T Squared's Market Commentary

[T Squared Trading]

Further Weakness Against The Dollar Will Be Tough To Do

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Daily Commentary for October 13th, 2006

Further Weakness Against The Dollar Will Be Tough To Do

Good Thursday Evening, Friday Morning,

According to the charts, it’s going to take quite strong US Retail Sales data tomorrow to continue the Dollar strength. Consolidation has continued and data from this week including yesterday’s Beige Book was basically a non-event. Have a great weekend everyone, and look for a weekly report on Sunday evening.

Technical Indicators

Eur/Usd
.2500-.2550 has been the range the past few days. The daily chart is not very convincing for either direction. It appears that a break above .2600 will be needed to show a temporary end to the Euro weakness. Any move below .2500 will send Euro backers heading to the bathroom to get sick.

Usd/Jpy
The possible consolidation above the 119 has indeed occurred. The Bank of Japan comments tonight might help to regain some of the value the Yen has lost recently. An hourly chart is beginning to look a bit Dollar bearish, but as always, all bets are off until the US number tomorrow.

Usd/Chf
There has been about 2 days of consolidation which might mean we reached the top limits of this move by the Dollar. It looks like a top has been formed in the low .2700 range, and it’s going to take a very strong move by the Dollar to make a new high. Odds are we’re not going to have a sharp move either way, as we’ve come quite a long way from the lows, and most likely will need additional consolidation for the next defined move.

What Our Strategies Are Telling Us as of 10/12, 9:00 PM ET:

We have 10 strategies that we will report to our clients on a daily basis in regards to their respective dollar bias. Our intent is not to provide investment advice to those who read this following section. We are merely reporting the biases that our strategies are exhibiting.

Eur/Usd
$ Long Bias
Usd/Jpy
$ Neutral Bias
Usd/Chf
$ Neutral Bias

Essentially no change since Tuesday night’s report. We expect our Yen and Swiss Franc strategies to “pick a side,” after the US Retail Sales is released next tomorrow. Participation remains low, around 50%.

If you would like to receive our commentary before it is released to the public for free in PDF format, please send us your e-mail, and we will gladly include you on the subscribers list.

T2

 

[T Squared Trading]

Will The Obvious Set-Ups Come To Fruition?

Daily Commentary for October 16th, 2006

Will The Obvious Set-Ups Come To Fruition?

Good Sunday Evening, Monday Morning,

We hope everyone had a great weekend, and are well rested to make some profitable trades this upcoming week. On a technical basis, it appears almost obvious that the Dollar will continue its march upward against the other major currencies. As noted in our Eur/Usd analysis, beware of going into the week with any preconceived notions. Have a great week everyone!

Technical Indicators

Eur/Usd
On Thursday we stated that any move below .2500 will make Euro longs sick to their stomach. On Friday, this pair reached lows of .2479 but proved to be resilient and closed the trading session above .2500. It’s just a hunch, but we feel that there are enough Dollar lovers out there to drive this pair down significantly on a whim. It could be that the current levels are allowing those to “get on board,” before the train leaves the station. But then again, when a setup looks as obvious as this, usually the opposite occurs. Regardless of your decision, as always keep your risk management in place.

Usd/Jpy
The Yen continued to weaken on Friday, and all eyes are set on the key 120 level. Apparently this is a major level for traders, and a sharp move above 120 could easily lead to further significant gains. On Friday, the Bank of Japan hinted that there could be additional rate hikes by the end of this year, which should prove to be bullish for the Yen. This might not help the Yen in the near term, as the Dollar builds additional momentum. Remember, we’ve been in consolidation mode in this pair for about 3 months, so a violent move is not unheard of. Let’s watch the 120 level tonight and into the am.

Usd/Chf
This pair continues to drift up and consolidate above .2700. This is very bullish for the Dollar as we have to look at the weekly chart for the next level of resistance. The next direction will be based solely on US data this week, as the calendar is pretty bare for Swiss. There’s been a 200 pip move since the last consolidation (.2500), so it wouldn’t be surprising to see .2900 as the next stop, as the Dollar continues to strengthen.

What Our Strategies Are Telling Us as of 10/15, 7:45 PM ET:

We have 10 strategies that we will report to our clients on a daily basis in regards to their respective dollar bias. Our intent is not to provide investment advice to those who read this following section. We are merely reporting the biases that our strategies are exhibiting.

