Solid ECN—The NZD/USD currency pair retreated from 0.6099 and tested the immediate resistance at 0.6132 today. Indicators such as the RVI and MACD suggest that the bullish trend is likely to continue. Notably, the stochastic oscillator is moving out of the oversold zone.
From a technical perspective, for the uptrend to continue, buyers need to push the price above the 0.613 resistance. If this happens, the pullback will likely target the 0.617 resistance.
Conversely, if sellers keep the price below the immediate resistance, the decline that started on June 6 is expected to test the key support level at 0.6088. If the selling pressure breaks this level, the next support will be at 0.604.
Solid ECN—The U.S. Dollar traded above the 78.6% Fibonacci level against the Japanese yen at about 157.2. The primary trend is bullish; however, the Demarker indicator signals an overbought market by hovering above the 0.7 level. This development in the indicator means the USD/JPY price might consolidate to the lower resistance levels.
Additionally, the 4-Hour chart shows the Bollinger bands are narrowing, signaling a range market. This aligns with the Demarker signal, pointing to the momentum easing on the uptrend.
From a technical standpoint, the USD/JPY is in a bull market, but the U.S. Dollar appears overpriced. It is likely for the bears to dip the price below the 157.0 immediate support. If this scenario unfolds, the consolidation phase may extend to the 61.8% Fibonacci at 156.4. This level provides a decent entry point to join the bull market.
Conversely, the key resistance level is at 157.7. Should the bulls cross above this key barrier, the uptrend will likely resume. If this scenario unfolds, April's high at 160.2 could be set as the next significant barrier.
Solid ECN—The USD/CHF currency pair is in a state of being overbought, according to the Demarker indicator, which hovers above the 0.7 line. As of writing, the pair has risen to test the 0.90 (Murrey 3/8) immediate resistance. If this level is breached, the next bullish target will be the 0.903 key resistance (Murrey 4/8).
Conversely, if the price dips below the key resistance level at 0.897 (Murrey 2/8), the overbought market will signal a bearish wave that will likely target 0.894 (Murrey 1/8), followed by 0.8911 key resistance.
Solid ECN—The USD/CHF bulls are trying to stabilize the price above the simple moving average (SMA) of 25 and Murrey 2/8 at 0.897, a resistance level coinciding with the Ichimoku cloud. However, the technical indicators suggest the market is bearish and the downtrend will likely resume.
Hence, if the price dips below the SMA 25, the next key resistance will be at Murrey 0/8 at 0.8911. If the selling pressure exceeds this level, the -1/8 Murrey at 0.888 could be tested again.
On the flip side, the key resistance level that supports the bearish scenario is Murrey 3/8 at 0.9. Should this level be breached, the pullback from 0.888 can extend to Murrey 4/8 at 0.903.
EUR/USD Analysis: Critical Support and Potential Rebound
Solid ECN—EUR/USD is testing the crucial $1.067 support level, while the Demarker indicator shows the market is deeply oversold. The 4-hour chart reveals uncertainty, with shooting star candlesticks appearing three times. The key resistance level is at $1.072. If the price surpasses this area, we might see a pullback to $1.078, supported by the Ichimoku cloud.
On the other hand, if the EUR/USD bears push the price below the $1.067 support, the downtrend is likely to continue.
Solid ECN - The USDJPY is currently in a strong bullish trend, with the next target likely to test June's high at 158.2.
The MACD indicator is signaling divergence, while the Demarker indicator is declining below the oversold territory. These developments in technical indicators suggest the Japanese yen might recover some of its losses. If the price dips to the lower line of the bullish flag, this demand zone, which aligns with the Ichimoku cloud, offers a good entry point to join the bull market.
Solid ECN—The Crude Oil bulls are trying to maintain the price above the 38.2% Fibonacci level and the descending trendline. The immediate resistance is June 12's high at $79.0. If the price surpasses $79, the bullish trend that started at $72 is likely to test the Ichimoku cloud and the 50% Fibonacci level.
On the other hand, the primary trend will stay bearish as long as the Crude Oil price remains below the immediate resistance. If the market falls below the immediate support at $77.3, the next bearish target will be the 23.6% Fibonacci level at $75.8.
