Lud Trader
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Technical FOREX analyses by IVT
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Lud Trader
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Technical analysis on the USD/CAD
All my technical analyses on the Japanese Yen will be posted here with 1 day of delay. Contact me if you want them in real time.
All my technical analyses on the Japanese Yen will be posted here with 1 day of delay. Contact me if you want them in real time.
Lud Trader
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4th of December
$USDCAD*The pair was approaching the key resistance and possible the upper line of a regression channel where I expected to see a bearish price action. I was not able to propose a short signal on Friday (the resistance was not reached) but I know that some of you succeeded to go short. Very nice, hold your position, target the median line as a logical theorical TP. If the market were to make a new low to validate a double top structure and break below the actual support, I would be able to propose a short opportunity after a retracement phase. For those who are short on this pair, the current support could be a first take profit area.
$USDCAD*The pair was approaching the key resistance and possible the upper line of a regression channel where I expected to see a bearish price action. I was not able to propose a short signal on Friday (the resistance was not reached) but I know that some of you succeeded to go short. Very nice, hold your position, target the median line as a logical theorical TP. If the market were to make a new low to validate a double top structure and break below the actual support, I would be able to propose a short opportunity after a retracement phase. For those who are short on this pair, the current support could be a first take profit area.
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5th of December - USDOLLAR
A bearish move has been initiated lower than expected on the USDOLLAR. Usually prices reach at least 38.2% before that the main trend resumes. Prices are currently in the middle of the regression channel. The bias is bearish even though for the moment there is really no potential for a trading opportunity based on our strategy and technics. The support level at 11,925 is really too close from a potential entry point. If prices were to reach 11,989, then I will be looking for a short opportunity. I will keep you updated all day long on the chat today.
A bearish move has been initiated lower than expected on the USDOLLAR. Usually prices reach at least 38.2% before that the main trend resumes. Prices are currently in the middle of the regression channel. The bias is bearish even though for the moment there is really no potential for a trading opportunity based on our strategy and technics. The support level at 11,925 is really too close from a potential entry point. If prices were to reach 11,989, then I will be looking for a short opportunity. I will keep you updated all day long on the chat today.
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5th of December - EURO DOLLAR
The EURUSD is building a triangle pattern in the 4-hour time frame. A triangle is a price pattern where the price moves within a narrowing price area. This triangle pattern shows indecision. The upper line of the Andrews’ Pitchfork in the daily time frame and the upward regression channel in the 4-hour time frame. The momentum is decreasing and might reverse. If prices were to break below 1.18, we will be looking for a short trade to target the following TPs : 1.1760 and 1.1632. In the 4-hour time frame the Risk Reward Ratio is not good enough, so it is advisable to enter this market in a smaller time frame, such as the 1-hour time frame. While there is no breakout, the bias is neutral.
The EURUSD is building a triangle pattern in the 4-hour time frame. A triangle is a price pattern where the price moves within a narrowing price area. This triangle pattern shows indecision. The upper line of the Andrews’ Pitchfork in the daily time frame and the upward regression channel in the 4-hour time frame. The momentum is decreasing and might reverse. If prices were to break below 1.18, we will be looking for a short trade to target the following TPs : 1.1760 and 1.1632. In the 4-hour time frame the Risk Reward Ratio is not good enough, so it is advisable to enter this market in a smaller time frame, such as the 1-hour time frame. While there is no breakout, the bias is neutral.
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5th of December - POUND DOLLAR
Friday’s trading plan worked out perfectly well as we sold the Pound Dollar on the level at 1.3540. The market reached TP1. Yesterday, the market reached a short-term support level, so we were able to suggest a long trade with a combo setup. It could seem contradictory, but it is not as in trading all that matters are the setups and the money management. Both trades can be profitable as the stop loss and TP levels are not overlapping. We traded the Buying COMBO setup in the 2-hour time frame, and the market have reached TP1, so our position was protected, and we also closed 50% of the initial position. Now, we keep the same trading plan, we need to break below the 1.34 to reinforce our hypothesis that a swing high has indeed been validated. The stop loss can be lowered to 1.3545.
