Swing trading FTSE100 members

[barjon]

tomo

bae and hsbc fallaways too sharp for my taste so I'll probably wait on trend to resume first before looking .

currently running av, barc and imp longs

I've been meaning to say that if you're going to do this seriously you've got to be wary of SB since the spread on a lot of the shares will kill you for the sort of shortish term trading you're doing. For something like azn, for example, you're probably looking at around a 7 point spread on SB as opposed to watching it fluctuate between 0.5 and 1.5 on CFD. You don't need to be trading much size before CFD becomes the cheaper option even allowing for minimum commissions.

 

[tomorton]

Cheers jon, this will be something I must keep an eye on, though I don't see my approach - multiple positions, have been up to 15, with possibly another 2-4 pending - ever allowing me to allocate significant stakes per position. It's the anti-thesis of the FTSE100 index swinging I used to try for (1 major market-following position).

 

[tomorton]

No positions open, happy with that as this market is over-extended and looking weak. However, 5 or 6 buy orders entered for tomorrow just in case we go higher, though hard to believe, but I will let the market tell me what the market is doing, and no short signals showed tonight anyway.

 

[tomorton]

Two of my buy orders triggered this am, ICAP and Experian. Surprised to see the market so vigorous but the uptrend was not broken by yesterday's fall and these two readily recovered their highs.

 

[barjon]

lol - and i been busy closing - both imps and barc gone

 

[tomorton]

The indices are always a useful guide to market sentiment, even if you don't base trade decisions on them. The FTSE ran out of steam on 24/02 but has not on my chart made a neat 3-day retracement yet, so uptrend remains unchallenged. A 3-day retracement would have allowed index traders a nice long re-entry. The DAX had already hit a barrier and likewise has failed to either proceed or make a 3-day retracement, whereas the CAC continues to push on higher.

The US indices have had more confidence than London and continued their advance until Wednesday.

The odds favour an undramatic resumption of uptrends after the weekend.

 

[tomorton]

As you might expect, quite a few confused share price swing charts abound in the 100. My Experian long was stopped out, still holding ICAP and now Tullow Oil also.

 

[barjon]

..............The odds favour an undramatic resumption of uptrends after the weekend............

That'd be nice, although we could do with a bit of retreating since potential signals have dried up.

Mind you, it is feeling a bit toppy. Quite a lot of the shorter term trends have gone flat or turned over and there are a few potential shorts beginning to appear. We'll soon find out

 

[tomorton]

FTSE has now made a nice 3-day retracement, though it took 7 sessions to get there. ICAP, Tullow and Petrofac longs stopped out, though trailing stops limited the damage. Fall on share price charts bad enough in a couple of cases to cause me to cancel some long entry orders when price breached the prior swing low. Other buy orders lowered (remembering to re-check and adjust risk per trade) and a raft of new buys entered. Do I really think these will be triggered? - I don't know, I am letting the market tell me.

 

[barjon]

Oh, I wish I hadn't been late on parade today

Remember my "ideal" posted earlier? Well the only thing going on my watch list yesterday was adm which seemed an enormously strong performance given ftse sell-off.

When I opened up today it had had an enormous upward gap open and therefore untradeable. When I looked in my SB account, though, it looked as if it might have been possible. Whether it was, or whether it would have been scrubbed if I had I'll never know, but I wish I'd been around to find out.

 

[tomorton]

Bad luck jon.I had an ADM long position open and close high at a trailing stop this am by half nine. Nice gain. I had 25 long entry positions open overnight in case of a bounce. ADM and ICAP opened and closed for gains already. BAE and Bunzl are running and in the money. The others have not yet triggered and may be cancelled or lowered tonight after the close.

Haven't had 25 orders pending before. Am I living on the edge yet?

 

[China Diapers]

What do you guys reckon about this. Had my limit set at 368.6 to take profit which the price reached for a split second and I didn't get filled.

Now if I move my stop to BE I risk getting stopped out and then the price breaking out higher.

On the other hand if I leave my stop as is my unrealised profit could turn into a loss.

What would you do?

 

[tomorton]

Hi China - I see the markets continuing higher on Monday so you have at least until late Monday pm to work this out.

