Profi-forex's Forex Commentary

[profi-forex]

Forex Commentary 20.09.2004

TODAY DATA: (20.09.2004)

JPY

MARKET IS CLOSE TODAY

GBP

04:30am - M4 Money Supply m/m prev. 1.0% for. 0.6%

04:30am - M4 Money Supply y/y prev. 8.8% for. 9.3%

04:30am - M4 SterlingLending (BP) prev. 15.2 for. 10.00

04:30am - CML, BBA & BSA Mortgage Lending Figures

04:30am - Public Finances prev. -6.80 for. 3.6

04:30am - Public Sector Net Borrowing prev. -1.0 for. 5.0

CAD

08:30am - Wholesale Sales prev. 0.6% for. 0.5%

EUR

12:00am - ECB Trichet and Weber Speak

12:30am - ECB Chief Economist Issing Speaks - The Euro

USD

01:00pm - NAHB Housing Market Index prev. 71 for. 70

01:00pm - US Treasury Secretary Snow Speaks at Natl Press Club

NZD

07:45pm - Visitor Arrivals prev. -0.2%



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20.09.2004 (05:39am US TIME)


USD/JPY (CURRENT LEVEL 109,82) - WE STILL HAVE RANGE: 109,00 - 110,20. IT SEEMS LIKE TUESDAY`S FED DECISION ABOUT RISE RATE COULD HELP BULLS IN BREAKUP FROM CONSOLIDATION. WATCH MARKET CAREFULLY.

EUR/USD (CURRENT LEVEL 1,2153) - THE FIRST SIGNS OF WEAKEN EUR WE HAD ON FRIDAY. THE PROOF WAS CLOSED BELOW 1,2185. THE CLOSE TODAY BELOW 1,2155 COULD SUGGEST ATTACK AT SUPPORT AT 1,200 REGION.

USD/CHF (CURRENT LEVEL 1,2718) - COURSE STILL STAY ABOVE 1,2640 WHAT MEAN THAT AVERAGE ON THIS MARKET STILL HAVE BULLS. IT SEEMS LIKE FED DECISION ABOUT RISE RATE COULD ONLY HELP THEM. WATCH REGIONS: 1,2780 AND 1,2840

GBP/USD (CURRENT LEVEL 1,7864) - LAST WEEK`S BETTER THAN EXPECTED UK DATA POSTPONED TET 1,7550 REGION BUT ATTACK ON THIS REGION SEEMS TO BE ONLY THE MATTER OF TIME.

 

[profi-forex]

Forex Commentary 22.09.2004

TODAY DATA: (22.09.2004)

GBP

04:30am - Bank of England minutes

EUR

04:30am - ECB President Trichet Testimony

05:00am - Industrial New Orders y/y prev. 10.9% for. 9.9%

05:00am - Industrial New Orders SA m/m prev. -6.5% for. 2.0%

05:00am - Euro-Zone Trade Balance prev. 8710M for. 11000M

USD

08:00am - MBA Mortgage Applications prev. -2.0%

NZD

06:45am - Current Account Balance (2Q) prev. 0.174BK for. -1.256B

CHF

M0 Money Supply y/y prev. 2.2%




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22.09.2004 (05:17am US TIME)


USD/JPY (CURRENT LEVEL 110,10) - WE STILL HAVE RANGE: 109,00 - 110,20. YESTERDAY`S FED DECISION ABOUT ROSE RATE COULD TODAY HELP USD IN BREAK-UP FROM COSOLIDATION. THE NEAREST RESISATCNES : 110,40 AND 110,70, BREAKINGTHROUGH THIS REGIONSWILL OPEN THE WAY TO RISE TOWARDS 112,00 REGION. IF WE DON`T BREAK WE COULD TEST LOWER BAND CONSOLIDATION.

EUR/USD (CURRENT LEVEL 1,2297) - YESTERDAY CLOSED ABOVE 1,2300 SUUGEST POSIBILITY TO RISES TOWARDS 1,2500. THE NEAREST RESISTANCE 1,2350 AND 1,2390.

USD/CHF (CURRENT LEVEL 1,2574) - BREAKINGTHROUGH SUPPORT AT 1,2630 REGION WEAKED USD BY ABOVE 100 PIPS. NOW WE HAVE BOUNCE TO BROKEN SUPPORT, WE THINK THAT USD WILL FALL TOWARDS 1,2460 AND EVEN TOWARDS 1,2370.

