The short-term oil uptrend continued yesterday. As a result, the Target Zone 89.51 - 88.76 was reached. After that, the price corrected and tested the Additional Zone 87.42 - 87.23. If the AZ is held, the rise will continue, and yesterday's high will be updated.
If the Additional Zone is broken out downside and the price consolidates below, the correction will continue with the target in the Intermediary Zone 85.54 - 85.17. It is also profitable to consider new purchases in the IZ with a target at yesterday's high.
US Crude trading ideas for today:
Buy according to the pattern in Additional Zone 87.42 - 87.23. Take Profit: 89.24. Stoploss: according to the pattern rules.
Buy according to the pattern in Intermediary Zone 85.54 - 85.17. Take Profit: 89.24. Stoploss: according to the pattern rules.
ASX 200 - The stock market is preparing for a downward correction
A significant part of the filling of the Australian budget is the sale of goods to other countries, and a serious disappointment for the market was that Export prices in the third quarter showed a decrease of 3.6% for the first time since autumn 2020 after rising by 10.1% in the previous quarter, while Import prices remained virtually unchanged, rising 3.0% after increasing 4.3% earlier. Against the backdrop of negative dynamics, investors ignored the rather strong data of today's report on the Producer Price Index, which added 1.9% in the third quarter, and 6.4% in annual terms. The increase in producer prices now has little effect on market sentiment, as it is almost impossible to sell these products at a high price.
The price continues to trade in the global downward channel, having reached the resistance line.
Support levels: 6700, 6440 | Resistance levels: 6870, 7040
The CHFJPY pair formed mixed trades recently, affected by the strength of the additional barrier at 149.75, to decline towards 148.25 as appears on the chart, while the main stability within the bullish channel and the price consolidation above the major support line at 147.2 form the main factor to confirm the continuation of the positivity for the upcoming period.
Now, stochastic attempt to provide the positive momentum allows us to expect the beginning of forming bullish waves, to repeat the pressure on the mentioned barrier and assure the importance of achieving the beach to open the way to resume the rise and achieve new gains that start at 150.5.
The expected trading range for today is between 147.80 and 149.75, and the expected trend for today is Bullish.
The EURUSD pair confirmed breaking 0.9915 after ending yesterday below it, which supports the continuation of the expected bearish trend for the upcoming period, waiting for more decline to visit 0.9840 that represents our next target, noting that breaking it will push the price back to the main bearish channel and confirm the continuation of the bearish trend domination on the short term and medium-term basis.
Therefore, the bearish trend scenario will remain active conditioned by the price stability below 1. The expected trading range for today is between 0.9810 support and 0.9970 resistance.
GBPUSD pair ended yesterday with clear negativity, as it broke 1.1520 level and settled below it, to move below the main resistance line that appears on the chart, noticing that the price completed double top pattern that might force the price to achieve more decline. On the other hand, we notice that the EMA50 attempts to protect the price from suffering more losses, while stochastic provides clear positive signals that might push the price to start positively today.
Therefore, the contradiction between the technical factors makes us stay aside until the price confirms its situation according to 1.1520 level, as consolidating below it will press on the price to decline towards 1.1315 areas mainly, while breaching it will reactivate the positive scenario that its next target located at 1.1700. The expected trading range for today is between 1.1420 support and 1.1610 resistance.
The American market continues to correct against the backdrop of corporate reporting and positive expectations of investors regarding a possible reduction in inflation. The S&P 500 is currently trading at 3898.
Experts predict a slowdown in consumer price growth in the US, which will allow the stock market to continue its upward correction. Mike Wilson, a leading analyst at Morgan Stanley banking holding, believes that against this background, S&P 500 quotes may overcome 4100.0 in the near future, as the M2 money supply has fallen sharply over the past month. The analyst is confident that the results of tomorrow's meeting of the US Federal Reserve will also be a catalyst for the upward dynamics in the asset, at which, most likely, a decision will be made on the next increase in interest rates by 75 basis points.
The index quotes continued the local corrective trend, taking a lead from a Head and Shoulders reversal pattern.
Technical indicators maintain the buy signal: the fast EMAs of the Alligator indicator are above the signal line, and the histogram of the AO oscillator is trading in the buy zone, forming ascending bars.
