Sunday debate

you are still mistaking the tick for something of meaning. it is not corelated to the s&p500...
Precisely my point Roth!
As for meaning, the chart speaks for itself, but I accept fully that it has no meaning for you. And that's fine, because when you were buying the 1109s as the futures were pressing fresh highs on the day, I'll be taking the other side of your trade.
(y)
Tim.
 
lol ok. i bow to your staggering genius. and you wont be taking the otherside of my trade as im not a spreadbetting firm.

you seem to think that because the ratio of gainers to losers for ALL NYSE stocks somehow leads the sp500 is laughable. first off s&p500 is a weighted index so a positive tick ratio doesn't mean sp500 would be rising. and 2nd sp500 doesnt contain all the stocks of the TICK.

you are a fool.
 
also i fail to see how you conclude a divergence between tick and sp's over 30mins equates to stocks leading futures?

the CASH AND THE FUTURE WERE RISING TOGETHER. the actuall stocks on the S AND P 500 WERE RISING WITH THE FUTURES. THE CASH WASN'T LEADING THE FUTURES LOWER

Jesus Christ.
 
rothy

I can understand that if heavyweight shares are being actively bought then their price will probably rise and that, in turn, will move the index north a touch - all other things being equal (alright, I know they are not :)) - and that, in turn, will shift the futures.

I can also understand - a bit less easily - that if futures rise then programs buy a basket of shares causing their price to rise which, in turn, shifts the index north.

But, surely, it cannot always be the case that shares are actively bought only if the futures permit it by rising first? 'Course if I was asked to buy a few million shares in Glaxo, BP and HSBC , say, I'd probably have a dabble in the futures first. Or would that be illegal :devilish:

jon
 
Roth',
Oh dear.
Why can't you respect my views - as I respect yours - without resorting to personal insult? If you take the trouble to read what I've posted, you'll see that you've got the wrong end of the stick. My entire point is a very simple one, namely, that futures can't go one way and equities the other. And, very often, as my chart clearly shows, it's equities who are in the driving seat. Your welcome to disagree with me and present your case, but please do so in a civilzed and courteous manner in future.
Good trading to you.
Tim.
 
Roth',
Oh dear.
Why can't you respect my views - as I respect yours - without resorting to personal insult? If you take the trouble to read what I've posted, you'll see that you've got the wrong end of the stick. My entire point is a very simple one, namely, that futures can't go one way and equities the other. And, very often, as my chart clearly shows, it's equities who are in the driving seat. Your welcome to disagree with me and present your case, but please do so in a civilzed and courteous manner in future.
Good trading to you.
Tim.

oh my, a rising tick does not equal a rising sp500. your entire theory is flawed. and why would i respect a view that is wrong?

and i resort to personal insults as i get so frustrated with how dumb some of you lot are i think i would actually lose the rag and punch you for being that thick in person.

anyway i concede, you are right. cash leads the futures. i guess myself and everyone else who knows better should go back to the drawing board.
 
the fact you have written "equities make lower highs" on your tick chart shows how little you undertand whats going on.

TICK is the number of stocks rising vs the number of stocks falling. it does not show at all by how much they are rising. there for does NOT IN ANYWAY show that stocks are making lower highs.
 
here we have the index of ALL NYSE stocks. All the stocks the TICK shows (what you believe shows the stocks rising all falling, but is infact just the ratio of gainers to losers)

doesn't look like all the equities on the NSYE were making lower highs to me?

thank you, you have all been wonderful. good night and godspeed (y)

i will now give you a 5min audience so you can apologies for arguing with me.
 

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ok rothy, you can lay into me now :cheesy: for post 84 above

jon
 
. . . and i resort to personal insults as i get so frustrated with how dumb some of you lot are i think i would actually lose the rag and punch you for being that thick in person.
I apologise for not having explained myself clearly enough to you as you appear to be having great difficulty in grasping my basic point. It's a classic case of not being able to see the wood for the trees. Some bright spark came out with the line: 'the mind is like a parachute, it works best when it's open'. If you're willing to make the effort to keep an open mind and to try and understand what I'm saying without being rude, I'm happy to try to explain it again. Otherwise, there's little point. You will struggle to learn anything in life and your frustration will mount exponentially if you insist that you're right all the time and that anyone who disagrees with you is an idiot.
;)
Tim.
 