GBP/USD (CURRENT LEVEL 1,7936) - SUPPORTS: 1,7930 AND 1,7880. RESISTACNE 1,8015/30. NEXT DIRECTION DEPEND ON BREAKING BEYOND THIS REGIONS.

 

[profi-forex]

Forex Commentary 28.09.2004

TODAY DATA: (28.09.2004)

GBP

04:30am - Total Business Investment q/q prev. 1,9%/b>

04:30am - Total Business Investment y/y prev. 7,2%/b>

USD

10:00am - Consumer Confidence prev. 98,2 for. 100

07:30pm - Fed`s Bies speaks on accounting challenges

JPY

07:50pm - Large Retailers` Sales prev. -1,5% for. -2,6%

07:50pm - Retail Trade y/y prev. 0,8% for. -1,2%

07:50pm - Retail Trade m/m prev. 0,7% for. 0,2%




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28.09.2004 (05:27am US TIME)


USD/JPY (CURRENT LEVEL 111,48) - AS WE EXPECTED YESTERDAY BULLS TODAY TESTED 111,70 REGION, FROM THIS LEVEL WE COULD BE WITNESSES CORRECTION TOWARDS 111,00/30. NEXT TARGET SHOULD BE 112,40/50 AND LATER EVEN 114,80/115,00 .

EUR/USD (CURRENT LEVEL 1,2305) - WE STILL STAY IN CONSOLIDATION 1,2200 - 1,2350. OUR PROPOSE IS WATCHING THIS MARKET CAREFULLY AT THIS MOMENT.

USD/CHF (CURRENT LEVEL 1,2608) - YESTERDAY BULLS COULDN`T BREAK 1,2650/60 THATS WHY COURSE FALL BELOW 1,2600 FINDING SUPPORT AT 1,2570/80 REGION. WATCH MARKET CAREFULLY.

GBP/USD (CURRENT LEVEL 1,8127) - AS WE EXPECTED YESTERDAY GBP AFTER BREAKING DOWN TREND LINE TESTED TODAY 1,8130 REGION. BREAKINGTHROUGH THIS REGION WILL OPEN THE WAY TOWARDS 1,8150/80.

 

[profi-forex]

Forex Commentary 29.09.2004

TODAY DATA: (29.09.2004) (US TIME)

GBP

04:30am - GDP q/q prev. 0,7% for. 0.9%

04:30am - GDP y/y prev. 3,4% for. 3,7%

04:30am - Index of Distribution 3m/3m prev. 0,9%

04:30am - Index of Distribution 3m/y prev. 5,3%

04:30am - Current Account prev. -5,3B for. -5,5B

04:30am - M4 Money Supply m/m prev. 1,0%

04:30am - M4 Money Supply y/y prev. 8,8%

04:30am - M4 Sterling Lending prev. 15,2B

04:30am - Net Consumer Credit prev. 1,8B for. 1,9B

04:30am - Net Lending Sec. on Dwellings prev. 8,6B for. 8,0B

05:30am - GfK Consumer Confidence Survey prev. -5

06:00am - CBI Distributive Trades Report

CHF

05:30am - KOF Swiss Leading Indicator prev. 0,98 for. 1

EUR

06:30am - 13-City CPI (NIC w/tobac) m/m prev. 0,2% for. 0,2%

06:30am - 13-City CPI (NIC w/tobac) y/y prev. 2,3% for. 2,3%

USD

07:00am - MBA Mortgage Applications prev. 1,8%

08:30am - GDP Annualized prev. 2,8% for. 3,0%

08:30am - Personal Consumption prev. 1,6%

08:30am - GDP Price Deflator prev. 3,2% for. 3,2%

CAD

08:30am - Industrial Product Price m/m prev. -0,4% for. 0,3%

08:30am - Raw Materials Price Index m/m prev. 0,9% for. 2,0%

NZD

09:00am - NBNZ Business Confidence prev. 14,9%

06:45pm - Building Permits prev. -35,0%

JPY

07:50pm - Industrial Production m/m prev. 0,0% for. 0,5%

07:50pm - Industrial Production y/y prev. 5,9% for. 8,8%




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29.09.2004 (02:33am US TIME)


USD/JPY (CURRENT LEVEL 111,04) - TODAY MORNING CORRECTION REACHED 110,90/111,00. NEXT STRONG SUPPORT IS 110,60/80. IN THIS REGION SHOULD FIND NEW BUYERS USD. TRADERS ARE CONVICTED THAT HIGH BRENT PRICES WILL HAVE NEGATIVE INFLUENCE AT DATA IN JAPAN IN THIS WEEK.

