spanish89's Daily Trading Journal!! Whooooo ;)

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i do apologise about over-complicating. didnt think there was anything too complex in there that pure logic cannot derive. i thought that was pretty close to the basics man.

Ivan
 
what happened yesterday was illogical in the futures markets (sht sterling) because they initially fell (indicating higher rates) when CPI came out at 3.3% which made sense but then rallied over 25 basis points when King said in his letter that he expects to see 4%. why? well because he said that instead of using interest rates to control inflatiuon he will rely on falling commodity prices and slowing growth to undershoot 4% and come back to target. that and the fact that sterling has collpased in the past few weeks and there is no volume. FTSE rallied on the reduced probability of a rate/series of rate hikes.
 
what happened yesterday was illogical in the futures markets (sht sterling) because they initially fell (indicating higher rates) when CPI came out at 3.3% which made sense but then rallied over 25 basis points when King said in his letter that he expects to see 4%. why? well because he said that instead of using interest rates to control inflatiuon he will rely on falling commodity prices and slowing growth to undershoot 4% and come back to target. that and the fact that sterling has collpased in the past few weeks and there is no volume. FTSE rallied on the reduced probability of a rate/series of rate hikes.

fair call, that explains the early rally. i dont follow uk market too closely. only the numbers as the fundamentals dont affect aus too much. but thats a smart move i must say. very smart. i think the US needs a man like King... full respect to that move. unless of course the commodities dont break, and he is wrong. however we have to really go against a lot of history,
 
it's the most stupid move in the history of stupid moves. he knows inflation is rife and to avoid wages spiralling he needs to raise rates now and not rely on the possibility of commodity prices falling along with the possibility of growth slowing and it feeding through to inflation and consumer spending. nobody saw this spike in oil or the collapse of the dollar and subsequent gold rally-what's to say it won't go further? the dynamics of global economics are changing right now and a close your eyes and hope policy doesn't wash. get rates up, squeeze the asset bubble, cause bankruptcies if necessary but get inflation out of the economy for the love of god.
 
i think that the regulatory bodies do more harm than good. as my mate said very well recently, "trading is rather simple at the moment, just short whenever bernanke opens his mouth". the thing is, a move like that anticipates that by the time a rate hike will actually effect the market, the bubble will burst. what is your i/r atm?

the problem in australia at the moment is that the central bank is telling that the fiscal policy needs to be tighter, and the government responds by spending more and cutting taxes. our problem is the lack of communication. obviously the characteristics of the english market are unique, but i still dont think they are that unique to disregard the kaynesian theory on this. i think the markets will go back to equilibrium in due time, and a rate hike will probably need to be reversed in the short term anyway. a lot of what-ifs in the economy at the moment and i think the real question we should be asking is how much harm would the central banks do if they hiked rates at the moment, in UK and in the US. i think US has went at least a percentage point too far. as i said before i dont know where you guys are in terms of i/r at the moment
 
i think that the regulatory bodies do more harm than good. as my mate said very well recently, "trading is rather simple at the moment, just short whenever bernanke opens his mouth". the thing is, a move like that anticipates that by the time a rate hike will actually effect the market, the bubble will burst. what is your i/r atm?

the problem in australia at the moment is that the central bank is telling that the fiscal policy needs to be tighter, and the government responds by spending more and cutting taxes. our problem is the lack of communication. obviously the characteristics of the english market are unique, but i still dont think they are that unique to disregard the kaynesian theory on this. i think the markets will go back to equilibrium in due time, and a rate hike will probably need to be reversed in the short term anyway. a lot of what-ifs in the economy at the moment and i think the real question we should be asking is how much harm would the central banks do if they hiked rates at the moment, in UK and in the US. i think US has went at least a percentage point too far. as i said before i dont know where you guys are in terms of i/r at the moment


Ivan, Gooseman,

I concur with your views and essentially they are more or less the same. That is inflation has taken over as higher priority than maintaining economic growth. Excess liquidity and demand needs to be removed from the market. Only two choices:

1. Control demand with taxes... (better choice imo)
2. Control supply side with interest rate rises...

As politicians are pretty useless with respect to doing right thing - ie don't get elected if you raise taxes,

Only other alternative is to raise interest rates. However, given the pain many average citizens are feeling with the prospect of rising prices and good few losing homes plus many more struggling with home payments - not to mention the Banks and sub-prime losses...