Support levels: 3830, 3630 | Resistance levels: 3950, 4120
Last week, the ETHUSD pair attempted to grow within the general market trend, left the stable sideways range of 1375 – 1250 (Murrey [2/8]–[0/8]), and reached two-month highs around 1663.
Currently, quotes have rolled back to the area of 1562.5 (Murrey [5/8], Fibonacci retracement 38.2%), but the upward momentum may not be lost yet. In case of re-consolidation above 1625 (Murrey [6/8]), positive dynamics may continue to 1750 (Murrey [8/8], Fibonacci retracement 23.6%) and 1812.5 (Murrey [+1/8], the upper limit of the long-term downlink). The key "bearish" level is 1500 (Murrey [4/8]). Its breakdown will give the prospect of quotes returning to 1410 (the middle line of Bollinger bands), 1375 (Murrey [2/8]), 1312.5 (Murrey [1/ 8], Fibonacci retracement 61.8%).
The NZDUSD pair shows more bullish bias to move away from 0.5835 level, reinforcing the expectations of continuing the bullish trend for the rest of the day, and the way is open to achieve our waited target at 0.5910, supported by the EMA50 that carries the price from below, reminding you that the continuation of the bullish wave requires holding above 0.5835.
The expected trading range for today is between 0.5790 support and 0.5900 resistance, and the expected trend for today is Bullish.
The EURJPY pair formed temporary negative waves, affected by stochastic crawl below 50 level, to notice reaching the initial support 145.65, while the upcoming scenario depends on the stability of this support line, to expect renewing the bullish attempts and target 147.2 followed by 148.4.
On the other hand, facing continuous negative pressures and crawling below the current support will confirm postponing the bullish attack, to suffer some losses by crawling towards 143.95 that forms additional support as appears on the chart.
The expected trading range for today is between 145.5 and 147, and the expected trend for today is Bullish.
The EURUSD pair fluctuates at the intraday bearish channel’s resistance now, and the EMA50 meets this resistance to add more strength to it, to support the continuation of the expected bearish trend for today, which its next targets located at 0.9840 followed by 0.9700, while holding below 1 represents major condition to continue the expected decline.
The expected trading range for today is between 0.9800 support and 0.9970 resistance, and expected trend for today is Bearish.
The GBPCHF pair ended the correctional bullish attack by hitting key resistance at 1.1575, to increase the chances of its affect by the negative trades for the near term and medium term period, and notice crawling towards 1.1410.
Stochastic attempts to provide the negative momentum will provide the price with new negative momentum, to reinforce the chances of declining and target 1.1285 followed by repeating the pressure on 1.1120 obstacle.
The expected trading range for today is between 1.1530 and 1.1300, and the expected trend for today is Bearish.
The GBPUSD pair broke the bullish channel’s support line strongly to confirm the continuation of the bearish trend domination on the intraday basis, opening the way to achieve bearish correction that its next target reaches 1.1130, making the bearish bias suggested for the rest of the day unless the price rallied to breach 1.1325 followed by 1.1400 levels and hold above them.
The expected trading range for today is between 1.1200 support and 1.1325 resistance, and the expected trend for today is Bearish.
The USDCHF pair rallied upwards yesterday to breach 0.9990 and settles above it, to reactivate the bullish trend scenario and head towards achieving gains that reach 1.0145. Therefore, expect to witness more bullish bias in the upcoming sessions supported by the EMA50 that carries the price from below, noting that holding above 0.9990 is important to continue the suggested bullish wave.
The expected trading range for today is between 0.9970 support and 1.0100 resistance, and the expected trend for today is Bullish.
The USDCHF pair succeeded to achieve our waited target at 1.0145 and found solid resistance there, to show some bearish bias now, facing contradiction between the technical factors that makes us prefer to stay aside until we get clearer signal for the next trend.
Note that breaching the above mentioned level will lead the price to achieve additional gains that reach 1.0200 direct, while breaking 1.0090 support will press on the price to continue the decline and head to test 0.9990 areas before any new attempt to rise.
The expected trading range for today is between 1.0040 support and 1.0190 resistance, and the expected trend for today is Neutral.