EUR/USD (CURRENT LEVEL 1,2315) - BULLS STILL COULDN`T BREAK RESISTANCE AT 1,2350/60. THE LONGER RESISTANCE ISN`T BREAK THE LARGER PROBABILITY BIG CORRECTION AND FALL BELOW 1,2200.

USD/CHF (CURRENT LEVEL 1,2594) - WE STILL HAVE RANGE: 1,2550 - 1,2650. NEXT DIRECTION DEPEND ON BREAKING THIS REGION.

GBP/USD (CURRENT LEVEL 1,8096) - YESTRERDAY THIS PAIR TESTED 1,8150 REGION. IN THIS MOMENT FROM THIS REGION WE ARE WATCHING CORRECTION. THE NEAREST SUPPORT AT 1,8060/70. IF THIS SUPPORT WILL HOLD, WE CAN`T RULLED OUT RISES TOWARDS 1,8200 REGION. BREAKTHROUGH ABOVE-MENTIONED SUPPORT COULD CAUSE BACK TO 1,800 REGION. BUT TODAY`S DATA FROM UK, WHICH COULD BE BETTER THAN EXPECTED, SHOULD HELP BULLS TO TEST 1,8200 REGION.

 

[profi-forex]

Forex Commentary 04.10.2004

TODAY DATA: (04.10.2004) (US TIME)

GBP

04:30am - CIPS Construction Industry PMI prev. 55,8

04:30am - M0 Money Supply m/m prev. 0,1% for. 0,63%

04:30am - M0 Money Supply y/y prev. 5,1% for. 5,5%

EUR

05:00am - Euro-Zone PPI m/m prev. 0,4% for. 0,4%

05:00am - Euro-Zone PPI y/y prev. 2,8% for. 3,0%

05:00am - Euro-Zone Retail Trade m/m prev. 0,4% for. 0,1%

05:00am - Euro-Zone Retail Trade y/y prev. 1,1% for. 1,8%

05:20am - ECB Vari. Rate Refinance Auct. prev. 2,0%

USD

08:00am - US Fed`s Santomero speaks on Monetary Policy

08:30am - US Fed`s Bernanke speaks on cross-border banking

10:00am - Ractory Orders prev. 1,3% for. 0,1%

10:30am - US Fed`s Poole talks at Lincoln University

11:00am - US Fed`s Bies speaks on international fin risks

11:00am - US Fed`s Bies speaks about risk management






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04.10.2004 (07:58am US TIME)


USD/JPY (CURRENT LEVEL 110,99) - G7 MEETING ON WEEKEND HAD POSITIVE INFLUENCE ON USD, WHICH NOW IS TESTING 111,000 REGION. TEST 111,50 REGION COULD HAVE DECIDING INFLUENCE ON NEXT DIRECTION. WE CAN`T RULLED OUT BACKUP TOWARDS 110,00 REGION.

EUR/USD (CURRENT LEVEL 1,2305) - FRIDAY`S CLOSED ABOVE 1,2400 REGION SUGGESTED POSIBITY TO MORE RISES AND TEST 1,2500 REGION. BUT ON JAPANESE SESION BEARS TAKE CONTROL ON MARKET BREAKING SUPPORTS AT 1,2380, 1,2340/50 AND 1,2315/00. WATCH 1,2280/60 REGION.

USD/CHF (CURRENT LEVEL 1,2616) - UNEXPECTLY WE SAW TODAY RISES TOWARS 1,2600 REGION, WHICH CAUSED THAT BULLS TAKE INITIATIVE. TODAY`S CLOSE NEAR THIS REGION GIVE US POSIBILITY TO TEST 1,2650 AND NEXT 1,2700 REGIONS.

GBP/USD (CURRENT LEVEL 1,7974) - AFTER BREAKINGTHROUGH SUPPORT AT 1,7925 WE TESTED NEXT AT 1,7850 REGION. IT SEEMS LIKE NEXT BEARS` TARGET WILL BE 1,7800 REGION.