Friday’s trading plan worked out perfectly well as we sold the Pound Dollar on the level at 1.3540. The market reached TP1. Yesterday, the market reached a short-term support level, so we were able to suggest a long trade with a combo setup. It could seem contradictory, but it is not as in trading all that matters are the setups and the money management. Both trades can be profitable as the stop loss and TP levels are not overlapping. We traded the Buying COMBO setup in the 2-hour time frame, and the market have reached TP1, so our position was protected, and we also closed 50% of the initial position. Now, we keep the same trading plan, we need to break below the 1.34 to reinforce our hypothesis that a swing high has indeed been validated. The stop loss can be lowered to 1.3545.
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5th of December - USDJPY
For the moment, is it difficult to confirm is the retracement phase is over, and so if the bearish trend, initiated at 114.7, will resume at any moment. It is advisable to wait that prices reach the levels around 113.26 – 113.41 to look for a short opportunity. It is advisable to trade the bearish COMBO setups in the 15-min time frame, as it will allow you to protect quickly your position.
For the moment, is it difficult to confirm is the retracement phase is over, and so if the bearish trend, initiated at 114.7, will resume at any moment. It is advisable to wait that prices reach the levels around 113.26 – 113.41 to look for a short opportunity. It is advisable to trade the bearish COMBO setups in the 15-min time frame, as it will allow you to protect quickly your position.
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5th of December - AUDUSD
We were expected the AUDUSD to make a new high, and it did occur this night. TP2 is now really close to be reached, please hold the position. It is advisable to lighten up your position on the current levels at 0.7640-0.7660. The stop loss can be set at 0.7595. TP3 remains the same at 0.7733.
We were expected the AUDUSD to make a new high, and it did occur this night. TP2 is now really close to be reached, please hold the position. It is advisable to lighten up your position on the current levels at 0.7640-0.7660. The stop loss can be set at 0.7595. TP3 remains the same at 0.7733.
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5th of December - USDCAD
The USDCAD show an impulse in 5 sub-waves. We expect a retracement phase in 3 sub waves according to Elliott Waves theory. The trading strategy is to wait the end of the retracement phase to find a selling opportunity. In the following days, I will provide you the logical levels for the stop loss and the respective TPs.
The USDCAD show an impulse in 5 sub-waves. We expect a retracement phase in 3 sub waves according to Elliott Waves theory. The trading strategy is to wait the end of the retracement phase to find a selling opportunity. In the following days, I will provide you the logical levels for the stop loss and the respective TPs.
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6th of December - US dollar
The USDOLLAR is currently in the upper part of the regression channel and below the resistance level at 11,980. This level corresponds to the retracement level at 38.2%.
The only trading plan is to short the USDOLLAR. It is advisable to take some profit on the short position on the GBPUSD. As a reminder, we are still looking for a selling opportunity on the USD/JPY while the EURUSD is on a support level, so no short possible for the immediate future.
The USDOLLAR is currently in the upper part of the regression channel and below the resistance level at 11,980. This level corresponds to the retracement level at 38.2%.
The only trading plan is to short the USDOLLAR. It is advisable to take some profit on the short position on the GBPUSD. As a reminder, we are still looking for a selling opportunity on the USD/JPY while the EURUSD is on a support level, so no short possible for the immediate future.
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6th of December - EURUSD
No Change for the EURUSD. There is a lack of volatility on this pair. The bearish combo given yesterday in the 1- hour time frame on the chat has reached TP1, but our position was closed to BE. Prices are currently around the support level at 1.18. The only selling opportunity will be to wait a break below the support level at 1.18, and then to wait for a pull back to give us an easy entry point.
I will be looking for a buying opportunity if prices were to break above the Andrews’s Pitchfork.