 

[tomorton]

Nice bounce so far from Wednesday, lots of buys triggered (15) and most in the money, even if were to be stopped out on the trailing stops. Unfortunately, Barclays buy did not trigger for some reason. No new buys recognised tonight, and only 1 or 2 rather poor shorts. Typical long would be Johnson Matthey - swing low on Tuesday, well above previous swing low 25/01: 3 good up / blue days from there and we close the week near its high, suggesting follow-through to new highs on Monday.

 

[China Diapers]

Hi China - I see the markets continuing higher on Monday so you have at least until late Monday pm to work this out.

Thanks that is encouraging

I have thought about it and I am not going to get into a habit of moving stops to BE, could have frustrating consequences.

Glad to see the swing trading is still working out for you.

 

[barjon]

What do you guys reckon about this. Had my limit set at 368.6 to take profit which the price reached for a split second and I didn't get filled.

Now if I move my stop to BE I risk getting stopped out and then the price breaking out higher.

On the other hand if I leave my stop as is my unrealised profit could turn into a loss.

What would you do?

China

Bit surprised you're still in and you're playing a pretty small price range of around 6 points from entry which is not comfortable.

Looking at the M15 chart I'd be pretty nervous if price dropped below 363 and I'd probably be lifting my "kill zone" upper limit to around there and watching it like a hawk if it went into it. I think I'd probably be taking the view that I'd missed my profit opportunity so that from a "plan" perspective the trade was dead and I'd be content to wrap it up around b/e if it looked rocky.

In two minds whether to post this as you've decided to stick to your guns, so please don't let it influence your own view. It's just my take on it since you asked.

jon

 

[China Diapers]

China

Bit surprised you're still in and you're playing a pretty small price range of around 6 points from entry which is not comfortable.

Looking at the M15 chart I'd be pretty nervous if price dropped below 363 and I'd probably be lifting my "kill zone" upper limit to around there and watching it like a hawk if it went into it. I think I'd probably be taking the view that I'd missed my profit opportunity so that from a "plan" perspective the trade was dead and I'd be content to wrap it up around b/e if it looked rocky.

In two minds whether to post this as you've decided to stick to your guns, so please don't let it influence your own view. It's just my take on it since you asked.

jon

Firstly, I hope Tomorton doesn't mind me posting all this on this thread.

Secondly, please feel free to comment on any of my posts at any time, god knows I need it.

I don't have access to charts or my trading platform during LSE trading hours so making a decision intraday is not an option for me. All I can do is nothing or put in a market order to close the trade the next day or adjust my stop.

If I am going to start moving my stop to break even how can I ensure I am consistent in my decision making going forward? Am I going to say "if price reaches x amount of points from target and reverses move stop to BE". Obviously I want to give the trade enough room to live up to it's potential.

Maybe I should start reviewing the intraday price action when I get home and basing my decisions off of that?

Apologies Tomorton, maybe I should start my own thread.

 

[barjon]

China

Didn't realise you had to be off piste during the day, apologies.

You could review intraday action, but you are trading off the daily so that's where you should remain for your decisions. Do review properly what happens on that, though. For example, it's often the case that if price fails to make a new high it will go to a full A,B,C retracement taking it below the original "signal" swing low, or it may to a reversal.

If you find this is happening to your trades then you'll soon find out whether moving your stop to b/e is preferable or not.

Jon

 

[China Diapers]

China

Didn't realise you had to be off piste during the day, apologies.

You could review intraday action, but you are trading off the daily so that's where you should remain for your decisions. Do review properly what happens on that, though. For example, it's often the case that if price fails to make a new high it will go to a full A,B,C retracement taking it below the original "signal" swing low, or it may to a reversal.

If you find this is happening to your trades then you'll soon find out whether moving your stop to b/e is preferable or not.

Jon

I am very much off-piste during the day unfortunately.

I take your point thanks for the advice.

 

[tomorton]

Hi China - If you can't adjust / react during the session (often my situation also), it really emphasises you need to have two exits in view and entered as orders as you enter - the stop and the target. If you can't see both, the entry on this market is negated and move on to another. Of course, if the position goes in the money but the tartet is not hit, you could adjust both target outwards and stop inwards, but I would not recommend the habit of pushing the stop further out for any reason at all.