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USDCHF Tests the Resistance Again​

USDCHF pair returned to rise after leaning on 0.9965 level, to test 1.0064 level again, which formed solid resistance against the price, to keep the negative scenario active until now, waiting to resume the bearish bias to head towards 0.991 followed by 0.986 levels as next main targets. Stochastic negativity supports the expected decline, which will remain valid unless breaching 1.0064 and holding above it.

The expected trading range for today is between 0.995 support and 1.008 resistance. The expected trend for today: Bearish.​

 

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BTCUSD - Market Uncertainty Persists​

The BTCUSD pair had a rather volatile week, dropping to four-week lows around 18190 but then returned to 19940. However, quotes generally remain in the range of 19000–19400.

The sharp decline in prices was due to the release of September data on inflation in the US, which remained at very high levels: the consumer price index reached 8.2%, and Core CPI – 6.6%, which forced the US Federal Reserve to adopt “hawkish” rhetoric, strengthening the position of the American currency against the main competitors. However, the downward dynamics were short-term, and soon the trading instrument regained lost positions.

The price chart is probably forming a Downwards Triangle, and the trading instrument is close to exiting it. If it consolidates below the 19000–18750 zone, the decline will continue to 18000 (Murrey [–1/8]), 16900 (Fibonacci extension 100), and if 19531.25 (Murrey [1/8], the middle line of Bollinger Bands) is broken up resume by 20312.5 (Murrey [2/8]) and 21093.7 (Murrey [3/8]).

Resistance levels: 19531.2, 20312.5, 21093.7, 21875 | Support levels: 18750, 18000, 16900​

 

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ETHUSD - Murray analysis​

This week, the quotes have overcome the mark of 1321 (Fibo retracement 61.8%, the middle line of the Bollinger Bands) and can continue to grow to the upper limit of the lateral range of 1375, which will allow them to leave the descending channel and rise to the levels of 1450 (Fibo retracement 50.0%), 1500 (Murray [4/8]) and 1575 (Fibo retracement 38.2%). The reverse consolidation of the price below the level of 1321.00 will give the prospect of a return to the lower limit of the trading range of 1250, however, the resumption of serious downward dynamics is possible only in case of its breakdown. In this case, the targets will be 1125 (Murray [1/8]) and 1000 (Murray [0/8]).

Resistance levels: 1375, 1450, 1500, 1575 | Support levels: 1250, 1125, 1000​

 

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XAUUSD - The "bulls" reduce positions in the asset​

The situation on the gold market is still ambiguous: historically, the precious metal has always been a refuge in case of geopolitical tensions, but at the moment, its quotes are under pressure from high interest rates and, as a result, a growing dollar. The hawkish monetary policy provokes an increase in government bonds yield, which are more reliable than gold, and high rates (4% on 10-year bonds) additionally attract investor capital into bonds. Also, since the price of gold is denominated in dollars, the latter's growth will always make the metal cheaper, which is now observed.

On the daily chart of the asset, the price is moving in a downward channel, approaching the support line.

Resistance levels: 1672, 1730 | Support levels: 1620, 1570​

 

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GBPUSD Technical Analysis​

The GBPUSD pair faces negative pressure to attack the bullish channel’s support line and press on the next key support 1.1518, which urges caution from the upcoming trading, as confirming the break will stop the expected positive scenario for today and force the price to start new bearish wave, while the price needs to step above 1.1.1357 again to regain the bullish trend that its next target located at 1.1490.

The expected trading range for today is between 1.1230 support and 1.1360 resistance. The expected trend for today: Bullish.​

 

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EURUSD Technical Analysis​

The EURUSD pair shows bearish bias to approach testing the key support 0.9808, and the price needs to hold above this level to keep the bullish trend active, waiting to breach 0.9865 to confirm extending the bullish wave towards 0.9873, noting that breaking 0.9808 will press on the price to test 0.9700 level as a next negative station.

