Some of my trades, forecasts

[4xpipcounter]

Aussie moves

I see we missed out on the necessary pullbacks for the AUD and its crosses The AUD/USD, AUD/CHF, and the EUR/AUD were 3 of the 8 pairs highlighted in red as ones that I specifically like more than others for entries this week. When their highlighted in red, picture them as blue light specials. Thsoe are the hot ones. What this means is I shift my focus to the 5 others. Even if we get a reversal fom aussie and its crosses, it would probably produce too volatile price action for me now to be interested.
Also, 8 might be hot, but there I still will not enter all 8 trades at one time. I could by lessening my margin. But I'd rather increase my margin and manage less positions.
Once my platform opens for the week, which will be 35 minutes from now, I plan on going long the EUR/CHF.

 

[4xpipcounter]

EUR/CHF trade

Entered long at 1.3144.

 

[4xpipcounter]

Gold weeklies

1242.46
1229.66
1222.35
1207.51
1200.09
1187.39

3 R's, and then the 3 S's--3,2,1 & 1,2,3, respectively

 

[4xpipcounter]

Gbp/usd

Cable is right now camping around cluster R in that 1.5584. If it breaks through there, then it is on to 1.5606, the WR1, and then possibly 1.5720. If 1.5720 is hit, then cable is on my hot list, as it should be fully ensconced back in the DOWN.

 

[4xpipcounter]

Loonie and cable

Watch for 1.6343, which is my MR1. We could get a strong bounce off it during London. The nice thing is in starting the week, it did not start with a bounce of this correction. Therefore, the correction is getting fully stretched. That full bounce would precipitate a full return to the DOWN. I'm going to say that also would be the favorable scenario.
That being the case, then it also looks doubtful that the GBP/USD is going to finish its correction.
I'm also thinking this put 1.0627 on the radar for the loonie with a possible strong reversal aat that point. If the latter happens, then cable could be in for another savage drop, provided the likely scenario for GBP/CAD holds up.
If this got confusing, then ask, and I'll try and clear it up.

 

[4xpipcounter]

GBP/JPY correction

Note: 131.52 should be 132.52
Daniel caught this in an e-mail for me. Thank-you!

 

[4xpipcounter]

EUR/AUD correction

Note: 146.90 should be 145.90
I think I flunked the test. Daniel also caught me here.

 

[guptabhk]

Re: Weekly Report--082210

Hi Paul
nice to see you started the old method of reporting analysis in the weekend for planning in advance for the next week . New addition hot pairs to be considered for next week is a good idea to filter other currencies and focus the choosy one. Even though i don't trade the cross currencies , I welcome your move that it will help others to decide their system of trading appropriate opportunities and appropriate stop loss as they come close to.
regards

 

[4xpipcounter]

Re: Weekly Report--082210

Hari, I was talking about you in a private forum about 2 hours before you posted your message. I knew you would enjoy the return of the WR. I'll try and keep it going. It used to take about 9 hours to do. This time it took 3 hours. BTW, I included gold, because I know you trade it. Also, the S&R's for this week are included in this thread somewhere.

Hi Paul
nice to see you started the old method of reporting analysis in the weekend for planning in advance for the next week . New addition hot pairs to be considered for next week is a good idea to filter other currencies and focus the choosy one. Even though i don't trade the cross currencies , I welcome your move that it will help others to decide their system of trading appropriate opportunities and appropriate stop loss as they come close to.
regards

 

[4xpipcounter]

The plight of the euro

After some ironic twists on the 1st day of the week, I'm very fortunate to have picked, as the new position for the week, one that is winning up to this point.
The aussie was not figured to spike 85 points in the favored direction to start the week. As expected, it added some volatile activity.
I'm content with my current positions, as I won't be looking for anymore this week, unless something closes quickly, or I have a sudden change of mind (lol).
The euro is now the currency to keep our eyes on. I was not expecting an intraday move lower, as it has now moved into the cloud. It was supported by the YS1 at 1.2640. If that support holds up, then what we have is a mere spike into the cloud, and we will get the expected retracement as forecasted, and I still expect to see. This will also have a profound effect on my EUR/CHF position, and the pump should be primed for the EUR/AUD, as it also had an unexpected intraday move south, but that was also caused by that sudden spike of the aussie, and combined with the events of the euro.
In essence, the same forecasted outlook remains.