Eur/Usd
$ Neutral Bias
Usd/Jpy
$ Neutral Bias
Usd/Chf
$ Neutral Bias

We have taken our strategies “off line” for a day or so in order to perform some maintenance. This is perfectly normal, and we will provide the up to date biases on Tuesday’s report.

If you would like to receive our commentary before it is released to the public for free in PDF format, please send us your e-mail, and we will gladly include you on the subscribers list.

T2

 

[T Squared Trading]

Today's PPI Was An Appetizer For Tomorrow's CPI

Daily Commentary for October 18th, 2006

Today’s PPI Was Appetizer For Tomorrow’s CPI

Good Tuesday Evening, Wednesday Morning,

On Sunday evening our headline mentioned that the setups looked perfect for a continuation of Dollar strength, but warned that these obvious setups may not result in “obvious” results. Thus far the warning has proven true, but tomorrow mornings US data may help validate the setups if positive.

Technical Indicators

Eur/Usd
The Euro is doing it’s best to try to stay well above the all important .2500 and has been relatively successful thus far. We’re still not buying it, though. There needs to be a move above .2600 before convincing us that a bottom has been formed. A strong CPI tomorrow may provide the market with a reason to test the .2500 level again, whereas a weak number will aid in forming the support level.

Usd/Jpy
Well…this pair has done nothing but decline since the brief flirt with 120. The Dollar short smacked the Dollar longs squarely in the face! The current price is around 118.40, so that’s a nice 150 pip drop in about 2 days. This may be a bit overdone, so possibly expect a quick rise then consolidation around 118.75 or so, similar to the market movement after any rather extreme incline/decline. Look for BOJ minutes to provide little in ways of market moving news tonight.

Usd/Chf
This pair continues to hover in a +/- 50 pip range of .2700. It appears that a bit more consolidation is necessary before the next move is made. We’re a bit hesitant on the Dollar bullish side due to the fact that this pair dropped below the .2700 level and has stayed there. This could all change however after tomorrow’s US economic data is released. As always maintain your stop losses.

What Our Strategies Are Telling Us as of 10/17, 6:00 PM ET:

We have 10 strategies that we will report to our clients on a daily basis in regards to their respective dollar bias. Our intent is not to provide investment advice to those who read this following section. We are merely reporting the biases that our strategies are exhibiting.

Eur/Usd
$ Neutral Bias
Usd/Jpy
$ Short Bias
Usd/Chf
$ Long Bias

We switched about half of our strategies “back on line” Monday morning. Our Yen longs have been profitable thus far. Over the next 24-36 hours, we should have all strategies up and running again.

If you would like to receive our commentary before it is released to the public for free in PDF format, please send us your e-mail, and we will gladly include you on the subscribers list.

T2

 

[T Squared Trading]

Currency Trading…Trickier Than Ever!!!

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Daily Commentary for October 20th, 2006

Currency Trading…Trickier Than Ever!!!

Good Thursday Evening, Friday Morning,

Trading in the currency market, or trading in any market for that matter, is very tough. A perfect illustration of this is the market movement the past few days. As noted on Sunday evening, there were some really nice setups that usually result in somewhat predictable moves. Unfortunately for those traders establishing a position solely on those setups, they never came to fruition…quite the opposite actually. In reality, there was nothing wrong with establishing such a position as long as proper risk management is in place. Bad trades occur…they’re unavoidable. Have a great weekend everyone!

Technical Indicators

Eur/Usd
A rather neutral CPI number on Wednesday didn’t do much to persuade this pair to go higher or lower at the time. Today, on the other hand was a different story, as a weak US Leading Indicator data coupled with a poor Philly Fed Index caused the Euro to strengthen about 120 pips against the Buck. As noted below, the move was not enough to trigger any trades in our Euro based strategies, though. A daily chart shows this pair still looks weak, but a move above .2650 will paint a slightly different picture. Use the .2650 as near term resistance.

Usd/Jpy
The current rate is essentially the same as when we reported on Tuesday evening, .1840. There’s been about a 100 pip trading range since then, but not much has changed on a technical basis. I like the 45 degree angle of this descent for a prolonged down move. Please contact us if you need further explanation what we mean by this. Use 118 as near term support, but be careful, this pair may go lower.

Usd/Chf
I liked the little 50 pip head-fake this pair made following the CPI number yesterday. I’m sure the head-fake caused more than a few traders to get long…expecting the next leg-up of the move. Instead the market reversed and is currently in the midst of a 140 pip decline. Fortunately, our Swiss strategies were able to capitalize on this move, and are currently flat. We had about a week of consolidation prior to this Dollar weakness so it may still have some room to go down further. Look at .2550 as a near-term bottom.

