Solid ECN - Fundamental Analysis

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Silver Near 38.2% Fibonacci: Signs of Market Reversal​

Silver is currently trading near the 38.2% Fibonacci support level. On the XAGUSD 4-hour chart, a hammer candlestick pattern has emerged. The Stochastic oscillator is signaling that the market is oversold. In conclusion, if the silver price manages to stay above the Fibonacci support level, it's likely that the uptrend will continue. If this happens, the bullish target could be the 61.8% Fibonacci resistance level.​

 

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EURUSD Plunges: AO Divergence & Impact​

Solid ECN – The EURUSD currency pair experienced a sharp decline from 1.11394 in today's trading session, as previously hinted by the awesome oscillator's divergence.

Currently, the pair is testing the 23.6% Fibonacci level at 1.10403. Intriguingly, the RSI indicator is hovering near the median line and could dip below if selling pressure persists. The December 22 high at 1.1041 and the lower line of the bullish flag are jointly reinforcing the bullish trend. As long as the price stays above this level, the uptrend is likely to continue.

Conversely, a break below the bullish flag could signal further declines, with the next target being the 50% Fibonacci retracement level.​

 

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Pound Climbs to $1.28: BOE vs Fed Cuts in 2024​

Solid ECN – The British pound rose to $1.28 at the end of 2023, touching its highest level since late July and poised for a gain of near 6% for the year, as investors anticipate that the Federal Reserve will slash borrowing costs more rapidly than the Bank of England. Recent data revealing an unexpected drop in US PCE prices has significantly bolstered the probability of Fed rate reductions as early as March, with an outlook of more than 150 basis points of cuts over the upcoming year.

At the same time, the most recent UK CPI report disclosed a slowdown in inflation to 3.8% in November, marking its lowest level since September 2021 and falling below the anticipated 4.4%. This development has prompted heavy speculation among traders regarding potential interest rate cuts by the Bank of England in 2024, despite BOE Governor Andrew Bailey's insistence on maintaining higher rates for an extended period.​

 

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Istanbul's Manufacturing PMI Sees Slight Rise in December 2023​

Solid ECN – In December 2023, the Istanbul Chamber of Industry Turkey Manufacturing PMI slightly increased to 47.4 from 47.2 the previous month. This change indicates a minor improvement in the manufacturing sector's health. However, it still represents the sixth consecutive month of contraction. Tough market conditions, both domestically and internationally, caused a slowdown in new orders and decreased production.

In terms of prices, December saw another rise in input costs. This increase was driven by a weaker currency, higher wages, and increased raw material prices. Yet, the inflation rate slowed down for the fifth month in a row. On the other hand, output prices saw their sharpest increase since August.

Purchasing activities were reduced significantly, the most in four months. Consequently, input stock levels also dropped. Regarding employment, it remained stable in December, breaking a two-month trend of decline.​

 

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AUDUSD - RBA's Cautious Approach in Rate Cut Scenario​

The Australian dollar rose, reaching over $0.68. It's close to a five-and-a-half month high. This happened as people think the US Federal Reserve will lower interest rates soon, possibly in March. This expectation weakened the US dollar but helped other currencies.

Also, a report showed that China's manufacturing grew more than expected in December. This news influenced investors.

In Australia, investors are looking at what the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) might do next. Experts think the RBA will be slower to reduce rates compared to other countries. This is because it didn't raise rates as much as others. So, any rate cuts might be smaller or happen later.

Inflation in Australia is sticking around longer than in other places. RBA Governor Michele Bullock mentioned that the inflation problem is mainly local and due to increased demand. The market believes the RBA won't cut rates until the end of 2024.​

 

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2024 Starts with a Dip: U.S. Stock Futures Decline After Strong 2023​

As 2024 begins, U.S. stock futures are experiencing a slight decline, marking a pause following a robust 2023 that witnessed substantial double-digit growth across the three main indices. Currently, investors are diligently evaluating the economic landscape and monetary policy expectations, especially in anticipation of the forthcoming FOMC minutes and the crucial jobs report due later this week.

The S&P 500 futures have dropped by 0.5%, while the Dow Jones is facing a reduction of approximately 110 points, and the Nasdaq 100 is also on a downward trajectory, decreasing by 0.7%. In the realm of corporate news, Tesla has seen its stock dip by about 1% in premarket trading. Market participants are keenly waiting for the company's announcement of its annual production and delivery figures, set to be released later today.​

 

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US Dollar, China Data Influence Copper Market​

In January, copper futures dipped below $3.9 per pound, moving away from the five-month peak of $3.95 reached on December 27th. This decrease is a result of the US dollar's resurgence and some profit-taking activities by commodity trading companies.