Solid ECN—Gold prices rose to approximately $2,313 per ounce this Monday. This increase came after a drop in the last session. Throughout this week, investors are keenly observing a range of economic updates and statements from Federal Reserve officials. These observations will help them understand when the Fed might reduce interest rates.
Essential data on US retail sales will be released today. Additionally, this week will feature updates on weekly jobless claims and Friday's flash purchasing managers' indices. These reports are crucial as they provide insights into consumer spending and the overall economic health.
Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker mentioned on Monday that, based on economic forecasts, the Fed may cut its benchmark rate once this year. Traders await further comments from other Fed officials, like New York Fed President John Williams and Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin.
Eastern Tensions and Market Forces Propel Oil Futures
Solid ECN—On Wednesday, WTI crude futures maintained a price of around $80.3 per barrel, their highest in seven weeks. This spike is due to increasing conflicts in Eastern Europe and the Middle East, which have raised concerns over oil supply disruptions.
A Ukrainian drone attack recently set an oil terminal ablaze in a key Russian port. Concurrently, tensions escalate as a senior Israeli official predicts a looming full-scale conflict with Hezbollah in Lebanon. Furthermore, oil prices gained support from strong global demand projections for the latter half of the year by entities like OPEC, the IEA, and the US EIA. Key OPEC+ nations, including Russia and Iraq, continue to stick to their production limits.
Additionally, Saudi Arabia has expressed readiness to adjust its oil output depending on market needs. In contrast, recent data indicates a rise in US crude stocks by 2.264 million barrels last week, contrary to the anticipated decrease.
Solid ECN—On Thursday, gold prices were stable at around $2,330 per ounce due to weak US economic data, raising hopes that the Federal Reserve might lower interest rates soon. Recent figures indicate that US retail sales have stagnated, reflecting a decline in consumer enthusiasm.
This spending slowdown, combined with less tension in the labor and price sectors, has led the Federal Reserve to wait for more evidence of diminishing inflation before potentially reducing interest rates later this year. Austan Goolsbee, President of the Chicago Fed, praised Tuesday's latest consumer price inflation figures as "excellent" and remained hopeful about continued easing inflation.
Investors are now looking forward to this week's jobless claims and the upcoming purchasing managers' indexes on Friday to gain further insight into consumer behavior and overall economic health.
Solid ECN—The EUR/USD currency pair is correcting some of its losses from Friday. The MACD indicator shows divergence, suggesting the market might enter a consolidation phase or experience a trend reversal. Currently, the pair is in a downtrend, trading within a bearish channel and below the Ichimoku cloud. Due to the MACD's divergence, the price might rise to test the upper band of the channel and the key resistance level at 1.076.
The price must stay below the critical resistance level of 1.066 for the downtrend to continue. If this happens, the key resistance level 1.066 will likely be tested again.
However, if the price breaks above 1.076, the upward momentum from 1.066 could aim for the 1.078 resistance level.
Solid ECN—The GBP/USD currency pair fell below 1.267 on June 20. Currently, the pair is trading around 1.265, pulling back from June's all-time low of 1.262. The DeMarker indicator predicted this pullback, as it hovers below the 0.3 line, indicating oversold conditions.
The immediate resistance level is at the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level, the 1.267 mark. If the bulls push the price above this level, it could rise to test the 75-period simple moving average on the 4-hour chart, a level supported by the Ichimoku Cloud.
On the downside, the price must stay below the cloud for the downtrend to continue. Additionally, the U.S. dollar must fall below the immediate support level of 1.262 against the pound sterling.
Solid ECN—The AUD/USD pair is trading above the 50% Fibonacci level at approximately 0.664 in today's session. The pullback from 0.662 was anticipated, given that the Demarker indicator was in the oversold territory, and the market formed a long-wick bullish candlestick pattern on the 4-hour chart. The RVI lines show a bullish cross; the indicator's value rises while the MACD is above the zero line. This suggests bullish momentum is gaining strength, and the AUD/USD price will likely increase.
From a technical standpoint, the bullish trend remains valid if the pair stays above the ascending trendline and the Ichimoku cloud. Given this outlook, the next bullish target could be the 78.6% Fibonacci level at 0.667. Furthermore, if the price exceeds this level, the next resistance will be the June high at 0.670.
Conversely, a dip below the key resistance level at 0.6623 will ignite new selling pressure, which could extend the price to the 23.6% Fibonacci level at 0.660.