What Our Strategies Are Telling Us as of 10/19, 6:00 PM ET:

We have 10 strategies that we will report to our clients on a daily basis in regards to their respective dollar bias. Our intent is not to provide investment advice to those who read this following section. We are merely reporting the biases that our strategies are exhibiting.

Eur/Usd
$ Neutral Bias
Usd/Jpy
$ Short Bias
Usd/Chf
$ Neutral Bias

Fortunately for our clients, our Swiss strategies switched bias on Wednesday and were able to make nice profits today after the large decline. Our Yen strategies also performed well in the recent Dollar decline. For some reason the Euro strength was not enough to trigger any trades in their respective strategies.

If you would like to receive our commentary before it is released to the public for free in PDF format, please send us your e-mail, and we will gladly include you on the subscribers list.

T2

 

[T Squared Trading]

Time To Trust The Strategies

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Daily Commentary for October 23rd, 2006

Time To Trust The Strategies

Good Sunday Evening, Monday Morning,

We hope everyone had a great weekend. Friday’s market movement was rather uneventful, as most of the majors consolidated after a pretty active week.
In analyzing the charts tonight, it’s very difficult to ascertain the next definitive direction. It’s time like these, that traders relying solely on systems are able to feel somewhat confident. What I mean by that, instead of sitting on the sidelines waiting for a move to present itself, they can merely let their trading strategies do their work. I’m not saying that manual trading doesn’t work...quite the opposite. Manual trading does work, it’s just not for everyone. I’ll touch more on this Tuesday evening. Have a great week, everyone.

Technical Indicators

Eur/Usd
.2650 continues to be the top of this move. We maintain that a move above this level should result in further Euro strength. Similar to the charts of all the majors, it’s very difficult to gauge the next move here. The daily charts are saying further Dollar strength, but the hourly charts are pointing to possible Dollar weakness. Let’s use .2560 as the support right now.

Usd/Jpy
118 has provided the near-term support and is currently about 60 pips north of that area at 118.60. We would expect further consolidation in the 118.25-118.75 area. The Dollar continues to be resilient in this pair, even though the charts look like the Yen wants to strengthen.

Usd/Chf
As noted in Thursday’s commentary, .2550 has proved to be the level of support thus far. Not much change in during Friday’s trading, so consolidation is expected the next day or two. Our strategies are currently net Dollar long.

What Our Strategies Are Telling Us as of 10/22, 8:30 PM ET:
We have 10 strategies that we will report to our clients on a daily basis in regards to their respective dollar bias. Our intent is not to provide investment advice to those who read this following section. We are merely reporting the biases that our strategies are exhibiting.

Eur/Usd
$ Neutral Bias
Usd/Jpy
$ Long Bias
Usd/Chf
$ Long Bias

Our Yen strategies switched biases twice on Friday, only to settle on being a Dollar lover over the weekend. Our Swiss strategies are also now net long the Dollar, as well. It will be interesting to see if the Dollar weakness from the end of last week continues the beginning part of the upcoming week…our strategies currently don’t see it that way!

If you would like to receive our commentary before it is released to the public for free in PDF format, please send us your e-mail, and we will gladly include you on the subscribers list.

T2

 

[T Squared Trading]

Tomorrow FOMC Statement May Result In Testing Of Some Important Levels

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Daily Commentary for October 25th, 2006

Tomorrow FOMC Statement May Result In Testing Of Some Important Levels

Good Tuesday Evening, Wednesday Morning,

The general consensus among traders just hours before tomorrow’s FOMC statement is that there will be no rate hike, but there should be some comments addressing the rate of inflation and the strength of the economy. This is supposed to strengthen the Dollar across the board, so everyone should get long the Dollar, sit back, book a cruise to the islands, and sip on a Margarita….right? Our advice would be to follow your trading plan, don’t just establish positions based on what you think is going to happen based on the Fed’s comments. If you do decide to make a “bet” based on the comments, be smart about it, use proper risk management, and have an idea what you’re going to do if the trade either goes your way, or doesn’t go your way. Please use good judgement!!!

Technical Indicators

Eur/Usd
Our .2560 support level mentioned in Sunday’s commentary is the current rate. This pair did get as low as .2520 before rebounding somewhat during today’s trading. Obviously, traders are pointing towards .2500 as the BIG support level, and a break below would be Armageddon for Euro lovers. Though this is a possibility, there is such a large about of support via consolidation in this level, that it’s going to take a very large effort to do so. Continue to use .2650 as support.