 

[profi-forex]

Forex Commentary 05.10.2004

TODAY DATA: (05.10.2004) (US TIME)

EUR

04:00am - PMI services prev. 54,5 for. 54,4

05:00am - Euro-Zone Unemployment Rate prev. 9,0% for. 9,0%

GBP

04:30am - Official Reserves prev. $416,0M

04:30am - PMI services prev. 56,9 for. 56,5

06:00am - BRC Shop Price Index m/m prev. 0,07%

06:00am - BRC Shop Price Index y/y prev. 0,63%

USD

10:00am - ISM Non-Manufacturing prev. 58,2 for. 59,0

10:30am - US Fed`s Greenspan speaks on banking in NY

01:00pm - US Fed`s McTeer speaks on US econ in Austin

06:30pm - ABC Consumer Confidence prev. -9,0

NZD

05:45pm - Trade Balance (Revised)

AUD

07:30pm - RBA Cash Target prev. 5,25% for. 5,25%



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05.10.2004 (01:30am US TIME)


USD/JPY (CURRENT LEVEL 110,88) - YESTERDAY MAX WAS AT 111,20 REGION. TODAY WE STILL WAIT FOR TEST 11,50/70 REGION, SUPPORT IS 110,50/70.

EUR/USD (CURRENT LEVEL 1,2270) - EUR FOUND SUPPORT AT 1,2250/70, BREAKTHROUGH THIS SUPPORT WILL OPEN THE WAY TOWARDS 1,2200 AND EVEN 1,2130. BUT WE CAN`T RULLED OUT BOUNCE TOWARDS 1,2300/30.

USD/CHF (CURRENT LEVEL 1,2555) - YESTERDAY BULLS BREAK RESISTANCE AT 1,2650 WITH MAX AT 1,2680. SUPPORTS: 1,2640/50 , 1,2620 AND 1,2590. WE CAN`T RULLED OUT TEST 1,2720/40 ERGION.

GBP/USD (CURRENT LEVEL 1,7854) - GBP FOUND SUPPORT AT 1,7820, BREAKTHROUGH THIS SUPPORT WILL OPEN THE WAY TO FALLS TOWARDS 1,7750 AND 1,7700. IN LONG TERM WE CAN`T RULLED OUT FALL TOWARDS 1,7450. THE NEAREST RESISTANCE 1,7950.

 

[profi-forex]

Forex Commentary 06.10.2004

TODAY DATA: (06.10.2004) (US TIME)

EUR

04:00 - Bloomberg Eurozone Retail PMI prev. 49,7

11:00 - ECB Weekly Fin. Statement - Balance prev. 885,81B

11:00 - ECB Weekly Currency Reserves prev. 171,3B

GBP

Bank of Englang`s Monetary Policy Committee Meets

04:30am - Industrial Production m/m prev. -0,3% for. 0,3%

04:30am - Industrial Production y/y prev. 0,1% for. 1,2%

04:30am - Manufacturing Production m/m prev. -0,2% for. 0,3%

04:30am - Manufacturing Production y/y prev. 0,9% for. 1,6%

08:30am - NIESR GDP Estimate prev. 0,7%

USD

07:00am - MBA Mortgage Applications prev. 4,9%

12:00am - US Fed`s Ferguson speaks on personal savings rate

01:00pm - US Fed`s Poole speaks to executives in Missouri

CAD

08:30am - Building Permits prev. -11,4% for. 2,0%

10:00am - Ivey Purchasing Managers Index prev. 64,6 przewid. 62

JPY

07:50pm - Official Reserve Assets prev. $828,0B



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06.10.2004 (02:16am US TIME)


USD/JPY (CURRENT LEVEL 111,10) - AS WE EXPECT YESTERDAY THIS PAIR TESTED 111,40 REGION. NEXT BULLS` TARGET SHOULD BE 111,70 AND EVEN 112,00 REGION, IN THIS SCENARIO COULD HELP RISES BRENT PRICES. THE NEAREST SUPPORT AT 110,80/90.

EUR/USD (CURRENT LEVEL 1,2314) - AS WE EXPECT WE WERE WITNESSES BOUNCE TOWARDS 1,2330. UNTIL EUR DON`T BREAK ABOVE THIS REGION WE COULD TALK ABOUT MONDAY`S FALL CORRECTION. SUPPORT AT 1,2250/60, BREAKTHROUGH THIS SUPPORT WILL OPEN THE WAY TOWARDS 1,2200 REGION.

USD/CHF (CURRENT LEVEL 1,2617) - SUPPORT AT 1,2575, RESISTANCE AT 1,2630. THE CLOSE ABOVE THIS REGION SHOULD PUSH USD TOWARDS 1,2680 - 1,2720.

