Swing and Position Trading

[techst]

Good stuff guys i had 915 down on ETI as my potential buy trap price.

When i first read the Come in to my Trading Room what really struck home was the mindset required to trade. Then i picked the system parts of the book and lifted them so to speak and wrote them on word as rules and guidelines. There's a method in the book but it's not visually displayed. I've used the concept and built a system around it. I don't change any parameters at all. Normally if something hasn't worked and i make a loss, it's a 'business man risk' that I've taken. Or I look at how i managed the trade and my entry also. I don't think that changing my indicators would have made any difference to the outcome. Because it's the mental game that takes longer to conquer than finding a method.

 

[Rex79]

morning guys, hope your all well -

just an update - screwed up on ETI - bought at 897 - then was un expectedly away from my computer for a few days - so had to phone up and close the position - as I wasn't aware of which way prices/markets were moving - sold out at 916. only to watch prices move up around 940/950 - oh well, at least no loss made

lesson learnt there for myself ! - will you know what your plans were if you suddenly lost your computer ?

 

[techst]

ahh! all those practical mishaps and lessons that you don't find in books are just as important!

 

[techst]

I can't be bothered with a blog now, lol

 

[techst]

Still Trading

Well, I haven't posted here for a while and I see looking back, this thread was quite sucessful. I'm now managing a private account with a profit split, a mini-hedge fund if you will.

I'm still using the same technical and indicators and nothing much has changed in this department. What has changed Is my trade selection. Through study of previous trades and reviewing my records, I've tried to weed out lower odds trades. I'll post a few charts here and if things pick up I'll keep posting. Some of these trades wont be for you, wont fit your system,etc. They are only setups, only an entry so I'll post a trade and post and my exit. But this is no advice to long/short any stock, just an insight to how I trade FTSE350 stocks. I enjoyed sharing thoughts, views and ideas when this thread was up and running and would like to return to those interesting discussions.

AQP

I traded this stock long on the last trendline touch, the stock has dipped below the value area noted on the chart by the two moving averages (70,130EMAs). I like to be patient and wait for stocks to come back to this area. I then zero in on the price action set some short-term support and resistance areas, when the stock breaks above a local resistance on strong volume, I have an entry. That's only an entry, It's not 100% percent, no system is. My short term zone here was 1550 with a target of 1650-1700. Now if I had not done my home work I wouldn't have caught this. But I tend to enter these buy stops on down or inactive days, If the trade doesn't materialise, I cancel the pending order. This one triggered right at the close on Friday (11th May). Although I'm giving up alot of profit buy not entering the stock earlier, I have a good chance of a 5-10% gain first of all. This is because I've waited for the stock to show me that it's in a bullish mood. You could argue that friday was the real sign of strength, so I should have time to evaluate the strength of the move and exit of a small loss if the trade doesn't play out.

Any thoughts on this trade?, any swing traders still out there? I keep the thread going here if we see some interest. Thanks for reading.

 

[aspex]

Good idea.
I will try to oblige though I am leaving my base for the UK for much of June and July.
I have recently traded LARD and SCHE recently based more on news driven action than anything else.
I missed AU. and EZJ on long positions as well.
I firmly believe that short term trades on FT350 stocks using CFDS in my case is a potentially bonanza.
BTW my use of CFDs is more driven by my tax position and the fact that they are very easily linked to the true share movemeent than other derivative products. My provider is quote driven not DMAS but that also suits as there is very little overheads for smaller transactions.
I think there is benefit in discussing potential stocks because none of us is big enough to cause any market changes.
Incidentally, I am looking at AV. and possibly NIS once it prints a new low. Its bold takeover move has soured a few punters and only when they have more visibilty will they go back in.
looking seriously at FT100 index as well for quick moves.

 

[Rex79]

I enjoyed sharing thoughts, views and ideas when this thread was up and running and would like to return to those interesting discussions.

Any thoughts on this trade?, any swing traders still out there? I keep the thread going here if we see some interest. Thanks for reading.[/QUOTE]


Glad to hear your still on it - long time no hear - My ideas are similar to your own - have a personalised Elder approach. although at the moment I'm on the side lines occasionally having a look through some charts - hopfully in about 6 months I will be more involved (personal life too frantic at moment) - anyway on that note my offering to the pot is NG. - i think it will be set to rise soon although I would wait for it to break a resistance line just below 780 (to prove it is upwardly mobile) fits similar criteria to your own -

Rex

 

[techst]

Hi Rex, hope your well. Hmmm.. I wonder where you got those moving averages from.lol

Sometimes It's good to take some time out of the market to get some rest, I did that last year for 2 months, distance = perspective.

