4600
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4600
The mean of 4730 and 4600 would be 4665, price stayed below this and would not push through it, SOW.
dbphoenix
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4593.25.
That's your first trading opportunity.
Beginning Dec 2, price began making a series of lower highs and higher lows. What does this signify?
Chop, equilibrium, hinge?
4659
dbphoenix
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And where did price find resistance from 2000 yesterday until early this morning?
That's your second trading opportunity.
All of this has to be done in real time. "Is" and "will be" have to replace "was" and "would have been". Otherwise all your trades will be in hindsight
That's your second trading opportunity.
All of this has to be done in real time. "Is" and "will be" have to replace "was" and "would have been". Otherwise all your trades will be in hindsight
4659! Thanks Db.
dbphoenix
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Price made a higher high the day before, so if one is using lines, that justifies fanning the line. However, the news is the failure to make a higher high. Breaking the line is nothing more than confirmation. The trading opportunities begin at that point. Whether or not you take them depends on your individual trading plan, how it relates to the danger point, and whether or not you're available (a) to see the opportunities in real time and (b) to take them.
Db
Db
When I stated that 12-2 made a HH, I was referring to the last swing high on 11-4. Price makes a higher swing low on 11-16 and then price makes another swing high on 12-2. even though it was an upthrust, do you still fan the TL? If so, we are still trending correct? On 12-3 and 12-4 price broke below the TL but instantly came back above it. But on 12-9 price broke the fanned TL again and couldn't make it back above it. Is it at this point price switched from trending to ranging?
I guess I don't understand why after price broke the fanned TL and then retraced back to it, why that retracement wasn't a legitimate entry?
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dbphoenix
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How are you going to know in real time whether it's an "upthrust" or not? As for the demand line, it's irrelevant. No one sees it, except, possibly, SLAyers. What matters is that there has been a change in the balance and that price has stopped trending. This can be seen by anyone who cares to look that price has failed to make a higher high. Those who are using the SLA or something similar will be able to confirm that as their demand line is broken at the same time that price fails to make a higher high (your lines are drawn incorrectly, right to left). Those who aren't using the SLA will be able to see it nonetheless, even if they don't use charts. That means potentially a lot of company. Those who see it and act on what they see will conduct trades. It is up to you to monitor those trades via their prints and determine the most likely course of those trades. Fanning or not fanning lines is not an important concern.
When price fails to make a higher high, you have a trading opportunity. It has nothing to do with lines. What is that trading opportunity? Where does it occur? At what point can you enter that trade? How will you manage it? What will be your risk? If you want to wait until price breaks the line you've drawn and enter there, there's nothing to stop you. But you'll be 150pts away from the danger point. If that's acceptable, then go for it. If not, then re-analyze the trade, learn what you can from it, and apply what you learn to future trades.
Db
When price fails to make a higher high, you have a trading opportunity. It has nothing to do with lines. What is that trading opportunity? Where does it occur? At what point can you enter that trade? How will you manage it? What will be your risk? If you want to wait until price breaks the line you've drawn and enter there, there's nothing to stop you. But you'll be 150pts away from the danger point. If that's acceptable, then go for it. If not, then re-analyze the trade, learn what you can from it, and apply what you learn to future trades.
Db
So price stopped trending when on 12-7 price was stopped at the vertical SL and failed to make a HH?
How is my DL drawn wrong? Should I have fanned it to the 11-13 low instead of the 11-16 low? If so, why?
dbphoenix
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Yes, you had your DL drawn correctly. But, for some reason, you focused on whether or not your line was off by ten points rather than take the trade. The supply line that should have been drawn from the high (see my charts and the charts posted by manraygun and gringo) was broken on the 18th and a new demand line was begun then.
All of this is in the posts beginning at the end of October with accompanying charts. I suggest you print all of that out and study it in sequence.
Db
All of this is in the posts beginning at the end of October with accompanying charts. I suggest you print all of that out and study it in sequence.
Db
dbphoenix
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Gring0
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Not knowing the future I must humbly rely on sketching lines. AMT at play here potentially. Changing mind from one direction to another is something worth marveling at.
Waiting for important weekly and daily levels makes life so much easier. Slower at times is faster as one can avoid ending up in a ditch.
Gringo
Waiting for important weekly and daily levels makes life so much easier. Slower at times is faster as one can avoid ending up in a ditch.
Gringo
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dbphoenix
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Perhaps more than potentially. The mean of the channel I'm looking at is 4490-4500, and that appears to be good given this morning's activity. The November low is something that everyone is looking at.
Db
dbphoenix
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I don't know anyone who's daytrading this, but I find it interesting to note that Wyckoff's guidance on volume applies regardless of the interval.
The shaded area is what I referred to above, yesterday.
The first double arrow illustrates preliminary support.
The second illustrates the climax. Note that volume is less.
The third illustrates the technical rally. Volume (activity) is greater but not extraordinary.
The fourth illustrates the test. Activity is much less, as is selling pressure, i.e., price holds.
The fifth illustrates the conductor looking out the window to make sure there's nothing dragging on the train and that no one is being left behind. Volume is low. No one and nothing is interfering with the train. Those who aren't into train metaphors may detect a little hinge, a type of springboard.
With the exception of old salts, traders nowadays "know" so much about volume that isn't true, largely due to vendors who portray volume as the key to the kingdom. But those who do understand it have an insight into the inner workings of the minds of buyers and sellers at critical junctures, and this insight can provide the tipping point between taking the trade and letting it pass.
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