Solid ECN—Ethereum is in a bear market, approaching the pivot at $3,469 in today's trading session. The pivot is backed by the descending trendline, which is considered a strong barrier. The momentum indicators have room left to become overbought, meaning the uptick momentum that began from $3,215 could result in targeting the upper resistance level.
If ETH/USD closes and stabilizes above the pivot, the 50% Fibonacci level could be the next target. The immediate support at 23.6% Fibonacci supports the current bullish wave.
Conversely, if the ETH/USD price dips below the 23.6% Fibonacci, the downtrend will likely resume. If this scenario unfolds, the first bearish barrier will be $3,341, and if the price dips below this level, the next resistance area will be the $3,215 mark.
Oil Trading Narrow Range: Key Resistance at $81.7
Solid ECN—Oil trades bullishly above the Ichimoku cloud and the 50% Fibonacci level. However, the black gold has been trading in a narrow range between the $81.7 resistance and the $80 support since June 16.
For the uptrend to resume, bulls must close above the immediate resistance at $81.7. If this scenario plays out, the next bullish target will be the 78.6% Fibonacci level at $83.
The 50% Fibonacci level is the support for the bullish scenario. If the price drops below $80, the consolidation phase could extend to the next support level at $78.9.
Solid ECN—The USD/CNH dip from 7.3 was expected because the stochastic oscillator was hovering in overbought territory. In today's trading session, the pair tested the 7.29 immediate support, while technical indicators suggest the downtrend might resume, and the price might cross below the immediate resistance.
From a technical standpoint, the primary trend is bullish. The uptrend will likely resume if the USD/CNH price holds above 7.29. If this scenario unfolds, the 7.3 immediate resistance will be tested again.
Conversely, if the bears (sellers) drive the price below the 7.29 resistance, the consolidation phase could extend to lower supply zones, starting with the 7.285, backed by the Ichimoku cloud.
The EUR/USD currency pair returns from the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.076. The technical indicators suggest the market is bullish but might become overbought soon.
Going long at the current price is not recommended from a technical standpoint because the stochastic oscillator almost crosses overbought territory. That said, the price will likely bounce from the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level to the 23.6% retracement level at 1.0725. This level will provide a decent entry point for joining the bull market.
Please note the key resistance level is at 1.076; the uptrend will resume if bulls stabilize above this level. Conversely, if the price dips below 1.072, the bullish scenario should be invalidated accordingly.
Solid ECN—The GBP/USD currency pair broke out from the descending trendline and the 50-period simple moving average. As a result, the price rose and tested the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.269, then returned to test the broken trendline. The technical indicators suggest the bullish uptrend should prevail, and the price has room to grow.
From a technical perspective, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.266 is key support for the current uptick momentum. Hence, if the price remains above this level, it is likely for the bulls to retest the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, and if the buying pressure exceeds 1.269, the next bullish target could be the 78.6% retracement level at 1.271.
Conversely, a dip below 1.266 should cancel the bullish scenario.
Solid ECN—The USD/CHF price is currently in a strong upward trend, clinging to the upper boundary of the bullish flag pattern. The recent price movements have exceeded the Bollinger Bands, and momentum indicators such as the RSI and Stochastic Oscillator suggest that the market might soon be overbought. Therefore, it is advisable not to enter a long position at the current price, as a dip to test the support levels at 1.3730 and 1.3709 is likely.
These support levels could offer a favorable entry point into the ongoing bull market. Traders and investors should watch these levels for bullish candlestick patterns, such as the hammer or bullish engulfing pattern.
The overall trend remains bullish as long as the USD/CHF pair trades within the bullish flag pattern and stays above the Ichimoku cloud level at 1.369.
Solid ECN—The Australian dollar (AUD) has recently declined from $0.668, testing the ascending trendline on the daily chart. Currently, the AUD/USD pair is rebounding from this trendline and is trading around $0.664.
Technical indicators suggest that the market is trading sideways with a slight bullish bias. Given that the price remains above both the ascending trendline and the Ichimoku cloud, it is anticipated that the AUD/USD pair will likely retest the $0.668 resistance level. Should the buying pressure surpass this resistance, the next target area will be $0.671.
However, a drop below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level would negate this bullish outlook.
NZD/USD Approaches Critical Bearish Flag Threshold
Solid ECN—The NZD/USD pair is currently testing the lower boundary of the bearish flag formation, and a long wick candlestick pattern has emerged on the 4-hour chart. The stochastic oscillator is approaching the oversold territory, indicating that the trading instrument may soon become oversold.
From a technical perspective, entering a short position or joining a bear market when the instrument is oversold is generally not advisable. Thus, traders and investors are recommended to wait for the pair to consolidate near the upper boundary of the bearish flag. Should this scenario occur, it is crucial to closely observe the candlestick patterns around the upper line of the bearish flag for bearish signals, such as an inverted hammer, a bearish engulfing pattern, or a shooting star.
A breakout above the key resistance level of $0.610 will invalidate the current downtrend.
Solid ECN—The Japanese yen strengthened past 161 per dollar, recovering slightly from its 38-year lows. This improvement came mainly due to a weaker dollar after soft US economic data boosted expectations that the Federal Reserve might cut interest rates as soon as September.