 

[Metals trader]

Re: Weekly Report--082210

The pairs highlighted in red present the best trading opportunities for this week.
I have this whole analysis saved on my Word program if you want a copy via e-mail.

EUR/USD: The bounce has begin off the top of the daily cloud at 1.2682, and the pump is primed for a move back to 1.2962.

USD/JPY: The pair is headed further DOWN, but is moving too slow to produce a viable trading position. What would be nice is to see a move UP to 87.37. At that point, get ready to pull the short trigger. We will get some action at that point.

GBP/USD: This pair can't be trusted. It finally had a comfortable finish under the 1.5584 mark, which means it should be headed to 1.5447. There is still a lot of pressure on the downside, even though I'm still looking for the corrective move to circa 1.5700.
The difference in the views of the euro and cable is the reason euro and its crosses looks like a more sure thing this week than cable.

USD/CHF: Look for 1.0440 to present a shorting opportunity. The pair is on a slippery slope. 1.0358 should be taken out convincingly this week. After the hopeful correction takes place, we will see a return to 1.0294 this week, and then 1.0231, and a possible shot at 1.0169.

EUR/CHF: This pair has me licking my chops. It is also showing that recent Swissy strength is about to be delegated. This pair is off the charts (figure of speech). Current level is 1.3156. Find a place to enter long. 1.3380 is minimum expectation. 1.3792 is the high end. 1.3586 is the center of gravity. Make the center your target, and you should be safe.

AUD/USD: This one is still hot! Current level to .8974 is containment. The pair has its eyes on .8682, and even .8581. There is also a possibility for a move to .8465, but watch out for those lower levels. A strong reversal is impending.

USD/CAD: I'm expecting a range on this pair between 1.0433—1.0724. If 1.0724, or close to it is hit, then a strong reversal ensues. The exception to said range would happen only at the beginning of the week. We just had a clean bounce off my MR2 at 1.0512, which could lead the pair to MR1 at 1.0395.

NZD/USD: .7090 is the MS1. That area should be containment. The pair is ready for its leg DOWN before a strong recovery. In essence, it will make a great short to .6917--.6833, but do not become too infatuated by it.

EUR/GBP:We need either a strong reversal, or this pair is headed to never-never land. Due to the outlook of some of the euro and cable crosses, I would favor a strong reversal. It is hard to see much of a further drop for this pair, provided the scenario is right. Look for move UP to .8297--.8351.

EUR/JPY: This leg of the DOWN is exhausted. 108.59 is the MS2, which should be containment. Current level and 112.92 is the broad range channel it should be trapped in this week.

GBP/JPY: There is no resemblance to its cousin, the EUR/JPY, but the DOWN is coming to an end . The recovery should take us to the MS1 at 133.67, and then back in the DOWN for the possible last leg to 131.52, and then 131.68. There is a possibility for the pair to hit 130.00. If it does, then look out! The UP will turn maniacal. Once the DOWN is finish, R's on the reversal are 132.52, 133.36, 134.20, and 135.04. The 2 in the middle will be the favored targets.

CHF/JPY: The pair ended the week running into cluster R around the 83.00 level. We should see a move further DOWN, but overall, there are no likely favorable trading scenarios.

GBP/CHF:1.6142 is the 4-hour tenken, which should make for a good short opportunity, for what should be the last leg of this DOWN towards 1.5963. The reversal, as of now, should take us to 1.6159—1.6553, with 1.6356 being a more ideal target.

EUR/AUD: The pullback at the end of Friday was perfect for this pair. 1.4211 is the MS1. I would look for that to be containment, possibly for the entire week. Look for a place to get in, as this pair is headed to 1.4690—1.5187 on the next leg UP.

EUR/CAD: Another test of the top of the daily cloud would be nice for this pair, which is 1.3211. The pair need to get around the TK combo at 1.3370 and 1.3418, respectively, and then 1.3674 is in its sights. I would look for a channel to be maintained between the the of the cloud, and 1.3845. If the latter is hit, then it is an explosive reversal.

AUD/CAD: The recent peak at .9458 could be taken out, but .9495 has blow out implications, but not confirmed yet. For now, things look boring for this pair.

AUD/JPY: A slight correction could be in store, but even current level could be ideal for a short. Caution is advised. There could be a sharp reversal on the horizon. A move to 75.33, and even 74.45. but don't trust it beyond the latter.