The expected trading range for today is between 0.9790 support and 0.9940 resistance. The expected trend for today: Bullish.​

 

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AUDUSD - Australian labor market under pressure​

Today's report on the labor market did not support the Australian currency: unemployment in the country remained at 3.5%, and its growth compared to August was less than 0.1%. The number of unemployed increased by 9.0K to 499.4K people, and their percentage among young people decreased to 7.9%, while the employment-to-population ratio corrected to 64.2% from 64.3% a month earlier. In turn, full-time employment increased by 13.3K people, and part-time employment decreased by 12.4K people, reinforcing the negative trend of previous months, as citizens strive for stable work in the face of rapid inflation and higher interest rates on loans.

On the daily chart of the asset, the price is falling within the local channel, holding near the support line. Technical indicators maintain a stable sell signal: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are kept significantly from the signal line, and the AO oscillator histogram is deep in the sell zone.

Resistance levels: 0.632, 0.65 | Support levels: 0.62, 0.605​

 

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EURUSD Under the Negative Pressure​

EURUSD pair faced clear negative pressure yesterday to break 0.979 level and close the daily candlestick below it, which pushes the price to trade with expected negativity in the upcoming sessions, especially after exiting the intraday bullish channel that appears on the chart, to head towards achieving negative targets that start at 0.9700 and extend to 0.9630 after surpassing the previous level.

Therefore, the bearish bias will be suggested for today, supported by moving below the EMA50, noting that breaching 0.9790 will stop the expected decline and lead the price to recover again.
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The expected trading range for today is between 0.9660 support and 0.9830 resistance. The expected trend for today: Bearish.​

 

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ADAUSD - Murrey analysis​

The ADAUSD pair is moving within a short-term downtrend and this week reached the year's lows around 0.3418 (Murrey [–2/8]). Fixing the price below this level will give the prospect of further decline to 0.3173 (Murrey [–2/8] for H4) and 0.2900 (the lower border of the downwards channel). The key point for the "bulls" remains 0.3906 (Murrey [8/8]), supported by the middle line of Bollinger Bands. If it consolidates above it, the price will return to the main Murrey trading range and can rise to the area of 0.4150 (Murrey [1/8], upper downwards channel border) or 0.4395 (Murrey [2/8]).

Resistance levels: 0.3662, 0.3906, 0.415, 0.4395 | Support levels: 0.3418, 0.3173, 0.29​

 

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GBPUSD - The political crisis in the UK puts pressure on the pound quotes​

GBPUSD is trading with a multidirectional dynamic, testing the level of 1.1200 for a breakdown. The British currency is still under pressure from the rising US dollar, which is supported by expectations of a tightening of the US Federal Reserve's monetary policy. The Bank of England is also set to further increase the interest rate, given the fact that inflation in the UK in September exceeded the psychological barrier of 10.0%; in addition, the regulator is considering launching a quantitative tightening program.

At the same time, the Bank of England is forced to respond not only to economic challenges, but also to the political crisis. The day before, British Prime Minister Liz Truss announced her resignation after only 45 days in office, but the official will continue to fulfill her duties until the elections, which are to be held next week. Analysts call the former Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak the most likely candidate for the post of chairman of the Conservative Party and the head of government. In addition, Boris Johnson announced the decision to return to his political career. Truss resigned after being criticized for an initiative to reduce the fiscal burden and subsidize utility bills.

Today, investors are watching the publication of a block of macroeconomic statistics from the UK on the dynamics of Retail Sales: on a monthly basis, the indicator slowed down the negative dynamics from -1.6% to -1.4%, and on an annualized basis, on the contrary, strengthened it from -5.4% to -6.9%, while Retail Sales excluding Fuel on a monthly basis corrected from -1.6% to -1.5% with a forecast of -0.3%, and from -5.0% to -6.2% on an annual basis, although analysts expected -4.1%. Weak statistics may push the pound quotes to a new decline.