GBP/USD (CURRENT LEVEL 1,7837) - BULLS HOLD SUPPORT AT 1,7800/20. IF WE COULD SEE RISES ON THIS PAIR BULLS SHOULD BREAK 1,7860/90 REGION. TODAY WE EXPECT FALLS TOWARDS 1,7750 - 1,7700.

 

[profi-forex]

Forex Commentary 07.10.2004

TODAY DATA: (07.10.2004) (US TIME)

JPY

01:00am - Leading Economic Index prev. 60,0% for. 72,2%

01:00am - Coincident Index prev. 80,0% for. 50,0%

GBP

07:00am - BOE Rate Decision prev. 4,75% for. 4,75%

EUR

07:45am - ECB Rate Decision prev. 2,0% for. 2,0%

USD

08:00am - US Fed`s Pianalto speaks on economic outlook

08:30am - Initial Jobless Claims prev. 369K for. 353K

08:30am - Continuing Claims prev. 2873K

09:30am - US Fed`s Ferguson speaks at Cato Institute

12:00am - US Fed`s Guynn - Payments in Americas Conf.

01:00pm - US Fed`s Bernanke - Central Bank Communication

02:30pm - Greenspan opening remarks at St. Louis Conf.

03:00pm - Consumer Credit prev. $10,9B for. $5,9B

04:30pm - US Fed`s Mc Teer speaks on US econ in NY



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07.10.2004 (04:45am US TIME)


USD/JPY (CURRENT LEVEL 111,25) - YESTERDAY THIS PAIR COULDN`T CLOSE ABOVE 111,40, THATS WHY WE COULD BE WITNESSES CORRECTION TOWARDS 110,80. PROBABLY TOMMOROW AFTER DATA FROM USA (NFP) WE WOULD HAVE RELUTS.

EUR/USD (CURRENT LEVEL 1,2277) - YERTERDAY`S FALSE BROKE 1,2260 WHAT HELPED EUR IN BACK-UP TO 1,2320. UNTIL YESTERDAY`S DATA FROM USA (NFP) COUSE SHOULD STAY IN RANGE: 1,2320 - 1,2240.

USD/CHF (CURRENT LEVEL 1,2647) - AS WE EXPECT YESTERDAY WE TESTED 1,2680. FROM THIS REGION WE HAD CORRECTION TO 1,2630 AND EVEN 1,2600 REGION.

GBP/USD (CURRENT LEVEL 1,7777) - YESTERDAY BULLS COULDN`T HOLD 1,7815 REGION AND WE TESTED 1,7750. AFTER THIS WE SAW VERY FAST BOUNCE AND COURSE BACK TO BROKEN SUPPORT. TODAY WE DON`T EXLUDE TEST 1,7700 REGION.

 

[profi-forex]

Forex Commentary 11.10.2004

TODAY`s DATA: (11.10.2004) (US TIME)

JPY - MARKET IS CLOSE TODAY

CAD - MARKET IS CLOSE TODAY

USD - MARKET IS CLOSE TODAY

GBP

04:30am - PPI Input s.a m/m prev. 1,6% for. 0,5%

04:30am - PPI Input s.a y/y prev. 4,8% for. 6,2%

04:30am - PPI Output n.s.a. m/m prev. 0,2% for. 0,2%

04:30am - PPI Output n.s.a. y/y prev. 2,6% for. 2,8%

04:30am - PPI Output s.a. (ex. FBTP) y/y prev. 2,1% for. 2,0%

04:30am - Visible Trade Balance prev. -5159.0 for. -5100.0

04:30am - Trade Balance Non EU25 prev. -2720M for. -2625M

04:30am - ODPM UK House Prices y/y prev. 14,3% for. -13,2%

01:00pm - BRC Reatil Sales Monitor prev. 0,6%



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11.10.2004 (04:14am US TIME)


USD/JPY (CURRENT LEVEL 109,30) - AFTER WORST THAN EXPECTED NFP DATA USD/JPY BROKEN SUPPORT AT 109,70/80 AND TESTED 109,30. NOW BULLS TRYING HOLD ABOVE 109,00. BREAK 109,00 WILL OPEN THE WAY TO TEST 108,75 AND THERE WE EXPECT LITTLE BOJ INTERVENTION.

EUR/USD (CURRENT LEVEL 1,2402) - FRIDAY\'S CLOSE ABOVE 1,24 LEVEL SUGGEST POSSIBLY ATTACK 1,2440/60 REGION. SUPPORT AT 1,2380 IF WE BREAK THIS REGION WE EXPECT FALL TOWARDS 1,2200.

