Some of my trades, forecasts

[NKE]

Hi saw your AUD trade and wondered how you managed it - so basically if the trade does not perform as anticipated you just hedge until it starts to move in the right direction again - and then remove hedge - not something I have often done, as I usually close out my trade if it is going wrong - and look for the next one - or in this case waited until AUD started to reverse; at least with a hedge, so long as it it put on fairly quickly you are guaranteed some profit on one side
- lol

 

[4xpipcounter]

Nicolas, I don't do it often. The last time I did it was absolutely bizarre. It was shortly before I got in this forum, but is verified in my blog. I got into the EUR/AUD trade around 1.4127 on a short, and woke up the next day about -150 pips. It was evident I messed up, so I hedged the trade. I did it 2 other times while it was moving up, all the while knowing my platform was going to be taken up with the whole net of the positioning. By the time I got to my 3rd position, I was already positive pips on the whole of it, but I was still going for the ride to see how far it would take me. It met up with resistance at the weekly kijun, and normally I would just take it out, but it was such a wild ride, I couldn't pull the trigger. Finally, it came down, I took out the 3 positions, and then rode down my short further. As it turned out, I went about -500 on the short, but had a net gain of around 400 pips. It was nasty! (Those are approximate numbers, and I'm too lazy to look up the actual.)
Any rate, you're only guaranteed a winner on the hedge, as long as the original position goes in your favor. In today's case the original trade went in my favor as soon as I entered a hedge, so I am already down -45<> on the hedge ,and down on my original position. My original has to go +45 just to break even. That, I'm not worried about.
A hedge is guaranteed a winner as long as the original position has moved in your favor. If you enter both at the same time, you are already in the hole because of the spread.
I don't really like them, but they are handy in an emergency. I do know one thing. I don't ever want to do something like the EUR/AUD again.

Hi saw your AUD trade and wondered how you managed it - so basically if the trade does not perform as anticipated you just hedge until it starts to move in the right direction again - and then remove hedge - not something I have often done, as I usually close out my trade if it is going wrong - and look for the next one - or in this case waited until AUD started to reverse; at least with a hedge, so long as it it put on fairly quickly you are guaranteed some profit on one side
- lol

 

[4xpipcounter]

GBP/USD update

Cable hit the valley at 1.5102, which was 2 points over my projection. For the 1st time, I am starting to doubt whether or not 1.5278 is going to be hit. That point is the 23% extension of YS1--YP. It is not necessary it gets hit. Attached is a chart that shows my pessimism. The stochastics on the daily are OB and divergent. It is also not hard to tell that in the last 5 days price action has gone sideways.
This pair may not look back. If we get a daily close under 1.5005, then we're locked in.

BTW, concerning the aussie, just for the record, I threw another log on the fire at .8740. Now, the breakeven point on my original position is -30 pips at .8670. I was a little late on that. I wanted to get in at the DR2 at .8750, but no one's perfect. OTOH, I don't require perficiency out of myself, just pips.

 

[rgsharp]

Re: Got a question

I got what may appear as a stupid question, but maybe someone can help. I got a pic in my profile, but I want it shown in the forum, like many are after they make a post. I think they call it an avatar. How do I do that? All thsi time I spend on a computer, you'd think I'd have this stuff down. Anyway, thanks in advance.

Click your handle (top right hand corner of this page)
Goto: user cp
Goto: settings & options
Goto: edit avatar.

Richard.:clap:

 

[4xpipcounter]

Re: Got a question

The boss, Tucker, thanks you.

Click your handle (top right hand corner of this page)
Goto: user cp
Goto: settings & options
Goto: edit avatar.

Richard.:clap:

 

[NKE]

Re: GBP/CAD, GBP/USD, EUR/GBP, & EUR/USD update.