The AUDUSD pair opens today’s trading with clear positivity to head towards potential test to the broken neckline of the double top pattern that appears on the chart, waiting to resume the bearish wave that targets 0.6265 followed by 0.6170 levels as next main stations.
Until now, the bearish trend scenario still valid and active unless the price rallied to breach 0.6397 and hold above it, noting that the EMA50 supports the suggested decline. The expected trading range for today is between 0.6260 support and 0.6370 resistance, the expected trend for today is Bearish.
The USDCAD pair succeeded to achieve our first suggested positive target at 1.3775 and bounced downwards clearly from there, to approach testing the key support base 1.3680 by today’s open, affected by stochastic negativity that gets rid of its negative momentum clearly, while the EMA50 meets the mentioned support to add more strength to it.
Therefore, these factors encourage us to suggest the bullish bias for today, which its next target reaches 1.3860, noting that breaking 1.3680 will put the price under additional negative pressure and push the price to return to the correctional bearish trend again.
The expected trading range for today is between 1.3630 support and 1.3780 resistance, and the expected trend for today is Bullish.
USDJPY pair traded positively yesterday to breach the bearish channel’s resistance and settles above it, to hint the attempt to regain the main bullish trend again, but we notice that stochastic lost its positive momentum clearly, to put the price under negative pressure by today’s open.
Therefore, the contradiction between the technical factors makes us prefer to stay aside until we get clearer signal for the next trend, noting that breaching 148.45 will lead the price to achieve more gains and head towards 150 areas initially, while breaking 147.17 will put the price under the correctional bearish pressure again, to target 146 followed by 144.20 levels as next negative stations.
The expected trading range for today is between 147.10 support and 148.90 resistance, and the expected trend for today is Neutral.
Euro Declines on Profit-taking after Biggest Daily Profit Since 2015
Euro fell in European trade against a basket of major rivals on profit-taking after marking the biggest profit since late 2015 against dollar, however risks continue to surround the common currency. The dollar was boosted as well amid risk-averse sentiment with China asserting its commitment to strict Covid 19 restrictions, dashing hopes of reopening the world's second largest economy.
EURUSD fell lover 0.5% to 0.9902, after closing up 2.2% on Friday, the first profit in five days, and the largest since December 2015.
Standing Risks
The divergent levels of European and US interest rates are ongoing risks that continue hurting euro's standing, in addition to high energy costs and natural gas shortages. A historic increase in energy prices sent inflation considerably higher and hurt economic growth and the trade flow.
Lagarde
ECB President Christine Lagarde is preparing to present a speech organized by the European Commission in Belgium, which might offer fresh clues on the future of interest rates in the euro zone. Lagarde also noted the extremely higher inflation rates all over the euro zone, which remain far from the 2% targets.
The Dollar
The dollar index rose over 0.4% on Monday, recouping some of its hefty losses on Friday against a basket of major rivals. The dollar swooned on Friday after four Fed policymakers said they're considering raising interest rates at the next December meeting by a lower amount compared to the previous meeting.
GBPUSD - The market is concerned about Sunak's rhetoric to phase out fossil fuels
Yesterday, the media circulated excerpts from a statement by British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, with which he intends to speak at today's 27th United Nations (UN) climate change conference. So, the position of the office is based on the rejection of fossil fuels in favor of renewable energy sources and that the United Kingdom is ready to work with foreign allies on the issue of an early "green transition." It may mean that the country will continue the policy of quickly abandoning oil and gas, which threatens serious economic problems. Sunak called the fight against inflation the key task for the government, which reached 10.1%, and not the pursuit of the well-being of citizens.
The instrument is kept within the long-term downward channel, trading near the resistance line.
Resistance levels: 1.146, 1.1756 | Support levels: 1.1154, 1.084
The EURUSD pair ended last Friday with strong positivity, settling above 0.9900 barrier, to reinforce the chances of continuing the rise in the upcoming period, waiting to test 1 level as a next station, noting that breaching this level will lead the price to achieve additional gains that reach 1.0165. Therefore, the bullish bias will be suggested for today, noting that breaking 0.9870 will stop the positive scenario and press on the price to decline again, to head towards visiting 0.9755 initially.
The expected trading range for today is between 0.9870 support and 1.0030 resistance, and the expected trend for today is Bullish.