USD/CHF (CURRENT LEVEL 1,2508) - RESIST. AT 1,2515/35. WE EXPECT FALL TOWARDS 1,2370 IN A FEW DAYS.

GBP/USD (CURRENT LEVEL 1,7945) - SUPPORT AT 1,7920 AND 1,7880. WE EXPECT TEST 1,8050 REGION SOON.

 

[profi-forex]

Forex Commentary 13.10.2004

13.10.2004 (05:40am US TIME)


USD/JPY (CURRENT LEVEL 109,85) - BULLS HOLD REGION 109,00. NOW SUPPORT STILL IS 109,50/60 REGION. THE NEAREST RESISTANCE 110,20 WHERE SHOULD FIND NEW BUYERS JPY. IN THIS WEEK WE EXPECT BREAK SUPPORT AT 109,00 AND TEST 108,75 REGION.

EUR/USD (CURRENT LEVEL 1,2320) - AS WE SUGGESTED ON MONDAY PROBABLY WE HAD FALSE BREAK. YESTERDAY USD FORTFY TO 1,2285 REGION. IN THIS MOMENT WE HAVE BOUNCE. THE NEAREST RESISTANCE 1,2550/75. IF BULLS ARE THINKING ABOUT SERIOUS RISES WE SHOULD END THIS WEEK AT 1,2460 REGION.

USD/CHF (CURRENT LEVEL 1,2549) - SUPPORT AT 1,2530/40. RESISTANCE 1,2580/1,2600. UNEXPECTLY BULLS TESTED YESTERDAY 1,2600. WE CAN`T RULLED OUT RISES EVEN TO 1,2650 REGION.

GBP/USD (CURRENT LEVEL 1,7912) - BULLS TESTED ONLY 1,8000 REGION AND YESTERDAY AFTER WHORST DATA FROM UK WE TESTED 1,7840 REGION. NOW WE HAVE BOUNCE, WHICH MAX SHOULD REACH 1,7920/50 REGION.

 

[profi-forex]

Forex Commentary 15.10.2004

15.10.2004 (02:33am US TIME)


USD/JPY (CURRENT LEVEL 109,51) - BULLS NEXT TIME HOLD SUPPORT AT 109,15/00. BUT THEY COULDN`T BREAK 109,75/110,10 REGION. NEXT DIREXTION DEPEND ON BREAK THIS RANGE. IF SUPPORT AT 109,15/00 WILL BE BROKEN, WE SHOULD SEE TEST 108,75/50 REGIN BUT IF RESSISTANCE AT 109,75/110,00 WILL BE BROKEN, WE SHOULD SEE TEST 110,20/40 REGION.

EUR/USD (CURRENT LEVEL 1,2394) - YESTERDAY WE WERE WITNESSES UNSUCCESFUL TEST 1,2420 REGION. BULLS FIND SUPPORT AT 1,2365/70. LARGE INFLUENCE ON TODAY`S COURSES WOULD HAVE TODAY`S US DATA AND A.GREENSPAN SPEACH ABOUT INFLUENCE HIGH BRENT PRICES ON ECONOMY. ONLY WHEN EUR CLOSE ABOVE 1,2460/80 WE COULD SEE NEW TOPS.

USD/CHF (CURRENT LEVEL 1,2438) - STRONG SUPPORT AT 1,2400/25. BREAK THIS REGION WILL OPEN THE WAY TOWARDS 1,2350/70. WE CAN`T RULLED OUT TEST NEW MINIMUMS.

GBP/USD (CURRENT LEVEL 1,7975) - ON DAILY CHART WE COULD FIND DOUBLE BOTTOM WHAT COULD SUGGEST RIRES TOWARDS 1,8200. VERY IMPORTANT FOR BULLS IS TO CLOSE ABOVE 1,8025/40 REGION.

 

[profi-forex]

Forex Commentary 19.10.2004

19.10.2004 (05:28am US TIME)


USD/JPY (CURRENT LEVEL 109,05) - BECAUSE OF FALLING BRENT PRICES BEARS COULD TEST 108,90 REGION. BREAK THIS SUPPORT WILL OPEN THE WAY TO FALLS TOWARDS 108,70 AND EVEN 108,00 REGION. IF SUPPORT HOLD, WE SHOULD SEE BACK UP MOVE TOWARDS 109,40.