Solid ECN—The USD/JPY market appears overpriced, with the DeMarker indicator indicating overbought conditions. Today, the bears tested the upper boundary of the previously broken bullish channel. As of now, the price has bounced back, currently trading around 159.7.
The RVI and MACD indicators suggest that the bull market remains strong. The immediate resistance level is at 160.23. If the price surpasses this level, it will likely pave the way for the bulls to reach 165.0. However, entering a long position in an overbought market is not advisable.
We recommend waiting patiently for the price to test lower resistance levels, such as 158.2. This demand area provides a favorable bid price for traders and investors looking to join the bullish trend.
EUR/USD Update: Bullish Targets in Sight as Price Stabilizes
Solid ECN—The EUR/USD currency pair stabilizes above the broken descending trendline in the 4-hour chart. However, the price remains below the key resistance level at 1.076, indicating that the primary trend is still bearish.
Technical indicators suggest that the upward momentum starting from 1.066 will likely continue, possibly targeting the 50-period simple moving average (red line). That said, if the price stays above the immediate support at 1.070, it could test the key resistance at 1.076. Should buying pressure surpass this level, the next bullish target will be the 100-period simple moving average (blue line).
Please note that a dip below the immediate support at 1.070 could trigger a resumption of the downtrend. If this occurs, the price will initially test the 1.066 level, driven by sellers.
Solid ECN—The GBP/USD currency pair is testing significant technical levels, including the 50-period simple moving average, resistance near the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, and the Ichimoku cloud. Technical indicators suggest the bullish market may prevail, but the primary trend remains bearish as the price is below the Ichimoku Cloud.
The key support level to maintain the bullish outlook is 1.267, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. As long as buyers keep the exchange rate above this level, the price could rise to test the 38.2% Fibonacci level. Furthermore, if buying pressure pushes the price above 1.271, the bullish wave that began at 1.262 could target the 50% Fibonacci level at 1.273.
Conversely, if the GBP/USD price falls below the 1.267 support, the primary bearish trend will likely resume, potentially targeting June's all-time low at 1.262.
The AUD/USD currency pair has declined from the descending trendline, which indicates a bearish momentum as expected due to a long wick candlestick pattern forming on the 4-hour chart. The MACD indicator is approaching the zero line and is about to cross below it, signaling that the bearish momentum may continue.
From a technical perspective, if the price crosses and stabilizes below the 50% Fibonacci level, the next bearish target will be 0.662, followed by 0.660. The descending trendline acts as resistance in this bearish scenario. This bearish analysis will be invalidated if the AUD/USD price exceeds the trendline.
Solid ECN—The EUR/USD failed to maintain its position above the 23.6% Fibonacci level, resulting in a decline. As of now, the price is around 1.069. Technical indicators suggest that the bearish trend is likely to continue. The price must stay below the Ichimoku cloud for this downtrend to continue.
The immediate resistance is at 1.066. If the EUR/USD price falls below this level, it will likely move towards the 1.064 support.
On the other hand, the key resistance level is at 1.076. If the price crosses above 1.076, the bearish outlook will be invalidated. In this case, the next bullish target will be the 50% Fibonacci level at 1.079.
Solid ECN—The GBP/USD pair dipped from 1.270, a development in the U.S. price which was expected because the stochastic oscillator was in the overbought territory. Additionally, the technical indicators suggest the bear market should prevail, with the RSI below zero and the price below the Ichimoku Cloud.
From a technical standpoint, the key resistance level is 1.270. As long as the price remains below this level, the downtrend will likely resume. In this scenario, the next bearish target could be at 1.265. Furthermore, if the selling pressure exceeds 1.265, the next bearish barrier will be at 1.263.
Key resistance is at 1.270. If the bulls push the price beyond 1.270, the bearish outlook should be invalidated.
Solid ECN—Bitcoin is experiencing a bear market, trading below $62,724. Technical indicators suggest that the downtrend is likely to continue.
From a technical standpoint, the immediate resistance is at the 38.2% Fibonacci level. If the price stays below this, it will likely test the $58,213 support level.
On the other hand, if the price breaks above the descending trendline on the 4-hour chart, the bear market could end. In this case, the next bullish resistance would be at the 61.8% Fibonacci level.