Usd/Jpy
This pair broke out of the consolidation for another test of 120, but fell short. Actually we’re well off the 120, currently sitting around 119.20. Our Yen strategies made some nice profits off the Dollar strength, and are currently net Yen long. We need to look at 120 as being the resistance going into tomorrow’s US news event and would be wise to use 118.75 as support. The charts still look rather Yen bullish, but market activity continues to not support this notion.

Usd/Chf
Our Swiss strategies were able to cash in on the Dollar move on Monday. Let’s see if .2750 proves to be resistance, as a break above this level could result in some significant additional Franc weakness. Let’s use .2600 as support in a rather large 150 pip trading range. Our strategies are currently neutral in bias.

What Our Strategies Are Telling Us as of 10/24, 8:30 PM ET:
We have 10 strategies that we will report to our clients on a daily basis in regards to their respective dollar bias. Our intent is not to provide investment advice to those who read this following section. We are merely reporting the biases that our strategies are exhibiting.

Eur/Usd
$ Short Bias
Usd/Jpy
$ Short Bias
Usd/Chf
$ Neutral Bias

Our Dollar long positions noted on Sunday evening proved to be winners, as we took profits in the recent Dollar strength. Even though the charts are still showing Dollar strength, our strategies are net Dollar short. It will be interesting to see if the biases stay in tact leading up to the FOMC decision tomorrow afternoon.

If you would like to receive our commentary before it is released to the public for free in PDF format, please send us your e-mail, and we will gladly include you on the subscribers list.

T2

 

[T Squared Trading]

Dollar Move Stalls, But Nice Trading Moves Exist

We hope you had a great week. Since our demo offer earlier this week, our strategies have gained roughly 500 pips…it has been a very nice week for our clients. If you’re interested in your own demo, please let us know, and we’ll forward you the information. It takes roughly 5 minutes to setup.

Daily Commentary for October 27th, 2006

Dollar Move Stalls, But Nice Trading Moves Exist

Good Thursday Evening, Friday Morning,

For Dollar lovers, today’s weakness was not very welcome, but for traders looking for extended moves either positive or negative towards the Buck…they’re pretty happy. Yes, an overall choppy market environment still exists somewhat, but the moves are well defined, and many pips can be made if you’re on the right side. 2 of our strategies have booked almost 500 pips the past 5 days, as they’re finding this current market environment to their liking.
A weak GDP is expected tomorrow, so it will be interesting to see how weak the Dollar actually is. After all, the Dollar has declined almost 150 pips in the past 2 days, so one would expect some sort of consolidation before the next move.

Technical Indicators

Eur/Usd
The .2560 support level we noted in Tuesday’s commentary was accurate, as the Euro has strengthened roughly 140 pips since that point. Our Euro long strategies are now neutral in bias, after booking nice profits in the Dollar weakness. Let’s use .2725 as the new resistance, as this pair might need to consolidate before the next move takes place.

Usd/Jpy
Our Yen strategies have been right on the money with their net long biases. They still maintain their negative Dollar sentiment, but I’m sure they’re looking to take profits with any Dollar strength as opposed to consolidation. A daily chart is showing a 118 support level, while the resistance has dropped to around 119.15.

Usd/Chf
The .2600 support level we noted on Tuesday was pierced rather easily, as this pair currently sits around .2540. The only chart that is still appearing somewhat Dollar bullish is the weekly, while the other charts have been severely hurt somewhat by today’s Dollar weakness. Picking a bottom here is somewhat difficult, but lets use .2480 as a number. Look for consolidation though…our Swiss strategies are currently neutral.

What Our Strategies Are Telling Us as of 10/26, 7:30 PM ET:
We have 10 strategies that we will report to our clients on a daily basis in regards to their respective dollar bias. Our intent is not to provide investment advice to those who read this following section. We are merely reporting the biases that our strategies are exhibiting.

Eur/Usd
$ Neutral Bias
Usd/Jpy
$ Short Bias
Usd/Chf
$ Neutral Bias

Our strategies were indeed correct with their negative Dollar bias, as they’ve booked nice profits in the recent Dollar weakness. The Yen strategies are still Dollar haters, while the other 2 majors are showing a neutral overall bias.

If you would like to receive our commentary before it is released to the public for free in PDF format, please send us your e-mail, and we will gladly include you on the subscribers list.