No Change for the EURUSD. There is a lack of volatility on this pair. The bearish combo given yesterday in the 1- hour time frame on the chat has reached TP1, but our position was closed to BE. Prices are currently around the support level at 1.18. The only selling opportunity will be to wait a break below the support level at 1.18, and then to wait for a pull back to give us an easy entry point.
I will be looking for a buying opportunity if prices were to break above the Andrews’s Pitchfork.
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6th of December - GBPUSD
Prices fail to break below the support level at 1.34 and prices are facing a buying setup (combo) in the 4-hour time frame. There is a risk for our short trades in progress. TP1 was reached but it is advisable to lighten up this position again.
If prices were to close below the support level at 1.34, then we will be looking for extra short opportunities.
Prices fail to break below the support level at 1.34 and prices are facing a buying setup (combo) in the 4-hour time frame. There is a risk for our short trades in progress. TP1 was reached but it is advisable to lighten up this position again.
If prices were to close below the support level at 1.34, then we will be looking for extra short opportunities.
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6th of December - USDJPY
Prices may have made a new high on the level at 113. However, it was difficult to send a trading signal for a short opportunity as the Fibonacci cluster, with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level and the 100% Fibonacci expansion level, was a little but higher (113.4). The regression channel was uncertain and the resistance zone was very large.
Today’s trading plan is to trade with the berish trend thanks to combo in the 15-min time frame. If prices were to break below this retracement channel, then I will be looking for a short opportunity if a pullback occurred in the 1-hour or 4-hour time frame. But first, we need to make sure that this move is impulsive.
Prices may have made a new high on the level at 113. However, it was difficult to send a trading signal for a short opportunity as the Fibonacci cluster, with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level and the 100% Fibonacci expansion level, was a little but higher (113.4). The regression channel was uncertain and the resistance zone was very large.
Today’s trading plan is to trade with the berish trend thanks to combo in the 15-min time frame. If prices were to break below this retracement channel, then I will be looking for a short opportunity if a pullback occurred in the 1-hour or 4-hour time frame. But first, we need to make sure that this move is impulsive.
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6th of December - AUDUSD
Our position was automatically closed Break Even. No regret as TP1 and TP2 was reached. This trade was really profitable.
As a reminder, we were trading a retracement close to a low point on the channel. Prices fell to break above the resistance level at 0.762. Prices are now contained in a downward regression channel. It is not advisable to go long on the AUDUSD while prices are inside this bearish channel and below the resistance level at 0.762. If prices were to break above those resistances levels, it will make the most sense to go long after a pull back. The next selling opportunity will be given at the end of the potential following retracement phase, ideally with an entry point close to the neckline level.
Our position was automatically closed Break Even. No regret as TP1 and TP2 was reached. This trade was really profitable.
As a reminder, we were trading a retracement close to a low point on the channel. Prices fell to break above the resistance level at 0.762. Prices are now contained in a downward regression channel. It is not advisable to go long on the AUDUSD while prices are inside this bearish channel and below the resistance level at 0.762. If prices were to break above those resistances levels, it will make the most sense to go long after a pull back. The next selling opportunity will be given at the end of the potential following retracement phase, ideally with an entry point close to the neckline level.
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6th of December - USDCAD
THE USD CAD bounced off the lower line of the Andrews’s Pitchfork drawn on the graphic. Prices seems to have initiated a correction phase that might bring the price up to 1.2734. Experienced traders could attempt to take some long positions in lower time frame, with no leverage and potential combo in the 30-min time frame.
The main trading plan remains to look for selling opportunity at the end of the retracement phase, once prices reached the median line of the Andrews’ channel.
THE USD CAD bounced off the lower line of the Andrews’s Pitchfork drawn on the graphic. Prices seems to have initiated a correction phase that might bring the price up to 1.2734. Experienced traders could attempt to take some long positions in lower time frame, with no leverage and potential combo in the 30-min time frame.
The main trading plan remains to look for selling opportunity at the end of the retracement phase, once prices reached the median line of the Andrews’ channel.
