Some of my trades, forecasts

[4xpipcounter]

Re: Eur/gbp

This pair not only hit .8254, but continued to the WS3 at .8227, and then spiked down to .8201. I will be looking for a long entry at .8217 or lower.

I get the feeling this pair is bound for a 61.8% continuation of my WS2 at .8289. If that is the case, then we have an ideal entry to go long at the MS2 at .8254. We could get a move all the way back to the MS1 at .8359.

 

[4xpipcounter]

Re: Gbp/jpy

This pair is still being continaed by the tenken, which is still on the edge of the cloud, so my view does not change to see a move to the kijun at 132.01. I took today's short out when I saw momentum caving as it was approaching my WS1 at 133.65. It missed it within 2 points, and I took it out at 133.76, spread included, so it amounted to +37 pips.

The tenken is intercepting a sideways move into the cloud, therefore, we should see a move to the daily kijun at 132.01. Count me in on this one. Entry on a short is 134.13. I hit it perfectly on the 1-hour tenken.

 

[4xpipcounter]

Cable and euro

There are some abnomallies going on.
You will not hardly ever hear me say this, but I bailed on my entry order on cable. I did not think my WR1 would contain it. I saw cable whistling up the rail like a freight train. I ducked it out of the wAs I'm writing price is camping out at the DR1 at 1.5004. The next R is my WR2a at 1.5016. Contianment is the area of 1.5046 and 1.5052, which is the WR2 and the DR2 respectively.
There are a couple of things with the euro I'm considering right now. Price popped out of the 4-hour cloud. That's bullish. The problem is the tenken is strongly divergent fronm the kijun. It also worked its way above the 200MA, which is ear-popping elevation in a recovery of an UP. The other thing is the daily kijun at 1.2172 has not been touched yet. This plane is probably going to fly into London and fly out the opposite way. DR2 is 1.2384 ,WP is 1.2429, and DR3 is 1.2446. It seems a stretch the latter 2 will be hit.

 

[4xpipcounter]

Just for the record, I went short at 1.4987. My day is ending, I'm too tired to try and use conjecture. All I know is I'm waking up in the morning to some pips.

 

[4xpipcounter]

After getting a firm bounce off my WR1, I decided cable was going to explore new heights, so I took it out at 1.4967 for +20 pips.
I will be gone most of the day, as I'm travelling. I'm setting an entry short for my WR2a at 1.5014, just to be suer I get back in. Most lkely, hte pair should hit my WR2 at 1.5046.

 

[4xpipcounter]

Usd/jpy

Watch for a reaction from this pair. For the last 7 hours it has been camped around my MS1 at 89.23. There does not appear to be the momentum that is needed to carry this pair for at least the proper bounce from this point. If that is the case look for a contiuation of the 38.2% between the monthly reference points to 88.56, which is also the WS3. That area should be continament for quite awhile. It will mark a full continuation of the WS2 at 89.40. It should mark at least a reversal to 89.40, if not 90.49. I'm ready to go long on the pair if it hits 88.56.

 

[4xpipcounter]

Ichimoku IV

The chinkou is plotted 26 candles in back of the current price. That can easily be seen by going to the current price on this chart, count back 26 candles, and it will be that point you see the end of the chinkou.
It has been my theory that the reason the chinkou is plotted 26 candles backwards is that 26 is generally the number that refers to a complete cycle, even though there is a deviance on all currency pairs. Ichimoku strives to create balance and price equillibrium, and that is why I have theorized that is the reason for the way chinkou is plotted. If someone has a better argument to my theory, I'd like to know it.
I've often stated that you do not need to draw trendlines when you have ichimoku working for you. This is because ichimoku spots trendlines before they are drawn, as well as chart S&R's. The particular property of ichimoku that bears that out is the chinkou. This may be, in part, a bias of mine speaking because I am not a big proponent of trendlines. Everytime someone shows me a positive situation on a TL, I can show them the opposite.
The chinkou demonstrates when the trend is picking up speed or if it has gone sideways for awhile, the chinkou will point out the reversal point. Plain and simple, once the chinkou has crossed under the candle, that is a signal to go short, and vice versa. Once the trend has gone, i.e, up, and then gone sideways for awhile, the chinkou is naturally going to have a chance to catch up to the candles. Once it has corssed under the candles the channel has been broken to the downside, adn it is a sign of the reversal.
In summary when you have the tenken, kijun, components of the cloud all matching along with the chinkou, that is the confluence of events you need within one indicator. Another nice thing is, all of them do not need to match, but it is pretty much a done deal when all of them do.
I'm open to question and comments concerning the ichimoku cloud if anyone has any.
Getting ready! I'm go to blow your mind. There are at least 2 people (more are coming) following my thread that we go back at least 3 years or more. They can vouch for this, even though I need no peripheral support, but my S&R's are simply the best (my bias). Coming up will be a seies on my S&R's. Keep in mind, they are plotted on my chart at the beginning of the TF--weekly, monthly, daily. The yearlies and decade's I have to do myself on my software I have in my office (My wife calls it the cave, because Tucker and I spend a lot of time in there.)