Who gives a **** wot leads wot ...seriously..your all looking at the wrong stuff anyhow :cheesy::innocent:
 
I apologise for not having explained myself clearly enough to you as you appear to be having great difficulty in grasping my basic point. It's a classic case of not being able to see the wood for the trees. Some bright spark came out with the line: 'the mind is like a parachute, it works best when it's open'. If you're willing to make the effort to keep an open mind and to try and understand what I'm saying without being rude, I'm happy to try to explain it again. Otherwise, there's little point. You will struggle to learn anything in life and your frustration will mount exponentially if you insist that you're right all the time and that anyone who disagrees with you is an idiot.
;)
Tim.

timsk, stfu, i have addressed every claim and statement you have made. just because you have been proved wrong dont go trying to manipulate the argument

you wrote on YOUR screen shot the tick shows equities making higher lows. you are wrong deal with it.
 
timsk, stfu, i have addressed every claim and statement you have made. just because you have been proved wrong dont go trying to manipulate the argument

you wrote on YOUR screen shot the tick shows equities making higher lows. you are wrong deal with it.

I'm afraid you've addressed nothing other than what you think I'm saying, rather than what I'm actually saying, which is altogether very different. You see what you want to see, rather than what is there. As the door to your mind appears to be well and truly bolted on this issue, and you are incapable of exchanging ideas without being offensive, there is little point in pursuing this any further.

I do hope you can curb your tendency to be very unpleasant towards anyone who disagrees with you because, in the eyes of the membership, it devalues the good ideas and positive posts that you contribute to the site. The irony of that is that said members are more likely to be influenced by misguided idiots like me, than they are omnipotent trading gods like you.
Tim.
 
Actually, large futures liquidity players (commercial operations.....not retailers) pay attention to several primary flows of data that they have to frequently REACT to throughout the trade day. First is Equities side BUY and SELL program activity......like the days when futures side commercial players are COVERING massive held positions throughout the day in REACTION to Equities lead BUY or SELL program activity. Large liquidity players who have held tens of thousands of SHORT contracts in the ES don't just out of the blue decide to unwind all that inventory (after they just held it for the past few days.....accumulating heavy SHORT positions selling into new highs). Heck no, they only unwind when forced out by heavy Equities lead BUY program activity that is counter to their held SHORT positions. Equities INITIATES the BUY program activity and futures follows by BUYING to cover out of their held SHORT positions (SHORT covering rally in ES).

In general the MARKETS will go up when there is EQUITIES buying interest and the markets will go down when there is Equities selling.......futures just get to go along for the ride (and get used frequently for hedging). This is the exact reason why there are numerous hedge funds with EQUITIES data lead ES/YM/TF buying/selling algorithmic automated programs. Also, if you dig deep into futures side "Trade Intensity" order flow events in the ES data flow (with commercial grade data feeds like Bloomberg, etc), you will find how correlated the many bursts of ES order flow is in reaction to Equities BUY and SELL program activity.

There are times when large futures side liquidity players will get aggressive with order flow activities in the various equity indexes to drive price away from significant held inventory (when Equities is flat with no active BUY or SELL program activity in effect). This happens frequently out of cash session opens when the market is gapped up or down and current prices traded are not advantageous to the current cost basis of the large held futures positions.....commercial operation futures side players will drive price for a very short time (minutes) to start unwinding portions or all of their held inventory (defensive move). This is when you will see the large liquidity players in futures selling the ES, YM , and NQ all in concert for a very short period of time (minutes) and then suddenly start covering out large inventory. This activity happens a couple times a month and is not at all typical day after day trading activity.

There are all kinds of other little games as seen between Equities and Futures large liquidity players but that is another paragraph or two.....sorry, not tonight.
 
I'm afraid you've addressed nothing other than what you think I'm saying, rather than what I'm actually saying, which is altogether very different. You see what you want to see, rather than what is there. As the door to your mind appears to be well and truly bolted on this issue, and you are incapable of exchanging ideas without being offensive, there is little point in pursuing this any further.

I do hope you can curb your tendency to be very unpleasant towards anyone who disagrees with you because, in the eyes of the membership, it devalues the good ideas and positive posts that you contribute to the site. The irony of that is that said members are more likely to be influenced by misguided idiots like me, than they are omnipotent trading gods like you.
Tim.

yep people will be guided by people like you as you represent the site, or what ever you do. and thats a crying shame as they will never make anything of themselves listening to people like you. there is a handfull of real traders on this site, trading for a living on big account, just a handful. people like you destroy anything they add to the site.

you may be able to beat me in an argument of linguistics and who can get there point over better, i suck at that. but the fact remains you are wrong, and you can claim im missing the point but the points you have made are ALL incorrect.

try addressing your comments regarding the tick showing equities making lowers highs when i have proved this to be total gibberish?

maybe if you actually listened to me you would learn something, maybe make a few extra quid.

all you have done is claim i am missing your point, which is a classic trick for anyone who has been proven wrong, along with nit picking at grammar etc.

anyway frankly i don't know why i get caught up in these slagging matches with total rank amateurs, i couldn't care less if you don't know what your doing, more money for me at the end of the day i guess.

que your post of claiming i cant see the tree's for the forrest, and bears **** in the woods and bla bla without actually addressing anything.
 