NG - It very nice clean chart, with good bars, which lends it self to my style of trading. The reason i don't have this stock on my watchlist is that it's a little bit slugglish. I measure the channel width to make sure the stock has enough movement to take a nice percentage slice out of it.

I quickly measure this by looking for the nearest round figure near the 22EMA. I looked at the 765 area then looked at the resistance this upmove lasted, in this case 815 (looking at the setup 3 months ago) So 815-765= 50 divide that by 765 x 100 = 6.5%. So for me the channel is a little bit thin.

The miners swing 20% plus so do a few other select stocks, ADM and AQP also print nice wide channels. And taking 10-15% from these types of stocks is easier. With NG you dont even get 10% in the channel I'm looking to trade. Buy hey, each to his own.

Nice to hear from you and I'll printing some more market observations when I'm not out playing football in the nice weather.

 

[techst]

The Return

Hello,

Gonna bump up my ole thread from years ago. Yeah, I'm still trading and gonna share some stuff on swing trading again.

 

[tomorton]

Welcome back techst, I'll be watching out for more posts here.

 

[Rex79]

spooky timing - I haven't traded since this thread was active - even then I was a learner on £1-2 a point. (been renovating an old church hall to a house) - it's consumed the last 8 years of my life, a couple of kids along the way.

However, I'd been thinking about it recently. So I'll be a while sorting out some software etc and then hopefully I'll be back on it. - was looking at some old posts and I can hardly remember what I knew then!

Good to hear your still going - hopefully it won't take me too long to get up to speed.

Rex

 

[techst]

Drax Trades

Nice to hear from you Rex been a long time since we were both active here.
Hopefully some fellow swing traders will join us and come out of the woodwork.
Posting some of their ideas, thoughts and trades.

I may find a better way to display my charts as the PDF appears to be blurred.
But I've just moved over to using Microsoft OneNote so still getting used to it.

I used to post interesting setups here, trades I was entering. Going forward I'm gonna explain the reasoning behind my trades I have recently taken or have partially taken profit on already. Posting everything here will take too much work and I don't like tying up my opinion on a stock on a forum, mainly because my opinion can change quickly on a setup. And plus it's not all about entries anyway. I'll post some examples of what I mean in the future.

Drax Group (see chart)

For a utility stock this has a nice chunky channel, wide swing movements with plenty of room to make gains in.

Chart Key - Orange dots are entries, Purple dots exits
Arrows - show the areas that were focusing my attention to trading this
Purple lines - just showing what volume was related to what days candle

Drax is in a bear market, moves to value trigger my interest. As the stock rises towards the 70EMA it goes on my watchlist.

The first arrow (late Oct) is pointing to an entry I would take, I was tied up in other stocks when this came about so didn't hit it and for me, this is the stocks 1st attempt to leaving the value area so I would tread with caution anyway. The stocks been in the value area and it closing near the low on improved volume.

By the time the second (2nd attempt to leave value) arrow comes round I'm free capital wise to trade this. Plus, this signal is sooo good I really can't not take it. On the first orange dot (entry day) the stock closes down right at the close on strong volume. It's the large upward move previously (2nd purple line) that makes this a solid setup. The entry day and the strong close wipes out any gains and leaves bulls scrambling, it's quite possible those bulls were bears who are now short covering from the first attempt to move from value.

There's so many players in markets all with different strategies it doesn't really matter how I rationalise it, you see false upside/downside breakouts all the time. The market needs to catch the majority on the wrong side of the trade in order move in its intended direction. And that’s what this did it's as clear as day here on that chart to me.

I then sold half as it gapped down then sold the following few days later.

The second is the same but from the long side. 3 attempts to move up, large volume, bulls (bottom pickers and short covering) hoping to pick the next move up keep getting trapped as their gains are wiped out as the stocks continues to close down flushing out weak hands. Then once again the trade is staring me in face and I can't turn down a quick countertrend move back to the value area. It’s the closing prices that are important here. The stock had several attempts to move higher in the morning/midday then closing lower creating the flush out.

A lot of what I'm doing here in terms of analysis is done everyday when the stock's on my watchlist. Looking at the chart several times a day and just checking it's progress seeing where the important levels are and having a planned entry, stop and target ready if the stock moves below or above a certain point. If the stock doesn't move as I pictured, then I don't trade it and I move onto something else, leaving it on my watchlist to keep an eye on it. There's plenty of opportunities out there 🙂

Merry Xmas and a Happy New Year x

 

[Rex79]

Hi gents,

I am in no way trading and only just getting software up and running etc...

so take things with a pinch of salt (also I'm also working shifts at the minute, which screws up my idea of trading) but this will be over by Feb and I hope to start up again. I'll be in and out of this thread though when I can.

