Masquerade
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So you're up £8.5k since mid february using a £10k account? That's nice going. I assume you're increasing bet sizes as your account grows?
Thanks yes that is correct. I increased stakes/bank beginning of April once I had more confidence in this. April was a profitable month but not as good as usual so increase in stakes made a small improvement. Best to look at the "Pts" figure. This tells you a £100 liability per bet would have made £6500 over that period. Though I started by saying 10000 was a comfortable bank size it really depends on how risk averse you are. No more than a 3rd of the overall bank is ever used up in bets at any one point in time (so far) so as much as 3% could have been risked for much bigger profits but also higher risk of going bankrupt. The return would have been much more impressive if I had started with 2% of bank as the p&l would have now stood at over 15k which is why I prefer the Profit On Turnover (POT) figure - as a lot of the time the risk/reward is down to how risk averse one is. Just like stocks versus bonds I suppose?
DashRiprock
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what software are you using?
and what is your basic appproach?
good work on the numbers
and what is your basic appproach?
good work on the numbers
My basic approach (I think I explained in early posts), is to look at factors which don't seem to be accounted for in the odds (or miscalculated) i.e., impact of transition from one surface to another, collateral form etc. Put them together, and decide on what the basic oddsline should be. This is an artform I suppose, as I like to decide what odds I would be happy to back/lay at are. If the bookies/bf odds are sufficiently out of kilter, i.e., say 7% then I would look at in more detail to ensure I haven't missed anything (niggling injury etc). If my more detailed revised odds are still out of kilter it is worth a bet. I then place bet into a database I have written and a custom bot drips my bet into the market trying to get best odds. Once bet fully placed, I submit here. Obviously there are several weak markets where my bets don't get matched fully in which case they do not get posted here.
In summary, it is about finding what I consider "value" prices.
All the data is available at WTA / ATP tour, Davis cup and ITF websites - a quick google should find them (not sure if links allowed to be posted)?
In summary, it is about finding what I consider "value" prices.
All the data is available at WTA / ATP tour, Davis cup and ITF websites - a quick google should find them (not sure if links allowed to be posted)?
DashRiprock
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sounds like you got a proper set up there mate
are you in one of those arcades?
are you in one of those arcades?
Afraid you have lost me there, unless you refer to me writing "dripping bets in" like one of those 2p arcade machines lol?
DashRiprock
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no I mean like sports arcades, like a trading floor for sports traders. I guess not anyhow
Djokovic bet above was a very awkward one to decide - right on the verge of my odds limit. Worthy of another punt, trouble with these low odds shots are you only expect them to come through about 1in 20 but is usually okay when interspersed with other bets - but not on losing days like today