From: Paul Miller [mailto
[email protected]]
Sent: 14 June 2010 11:20
To: Paul Miller Gmail (Private)
Subject: SOM Update (Mid June 2010)
Note: This email has been sent as blind copies to a distribution list of 120 + UK Shareholders of Spirit on Media Group PLC.
Bcc: All Spirit on Media Directors
David Hirst
Paul Morton
Dear Investors All
SOM Update (Mid June 2010)
Company accounts.
A number of our investors have asked when the Company’s audited accounts will be made public. Communications with Companies House has resulted in an extended deadline of 1st July. The Company’s accountants are Mazars, who are a big international firm of accountants and auditors. They have the figures and they have been in touch with Companies House and they should submit the audited accounts before 1st July, which is the extended deadline with Companies House.
However, it should be said that in just the same way that tax returns must be submitted no later than January for the year ended the previous April, so the audited accounts for SOM have to be submitted no later than 4th March for the year ended the previous September. The accounts being submitted are therefore for the period September 2008 to September 2009. This will not contain much useful information. The accounts for this year, which will be much more revealing, will be submitted before 4th March 2011.
Company earnings, value and share price
Of course, last year’s audited accounts, being so early in the Company’s history, will not give the satisfactory valuation answers that some of you seek. So, to give you an idea of the Company’s present standing, I list some basic unaudited figures as follows:
• Current monthly revenue from Equi8 alone annualised is $5 million per year.
• Current monthly revenue from SOM Group plc as a whole (not including Das Vierte) annualised is €7 million per year.
• Current monthly revenue from Das Vierte TV annualised is €30 Million per year
• Total annualised net income from all sources is about €10 million.
Given 120 million SOM shares, the above figures give earnings per share of just over €0.08. Given also a Price to Earning ratio (P/E Ratio) for the media industry of 10 (substantially more for the gambling industry) that would give a “Book Price” or estimated value of €0.08 x 10 = €0.80 per share right now.
• Current active users of Equi8 are 10,000 to 12,000 per month
• There has been an average increase of 1000 active users per month over the last 12 months.
• Average monthly bet per active user is €450 which at 14% commission on all bets gives an annualised revenue of about €7.5 million
• This has been achieved with virtually no marketing at all.
Reasonable forecasting
With a fully funded marketing campaign, an active user base of 200,000 worldwide by the end of 2012 is conjecture but would seem to be a very conservative figure. Nevertheless such numbers would produce an annual gross turnover of more than €1 billion. This in my opinion is a reasonable and conservative forecast. What do you think? After all, 200,000 people among billions worldwide is really only miniscule. On these figures 14% revenue from the €1 billion, after deduction of expenses and with a P/E ratio of 10 give a share price in excess of €20.
Institutional investors
There are a number of institutions and wealthy individuals in the Horseracing and Sports fraternities who are very much interested in investing in SOM. Numerous meetings are being arranged for the last 2 weeks of June 2010 in an effort to raise the c Eu5 Million Mezzanine Funding required to expand the equi8 business. In addition the investments from the Australian listed company and major casino operator are still very much on track for July 2010. All these business partnerships will benefit equi8 from a strategic alliance perspective as well as the investment funding.
We should understand that due diligence processes are not just matters of picking up the phone and asking someone’s opinion. It is a much more involved and professional operation than that. It is a matter of employing investigative lawyers or similar to look into every aspect and produce a comprehensive report. For example SOM’s due diligence into Das Vierte prior to its purchase culminated in a 78 page legal report and took over 2 months to complete.
It is worth noting at this point that we have no control whatever over how long these processes will take. We cannot know when we will receive the first investment. It could be weeks or it could be months. However, incentives are in place for the investments to be made before the 31st July and also it should be remembered that there is wealth out there urgently looking for a home. Consider these two points:
1. In the present financial climate, first the banking crisis now the Euro crisis, where can big money go in relative safety to earn big money? With bank rates at all time lows around 0.5% and company dividends reduced, where can the spare money be invested to best advantage?
2. SOM is no longer just a good idea worthy of investment or an emerging company that is likely to make it. It has already emerged. It is already earning profits and it has its infrastructure in place and is ready to expand. All investment is, of course, a risk but investing in SOM at this stage is as close to risk free as it is possible to get but also with potential for huge reward being almost certain. This is why there is such interest among other potential investors. This is why previously mentioned jockey is on the phone nearly every day. These people are not fools.
Thus we can say with confidence that SOM really is close to substantial Mezzanine Funding and probably sooner rather than later.
Current share price
Although it has been said over and over again that the current share price is truly meaningless and does not reflect the value of SOM, many of our investors just cannot get away from the idea that their fortunes are closely allied to the price they see on the stock market. I even receive pages of trades and quotes on an almost daily basis. So, it seems, I must give more explanation for the very low (but currently irrelevant) share price.
The original shareholders of Caribbean Island Traders (CIT) were issued with 2.2 million SOM shares. We do not know exactly how many they still hold but estimate about 1 million. During the period from the release of the trading restriction on these shares up to now they have gradually sold some of these shares. In addition we have also had to contend with outside parties shorting the stock, the illegal sale of restricted stock and some improper Market Making activities. All of this has had an adverse effect upon the share price. Recently and because of the expiry of selling restrictions, the CIT’s have been simply dumping the stock. They place sell orders with their broker which is then entered on the Market Makers books. The Market Maker sees the sell orders but no buy orders and so reduces the price to attract buyers.