Personally, I'll be concentrating on FTSE 100, as most likely will spread bet, may also consider some American stocks.

Anyway - I can see most things are heading downwards, however if market conditions change over night i.e positive Asian market close, and your looking for a buy candidate then out of the FTSE100, I would be having a good look at Hikma.

stops below previous close.

If Asian market closes down and/or 1st hour of german market is sinking then all deals are off.

Persimmon may also be worth looking at - wasn't too keen on that one though.

It'll probably do well, cause I haven't got any money on it!

Rex

 

[Rex79]

well that wasn't much cop.

I have some methods for picking my potential candidates, I can come up with my buy/sell list, but one area that I would like to work on is a general market indicator.

techst - do you use any such indicator.

I'm want to look into something along the lines of New high/new low or if trading stocks of the FTSE 100 do I just decide using the FTSE 100 index itself?

any thoughts?

 

[tomorton]

A decent market indicator for the FTSE100 stocks is the Dow - or some use the S&P. Either way, it would be unusual for UK large caps to make an extended move in one direction when the Dow is pushing in the other. Bear in mind the FTSE opens 5 hours earlier than New York so there's a built-in period each day when our stocks are without this indicator, which alone can be a good reason for avoiding UK stocks.

Personally, I have turned away from stocks as they're too volatile and just stick to forex.

 

[hhiusa]

It'll probably do well, cause I haven't got any money on it!

Rex

This sounds like a good example of Murphy's law in the markets.

 

[Rex79]

tomorton

out of curiosity what time frames to you trade in forex - I did try it, intraday on & off over a 12 month period, just about broke even in the end.

I haven't actually tried swing trading dailies though.

 

[tomorton]

tomorton

out of curiosity what time frames to you trade in forex - I did try it, intraday on & off over a 12 month period, just about broke even in the end.

I haven't actually tried swing trading dailies though.

I only enter trades/orders after the London close. No daytrades. Set stop and limit and try to avoid watching, though I will move the stop to entry once b/e has been hit if the trade's still live. Finding my trades run 2-5 days, rarely as much as 10. I could probably cut them earlier - if the entry signal doesn't produce a result in 5 days, its probably void anyway.

I've tried running winners and pyramiding winners - just doesn't pay for me, better to get the money in the bank as soon as the target is hit. Found that limit orders help in that regard - I was only trying to run trades through fear of not being in control or of not getting enough gain - when there's actually always another chance to get in.

 

[techst]

Hi Rex,

I don't use an indicator for the general market but I do complete review and analysis on the FTSE100, 250 and DJIA and the S&P 500. I do this weekly, looking at the Daily and Weekly charts seeing where we are in the markets current movement.

I'll spend a good few hours at the weekend or Friday night looking through all the stocks I follow. Through that list of say 50ish stocks I'll have a short list of long candidates and short candidates. Then its a matter of reacting, this helps to avoid being on the wrong side of the tide as it were.

I've found that the bear side has been where most of my profits have come over the last couple of months. That's a great indicator in itself. I'm looking through my trading log spreadsheet and I've failed to make good profits on longs. My own results have indicated where the money is. I had 3 short term longs that I had to close last Monday, one loss, one micro profit and one scratch trade, by Tuesday I was out of all 3. Through my weekly analysis I had 3 short setups and switched my focus to them instead. I had the orders in the market already for the shorts but I had been stalking these stocks for a few weeks, managing my orders and adjusting the orders daily depending where the prices were.

I find it really does help if you have a plan for the week, with a refreshed list of stocks both for longs and shorts. That way you don't really get caught having to do your analysis on setups on the fly. You've done all your setup and analysis homework and you can just react to whats happening.

This week I've struggled to find many candidates to trade, its more of a reflection of where the market is in it's movement, and where the stocks are in their movement from overbought or oversold.

🙂

 

[Rex79]

Cheer Techst@

The reason I'm looking for a decent sentiment indicator is due to my current shortage of time - I'm looking to tune in certain days and try and get a feel for market conditions. It may be not be that feasible, which I can accept.

I do understand that when you work with the markets every day you can feel how things are changing.

Anyway - If markets look good in the morning - (i.e good Asian overnight😆 and good german start- then Hikma is back on my list). Only with a close above the previous high. (which also relates to tweezer tops beginning of December.

Am I picking Hikma again because it didn't work out last time - Is this my mind running away with me, trying to turn a bad choice good? is this hope and not technical analysis?

Rex