Additionally, fears of another government intervention supported the yen. Japanese authorities had spent nearly 10 trillion yen from late April to late May to bolster the yen after it fell below 160 per dollar.
Significant interest rate differences between Japan and other major economies had pressured the yen, leading investors to borrow and invest in higher-yielded currencies.
Furthermore, the Bank of Japan's slow approach to changing monetary policy weighed the yen. However, there is increasing speculation that the BOJ might raise rates at its next policy meeting in late July. Moreover, the BOJ announced it would release a plan to wind down its bond-buying program this month.
Solid ECN—EUR/USD tests the immediate resistance at 1.082. The technical indicators give mixed signals, with the Awesome Oscillator (AO) and stochastic oscillator being bearish. On the other hand, the RSI and Heiken Ashi suggest the bullish market will resume.
From a technical perspective, the ascending trendline and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.080 play critical roles as support. The bull market remains intact as long as the pair trades above it. In this scenario, if the price exceeds the immediate resistance at 1.082, the next bullish target will be the July 8 high at 1.0844.
Conversely, if the EUR/USD price dips below the key support level at 1.080, the bull market should be invalidated, and the bears (sellers) will likely push the price down to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.077.
Solid ECN—The European currency resumed its uptrend trajectory against the U.S. Dollar in today's trading session as expected. However, the EUR/USD pair is in an overbought state as both stochastic and RSI (14) are above 80 and 70.
From a technical standpoint, the price might consolidate near the 50% followed by the 61.8% Fibonacci level before the uptrend resumes. Traders and investors should monitor the 1.085 level for bullish signals such as a bullish engulfing candlestick or a hammer candlestick pattern.
Conversely, if the price dips below the 61.8% Fibonacci level, the bull market should be invalidated.
Solid ECN—The Australian dollar bounced from an ascending trendline against the U.S. Dollar from the immediate resistance at 0.675. The technical indicators provide mixed signals, mostly because all technical tools are lagging. That said, from a technical perspective, the AUD/USD is in a bull market because the currency pair trades in a bullish channel.
If the immediate resistance holds, the next bullish target will be testing the key resistance level at 0.679.
Conversely, if the price dips below 0.675, the next support area will be 0.672, a supply zone backed by the Ichimoku Cloud.
Solid ECN—XAU/USD dips from $2,424 as expected since the RSI 14 and the Stochastic oscillator were in oversold territory. With the bullish primary trend, the consolidation phase can provide new opportunities for traders and investors to find a decent bid to join the bull market.
The $2,392 and $2,387 levels offer new entry points. That said, traders should monitor these supply zones for bullish candlestick patterns, such as a hammer or a bullish engulfing pattern.
Please note that if the bears close below $2,387, the consolidation phase could extend to $2,370, a support area backed by the Ichimoku Cloud.
Solid ECN—The AUD/USD pair is in an uptrend, trading above the $0.6761 immediate resistance and the ascending trendline. The immediate resistance is at 0.6767, Friday's peak. Interestingly, the awesome oscillator signals twin peaks, which is a bullish signal if the bar turns green again.
From a technical standpoint, if the bulls close above the 0.6767 immediate resistance, the uptrend will likely resume, and the next bullish target will be at 0.6792, followed by July's all-time high at 0.6801.
Conversely, a dip below the immediate resistance at 0.6761 could extend to 0.6752. Furthermore, if the selling pressure exceeds 0.6752, the bullish scenario should be invalidated, and the trend should be considered reversed from a bull market to a bear market.
Solid ECN—The USD/JPY currency pair tested the 157.6 resistance level as shown in the daily chart. The technical indicators are bearish, but if the bulls (buyers) can hold the price above the key resistance level at 157.6, the uptrend will likely resume and initially target 160.3.
Conversely, if the price dips below the key resistance, the bearish momentum could target the next support level at 155.6.
Solid ECN—The USD/CHF pair trades within a bearish flag pattern and is aligned with the 50-period simple moving average, highlighting a pronounced downtrend. Despite the Awesome Oscillator bars turning green, they remain below the signal line, indicating a weakening of the bearish trend.
From a technical perspective, the primary trend remains bearish as long as the pair stays below the descending trendline. In this scenario, sellers will likely test the 0.891 resistance level again. Should the selling pressure surpass 0.891, the next resistance area would be at 0.888.
On the other hand, if buyers manage to close and stabilize the price above the descending trendline, the bearish trend would be invalidated. This would signify a reversal from a bear market to a bull market.
Unpredictable Market Keeps Silver Prices in Limbo
Solid ECN—Silver trades between the $30.5 immediate support and the $30.9 immediate resistance. The technical indicators give mixed signals, which adds to the uncertainty in the market direction in the short term. That said, the price has crossed the 50-period moving average several times, which could confuse retail traders.
In such a situation, traders and investors should wait patiently for the market to break out from one of the immediate barriers. The primary trend should be considered bullish since the silver price is still above the 38.2% Fibonacci. In this scenario, if the bulls close and stabilize the price above $30.98, the bull market will likely resume, and the initial target could be retesting the $31.48 resistance.
Conversely, if the price dips below the immediate support at $30.5, the value of silver could drop to the next supply zone at the 50% Fibonacci level, marked at $30.1, which is backed by the 100-period simple moving average.