We believe there may be about 500,000 shares currently in circulation. Because there are so few and because the price is so low, the cost of buying or selling the shares is very small. For example 100,000 shares traded at €0.05 is just €5000. At this stage with so few shares for trading, a relatively small value order can have a dramatic effect on the price. Although there can be any number of orders on the Market Makers books, there cannot be a trade which is one sided. Every time a trade goes through there is both a seller and a buyer. So, when you see 250,000 shares traded not only did the CIT dump them but someone bought them at the current very low price.
Someone shrewd clearly knows the value of the stock and is buying. If that were not true, there would be no trades. Just consider it, the CIT’s are dumping now but someone is buying. What will happen when we get the first institutional investment and begin the marketing campaign? Obviously, the share price will naturally rise to its true value very quickly because no one will then want to sell and there will be real demand for SOM shares in the marketplace. There will be buy orders, a lack of sell orders and the Market Maker will have to increase the price accordingly.
Your turn
There is nothing to stop any of our investors with the ready cash from placing their own buy orders through a broker. You just need a stockbroker who can deal with the Frankfurt Open Market. Buying at €0.20 and within weeks the price is at €0.80 means that there is a value increase of 4 times. Even if it took 2 years 400% would be an excellent return. However, we are expecting a share price of perhaps €5 next year (who can say but it is not an unreasonable expectation) then the return would be 25 times or 2,500%.
I cannot give anyone financial advice because I am not licensed so I am not advising you but what I can say is what I personally would do if I had the available cash. I would certainly see this as an opportunity and take it. Buy orders “at market” will inevitably drive up the price so I would also be careful to place a buy order with a limit on the price to avoid having to pay a higher price than expected. Purchases of SOM stock from the market in small lots at prices up to Eu 0.35 represent excellent value for money and would also greatly assist the Company with its fund raising activities as potential investors will notice the rise in stock price. Your efforts will therefore have a very positive knock on effect.
If you decide to take this opportunity it will certainly help the share price by taking out the CIT stock dumpers and therefore relieving the selling pressure. SOM would mop up these shares if it had the finance to do so but the Company needs its cash for business operations. Therefore SOM have said that any investor wishing to do this will also receive a bonus of 10% stock. For example if you bought 1000 shares you would get 100 extra. This is provided there is proof of purchase and the offer is only open until 30th June but claimable up to the 31st July.
I will try to find out a suitable broker who can and will handle this. I am informed Saxo Bank may be suitable. In any event, I will let you know as soon as I find out. If any of you have a broker that you know will handle this, please inform me so that I may inform everyone else.
Share distribution
I really thought I had made it clear in the last update that although all trading restrictions WILL expire on 30th June, investors will not receive their shares or be able to trade on 1st July because it is not administratively possible. Let me try to explain again:
The facts are:
1. SOM intends to hand over all shares to a nominated stockbroker just as soon as that can be arranged. The broker we had in mind is a bit slow and so others are being consulted too. Once contracts are in place, the actual handover of shares will also take administrative time.
2. The shares will continue to reflect a false value until the Mezzanine Funding has been obtained for equi8, the Das Vierte acquisition completed and SOM have commenced their marketing campaign. So even if you did have your shares earlier you could not currently sell them for a reasonable price.
3. Currently, there are so few buyers that virtually no sell orders would be filled. This will remain the case until the marketing campaign is in full swing.
4. The current real value of the shares based on earnings per share x P/E ratio is around €0.80.
5. The marketing campaign cannot begin until Mezzanine Funding has been obtained in the region of €5 to €10 million. Following that, a buyback will be commenced to relieve those investors who are desperate to sell.
6. A buyback is planned through the Nominated Broker to relieve selling pressure and allow the share price to rise.
7. Mezzanine Funding seems to be very close now. There is a great deal of interest and due diligence processes ongoing.
Once again, I cannot give a time when these things will happen. It depends on when we receive the Mezzanine Funding and when the nominated stockbroker is ready to sign contracts. We have no control over these things other than to offer incentives. So, when these events will happen, your guess is as good as mine. I do, however, think sooner rather than later.
As soon as we get our first major investment, I will let you know.
As soon as we have struck a deal with a nominated broker I will let you know.
Kind Regards,
Paul Miller.
UK Investor Relations Representative
Spirit on Media Group plc
Tel: +44 (0) 2392 470294
Email:
[email protected]
Disclaimer:
I have complete confidence in the Spirit On Media operation. This is based on a detailed and ongoing analysis that satisfies me to the extent that I have invested heavily in the operation. Because of this, I freely give my service as the UK Investor Relations Representative in part to pass on opinion and information received and in part to assist the company with its Investor Relations. This is an official appointment but entirely voluntary and unpaid. Because all investments carry a degree of risk I offer no guarantee either express or implied in any communication verbal or written of any outcome whatever. Nevertheless, my opinion is that the risk of loss is now vanishingly small while the potential for huge reward is very great.
Old
Did Paul give you a set of the latest accounts? Today is the 16th of July.