier, looking at the 5min, but I wanted the daily bullish PB tail to break.

Anyways, I see price retracing at present -- I hope it turns out to be an opportunity to add a position versus hunting my SL (which is still in original position -- didn't want to move to BE too early since we know price likes to test logical entry points, as Nigel demonstrated before).

Anyways, NVP, I like your work on correlations -- I'll look through your thread in more detail this weekend.

 

[kingich]

Hi Brod,

This is really great what you're doing.

I have one suggestion. I remembered the CC article named "looking for clues in the market", and got the idea that we could even compare two strongest and two weak currencies.

Two strong currencies are AUD and NZD, and AND/NZD is below 60SMA on 4h chart, so strongest currency is NZD. Looking two weakest currencies, we see EUR and JPY where on EUR/JPY pair, EUR/JPY is below 60SMA, indicating that EUR is the weakest currency. So shorting EUR/NZD pair could be most optimal solution.

Correct me if I'm wrong.

best regards!

Ok, here goes my first 3 duck analysis in preparation for tomorrow (maybe this week)...

One of the things I picked up here is that we must try to shortlist the pairs that have the weakest and strongest currencies in them. I started a daily routine of looking at all the pairs that have combinations of USD, JPY, EUR, GBP, AUD, NZD, CAD and CHF.

My simple and quick technique is to look at the H4 charts of these pairs and see where price is relative to the 60SMA. On any given pair,

- If price is trending and on the respective side of the SMA, I give the strong currency a +2 and the weak currency a -2.
- If price is not trending and the SMA is flat with price moving below, above, below, above... the SMA, I give the strong pair at the time of analysis a +1 and the weak pair a -1.
- If price has just crossed the SMA, but has been trending for a while in the other direction, I give the strong pair +1 and the weak pair -1.

All of this takes me a couple of minutes in my routine and the following matrix is what my Friday's close analysis yields. Yes, the details are subjective with respective to absolute currency strengths, but WRT to the 1st duck information we use, it's fairly accurate to the overall weak currencies and overall strong currencies because of consistency across many pairs.

As we can immediately see, the Yen is currently weak in all its pairs and the NZD has been strong in all its pairs. Second weak spot goes to the EUR and the second strong spot goes to the AUD. And like that, I have the four pairs I will be focusing on (tomorrow -- I believe this needs to be done daily):

NZDJPY
AUDJPY
EURNZD
EURAUD

So next is my quick snapshot of the 1st duck status on all these pairs and my if-then scenarios on each of them (having looked at the other two ducks as well). As seen, all are clearly trending with SMAs pointing in the right direction. For sake of not overstepping my post length as a newcomer, I've just included my summaries on the H4 charts. All instances of planned entries goes without saying that all three ducks must be lined up. Also, I will only enter one trade/scenario at a time (and consider another one if a former trade is protected with SL movement).

Even though NZDJPY has the weakest/strongest match, my preference goes to EURAUD, with the retracement price closest to the SMA. The first duck is still lined up as seen. The second duck (H1) is not lined up yet, but when 1.2460 breaks, the 2nd and 3rd ducks would be lined up with a 60pip distance to the retest of the lows. With a 20pip SL, that is a potential 1:3RR.

So... would anybody seasoned in this method (and in trading in general) care to offer me a critique -- is my approach in line with the philosophy of the 3 ducks? Too much analysis, too little? Is my logic sound. Are these trade ideas one they would consider? If not, why?

I will greatly appreciate any feedback and will take no offense to whatever way it is administered. I want to learn.

 

[Brodwyn]

Hi Brod,

This is really great what you're doing.

I have one suggestion. I remembered the CC article named "looking for clues in the market", and got the idea that we could even compare two strongest and two weak currencies.

Two strong currencies are AUD and NZD, and AND/NZD is below 60SMA on 4h chart, so strongest currency is NZD. Looking two weakest currencies, we see EUR and JPY where on EUR/JPY pair, EUR/JPY is below 60SMA, indicating that EUR is the weakest currency. So shorting EUR/NZD pair could be most optimal solution.

Correct me if I'm wrong.

best regards!

That seems logical and quick. It will definitely work for a daily snapshot. Thanks.

The only thing is that the rankings change daily of these currencies (with my points system) -- overall the weak and strong still stay in the region of weak and strong for a while (because using H4 info), but their rankings move up and down. Look at my grid today, Yen is not where it was the other day.

​

So I would say my manual way just captures a point in time, but it's weakness is I can't see the rate of changes up to the point I've been analysing. This is important because if a currency is showing strongest, but has been weakening of recent, I would rather take the second strongest currency that maybe is showing strengthening. This is the reason I want to explore further NVPs work, because I can see his visuals show the curves of the currencies strength/weakness.