It might just be better to do nothing and take the cautious route. This is what I would do. If taxes fail to rise and inflation continuous along with commodity and energy prices then yes interest rates will rise.

One last comment - INFLATION can be good for the economy. Look at the pros:
1. Debt reduced (ie cost of money, interest rates approaching zero and hopefuly negative value. r=5%, i=4% --> real rates= 1%)

2. House prices will sooner or later go up in line with inflation (ie house price adjustment will be quicker)

3. Producers able to pass on rising costs

4. Wage pressures maintained given doom and gloom and lay offs.

One other factor in these days is to prevent a strong pound so we can compete in the export markets. Raising rates to stifle inflation is likely to damage BoP prospects and probably further contribute to domestic inflation.

It's all very messy with little chance of any way out with out a great deal of pain... :cry:
 
Aloha people, today was uite good trading wise...

:cheesy:


I cashed in on my hedge 2x yesterday evening, and then wokeup today in £75 profit.

(Was in 95 earlier would i was tried so didnt wakeup till lunchtime) :LOL::rolleyes:


I lost abit during day with some foolish scalping due to boredem and then got drunk cos had some sad news, but left tading for the day then for just £31 profit at end of day, so not amazing, but not bad at all.



Dow closed down very low again after big loss and oils on the up, so ive shorted ftse futures 5mins before dow closed, so when ftse opens lower tomorrow il be in decent profit. :cheesy::devilish:



Contract Order # Date/Time Buy/Sell £/tic Tic Size Price Profit/Loss

FTSE 100 -Daily Cash

FTSE 100 -Daily Cash 5346179 18/06/2008 14:50 Buy 1 1 5770
FTSE 100 -Daily Cash 5346224 18/06/2008 14:54 Sell 1 1 5766 £-4.00

FTSE.100 Fut - 19 Jun 08


FTSE.100 Fut - 19 Jun 08 5348860 18/06/2008 20:46 Sell 1 1 5763
FTSE.100 Fut - 19 Jun 08 5348861 18/06/2008 20:47 Buy 1 1 5769 £-6.00

FTSE.100 Fut -.18 Jul 08


FTSE.100 Fut -.18 Jul 08 5343475 17/06/2008 16:35 Sell 1 1 5874
FTSE.100 Fut -.18 Jul 08 5345745 18/06/2008 13:42 Buy 1 1 5802 £72.00
FTSE.100 Fut -.18 Jul 08 5346001 18/06/2008 14:24 Sell 1 1 5786
FTSE.100 Fut -.18 Jul 08 5346005 18/06/2008 14:24 Sell 1 1 5786
FTSE.100 Fut -.18 Jul 08 5346005 18/06/2008 14:24 Buy 1 1 0 £Stop Loss Move
FTSE.100 Fut -.18 Jul 08 5346159 18/06/2008 14:47 Buy 1 1 5796 £-10.00
FTSE.100 Fut -.18 Jul 08 5346248 18/06/2008 14:56 Sell 1 1 5781
FTSE.100 Fut -.18 Jul 08 5346268 18/06/2008 14:56 Sell 1 1 5781
FTSE.100 Fut -.18 Jul 08 5346268 18/06/2008 14:58 Buy 1 1 0 £Stop Loss Move
FTSE.100 Fut -.18 Jul 08 5346534 18/06/2008 15:32 Buy 1 1 5772 £9.00
FTSE.100 Fut -.18 Jul 08 5346564 18/06/2008 15:33 Sell 1 1 5763
FTSE.100 Fut -.18 Jul 08 5346904 18/06/2008 15:46 Buy 1 1 5761 £2.00
FTSE.100 Fut -.18 Jul 08 5347147 18/06/2008 15:57 Sell 1 1 5763
FTSE.100 Fut -.18 Jul 08 5347772 18/06/2008 16:53 Buy 1 1 5795 £-32.00

FTSE.100 Fut -.19 Sep 08

FTSE.100 Fut -.19 Sep 08 5343476 09/06/2008 12:26 Buy 1 1 5946
FTSE.100 Fut -.19 Sep 08 5346266 18/06/2008 14:58 Sell 1 1 0 £Stop Loss Move
 

Dow closed down very low again after big loss and oils on the up, so ive shorted ftse futures 5mins before dow closed, so when ftse opens lower tomorrow il be in decent profit. :cheesy::devilish:



lucky for you then that all futures traders around the world weren't in on the little known secret that the Dow closed down heavily. You'll make a killing.