The rebound of the US dollar, as traders evaluate the Federal Reserve's potential policy changes this year, has made copper, which is priced in this currency, more expensive for importers, leading to a drop in prices. Additionally, the demand from major Asian customers, particularly China, is under scrutiny.

The conflicting signals from China's official manufacturing PMI and the broader Caixin data have created uncertainty about the future copper demand in the country. Despite a modest rise in copper prices last year, market experts have been accumulating long positions in copper, anticipating that supply might not meet the strong future demand driven by the global push for electrification.​

 

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NZX 50 Dips Amid Global Market Jitters​

Solid ECN – On Wednesday, the NZX 50 fell by 40.36 points, a 0.34% drop, ending at 11,730.14. This followed a slight downturn in US futures after a tough start to the year on Wall Street, especially in tech stocks. Ahead of key US job data and the nonfarm payrolls report, traders seemed less hopeful about interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve.

Concerns grew as China's uncertain economic future cast a shadow, affecting its main trading partners like New Zealand. Recent data showed a decline in China's manufacturing for December, though some private surveys suggested a slight positive trend in the sector. The NZX 50 was impacted by sectors like manufacturing, transport, consumer services, and non-durables. Notably, Restaurant Brands NZ dropped 4.5%, Scales Corp. 2.9%, Auckland Intl. 2.7%, A2 Milk Co. 2.4%, and Meridian Energy Ltd. 1.8%.​

 

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Euro Slides Below $1.1 Amid Economic Data and Rate Cut Speculations

At the beginning of 2024, the euro fell below $1.1. This drop came after reaching a high of $1.1139 on December 28th. Investors are now focusing on upcoming European inflation data and the US jobs report due later this week. Additionally, recent PMI data showed that Eurozone factory activity shrank for the 18th month in a row in December.

As for monetary policy, there's an 80% chance the Fed will start reducing interest rates in March. Over the year, cuts could total more than 150 basis points. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank might also cut rates, but likely slower than the Fed, even as ECB policymakers aim for a tougher stance.​

 

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Kiwi Dollar Drops, RBNZ Rate Cuts Loom on Horizon​

Recently, the New Zealand dollar has been struggling, staying below $0.628. This is the lowest it's been in about two weeks. The reason behind this is the US dollar's strong recovery, which has led investors to rethink their previous expectations of significant interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve within the year.

Additionally, there's been a shift towards a more cautious approach in the market, resulting in a drop in both stocks and commodities. Contrarily, US Treasury yields have been on the rise. Within New Zealand, the market is anticipating four rate cuts from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) this year, with the first one possibly happening as early as May. The RBNZ’s head recently acknowledged the unexpected downturn in recent growth figures, increasing speculation about an earlier cash rate cut. Back in November, the RBNZ held the cash rate at 5.5%, narrowly avoiding a rate hike.​

 

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Yen Slides as Dollar Strengthens​

Solid ECN – The Japanese yen has recently fallen to around 142 against the dollar, moving away from its five-month high. This change comes as the dollar gains strength and investors reduce their expectations for major interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year. However, trading activity in Japan has been thin due to ongoing holiday celebrations.

At the same time, the country is dealing with the aftermath of a significant earthquake that hit its central region on New Year’s Day. Adding to the economic landscape, recent statements from Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda have sparked discussions about a potential shift away from Japan's negative interest rates policy. Last month, Ueda noted an increasing likelihood of Japan's economy emerging from its prolonged low-inflation state and reaching its inflation target. He mentioned that if the positive cycle of wages and prices strengthens enough to sustainably achieve the 2% inflation target, the Bank of Japan might consider altering its monetary policy.​

 

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Swiss Franc's Shift: Balancing SNB and Fed Rate Outlooks​

After reaching a 12-year peak of 0.841 on the last trading day of 2023, the Swiss franc has recently weakened to 0.85 against the USD. This shift occurred amid a recovery in the DXY index. Last year, the franc saw an 8.5% appreciation against the dollar, largely due to differing interest rate policies between the Swiss National Bank (SNB) and the Federal Reserve.