EUR/USD (CURRENT LEVEL 1,2494) - DURING JAPANESE SESION WE TESTED SUPPORT AT 1,2440/50 REGION, FROM THERE WE HAVE BOUNCE, WHICH SHOUDN`T GO HIGHER THAN 1,2495/1,2505. DURING NY SESION WE EXPECT AGAIN TEST ABOVE-MENTIONED SUPPORT, BREAK THIS AND TEST THE NEXT SUPPORT AT 1,2400.

USD/CHF (CURRENT LEVEL 1,2323) - TODAY WE TESTED RESISTANCE AT 1,2370. FROM THERE WE HAD BACK UP MOVE AND NOW WE ARE TESTING SUPPORT AT 1,2300. AFTER NY SESION WE CAN`T RULLED OUT BREAK RESISTANCE AT 1,2370 AND TEST THE NEXT AT 1,2400 REGION.

GBP/USD (CURRENT LEVEL 1,7981) - STRONG SUPPORT AT 1,7920. RESISTANCE AT 1,8000/25 REGION..

 

[profi-forex]

Forex Commentary 02.11.2004

TODAY`s DATA: (02.11.2004) (US TIME)

GBP

04:30am - CIPS Construction Industry PMI prev. 1,9B for. 1,7B

04:30am - PMI Construction (survey) prev. 56,8 for. 56,2

04:00am - CBI Distributive Trades Report prev. -4/b>

AUD

05:30pm - RBA RATE DECISION prev. 5,25% for. 5,25%

USD

ELECTIONS DAY


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02.11.2004


EUR/USD (CURRENT LEVEL 1,2700) - ALL MARKT IS VERY NERVOUS TODAY BECAUSE OF ELECTION DAY IN USA
SUPPORT - 1,2690, 1,2620/50
RESISTANCE - 1,2750, 1,2815/40

USD/JPY (CURRENT LEVEL 106,51) - RANGE 105,80 - 107,00. IF BOJ WILL NOT HELP USD NEAR TERM WE SHOULD SEE COURSE USD/JPY AT 100,00.

USD/CHF (CURRENT LEVEL 1,2053) - RESISTANCE 1,2080, WE CAN`T RULLED OUT ATTACK 1,2130. SUPPORT 1,1985/1,2015.

GBP/USD (CURRENT LEVEL 1,8326) - STRONG SUPPORT 1,8250 AND 1,8200. RESISTACNE 1,8370/1,8400.

 

[profi-forex]

Forex Commentary 04.11.2004

TODAY`s DATA: (04.11.2004) (US TIME)

CHF

01:45am - SECO Consumer Climate prev. -12 for. -13

01:45am - CPI m/m prev. 0,0% for. 0,7%

01:45am - CPI y/y prev. 0,9% for. 1,1%

GBP

04:30am - Total New Construction Orders prev. 2338,0

05:30am - NTC, Deloitte & REC Report on Jobs

06:00am - BRC Shop Price Index

07:00am - BOE Announces Rates prev. 4,75% for. 4,75%

EUR

05:00am - PPI m/m prev. 0,4% for. 0,2%

05:00am - PPI y/y prev. 3,1% for. 3,3%

05:00am - Unemployment Rate prev. 9,0% for. 9,0%

07:45am - ECB Announces Interest Rates prev. 2,0% for. 2,0%

USD

08:30am - Nonfarm Productivity prev. 2,5% for. 1,6%

08:30am - Unit Labor Costs prev. 1,8% for. 2,5%

08:30am - Initial Jobless Claims prev. 350K for. 340K

08:30am - Continuing Claims prev. 2823K

CAD

08:30am - BoC Deputy Governor Kennedy Speaks

08:30am - Building Permits prev. -4,6% for. 2,0%

10:00am - Ivey Purchasing Managers Index prev. 66,0 for. 63,0

NZD

04:45pm - Trade Balance (Revised)



------------------------------------------------------------------------



04.11.2004 (06:42am US TIME)

EUR/USD (CURRENT LEVEL 1,2852) - TODAY MORNING WE SOW UNSUCCECFULL TEST 1,2840 REGION, THATS WHY LATER WAS BACK UP MOVE TOWARDS 1,2780. AT THOSE REGION BULLS ATTACK ONES MOREREGION 1,2840 AND LATER TESTED 1,2880. BEFORE TOMMOROWS US DATA (NFP) BULLS WILL TRY TEST 1,2900.

USD/JPY (CURRENT LEVEL 106,18) - SUPPORT 105,80. RESISTANCE 106,40 AND 107,00.