 

[JahDave]

hey pip, the default time periods in my software for the ichi are 9, 26, and 52, is that what you use?

 

[4xpipcounter]

Hi Dave. You got it. Default has always suffuced.

 

[Masonz]

Paul I got 2 trades today using your S&R's. I went long at 1.4887, and exited at 1.4954. I went long again at 1.4960 and exited at 1.4996. +103 pips.
So far so good on your aussie pick. I'm up 157 pips so far. I closed my 1st position for about 20 pips. That 2nd position is paying for vacation this year.
Could I get in now for cable if I don't mind a 100-pip pullback?
Have you heard from Femi? I thought he was coming over here, too.

 

[4xpipcounter]

Gbp/aud

The pair just hit my WR3 at 1.7354. I went short.

 

[4xpipcounter]

Aud/usd

I got tired of looking at this pair on my platform, so I checked it out. My WS2 is .8623, adn I got a spike through it, adn took it out at .8609. I had 3 positions on it-- +192, +82, -112, for a total of +162. That was not easy.
I might jump back in after it bounces back.

 

[4xpipcounter]

Zeph, I still think it is going to hit 1.5046 before it goes back. 1.5014 is the R on my "A" chart. That has not been hit yet.
Femi is in Kenya, Africa right now. It's been 3 weeks since I heard from him, and that is probably why.
Good to hear! I took a cursory glance at the charts and I see exactly where your entries were. I really get tickled when someone, like you, uses my S&R's to their advantage.
I'm got to post a series in this thread on them, just like I did in November '07 on my blog. They are my pride and joy.

 

[4xpipcounter]

Re: Gbp/aud

Well, that level won't be containment. I took it out at 1.7317, which is the 15-min tenken, for +25 pips, which includes the spread.
I got to get to bed, and this is one wild pair. Hopefully, when I wake up in the morning, it will be ready to go back. If not, then no big deal. There will always be other opportunities.

The pair just hit my WR3 at 1.7354. I went short.

 

[4xpipcounter]

Gbp/usd

I'm not satisfied in knowing this pair has actually taken off in its DOWN. I'm loooking to go long around 1.4842, which is the MR1.
Another potential support is the WP at 1.4862

 

[Alexbabwa]

can i ask what MR1/2 and WP is?

 

[4xpipcounter]

Yes, always feel free. M-monthly, W--Weekly, D--daily. Y--yearly. 1,2,3 are the levels of S or R within those TF's. Therefore, MR! would be the 1st resistance for the month. WP would be the weekly pivot, or the starting point of the week for the currency. I posted this week's S&R's somewhere on this thread. You can plot them on your chart just to verify them. I like to keep things forward looking, rather than report something in the rearview mirror.
This kind of cracks me up when I read someone's analysis that might say something like, "Price his x point and has gone sideways since." It's like I know where price was. I can look at a chart and figure that out for myself. I want to know where price will be in the future. That is how I can make a trading decision. That is why these are called "speculative" markets.

 

[4xpipcounter]

Gbp/usd

I missed the UP. Another reversal is impending, so I went short at 1.4931.

 

[4xpipcounter]

I'm having a hard time getting it right these days. I entered based on the candle hitting the bottom of the 15-min cloud and the candle hitting the kijun, which is above the tenken on the hourly. In addition, the bottom of the hourly was not hit, so it seems obvious that's where price action was headed along with the fact I was counting on the MR1 to be hit, which was also at the bottom of the cloud.
Enough of that. If this is the beginning of the final leg UP, then fine. I'll double up when price hits the circa 1.5046 area. If I got a headfake out of the cloud, then I'll have some nice pips before the day is out . Either way, it is a winning trade.

 

[4xpipcounter]

GBP/USD update

I didn't mean that comment in complaining. My trade did spin around on a dime. The only problem is it fell off while spinning. I'm still holding it. Containment is 1.5046. If it is not, there will still be a strong bounce there. I'll probably double up at that point. The only thing that will prevent this from being the consumate trade is if we get the bounce, then it reverses with a strong leg, and then takes off to the 1.52 level. I won't ride this that far. I will see momentum waning, and I'll be out with at least a net gain.
Whew! I'm glad I got out when I did on the aussie.

I'm having a hard time getting it right these days. I entered based on the candle hitting the bottom of the 15-min cloud and the candle hitting the kijun, which is above the tenken on the hourly. In addition, the bottom of the hourly was not hit, so it seems obvious that's where price action was headed along with the fact I was counting on the MR1 to be hit, which was also at the bottom of the cloud.
Enough of that. If this is the beginning of the final leg UP, then fine. I'll double up when price hits the circa 1.5046 area. If I got a headfake out of the cloud, then I'll have some nice pips before the day is out . Either way, it is a winning trade.