T2

 

[T Squared Trading]

GDP = Bad News For The Buck

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Daily Commentary for October 30th, 2006

GDP = Bad News For The Buck

Good Sunday Evening, Monday Morning,

A weak GDP made Dollar backers squeal like a pig on Friday. As you’ll see in our analysis below, you may need to revise some of your Dollar support levels as the previous levels from last week are severely being tested. Have a nice week, and thank you for your continued support.

Technical Indicators

Eur/Usd
Our .2725 resistance level was a bit off, as this pair reached highs of .2750 on Friday. However, we are now back to around that resistance again. We will revise it to around .2775, but still believe this pair might need to consolidate before moving higher. Our strategies are now showing a net Euro long bias though, so this move might not quite be done yet.

Usd/Jpy
So much for the 118 support level!!! The Yen cut through this level like the proverbial hot knife through butter. We’re currently sitting at 117.30. A daily chart is showing some nice support around 117. It will be interesting to see what it will take for some of our Yen strategies to book profits after cashing in on this now extended Dollar weakness.

Usd/Chf
The .2480 level we noted as support in the previous commentary has proved to be correct, as this pair barely pierced through this level before rebounding to its current level of .2500. There’s only been a moderate amount of consolidation in this area, so we might need to give this pair a bit more room to “breathe.” Let’s use .2450 as a new area of support, and let’s use .2560 as a near term top.

What Our Strategies Are Telling Us as of 10/29, 9:30 PM ET:
We have 10 strategies that we will report to our clients on a daily basis in regards to their respective dollar bias. Our intent is not to provide investment advice to those who read this following section. We are merely reporting the biases that our strategies are exhibiting.

Eur/Usd
$ Short Bias
Usd/Jpy
$ Short Bias
Usd/Chf
$ Neutral Bias

Our Yen strategies continue to be correct as they are cashing in from the continued Dollar weakness. Our Euro strategies are now showing a Dollar short net bias as well, no doubt as a result of the poor Dollar showing on Friday.

If you would like to receive our commentary before it is released to the public for free in PDF format, please send us your e-mail, and we will gladly include you on the subscribers list.

T2

 

[T Squared Trading]

Consumer Confidence Also Equals Bad News For The Buck

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Daily Commentary for November 1st, 2006

Consumer Confidence Also Equals Bad News For The Buck

Good Tuesday Evening, Wednesday Morning,

Tuesday marked another hit for the Buck as a weak Consumer Confidence number further shook the Dollar Tree. Tomorrow’s ADP report will shed some light on how bad/good Friday’s Non-Farm Payroll’s will be. One would have to think there needs to be some sort of Dollar rally in the next day or so, after a few days of poor Dollar performance. Our strategies are still Dollar-haters, so perhaps they don’t share the same sentiment as us.

Technical Indicators

Eur/Usd
We’ve been dead accurate in our .2775 resistance level for the time being. According to a daily chart there should be some support in the .2700 area, so perhaps a tight trading range might exist leading into Friday. Our strategies are still showing a net Euro long bias, following some “flip-flopping” the past 24 hours due to the choppy market activity.

Usd/Jpy
Our Yen strategies finally took profits early this morning after making about 160 pips in the recent Dollar weakness. It’s interesting to see that they’ve actually re-established a net Dollar short position. 117 still is the support level, even though this pair has moved below this area for the time being. It will need to stay under to prove to us that this pair will indeed go lower. Use 117.50 as near term resistance.

Usd/Chf
This pair is currently situated about 30 pips below our support level of .2450. We’ve had a 300 pip move since Oct. 24, so one would have to guess that a consolidation may need to occur. On the other hand, there’s been unusual movement the last month, as opposed to the last 6 months of stagnation. We’ll keep .2450 as the support. Our Swiss strategies have finally made up their mind it’s time to enter the market Dollar long.

What Our Strategies Are Telling Us as of 10/31, 8:00 PM ET:
We have 10 strategies that we will report to our clients on a daily basis in regards to their respective dollar bias. Our intent is not to provide investment advice to those who read this following section. We are merely reporting the biases that our strategies are exhibiting.

Eur/Usd
$ Short Bias
Usd/Jpy
$ Short Bias
Usd/Chf
$ Long Bias


If you would like to receive our commentary before it is released to the public for free in PDF format, please send us your e-mail, and we will gladly include you on the subscribers list.