Recent dovish statements from Fed officials, coupled with new data indicating a slowdown in US inflation, have put pressure on the dollar. In Switzerland, despite a slowdown in inflation, the SNB has maintained a cautious stance, suggesting that higher interest rates are still necessary. Inflation in Switzerland was 1.4% in November. The central bank anticipates it will approach their 2% target by mid-2024. This forecast leads investors to believe that the SNB might delay rate cuts, especially compared to the Fed's timeline. The persistent high-interest rate expectations for the SNB also drove the franc to unprecedented levels against the Euro, the currency of its neighboring countries.​

 

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Canadian Dollar Weakens, Awaits Key Labor Market Data​

The Canadian dollar recently fell beyond 1.33 against the USD, moving away from its five-month high of 1.32 achieved on December 26th. This decline is largely due to a resurgence of the US dollar, disappointing domestic economic indicators, and a decrease in foreign currency inflows.

Canada's manufacturing sector experienced its most significant contraction since the 2020 pandemic downturn, posing challenges for the central bank's efforts to control inflation through tighter monetary policy. Additionally, the easing concerns over global oil demand have impacted foreign exchange inflows, negatively affecting the Canadian dollar's strength. Investors are now looking forward to the upcoming labor market data, expected on Friday, to gain insights into potential future directions for monetary policy.​

 

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WTI Futures Drop Below $69.5, Market Weighs Supply and Risk​

On Wednesday, WTI crude futures experienced a notable decline, dropping over 1.5% to reach a three-week low, falling below $69.5 per barrel. This downturn came on the heels of a 1.8% loss in the previous session, influenced by a broad selloff in risk assets. This selloff occurred despite rising tensions in the Middle East, which might typically bolster oil prices. As the new year began, the market's mood was cautious, with stocks and other risky assets facing downward pressure. This sentiment was further influenced by a rebound in the dollar and Treasury yields, as investors recalibrated their expectations for significant rate cuts from major central banks.

Contributing to the oil price drop is the increase in global supplies, especially from non-OPEC countries, combined with a shaky demand forecast. Additionally, traders are keeping a watchful eye on geopolitical events, particularly Iran's recent deployment of a warship in the Red Sea, seen as a challenge to US forces in this crucial trade corridor. Over the weekend, there was a confrontation when US Navy helicopters intercepted three Houthi boats that were attempting to hijack a container ship in the Red Sea, leading to casualties.​

 

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Sector and Regional Shifts in Job Openings for November 2023​

Solid ECN – In November 2023, there was a noticeable drop in the number of available jobs, reaching the lowest point since March 2021. The total fell to 8.790 million, which was 62,000 fewer than the previous month and slightly under the anticipated 8.85 million. This decline was particularly evident in specific sectors and regions. Transportation, warehousing, and utilities saw a significant reduction of 128,000 job openings, while federal government positions decreased by 58,000. However, it wasn't all downward trends; the wholesale trade sector experienced a boost, adding 63,000 jobs.

The regional impact varied, with the South experiencing the largest decrease in job opportunities, losing 128,000 positions. The Northeast and the West also witnessed declines, with 29,000 and 7,000 fewer jobs, respectively. In contrast, the Midwest bucked the trend by showing an increase of 102,000 job openings.​

 

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NZX 50’s Comeback: A Detailed Analysis​

Solid ECN – On Thursday, the NZX 50 index made a comeback. It rose by 28.98 points or 0.25%, ending at 11,759.11. This was after a slow start with minor losses. The turnaround happened when a private report showed that service activities in China, a major trade partner, reached a five-month high in December.

Market players were optimistic. They hoped that Chinese authorities would shift from yuan stabilization to monetary easing. This came after the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) significantly weakened the currency fixing, the most in over six months. US futures also saw a slight increase, boosting market sentiment. Investors were still processing the latest Federal Reserve minutes, which hinted at potential rate cuts in 2024.

In company news, PaySauce, a fintech firm, reported a 23% annual increase in its recurring revenue for the fiscal quarter ending on December 31st. The day’s top performers included industrial services, consumer durables, and utilities sectors. In terms of individual stocks, Scales Corp. led the pack with a 3.0% jump. It was followed by Meridian Energy Ltd. (2.8%), Comvita NPV (2.6%), and Hallenstein Glassons Holdings (1.3%).​

 

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Japanese Equities Dip: Nikkei 225 Hits Two-Week Low in Volatile Trade​

Solid ECN – In Thursday's post-holiday trading session, the Nikkei 225 Index experienced a significant drop, initially plunging by 2.3% and finally closing 0.53% lower at 33,288. This marked a two-week low point for the index, as it aligned with the global market trend of substantial losses. The beginning of the new year brought with it a cautious approach from investors. Many opted to secure their gains and reduce their expectations regarding the magnitude of interest rate reductions by major central banks within the current year.