USD/CHF (CURRENT LEVEL 1,1896) - THIS PAIR IS NOW AT LOWEST REGION FROM 8 YEARS. PROBABLY NEXT BULLS` TARGET WILL BE 1,1600. RESISTANCE 1,1950 AND 1,2000

GBP/USD (CURRENT LEVEL 1,8472) - BULLS CAN`T HOLD 1,8500. AFTER UNSUCCESFUL TEST BULLS FIND SUPPORT AT 1,8410/30. NOW THE TRY ONES MORE BREAK RESISTANCE AT 1,8500. NEXT RESISTANCE IS 1,8550.

 

[profi-forex]

Forex Commentary 09.11.2004

09.11.2004

Tommorow We Will Know Fed Decision About Rise Rate (market Forecast Rise Rate To 2,00%). It Seeems Like Very Important Is Fed Commentary About Rate In December.

Today We Expect Falls Eur/usd Towards 1,2830/50 And Even 1,2800. Resistance For This Pair Is 1,2960/84.

The Nearest Fed Decision Should Help Usd On All Market:
- Usd/chf - We Should See Test 1,1870region;
- Gbp/usd - Resistance 1,8570/1,8615, Today We Expect Falls Towards 1,8450
- Usd/jpy - The Nearest Resistance 105,70/80, Next 106,20/40.

Happy Trading
Profi-forex Team

 

[profi-forex]

Forex Commentary 10.11.2004

10.11.2004

Today We Have Very Much Information From Us And European Market. This
Could Change Everything On Currencies Courses. The Most Important For
Market Is Trade Balance From Usa At 08:30am Us Time And Fed Decision
About Rise Rate At 02:15pm Us Time.

Course Eur/usd After Reached Max At 1,2984 Back To 1,2900. The First
Support - 1,2880 Next 1,2440/50. It Seems Like Today`s Fed Decision
About Rise Rate Could Help Usd, But Most Important Influence Could
Have Commentary About Fed Meeting In December. If Fed Give Traders To
Understand That Will Rise Rate Again, Bulls On Eur/usd Market Would Be
Under Pressure. Watch Then Regions 1,2800 And 1,2760.

 

[profi-forex]

Forex Commentary 12.11.2004

12.11.2004

We Had Many Important News ( Election In Usa, Very Good Nfp, Good
Trade Balance In Usa And Rose Rates). All Data Should Have Good
Influence For Usd, But For Example: With Eur, Usd Fortify Only To
1,2850 Region. Because Of So Weak Reaction Of This Data We Expect In
Near Term Test 1,3000 Region And Attack At 1,3200.
With Jpy, After Test 107,30 Region Two Days Ago, Usd Fall By About 100
Pips. We Expect To The End Of The Year Break Lasts Supports And Test
100,00 Region.

Happy Trading
Profi-forex Team

 

[profi-forex]

Forex Commentary 16.11.2004

16.11.2004

Eur/usd (current Level 1,2940) - Yesterday We Saw Unsuccesful Test 1,3000 Region. We Find Support At 1,2915/25. If Today Support Holds We Should Ones More Test 1,3000 Region, But Break Support Will Open The Way Towards 1,2840/70 Region.

Usd/jpy (current Level 105,43) - Bulls Still Hold Support At 105,00 Region. Break This Support Will Open The Way Towards 104,00 , But Hold Support Will Help In Attack 106,00 Region.

 

[profi-forex]

Forex Commentary 22.11.2004

22.11.2004 ( 06:49am Us Time)

Eur/usd (current Level 1,3035) - Market Looks Like Very Queit Today. Probably We Will Have Narrow Range Today - 1,2980 - 1,3050. Eventually Break Support Will Open The Way To Falls Towards 1,2935 Region.

Usd/jpy (current Level 103,08) - This Pair Find Support At 102,80. The Nearest Resistance 103,40/70 And 104,20. Watch Market Carefully.

 

[profi-forex]

Forex Commentary 23.11.2004

23.11.2004 ( 03:18am Us Time)

Eur/usd (current Level 1,3006) - After Yesterday Very Queit Day Bears During Japanese Session Attacked. We Tested Support At 1,2975. It Seems Like This Wasn`t The Last Bear`s Word And We Could See Tests 1,2930 And Even 1,2850/70 Regions.

Usd/jpy (current Level 103,31) - Usd Holds Above 103,00 Region. During Japanese Session We Tested 103,60 Egion. Next Resistance Is 104,00/20.