NZD/JPY: The DOWN is about exhausted. A mild correction could be imminent, but that could lead into a broad range mild channel. 58.10 is a possibility, but not worth trading

CAD/JPY: This pair ended the week by bouncing off the MS2 at 81.33. A retracement to the circa area of the daily tenken at 82.26 to start the week is probably forthcoming. A wide range but mild correction is around the corner, but before that happens, this leg of the DOWN looks solid for 80.82—80.03

AUD/NZD: I originally thought this pair had a chance at 1.1980, but now, no chance. For the time being, it will be stuck in a channel that will range from 1.2441—1.2786.

GBP/AUD:This pair does not have the obviations its cousin, the EUR/AUD has. The circa area of 1.7303 should be containment on the low end. It will be that circa area we get a bounce, and it could go to 1.7944. OTOH, watch for a sudden u-turn. If it hits 1.7944, or even close, don't think about it. It becomes an excellent short. I don't think that scenario will unfold, as there is nothing obvious about this pair, other than the not so obvious move to the latter mentioned point.

GBP/CAD:This pair is waiting to explode downward, but my timing was wrong on the entry for the short. There is potential for a move upwards to 1.6603. To begin the week it could be priming itself for a corrective pullback, which could mean a dip far enough for maybe a small loss on the pair. This pair may scratch and pull its way higher, but there is still too much of a gravitational pull downward to not expect fireworks once its back in the DOWN

GBP/NZD: Like its cousin, the EUR/NZD, this pair is strange looking, but more definitive. Strong momentum points UP. A strong bear blowout is still impending. Look for a move this week to 2.1688, and possibly 2.1429. It could even move to 2.1170, but don't trust it. The reversal back in the UP could be vicious. I am currently short this pair and will be content to take it out at 2.1688.

NZD/CAD: This pair looks boring for this week, but still will provide a trading opportunity. The MP is .7456. That should be a nice entry for a DOWN that should make it to .7301. Other than that, it looks like a channel with the high end at .7510 and the low end at .7263. Trading the high end looks favorable, if it is the stronger of the moves you are looking for. Also, this week may not provide a choice.

NZD/CHF: This pair has entered the consolidation zone. There are better choices to trade. This really looks like a sleeper.

AUD/CHF: A move back to the bottom of the daily cloud at .9256 would make for an ideal entry on a short for this pair. It still has a ticket to keep traveling south. .9071 is a solid target before any substantial recovery will take place. As I peer into the future, containment for any retracement is .9500, and the correction should fall far short of that.

CAD/CHF: Swissy has been the strong boy, which is why its crosses has had strong trends. This one is no exception. A bounce back to parity would be nice for the next strong move DOWN. I mild correction lies in the future, but not until .9673--.9458 is hit.

EUR/NZD: It's too late for me to say this pair has hit a brick wall at 1.8192 (1.8188, actual peak.). Momentum is slightly UP for the pair, but that could quickly. Also, this pair knows how to move. It is fast! I do favor a strong return to the UP this week, but too many “if's” still revolve around this pair to get too excited or an entry.

Gold: The bulls have relented the LT control of gold. The peak established 7 weeks ago at 1264.96 should stay in place for quite awhile. At least 1176.98 should be containment on the low end.

good analysis 4x.
the only trade i saw today (but didnt take) was the EurJPy at 107.80.

 

[4xpipcounter]

Re: Weekly Report--082210

Thanks MT. The EUR/JPY was a bi-product of the behavior in the euro, which is why my containment level didn't contain. There is still plenty of week left for the euro to get its bearings together.
You probably did not miss anything with regards to a trade. What is probably happening now is a continuation to the WS2 at 107.55. After taking out the WS1 at 108.16, it seems to have energized.
BTW, as a further note, even though the GBP/CAD looks precarious, it still has been contained under the MR1 at 1.6343. As I mentioned in the WR, once it gets going, there will be a rush south.

good analysis 4x.
the only trade i saw today (but didnt take) was the EurJPy at 107.80.

 

[4xpipcounter]

Usd/chf

I mentioned in my WR to look for 1.0440 to be containment. 1.0424, which is the WR1 could be it. Regardless, this circa area looks good for a short.
I took my long position out at 1.0414, which is virtual breakeven. The position had been opened for a little over 3 weeks.