T2

 

[T Squared Trading]

Consolidation Occurs As We Hold Our Collective Breaths Ahead Of NFP

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Daily Commentary for November 3rd, 2006

Consolidation Occurs As We Hold Our Collective Breaths Ahead Of NFP

Good Thursday Evening, Friday Morning,

The $64,000 question is whether the tight consolidation from the last few days is the market regrouping for another bout of Dollar weakness or rather traders accumulating Dollar long positions for a reversal. As a whole, the charts are showing that a reversal might be in order after quite an extensive Dollar move south. The US Non Farm Payrolls tomorrow are supposed to come in around 123K. Word is anything below 100K is going to result in additional Dollar bloodshed. We have a sneaking suspicion that if the number is not weak, it will most likely be a non-event. We would be very surprised with an upside surprise.

Technical Indicators

Eur/Usd
Our Euro strategies have been flat since Wednesday due to the lack of movement. The .2775 resistance level we pointed out has withstood repeated attempts to breach said level. Consolidation is occurring at this area though, which is worrisome for those holding shorts from this area. On both a daily an hourly chart it appears that the Euro might have some upward movement left. As we’ve referred to in past commentaries, use the current level as both resistance and support!

Usd/Jpy
Similar to our analysis of most of our majors this evening, please refer to our analysis from Tuesday night, as we’ve been correct in our support and resistance levels…and we maintain them. Use the 117-117.50 trading range for the time being. Our strategies are net Yen long.

Usd/Chf
Please refer to our commentary from Tuesday, as nothing has really changed from a technical standpoint. Our Swiss short strategy was stopped out by the “bull crap” move to .2400. Maintain the .2450 support level we’ve noted most of this week.

What Our Strategies Are Telling Us as of 11/2, 8:30 PM ET:
We have 10 strategies that we will report to our clients on a daily basis in regards to their respective dollar bias. Our intent is not to provide investment advice to those who read this following section. We are merely reporting the biases that our strategies are exhibiting.

Eur/Usd
$ Neutral Bias
Usd/Jpy
$ Short Bias
Usd/Chf
$ Neutral Bias


If you would like to receive our commentary before it is released to the public for free in PDF format, please send us your e-mail, and we will gladly include you on the subscribers list.

T2

 

[T Squared Trading]

Dollar Gets Some Much Needed Good News From Revised US Data

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Daily Commentary for November 6th, 2006

Dollar Gets Some Much Needed Good News From Revised US Data

Good Sunday Evening, Monday Morning,

October’s Non-Farm Payroll number came in below the crucial 100K print, but the key was the 97K upward revision in September’s report. This was greeted with a Dollar rally of nearly 100 pips in most of the majors. The hours after the initial move were not very impressive though, as some of the pairs either continued sideways or drifted lower. The elections on Tuesday will most likely have an impact on the Dollar’s next direction. Trader’s say that a unanimous Republican win will be Dollar positive and Democrat win will be Dollar negative.

Technical Indicators

Eur/Usd
The .2775 resistance area we noted on a few occasions last week proved to be bull-strong, as this pair couldn’t breach this level prior to the number. Apparently the consolidation was a precursor to the Dollar strength rather than the expected Euro strength. A few of our Euro strategies made a quick profit in the Euro weakness. Let’s use Friday’s low of .2680 as near-term support. Our strategies are currently flat.

Usd/Jpy
Our strategies quickly realized their erroneous way following the Dollar positive data. If you recall, our strategies were net Long the Yen prior to the number. We’re going to use 117.50 as a rather tight support, as this pair might need to consolidate above this area to show continued near-term strength. No level of resistance is worth noting tonight.

Usd/Chf
Similar to the other 3 majors we analyze, the Dollar increased in value over the Swiss Franc on Friday, as well. The .2450 support level stood firm prior to the number, before rising up to approximately .2550. It’s tough to say where the resistance is according to various charts. Since our Swiss strategies are currently net Dollar short, we’ll say the .2575 can be used as resistance and .2475 as support.

What Our Strategies Are Telling Us as of 11/5, 8:30 PM ET:
We have 10 strategies that we will report to our clients on a daily basis in regards to their respective dollar bias. Our intent is not to provide investment advice to those who read this following section. We are merely reporting the biases that our strategies are exhibiting.

Eur/Usd
$ Neutral Bias
Usd/Jpy
$ Long Bias
Usd/Chf
$ Short Bias


If you would like to receive our commentary before it is released to the public for free in PDF format, please send us your e-mail, and we will gladly include you on the subscribers list.

T2

 

[T Squared Trading]

How Will The US Mid-Term Election Affect The Buck?

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Daily Commentary for November 8th, 2006

How Will The US Mid-Term Election Affect The Buck?