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yep people will be guided by people like you as you represent the site, or what ever you do. and thats a crying shame as they will never make anything of themselves listening to people like you. there is a handfull of real traders on this site, trading for a living on big account, just a handful. people like you destroy anything they add to the site.
Two points:
1. I go out of my way to invite constructive criticism regarding anything I do with my official T2W hat on - e.g. Stickies. Most of the stuff I produce has been vetted by at least two other experienced traders to ensure that no major clangers have slipped through the net. Additionally, I am very careful not to present just my own views, but to present the wider views of the trading community. If you feel that anything I've produced needs changing because it contains wrong or misguided information, then please tell me and I will correct it immediately.
2. If you can come up with ANY other members of the site - regardless of whether they're experienced pros or complete newbies who feel that what I'm doing is damaging to the site in the way that you describe, then I urge you - and them - to give me the opportunity to put things right, i.e. point one, above. Obviously, if I'm unco-operative and nothing is done, I suggest you contact Sharky. He will, doubtless, take appropriate action as he obviously does not want staff who are damaging to the site in the way that you imply.

you may be able to beat me in an argument of linguistics and who can get there point over better, i suck at that. but the fact remains you are wrong, and you can claim im missing the point but the points you have made are ALL incorrect.
Thanks for the compliment. As for you, I care about what you say, not the way that you say it. The problem with the 'I'm right - you're wrong' argument Roth' is that I can say exactly the same about you! The whole point of a site like T2W is that we exchange ideas and learn from one another. I'm very happy to listen to you and learn from your experiences and, if I'm convinced that you're right and I'm wrong, I WILL come out and say so. One thing I won't do is to call you silly names and make silly threats simply because you don't share my views. Are there any circumstances under which you feel you could respond in kind?

try addressing your comments regarding the tick showing equities making lowers highs when i have proved this to be total gibberish?.
The chart speaks for itself and needs no further commenbt from me. Perhaps you would care to explain why the Tick is clearly making lower highs while the ES is making higher highs?

maybe if you actually listened to me you would learn something, maybe make a few extra quid.
As I've already stated, I'm very happy to listen to you and if you can help me make a few extra quid - I'd be very grateful! But, all I ask is that you stop being offensive and show me a fraction of the respect I have for you. Is that really such a big ask?

all you have done is claim i am missing your point, which is a classic trick for anyone who has been proven wrong, along with nit picking at grammar etc.
If you've read any of my 2,500 plus posts on T2W, you'll soon gather that I don't go in for games, riddles and tricks. I leave that to 'The Expert' and his ilk. You do indeed appear to be missing my point but, luckily, a solution is at hand, kindly provided by Fulcrum Trader in his excellent post. So, ignore me and read that instead. He provides greater clarity and detail in a single post than I've been able to provide in a dozen or so efforts.

anyway frankly i don't know why i get caught up in these slagging matches with total rank amateurs, i couldn't care less if you don't know what your doing, more money for me at the end of the day i guess.
Your definition of an amateur appears to be someone who doesn't agree with you. Well, by that definition, then yes, I am indeed a rank amateur. Of the two of us, you appear to engage in rather more of these 'slagging matches' than I do. One reason for this might be that most people on T2W are idiots and fools etc. Have you considered any other possible explanations?

que your post of claiming i cant see the tree's for the forrest, and bears **** in the woods and bla bla without actually addressing anything.
You've made it plain that simply because I have a different opinion to you that I'm a fool, an idiot, a rank amateur and various other things besides. That's fine. And, to be fair, I don't claim to be the sharpest tool in the box. Sadly, most - if not all - of the ideas that I contribute regarding the way the markets function aren't my own. Additionally, as you correctly point out: "there is a handful of real traders on this site, trading for a living on big account, just a handful." I happen to know that Fulcrum Trader falls into this very category and that, broadly speaking, he is more aligned to my way of thinking on this issue than to your way of thinking. If everybody but everybody agreed 100% with your position, then I'd be concerned. But, as his post demonstrates, this isn't the case. Call me all the names you want if that makes you feel better but, in the event that you decide to address the points made by Fulcrum Trader, please afford him the respect he deserves, even though he's expressed a view that is in stark contrast to your own.
Tim.
 
Timsk mate you don't make money trading so why are you arguing your point so hard? Surely you're views and approach must be wrong or you would be cashing in, no?
If your arguments in this thread are purely academic or if it's some sort of quasi-regurgitation of something you read somewhere you should say so because the observations of someone who doesn't know what they are doing (as your trading record suggests) aren't really worth much.
 
scose

The debate as it's developed is about understanding the market and the forces in play that move it. It's not about who is making money and who isn't.

I understand how a car engine works, but that doesn't necessarily make me a good driver. Conversely, I know plenty of good drivers who haven't a clue what goes on under the bonnet.

jon
 
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