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7th of December - USDOLLAR
Prices broke below its medium-term resistance level and the upper line of the channel on the 4-hour time frame. The bullish potential remains however limited as the resistance zones extends between 11,980 and 12,010. For the moment, it not safe to trade against this trend and we need to wait for a clear price action. To sum up I am bearish on the EURUSD and GBPUSD, cautious on the USDCAD and USDJPY.
Prices broke below its medium-term resistance level and the upper line of the channel on the 4-hour time frame. The bullish potential remains however limited as the resistance zones extends between 11,980 and 12,010. For the moment, it not safe to trade against this trend and we need to wait for a clear price action. To sum up I am bearish on the EURUSD and GBPUSD, cautious on the USDCAD and USDJPY.
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7th of December - EURUSD
Prices broke below its medium-term resistance level and the upper line of the channel on the 4-hour time frame. The bullish potential remains however limited as the resistance zones extends between 11,980 and 12,010. For the moment, it not safe to trade against this trend and we need to wait for a clear price action. To sum up I am bearish on the EURUSD and GBPUSD, cautious on the USDCAD and USDJPY.
Prices broke below its medium-term resistance level and the upper line of the channel on the 4-hour time frame. The bullish potential remains however limited as the resistance zones extends between 11,980 and 12,010. For the moment, it not safe to trade against this trend and we need to wait for a clear price action. To sum up I am bearish on the EURUSD and GBPUSD, cautious on the USDCAD and USDJPY.
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7th of December - GBPUSD
The bearish move is not an impulsive one. While prices are below 1.3460, I am looking for selling opportunities.
It must be emphasised that the SMA(50) in the 4-hour time frame is reversing, so it could soon gives us a nice short combo setup. Prices have to now initiate an impulsive move to confirm that the previous swing high is still valid.
The bearish move is not an impulsive one. While prices are below 1.3460, I am looking for selling opportunities.
It must be emphasised that the SMA(50) in the 4-hour time frame is reversing, so it could soon gives us a nice short combo setup. Prices have to now initiate an impulsive move to confirm that the previous swing high is still valid.
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7th of December - USDJPY
The Technical analyses is a bit complicated on this asset. The strong Fibonacci cluster is below at 113.43, it is on this threshold that I am looking for a selling opportunity. In this case, the upper Bollinger Band will be actin as a resistance level.
Prices are currently below the SMA(50) and the 50%retracement level. They act as a resistance zone, but no bearish impulse is initiated. A bullish combo has been activated and TP1 has been reached. In other words, no more selling opportunities on the USDJPY while prices are above the SMA(50) in the 4-hour time frame. If prices were to break below it, then we will be looking for selling opportunities with a pull back as an entry reason in the following trading sessions.
The Technical analyses is a bit complicated on this asset. The strong Fibonacci cluster is below at 113.43, it is on this threshold that I am looking for a selling opportunity. In this case, the upper Bollinger Band will be actin as a resistance level.
Prices are currently below the SMA(50) and the 50%retracement level. They act as a resistance zone, but no bearish impulse is initiated. A bullish combo has been activated and TP1 has been reached. In other words, no more selling opportunities on the USDJPY while prices are above the SMA(50) in the 4-hour time frame. If prices were to break below it, then we will be looking for selling opportunities with a pull back as an entry reason in the following trading sessions.
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7th of December - AUDUSD
Prices made one more push lower to test the low of the Andrews’ channel. Sellers’ pressure remains present and the current support might not hold the price enough to initiate a bullish trend move.
If prices were to retrace, then it would make the most sense to wait for the first bullish move in the 4-hour timeframe, and then enter the market at the end of a retracement phase. There is no trading opportunities for the immediate future.
Prices made one more push lower to test the low of the Andrews’ channel. Sellers’ pressure remains present and the current support might not hold the price enough to initiate a bullish trend move.
If prices were to retrace, then it would make the most sense to wait for the first bullish move in the 4-hour timeframe, and then enter the market at the end of a retracement phase. There is no trading opportunities for the immediate future.