Resistance levels: 1.13, 1.1494, 1.16, 1.17 | Support levels: 1.115, 1.106, 1.0922, 1.06​

 

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EURUSD - EU leaders agree on joint gas purchases​

The instrument continues to slowly decline, despite the incoming positive signals after the summit of EU leaders yesterday, at which, according to the head of the European Council, Charles Michel, they managed to reach a common agreement in the field of energy security. In particular, the prospect of creating a cartel of European gas buyers, which will be engaged in the purchase and subsequent gas distribution to all countries of the region, is being considered. At the initial stage, it is planned to allocate up to 15% of the total volume of purchases to the organization, and in case of its successful work, increase this figure. As for the macroeconomic component, inflation growth to 9.9% in September was already priced in, thanks to which the market reaction was restrained, and investors are preparing for the next increase in interest rates by members of the European Central Bank (ECB).

The trading instrument moves within the downward global channel near the resistance line.

Resistance levels: 0.987, 1.01 | Support levels: 0.9700, 0.9537​

 

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NI 225 - foreign trade indicators impede the growth of the index​

The leading Japanese stock index NI 225 continues to correct, trading near the level of 26881.0.

According to the latest report from the Japanese Ministry of Finance, Exports in September increased by 28.9% compared to the same period in 2021, amounting to 8.819 trillion yen, while Imports added 45.9%, reaching record 10.913 trillion yen. Thus, Japan's trade deficit has already amounted to 2.094 trillion yen, which is another record both in size and in duration, as the negative trade balance has been maintained for 14 consecutive months. The data released today showed a 0.4% increase in the National Consumer Price Index in September in monthly terms and 3.0% in annual terms. The indicator has been growing for the eighth month in a row, which is beginning to cause doubts among market participants about the continuation of the "dovish" policy and the negative interest rate retention by the Bank of Japan.

On the daily chart of the asset, the price remains within the local lateral corridor, holding near the support line. Technical indicators keep a sell signal despite the local correction: the histogram of the AO oscillator remains in the sell zone, forming new ascending bars, and fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are below the signal line.

Support levels: 26350, 25500 | Resistance levels: 27400, 28400​

 

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GBPUSD Technical Analysis​

The GBPUSD pair resumes its negative trades to support the continuation of the bearish trend for the rest of the day, reminding you that our main targets begin at 1.1055 and extend to 1.0920 as next main stations, supported by the negative pressure formed by the EMA50, while the price needs to hold below 1.1290 to continue the expected decline.

The expected trading range for today is between 1.1080 support and 1.1220 resistance. The expected trend for today: Bearish.​

 

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GBPUSD - Under the pressure of the domestic political crisis in the UK​

This week can be seen as the official start of a new race for prime minister after incumbent and Conservative Party chief Liz Truss announced her resignation amid widespread criticism of her proposed tax reform. Currently, only one real favorite is known – the former finance minister Rishi Sunak, supported by most current officials (178 out of 357 deputies). In turn, former Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who announced his readiness to compete for the post on Friday, has already fallen out of the race, having failed to enlist the support of at least 100 party members and gained only 59 votes. The electoral process must be completed by October 28. Today will be presented data on business activity in the manufacturing and services sectors, from which analysts expect a continued decline from 48.4 points to 48 points and from 50 points to 49.6 points, respectively.

The trading instrument moves within the long-term downward channel toward the resistance line.

Resistance levels: 1.148, 1.18 | Support levels: 1.1178, 1.0925​

 

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Euro hits three-week high ahead of major European data​

Euro rose on Monday for the third straight session against dollar, hitting three-week highs on prospects Bank of Japan might intervene in the market, and ahead of major European data in October. The dollar index hit multi-week lows as US 10-year yields decline while risk appetite improves in the market.

EURUSD rose 0.3% to 0.9899, the highest since October 5, after rising 0.75% on Friday, the second profit in a row as investors buy up riskier assets.

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Major Data​

Investors await important European data later today, including the manufacturing and services PMIs in October for Europe. Such data will offer clues on the state of the European economy in the fourth quarter.

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The Dollar​

The dollar index fell 0.4% on Monday for the third session to three-week lows at 111.47 against a basket of major rivals. US 10-year treasury yields fell over 2% for the second session away from 15-year highs at 4.335%, improving risk appetite.

Such developments come on profit-taking and prospects Bank of Japan might intervene soon in the market to support yen against major rivals.

