Good exit, but why not reverse if you're convinced it won't go any higher? That would have convinced us you were a guru.
Good exit, but why not reverse if you're convinced it won't go any higher? That would have convinced us you were a guru.
Hi Ross Spur
I was not convinced it wouldn't go any higher but earlier movement of the Dow (mainly in the early hours of the morning), suggested it was not safe to expect it to break 10260 when in fact it had rejected this opportunity a number of times previously. If you look at my trade this morning when I opened a long at 10237 and closed the position by selling at 10247 shortly after, you will note that the Dow went on to 10,305 so l lost a fair amount by closing early. However it did not bother me because I did what I felt was right at the time. I waited quite some time for the Dow to fall back before I went long again but I still had memories of the problems the Dow seemed to have trying to break through 10250+ and I wasn't willing to take the risk so I closed again. If my inital trend indicator suggests a Long then that is the way I trade at anytime during the day.
Also while this was going on I listened to a charting expert on CNBC who was categoric the Dow was going down to 10150 and further. He did not give a timescale (that I heard - my tv is in another room to my computer room) but it played on my mind and when I got the opportunity to get out at 10,250 ish I was glad.
It does not take much to make a case for a complete collapse of the Dow and I do not want to be caught in a Long if that happens.
I do hope this makes sense, tonight has seen the consumption of a bottle of chardonay and the world is all rosy.
Regards
Mobanded
Hi
At the begining of Day 3 my system is reflecting a personal profit of £520 or 52 pips.
I would guess it is no surprise that my system is indicating a down day for the Dow (the whole financial world seems to be shouting it out). However, I am going to use my personal override (my mind) to wait for a pullback before I make a Short trade.
Ideally I would like to go short at 10140/10130 but I may have missed the boat.
So my indicator is go Short the Dow at 10096 - 9.01 am.
Mobanded
At the begining of Day 3 my system is reflecting a personal profit of £520 or 52 pips.
I would guess it is no surprise that my system is indicating a down day for the Dow (the whole financial world seems to be shouting it out). However, I am going to use my personal override (my mind) to wait for a pullback before I make a Short trade.
Ideally I would like to go short at 10140/10130 but I may have missed the boat.
So my indicator is go Short the Dow at 10096 - 9.01 am.
Mobanded
Hi Ross Spur
I 'm with you - as I said earlier I am always wary about Financial type announcements in the States, especially at (1pm and 3pm UK time) and opening times (2.30pm Uk time)
For personal reasons I do not want this short scenario because it plays havoc with other investments - I haven't yet got the guts to apply my daily system to long term investments = now that would really get me sweating (but it is DEFINITELY a non-starter).
Regards
Mobanded
Hi
Sorry, but can't resist the red text.
If anyone Shorted the Dow at 10096 this morning , it should have been a very profitable day. At one point a profit of 100 pips could have been taken.
Unfortunately, for me
, my laptop went down and I spent the day trying to fix it.Never mind, tomorrow is another day.
Regards
Mobanded
Hi
Sorry, but can't resist the red text.
If anyone Shorted the Dow at 10096 this morning , it should have been a very profitable day. At one point a profit of 100 pips could have been taken.
Unfortunately, for me
Never mind, tomorrow is another day.
Regards
Mobanded
Hi Mobanded.
Why don't you get two laptops. Also it helps if you have batteries charged and mobile internet. You can get all that for the price of a missed trade.
If nothing else it's good to have SB company's telephone number, so if everything else fails you can phone them and trade that way.
Hi Ross Spur
Sorry for not being clear and for the late response. I was not in the market at all, and the reason was my broke down computer. Isn't there something out there about a poor workman blaming his tools!!
Tomorrow is another challenge.
Regard
Mobanded
Hi Bedsit
Sorry for the late response.
I have a desktop and two laptops (I am too lazy to carry them up and down stairs). Anyhow the Lenovo problem is resolved (after a complete format and reinstallation of the software) and this was what I was concentrating on instead of the Dow.
I have phone details of my SB but use it only if I think they have done me. My trading is heavily reliant on having access to the one minute Dow charts.
Thankfully the Lenovo T400 is up and rolling again.
Regards
Mobanded
Not looking good at the moment, but we could get a bounce off 10,000 if the news is less grim later... On the other hand, if the US figures are bad your account might be blown, but don't say you weren't warned.
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Mo,
Just to point out some standard stats on your 4 completed trades so far:
Your average win = 13pips
Thus your risk:reward is = 200 : 13 or 1 : 0.065
Thus to be just profitable with this system you need a win rate of 94%, assuming every time you have a loser (and your account is wiped), you refund it again.
A 94% win rate betting on the Dow will be an interesting target!
I would like to point out that so far your strategy seems to let losers run, and cuts winners short...?!
Just to point out some standard stats on your 4 completed trades so far:
Your average win = 13pips
Thus your risk:reward is = 200 : 13 or 1 : 0.065
Thus to be just profitable with this system you need a win rate of 94%, assuming every time you have a loser (and your account is wiped), you refund it again.
A 94% win rate betting on the Dow will be an interesting target!
I would like to point out that so far your strategy seems to let losers run, and cuts winners short...?!
Yes -- maths and rational thinking seem to be conspicuously absent. Bad home sales fig at 3 could be Mob's undoing.
Hi Leonarda
I hear what you saying but I am determined to follow my system through. At this precise moment with the Dow at about 10,000 (6.08 pm) I am losing about £200 or 20 points since last Friday (and bearing in mind that yesterday I was sidetracked into sorting out a computer problem rather than following my system which would have produced a further profit), I do not think I am doing badly.
Statistics do very little for me, at the end of the day whether or not I have made a profit is my main criteria.
A few more days (assuming I don't go bust) is all that you will have to suffer from me and I still expect to make a profit.
Regards
Mobanded
Hi Ross Spur
I don't think we will ever agree about what I am doing, so I am happy to agree to disagree.
Bad home sales didn't get me and it looks like the Dow has been rising eversince.
I just wonder; do you think the Dow may have bottomed today? I am thinking it could be upwards and onwards from hereon (until Friday anyhow, when more statistics are released).
Regards
Mobanded
ps - I am still long at 10073 (slightly different to what I published).
Hi Leonarda
My strategy is to use an indicator for the Dow direction; a trigger to make the trade; an hypothetical but nevertheless realistic stop loss of 200 points; and finally, to sit back and wait for a profit to be made!
Regards
Mobanded
I really have no idea whether the Dow bottomed today. Could be more carnage this week if tomorrow's unemployment figures disappoint and Bernanke admits that a recovery is still a long way off.
Sorry to keep saying the same thing, but that wouldn't matter much if you were using stops and were prepared to accept small losses when you got it wrong.
btw, you must have been pretty close to an automatic stop-out on that spike down.