Japan faced additional internal turmoil. The country was struck by a devastating earthquake, resulting in the tragic loss of at least 65 lives. Further adding to the chaos was an incident at Tokyo's Haneda airport, involving a collision with Japan Airlines. This series of events put additional pressure on the stock market.

Technology sectors bore the brunt of the downturn, with notable companies like Tokyo Electron, SoftBank Group, Disco Corp, Lasertec, and Advantest witnessing steep declines in their stock values. These companies saw their shares fall by 5%, 3.9%, 3.9%, 5.3%, and 3.8% respectively. Other prominent companies in the index, such as Fast Retailing, Sony Group, and Shin-Etsu Chemical, also experienced notable drops in their share prices.

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Technical Analysis​

The JP225 Index, also known as the Nikkei, has recently experienced a rebound from the 32,689 mark. This particular point is in close proximity to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level.

At present, the index is undergoing a test of the lower band of what was previously a bullish flag pattern. The pivot point in this scenario is at the 33,423 mark. For the continuation of the bullish bias, it is imperative that buyers achieve a close above this pivot point. Should there be a failure to surpass the pivot, it would likely result in a decline in the index's price.

Under such circumstances, the initial target would be set at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. Following this, the next level of support would be at the 50% Fibonacci retracement level.​

 

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Canadian Dollar Dips Beyond 1.33 USD

The value of the Canadian dollar has recently decreased, now exceeding 1.33 against the US dollar. This decline follows a notable peak at 1.32 on December 26th, which was the highest in five months. Several factors contribute to this shift: a strengthening US dollar, underwhelming economic data within Canada, and a decrease in foreign currency coming into the country.

Particularly impactful was the manufacturing PMI in Canada, which saw its most significant reduction since the 2020 pandemic-induced downturn. This situation constrains the Central Bank of Canada's ability to implement strict policies to combat inflation. Additionally, a global reduction in oil demand is affecting the foreign exchange inflows, further weakening the Canadian dollar. Investors are now keenly anticipating the upcoming labor market data, set to be released on Friday, hoping it will shed light on the potential direction of future monetary policy.​

 

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NZX 50's Slight Dip Amid Global Uncertainty​

Solid ECN – Heading into 2024, New Zealand's NZX 50 saw a slight decline, ending at 11,748.49 on the last day of the week. This minor fall of 0.1% encapsulated the market's tepid response to international economic signals. Notably, Wall Street's sluggish beginning to the new year played a role in this downturn.

Furthermore, speculation is rife regarding potential shifts in US Federal Reserve interest rates, adding to the air of uncertainty. This, coupled with the anticipation of December's job report, has prompted a cautious approach from investors.

In New Zealand, there's a mixed sentiment among economists about the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's (RBNZ) future moves. While some predict a possible change in the cash rate by August, confidence in this forecast remains moderate. Shifting focus to China, New Zealand's key trading ally, Goldman Sachs anticipates that the People's Bank of China might lower the reserve requirement ratio twice in 2024, aiming to bolster the nation's economic rebound.

Specific sectors like consumer durables, energy minerals, and technology services contributed to the NZX 50's decline. Leading the downward trend were companies such as Infratil Ltd., Gentrack Group Ltd., Briscoe Group, and Property for Industry, all experiencing notable drops in their stock values.​

 

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Crude Futures Steady Amidst Market Flux

On Friday, WTI crude futures maintained a steady position above $72 per barrel. This stability reflects a complex market situation where weakening demand in the United States contrasts with the impact of supply interruptions in Libya. Just the day before, oil prices experienced a notable drop of 2.3%, but later recovered slightly. This fluctuation was primarily influenced by recent US data revealing a surprising surge in gasoline reserves. Last week, gasoline stocks rose sharply by 10.9 million barrels, marking the most significant increase in over 30 years. Additionally, there was an unexpected rise in distillate inventories, which grew by 10.1 million barrels, far surpassing the anticipated increase of 400,000 barrels. Contrasting these increases, crude oil reserves saw a reduction of 5.5 million barrels.

At the same time, market attention remains focused on Libya, where ongoing protests have disrupted oil production at the Sharara and El-Feel fields. These fields are significant, contributing around 365,000 barrels of oil per day. In a separate development, Iran is grappling with a tragic event. Two explosions occurred during a ceremony honoring the late military leader Qassem Soleimani, resulting in almost 100 deaths and many injuries.​