 

[Splitlink]

Sometimes price action is like bad little kids. You send them to the store, and instead of them coming straight home, they stop off at freinds' house, or they just like to mess around. Give them time. They will eventually come home. Traes are that way too. You enter the trade, you think the entry is perfect, then it spike the wrong way, or just decides to travel to the next S or R level. Sometimes they will take off in the right direction, momentum gives out, then reverses against you. Eventually, they all come home, and the trader gets to cash the pips.
Put a EUR/JPY chart next to the stock market if you want to see a similarity.

They all come home? Damned if all mine do. What do you feed them?

 

[4xpipcounter]

I had to think on that one. That was quite awhile ago.
Kids!? They all come home. They got a bed, food and all the luxuries of home.
The same goes for trades. If it goes against you, be patient. It's coming home to score some pips.
BTW, now that I'm a grandpa, they still come home, but they better bring their kids, or the door is locked. It gets lively here during the holidays. 6 kids and 14 grandkids. Oh yes, almost forgot. Tucker, too.

They all come home? Damned if all mine do. What do you feed them?

 

[Splitlink]

I had to think on that one. That was quite awhile ago.
Kids!? They all come home. They got a bed, food and all the luxuries of home.
The same goes for trades. If it goes against you, be patient. It's coming home to score some pips.
BTW, now that I'm a grandpa, they still come home, but they better bring their kids, or the door is locked. It gets lively here during the holidays. 6 kids and 14 grandkids. Oh yes, almost forgot. Tucker, too.

Ok, Grandpa! I have two grandkids.

Talking about no stops, in case you get a spike. That means that every bar must complete before you act, doesn't it? What bars do you use? I note that you were referring to a 4 hour chart at the beginning of the thread but I don't think that I could handle the wait.

 

[4xpipcounter]

If it is the 4-hour chart that is telling the story, then it is the one I'm paying attention to. As an example, if it hits the top of the 4-hour cloud, and one of my S&R's is there, and the stochastics is OS. It's time to jump in. I am not waiting for that 4-hour segment to complete itself. After the entry, then I might drop down to the 1-hour chart or 15-minute chart to see what it is doing. If a key S or R area was taken out convincingly, especially a confluence, then it may be time to admit I messed up, and look for a better entry.
Others are worth being patient with. As an example, the GBP/CAD has moved against me, but not that bad. It is going to be a huge move south, once it gets moving, so I'm just waiting.

Ok, Grandpa! I have two grandkids.

Talking about no stops, in case you get a spike. That means that every bar must complete before you act, doesn't it? What bars do you use? I note that you were referring to a 4 hour chart at the beginning of the thread but I don't think that I could handle the wait.

 

[4xpipcounter]

Here's a live example. Watch for a reaction on the part of the USD/CAD at 1.0639, which is my WR2, If it breaks that level, then we should get a strong reversal at 1.0702, which is my MR3.
I won't trade it, because I have enough trades up now, but just gives you something to look at. Also when the reversal happens, it will have a good effect on my GBP/CAD, as it is usually the CAD not the GBP that moves the GBP/CAD.

If it is the 4-hour chart that is telling the story, then it is the one I'm paying attention to. As an example, if it hits the top of the 4-hour cloud, and one of my S&R's is there, and the stochastics is OS. It's time to jump in. I am not waiting for that 4-hour segment to complete itself. After the entry, then I might drop down to the 1-hour chart or 15-minute chart to see what it is doing. If a key S or R area was taken out convincingly, especially a confluence, then it may be time to admit I messed up, and look for a better entry.
Others are worth being patient with. As an example, the GBP/CAD has moved against me, but not that bad. It is going to be a huge move south, once it gets moving, so I'm just waiting.

 

[Splitlink]

Here's a live example. Watch for a reaction on the part of the USD/CAD at 1.0639, which is my WR2, If it breaks that level, then we should get a strong reversal at 1.0702, which is my MR3.
I won't trade it, because I have enough trades up now, but just gives you something to look at. Also when the reversal happens, it will have a good effect on my GBP/CAD, as it is usually the CAD not the GBP that moves the GBP/CAD.

I'm fascinated! I've had it on since you posted. It's 1.0639 now. I'm not trading it, either, because I'm doing something else, just watching for 1.0702!

 

[4xpipcounter]

Too late for 1,0702. We already got the hard bounce off the circa 1.0639 area.

I'm fascinated! I've had it on since you posted. It's 1.0639 now. I'm not trading it, either, because I'm doing something else, just watching for 1.0702!