GBP/CAD could now be on a rampage. I mentioned in a private conversation that the bears could be out with teeth in it, and that's what we see. Right now, price action is strgguling at the WS1 at 1.5957. My thinking is it will have total disregard for it, and an extension is about to happen. That being the case, the next major support will be the MP at 1.5879.
It is my opinion that cable is building up to a crescendo reversal. After the next leg UP, I will add it on to my MT--LT trades on a short.
The scenario is also putting .8420 on the radar for the EUR/GBP. 1.2807 is clearly on the radar for the EUR/USD. It's implied that the EUR/USD could even hit 1.3229. Note the semantics.

Well you hit the button on GBP CAD!! now at 1.56 - not a pair that I have ever traded...

 

[4xpipcounter]

Re: GBP/CAD, GBP/USD, EUR/GBP, & EUR/USD update.

That's why I took that MT--LT trade out. I got a little too careful on my short trade and jumped out early around 1.5885. It now has a strong enough leg on it to make it to 1.5365, which is the cloud top of the daily.
I'm a little concerned about the GBP/USD. 1.5278 should be in its sights, The daily cahrt is divergent, so it also shouldn't be a problem to revisit 1.5005. There is a lot of indicision on the part of the pair. I guess it is a nice pair for somone who is a range trader and that uses tight stops. That's not me, so I'm uncomfortable with instigating any kind of trade on the pair. Even the 4-hour shows a bump into the cloud but it has not committed. The 1-hour shows a break under the cloud, but it has some depth, which shows room ofr a recovery, along with meeting support with the 200 MA. These are conditions I'm not too fond of.
I spent a good amount of time scalping in the Japanese session last night, and gained a few pips. I might do some more scalping a little later today.
You might have noticed that the loonie crosses all got pummelled. A look at the USD/CAD tells me that.
BTW, my concerns only revolve around my methodology, of which I do not veer from. The range trader is saying, "You're nuts! I love these conditons!"
A friend of mine, all he looks for are ranges. Back when the EUR/GBP ranged for the longest time, he made love (figure of speech) to that pair--up, down, up, down. This went on for 2 years. It broke his heart when the pair finally had the break to the upside.
You make a simple comment, adn get a book in return--lol.

Well you hit the button on GBP CAD!! now at 1.56 - not a pair that I have ever traded...

 

[4xpipcounter]

EUR/GBP trade

This thread is too deep for me to go hunt for it, but I did say, circa June 28th, that the EUR/GBP was going to reverse around .8145, and giving room for any possible spike to .8004, which is the 23% extension. The 76% mark is .8420. It also rests just under the cloud. Watch for a reversal at that point. I'll be ready to trade this one. I'm not seeing many setups these day with strong obviations, but this is one of them.
Also, notice the struggle it is having at .8367, as the UP is getting tired, but .8325 remains as support. This is classic IC/S&R's price action.

 

[4xpipcounter]

Aud/usd

With current price action gone sideways under R at .8776, we could be in for a break for another leg upwards towards MR2 at .8834. The pair is playing around at the monthly, weekly, and daily cloud tops again.

 

[rgsharp]

Eur/GBP Trade

What would your trigger to get short be?

 

[4xpipcounter]

Re: EUR/GBP trade

Richard, in regards to this post in #318, "What would your trigger to get short be? "
The .8420 would be perfect because of the strong confluence of events. This is the daily cloud, along with the obviations on the daily S&R's, and the stochastics being OB. .8420 is also the weekly tenken.

This thread is too deep for me to go hunt for it, but I did say, circa June 28th, that the EUR/GBP was going to reverse around .8145, and giving room for any possible spike to .8004, which is the 23% extension. The 76% mark is .8420. It also rests just under the cloud. Watch for a reversal at that point. I'll be ready to trade this one. I'm not seeing many setups these day with strong obviations, but this is one of them.
Also, notice the struggle it is having at .8367, as the UP is getting tired, but .8325 remains as support. This is classic IC/S&R's price action.

 

[4xpipcounter]

Eur/jpy

This pair has been struggling at the daily kijun at 110.35. I'm looking for the tenken to be support at 109.09, and an eventual push to the weekly tenken at 114.79. It's even feesible to see a push to the monthly tenken at 121.51, but not yet confirmed.