Good Tuesday Evening, Wednesday Morning,

As of writing this, we’re about 4 hours away from finding out a majority of the results from today’s US election. As noted in Sunday’s commentary, the belief is that the only way the Dollar will fall is if the Democrats gain control of the Congress. The reason for this is that Traders feel that a Democrat controlled Congress will result in capital being sent out of the US until long-term risks are more clearly identified. I find it hard to believe that it will be a quick “knee jerk” reaction but rather could be the beginning of a longer term trend either way.

Technical Indicators

Eur/Usd
Coincidentally enough, our strategies cashed in on the breach of the .2275 resistance level we have noted the past few commentaries to cash in on the quick move. Our Euro strategies are currently flat, but look to the .2825 as resistance and .2725 as support. A daily chart is tough to gauge right now in terms of the next move, so possibly as a result our strategies are flat.

Usd/Jpy
The Yen strategies flip flopped a few times in the past 48 hours as the erratic Yen movement triggered a few profitable trades. The 117.50 support level is holding strong, and a daily chart is showing that consolidation might be in the cards the next few days. Use 117.50-118.25 as a near term trading range. Our Yen strategies are currently Dollar long.

Usd/Chf
Our short Swiss strategies were stopped out almost exactly at the top of the range on Sunday night before the recent descent. Unfortunately as frustrating as that is, it’s a part of trading that is unavoidable. Our Franc strategies are currently sitting on the sidelines, as this pair is sitting comfortably above the support level of .2475. Let’s lower the support level to .2450 again, as this pair looks like it may be weakening again.

What Our Strategies Are Telling Us as of 11/7, 5:45 PM ET:
We have 10 strategies that we will report to our clients on a daily basis in regards to their respective dollar bias. Our intent is not to provide investment advice to those who read this following section. We are merely reporting the biases that our strategies are exhibiting.

Eur/Usd
$ Neutral Bias
Usd/Jpy
$ Long Bias
Usd/Chf
$ Neutral Bias


If you would like to receive our commentary before it is released to the public for free in PDF format, please send us your e-mail, and we will gladly include you on the subscribers list.

T2

 

[T Squared Trading]

Dollar Back Down To Key Support Levels

If you’re interested in your own demo, please let us know, and we’ll forward you the information.

Daily Commentary for November 10th, 2006

Dollar Back Down To Key Support Levels

Good Thursday Evening, Friday Morning,

On Tuesday we noted that traders felt if Democrats wound up controlling the Congress, we would most likely see Dollar deterioration. The fact that this did indeed occur along with weak September trade balance data led to additional Dollar weakness. As if this news wasn’t bearish enough for the Buckeroo, word out of China is that they will possibly reverse diversify out of the Dollar. China’s reserves are approximately 1 Trillion Dollars!!!
Have a safe weekend everyone, and thank you for being such loyal readers of our commentary.

Technical Indicators

Eur/Usd
This pair has breached our 1.2825 resistance level and looks hell-bent on reaching 1.2900 in the very near future. It looks like the Euro is starting to break out of about a week long consolidation. As we always note, most of the large moves usually occur after a period of consolidation, this should be no different. On a longer-term analysis, we’ve been in a 400 pip trading range since May. Just a hunch but we feel that if the Euro can approach 1.3000 again before the end of the year, it may be time to propel this pair into uncharted territory..

Usd/Jpy
Similar to earlier this week, our Yen strategies have switched biases a couple times. Our Yen strategies are a bit longer in terms of hold times, but the volatile direction changing is even “shaking” them out of their positions. The 117.50-118.25 trading level has held somewhat true in the past 48 hours. It’s necessary to lower this level to around 117.25 though. Use 118 as resistance. Our Yen strategies are now flat.

Usd/Chf
On Tuesday we noted that this pair looked like it was weakening again (meaning Dollar’s value decreasing), and that has occurred in the past 48 hours. Our Swiss strategies haven’t been faring to well in terms of profitable trades, but hopefully that will change next week, as the Franc seems to be building some momentum. Let’s use an area near the October low of .2400 as support. Our support levels have not been very accurate this week, as this pair has disappointed Dollar longs. Our Swiss strategies are currently flat.

What Our Strategies Are Telling Us as of 11/9, 8:30 PM ET:
We have 10 strategies that we will report to our clients on a daily basis in regards to their respective dollar bias. Our intent is not to provide investment advice to those who read this following section. We are merely reporting the biases that our strategies are exhibiting.