UTB
 
lucky for you then that all futures traders around the world weren't in on the little known secret that the Dow closed down heavily. You'll make a killing.
Hola Spanish - my main man!
This is quite brilliant. In the six years or so that I've been studying the markets, I've never noted the correlation between the DOW and FTSE. How unobservant am I, doh. Thanks for the tip; next time there's a really strong up / down move in the DOW, I'm gonna bet everything on the FTSE doing the same and, along with you, I'll make an absolute killing.
Cheers mate! :D
Tim.
P.S. Ignore people like the blades - they're just jealous of your market savvy genius!
 
Hola Spanish - my main man!
This is quite brilliant. In the six years or so that I've been studying the markets, I've never noted the correlation between the DOW and FTSE. How unobservant am I, doh. Thanks for the tip; next time there's a really strong up / down move in the DOW, I'm gonna bet everything on the FTSE doing the same and, along with you, I'll make an absolute killing.
Cheers mate! :D
Tim.
P.S. Ignore people like the blades - they're just jealous of your market savvy genius!

Timsk,

You hadn't noticed the correlation, because there's a delay in the response. After the DOW tanks, the FTSE allows traders time to get home from Tesco's to place their trades. It's good like that.


UTB
 
Timsk,

You hadn't noticed the correlation, because there's a delay in the response. After the DOW tanks, the FTSE allows traders time to get home from Tesco's to place their trades. It's good like that.


UTB

lmao hahahaha niiiiiceee :0 great call:LOL::LOL::LOL::cheesy:
 
Ivan, Gooseman,

I concur with your views and essentially they are more or less the same. That is inflation has taken over as higher priority than maintaining economic growth. Excess liquidity and demand needs to be removed from the market. Only two choices:

1. Control demand with taxes... (better choice imo)
2. Control supply side with interest rate rises...

As politicians are pretty useless with respect to doing right thing - ie don't get elected if you raise taxes,

Only other alternative is to raise interest rates. However, given the pain many average citizens are feeling with the prospect of rising prices and good few losing homes plus many more struggling with home payments - not to mention the Banks and sub-prime losses...

It might just be better to do nothing and take the cautious route. This is what I would do. If taxes fail to rise and inflation continuous along with commodity and energy prices then yes interest rates will rise.

One last comment - INFLATION can be good for the economy. Look at the pros:
1. Debt reduced (ie cost of money, interest rates approaching zero and hopefuly negative value. r=5%, i=4% --> real rates= 1%)

2. House prices will sooner or later go up in line with inflation (ie house price adjustment will be quicker)

3. Producers able to pass on rising costs

4. Wage pressures maintained given doom and gloom and lay offs.

One other factor in these days is to prevent a strong pound so we can compete in the export markets. Raising rates to stifle inflation is likely to damage BoP prospects and probably further contribute to domestic inflation.

It's all very messy with little chance of any way out with out a great deal of pain... :cry:

i agree with that. however the only thing i must question is the link between inflation and wage pressures. inflation can be 200% as long as wage increases are more and its not painful, however when CPI creeps up it usually forgets about wages which means less disposable income.

i think that the market is not ready for i/r rises, other than america which has been way overcut. i agree that the subprime crisis is far from over and that an increase will cause more downside in the banking sector, which is pretty much back to its march lows..
 
I traded that.

Sold Dec at 68.

Took one tick.

What a prat.

Something funny about those figures though. Don't trust them one bit tbh.
 
has spanish taken the day off?

his web-chat-room is full of tumbleweed today, so far.
 
Lol... financial times is a bit slow ;)

If you want to trade the news you need a real time news feed. E.g. retail sales today comes out at 9:30... by 9:30:01 automated systems will have started hitting markets, people like me's brains will be processing information and hitting it in another second, salesmen will call up smart money who will be hitting markets within a minute or two...

E.g. Bloomberg/Reuters.

Also a squawkbox (not the kind gooseman uses) where someone reads out other bits of news you might not have seen.

E.g. Ransquawk, sigma etc
 
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