 

[4xpipcounter]

Re: Eur/jpy

The push towards 109.09 has begun. If it breaks that point, then 108.13 is the next support. 109.09 is still on the radar.

This pair has been struggling at the daily kijun at 110.35. I'm looking for the tenken to be support at 109.09, and an eventual push to the weekly tenken at 114.79. It's even feesible to see a push to the monthly tenken at 121.51, but not yet confirmed.

 

[4xpipcounter]

Richard, I know you asked me for my trigger. My main plaform that I use for my S&R's is showing .8418 as the peak. .8336 could be support, ST. There is still a way to go on the downtrend. I'm thnking the area of .8370 could be a viable entry if you are not already in.
Sometimes my drunken butterfly metaphor pays off for me. I set me entry at .8410, so I'm already racking up the pips. Kind of funny. I woke up to check my charts, and saw the peak at .8418, and I thought, "Rats! I missed out!" Then, I started checking for the next best entry, then found on my live account I was already in, because of the entry I set for myself.
Watch for the circa area of .8370 between now and the London open, and it hsould trigger a nice entry. Of course by 23:00 GMT, I'll know my dailies which will also help.

Eur/GBP Trade

What would your trigger to get short be?

 

[rgsharp]

Thank you for those comments. I did miss the entry and then thought to myself that I should have gone slightly lower. That's life....

 

[rgsharp]

Counting pips on DJIA trade, so happy at the moment.

 

[4xpipcounter]

Re: GBP/USD update

I'm still in a flux over this pair, but it appears things might be clearing up. (Do you sense the doubt I still have?). We had a move down to my WS2 (You read it right. That represnts a strong move.) at .14961. Afterwards, we had an abrupt, strong reversal. Also, remember I said we need a close below 1.5005 in order to feel safe about the bears taking over. The move that precipitated from the divergency of the stochastics, may have also completed. What would now be ideal is a move towards the 1.5278, get a double divergence on the stochastics, adn then we are on our way. That move would look similar to the EUR/GBP, today, as it is not looking back.
In conclusion look for 1.5278 being back on the radar, but there is fog over the dashboard.

Cable hit the valley at 1.5102, which was 2 points over my projection. For the 1st time, I am starting to doubt whether or not 1.5278 is going to be hit. That point is the 23% extension of YS1--YP. It is not necessary it gets hit. Attached is a chart that shows my pessimism. The stochastics on the daily are OB and divergent. It is also not hard to tell that in the last 5 days price action has gone sideways.
This pair may not look back. If we get a daily close under 1.5005, then we're locked in.

BTW, concerning the aussie, just for the record, I threw another log on the fire at .8740. Now, the breakeven point on my original position is -30 pips at .8670. I was a little late on that. I wanted to get in at the DR2 at .8750, but no one's perfect. OTOH, I don't require perficiency out of myself, just pips.

 

[4xpipcounter]

There ya go! There's so good news for the thread. Watch out for the bottom of the daily cloud at 10,265. That could lead to a volatile break. It's not confirmed yet. It could also break through, and then head to the top of the cloud.
BTW, the recovery on the EUR/GBP has just begun. We had a perfect bounce of the bottom of the hourly cloud.
My dailes after 23:00 GMT will further confirm an entry on the bounce, but .8365--.8385 is looking good, as of now.

Counting pips on DJIA trade, so happy at the moment.

 

[rgsharp]

There ya go! There's so good news for the thread. Watch out for the bottom of the daily cloud at 10,265. That could lead to a volatile break. It's not confirmed yet. It could also break through, and then head to the top of the cloud.
BTW, the recovery on the EUR/GBP has just begun. We had a perfect bounce of the bottom of the hourly cloud.
My dailes after 23:00 GMT will further confirm an entry on the bounce, but .8365--.8385 is looking good, as of now.

I should have said that I'm short, so used to not talking about my trades. lol

 

[4xpipcounter]

Nzd/chf

I made it a little late to this pair, but a strong reversal is ready to ensue. At least .7414 is on the radar which is 123 pips from where it is now. The WR1 at .7560, adn the MR1 at .7545 provided brilliant resistance