Anyways, I'm new to this, so above all, I want to guard myself becoming too mechanical and to keep it very simple, else it becomes an opportunity cost to grow in discretion. This is the reason I am drawn to CCs 3 ducks. It's simple, it has objective guidelines (is that an oxymoron?) and gives room for a trader to grow in discretion.

 

[NVP]

Anyways, I'm new to this, so above all, I want to guard myself becoming too mechanical and to keep it very simple, else it becomes an opportunity cost to grow in discretion. This is the reason I am drawn to CCs 3 ducks. It's simple, it has objective guidelines (is that an oxymoron?) and gives room for a trader to grow in discretion.

10000% yes .....I love Andys 3 ducks !!!

anyway we are hijacking Caps thread gang ......albeit we are still talking his system !

happy to discuss anything re currency dynamics on my thread if needed....its a very interesting world I can assure you .....

N

 

[Captain Currency]

I remembered the CC article named "looking for clues in the market"

Short read (5 mins)
Improve Your Trading By Looking For Clues In The Market.pdf

Hope that helps you by another 1%

Andy

 

[Captain Currency]

Greeting Trend Traders,

Two currency pairs that are currently looking good for Duck Hunters are;
1. Eur.Gbp
2. Aud.Usd

Over the next 48-72 hours you could be keeping an eye on these pairs, your Ducks favor shorts on the Eur.Gbp and longs on the Aussie.

Bite, Run, Bully
Hopefully you get a chance to trade and take a bite out of one of these pairs at a good risk versus reward ratio or let a winning trade run or even bully the pair and add to your winning 3 Ducks trade.

All bets are off
For me all long bets would be off the table on Aud.Usd if we get a break and hold below the 1.0000 area in the coming days.

Andy


These are not trade recommendations. The 3 Ducks Trading System is best used as a set of guidelines with discretion in addition with your own market analysis and trading ideas.

 

[Brodwyn]

So I got stopped about by a few pips on the first attempt yesterday (after seeing price go past +1R) on EURNZD.
Tried it again today for the same reasons (and since final target was far away). This time I just went for the standard 1:2RR (25pips:50pips) -- got my profit target today! So +1R overall from the two trades.

Few things I observe from both trades. Not sure if I can conclude yet, but just observations:

1. If I took the trade yesterday at the 5min SMA+low break, I would have got a 1:2RR trade, instead of waiting to enter on the break of the daily PB low. It was a logical entry, but just observing the alternative.

2. I had a target of 7R with plans of adding -- was seeing the big profit rolling in, but got nothing in the end (actually got a loss). Today went for a 1:2RR and got it -- much better than nothing. So maybe as a beginner (just thinking out loud here), I just go with daily 1:2RR (even if I can see far away Targets) until I get a feel for the markets (get better at picking more winners) and then later in my development add bigger target profits and adding positions. I wonder though if training my mind with 1:2RR thinking will affect wanting to add the other closing strategies later.

Anyways, thanks CC for the article about looking for clues in the market (I like that you always keep it simple) and for the heads up on EURGBP and AUDUSD. With big Euro news (event) tomorrow, is it best to stay clear of EURGBP? You say you normally stay away on NFP and Interest rates, but does non-regular big news also count?

Thanks.

Your correlator shows EUR and NZD (weak/strong)? :clap:
My own manual grid point system said the same!

And thus, I am currently short the EURNZD (after the last daily Pinbar broke, target around the next daily lows at 1.5600 (it's about 7R away, given my 30 pip stop).

I technically could have entered earlier, looking at the 5min, but I wanted the daily bullish PB tail to break.

Anyways, I see price retracing at present -- I hope it turns out to be an opportunity to add a position versus hunting my SL (which is still in original position -- didn't want to move to BE too early since we know price likes to test logical entry points, as Nigel demonstrated before).

Anyways, NVP, I like your work on correlations -- I'll look through your thread in more detail this weekend.

 

[Stolentortoise]

I am going to hold my hands up and say I was a bad hunter last week. I got tempted by new hunting grounds. Now that I have got over that and given the market back 10% I have returned to the fold.

1% gain for me yesterday, from a 0.5% stake just to clear what I was doing in my own head.

The ducks are your friends, it doesn't have to be difficult, so why the hell did I try and make it so!? Public rant at oneself, always beneficial

 

[Allistah]

Has any key had any luck in using this system on something other than currency pairs? I'm interested in using it on futures like ES, CL, YM, GC, etc.

Thanks,

-Allistah

 

[Stolentortoise]

Finished last week with a 1.8% gain for the week.

Overall still up on the initial investement but not a great month for me, which is purely down to me. Looking forward to trading well in July.