Eur/Usd
$ Short Bias
Usd/Jpy
$ Neutral Bias
Usd/Chf
$ Neutral Bias

If you would like to receive our commentary before it is released to the public for free in PDF format, please send us your e-mail, and we will gladly include you on the subscribers list.

T2

 

[T Squared Trading]

Dollar Back Down To Key Support Levels

If you’re interested in your own demo, please let us know, and we’ll forward you the information.

Daily Commentary for November 13th, 2006

Dollar Back Down To Key Support Levels

Good Sunday Evening, Monday Morning,

We hope everyone had a great weekend. Our strategies had another nice day on Friday, to cap off a nice 3 week run. Our strategies have been able to identify overall trends and take advantage of both short and longer term moves as of late. Let’s hope for our client’s sake that we continue to have good fortune. Have a great week everyone.

Technical Indicators

Eur/Usd
Our .2900 resistance level was touched briefly on Sunday as the Euro continued to strengthen against the Dollar. Our G5 Euro had a nice trade opened and closed on Friday capitalizing on the continued Dollar weakness. We’re thinking that consolidation might be occurring soon, as we’re confident that there are quite a few traders out there using .2900 for resistance as well. Let’s use the .2800-.2900 as your top and bottom for the beginning of this week.

Usd/Jpy
Our 117.25 support level is currently being tested, as our Yen strategies are now showing a net Dollar short bias. On Friday, the Bank of Japan Governor Fukui made comments alluding to the fact that there will be at least one additional rate hikes this year. This week’s gross domestic product (GDP) report will be key, as bullish data will likely give the Yen enough fuel to propel it to new highs later this year.

Usd/Chf
So much for the October low of .2400 being support as this pair has sustained a rate below this level quite easily. The weekly chart is providing us with the next and key level of support consolidation, .2300. It’s hard to believe this angle of decline will continue, but trying to pick a bottom here might prove to be a risky proposition. Use .2450 as resistance. This is a tough pair to predict right now. We’ll allow our strategies to provide guidance.

What Our Strategies Are Telling Us as of 11/12, 8:45 PM ET:
We have 10 strategies that we will report to our clients on a daily basis in regards to their respective dollar bias. Our intent is not to provide investment advice to those who read this following section. We are merely reporting the biases that our strategies are exhibiting.

Eur/Usd
$ Neutral Bias
Usd/Jpy
$ Short Bias
Usd/Chf
$ Neutral Bias

If you would like to receive our commentary before it is released to the public for free in PDF format, please send us your e-mail, and we will gladly include you on the subscribers list.

T2

 

[T Squared Trading]

Monthly Commentary & Demo

We'd like to thank everyone for their continued interest in T2 Trading. We are no longer offering daily/weekly commentary. In lieu of this, we are going to putting out a monthly commentary. We are still allowing 30-day demo of 4 of our proprietary strategies. In addition, look for a brand new T2 website during the month of December.

Thank You,
T2

 

[T Squared Trading]

Update

Hi All,

I just wanted to drop by to remind everyone we're still around, even though we've limited our postings on this board to our monthly commentary.

In our November 10th commentary we noted, "....Just a hunch but we feel that if the Euro can approach 1.3000 again before the end of the year, it may be time to propel this pair into uncharted territory...."

It's surprising to see this occurred so soon, but as we have noted throughout, the largest and most violent moves usually occur after a long period of consolidation. Looking at the big picture, all of the majors were in about a 6 month consolidation, and it was a matter of time before this breakout occcurred.

We've also noted, almost excessively, that risk management is the key in any system. The market activity that has occurred in the past 2 weeks, if not managed correctly, will totally decimate accounts. It's also times like this when correlated strategies in the wrong direction will lead to catastrophic losses. Please remember this next time you have a position that is going against you, and you think "it can't possibly go any higher/lower." It always can!!!

Please drop me a line if you're interested in a demo account. We're in the midst of a 550+ pip profit in our Cable model in our current demo.

All the best,

T2

 

[T Squared Trading]

What happened to Depth Trade's Post?

What a dissapointment!!! I just received an email from trade2win detailing the contents of Depth Trade's post on my thread, and I visit the site and the post is gone!!! What happened to it???

I had a "witty" response for each point you brought up my friend...plus I was thrilled that someone actually contributed to this one-sided forum.

Later,
T2

 

[T Squared Trading]

BTW, our strategies finally closed the cable trade on Friday.

Good luck to those still short the buck. Our systems have conflicting views right now.

Tomorrow should be interesting, though.

It's funny how Greenspan is still trying to affect the movement of the Dollar, even though he's long gone.

T2