 

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BTCUSD -Market uncertainty persists​

The situation remains uncertain: on the one hand, in the long term, the position of the cryptocurrency market continues to be pressured by an increase in the interest rate in the United States, which may accelerate since inflation cannot be slowed down, and the deterioration of the global economic situation, which can reduce the activity of miners due to an increase in electricity prices. On the other hand, the potential for a serious decline in quotes seems to be limited since investors who want to abandon digital assets have already done so. A short-term positive impact on the trading instrument is the addition of support for trading cryptocurrencies in the United States by one of the largest brokers, Oanda, which has entered into a partnership with Paxos itBit, a regulated cryptocurrency platform, which should support the interest of ordinary American investors in digital assets.

The trading instrument remains within the sideways range of 19550–19000, having unsuccessfully tested its upper limit today and started to decline. If the zone of 19000–18750 is broken down, the quotes can reach 18000 (Murrey [1/8]), 17500 (Murrey [0/8]), and if they consolidate above 19550, the growth will be able to resume to 20000 (Murrey [4/8]) and 20625 (Murrey [3/8]).

Resistance levels: 19550, 20000, 20625 | Support levels: 18750, 18000, 17500​

 

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NZDUSD Takes Advantage of the American Dollar Weakness​

According to the report on foreign trade, exports to New Zealand in September adjusted by 1.6B dollars to 6.0B dollars, while imports – by 1.1B dollars and amounted to 7.6B dollars. Thus, the trade deficit consolidates around 1.6B dollars, down from 2.6B dollars last month. The growth leaders in the export category were livestock products, having increased by 71.0% compared to August, and in the import category – oil and oil products, having added 111.0% over the month. New Zealand is celebrating Labor Day today, and the stock exchanges are closed, as evidenced by low trading volumes, and the dynamics can only change after the start of the American session.

The trading instrument is moving within the global downtrend, slightly moving away from the support line.

Resistance levels: 0.5810, 0.5960 | Support levels: 0.5670, 0.5535​

 

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USDJPY Technical Analysis​

The USDJPY pair succeeded to achieve our waited target at 151.3 and approached 152 barriers, but it declined sharply to achieve bearish correction that stopped at 145.45, to rebound bullishly and start covering the losses that it suffered in the previous sessions, at it returns to the main bullish channel to support the continuation of the overall positive scenario.

Therefore, we expect to witness positive trades in the upcoming sessions supported by the positive signal provided by stochastic now, noting that breaking 148.10 followed by 147.15 levels will stop the expected rise and press on the price to achieve additional bearish correction.

The expected trading range for today is between 148 support and 150 resistances. The expected trend for today: Bullish.​

 

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S & P 500 - The US stock market is trying to recover​

At the moment, major market participants are publishing corporate financial statements, which are not as positive as experts expected. According to the analytical agency Refinitiv, the profit of 88 companies that reported for the past quarter decreased by an average of 2.6%. The biggest loser on Friday was stocks of Snap Inc., owner of the Snapchat, which shed more than 30.0% amid historically low revenue growth of 6.0% year-on-year. The focus of increased attention of investors is also Twitter Inc., in which the administration of the President of the United States showed interest in terms of initiating possible checks. Telecom operator Verizon Inc., which reported a 24.0% drop in third-quarter net income, is also trading below the market.

The index quotes continued the local corrective trend, forming a Head and Shoulders reversal pattern. Technical indicators keep the sell signal, which has noticeably weakened recently: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are approaching the signal line, and the AO oscillator histogram is forming upward bars being in the sale zone.

Support levels: 3665, 3495 | Resistance levels: 3810, 3980​

 

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USDJPY within tight track​

The USDJPY pair didn’t show any strong move since yesterday, to fluctuate within tight track, settling above the bullish channel’s support line, thus, no change to the bullish trend scenario that depends on the price stability above 148.5, waiting to get positive motive that assists to push the price to head towards our positive targets that start at 150 and extend to 152.

The expected trading range for today is between 148.2 support and 149.9 resistance. The expected trend for today: Bullish.​