See it now

[superfly]

Guess1:
When I play chess with my daughter she asks me "daddy how do you always seem to know what I am going to do?" ...how do I indeed care to guess ?

Guess1:
Important is that you and your daughter acknowledge the same chess rules
You currently seem to understand chess and the both of you better than your daughter does. So you can dictate the game in such a way that she in fact only has limited (known)options to play.

 

[superfly]

Superfly

"When it is not in our power to determine what is true, we ought to follow what is most probable."
~ Rene Descartes (1596-1650)

 

[superfly]

Guess2

Chump,

Guess2:
If you play any strategic games how do you get an edge ? Rhetorical question , by anticipating what your opponent will do when faced with certain circumstances , but how do you make such an anticipatory projection ? care to guess ?

The market dictates price excursion, noise and everything in between. So carving out an edge based on consistently "beating" this immeasurably strong boss must be totally eliminated from my agenda. (priority 1)

Instead, the central principle and correct mindset for my trading related thinking is:
Only support the boss timely when he wins for as long as he wins. (priority 2)

As you know, the problem of making useful anticipatory predictions of a financial market(the boss) is one that has captured not only the mind and aspirations of traders but also the minds and journals of the academic world. Because these predictions can be very useful in both market analysis and in trading strategies.

I did a search on this subject and there are a lot of technical, fundamental, econometric and neural network solutions to this problem. Just to name a few. In short there are many ways to (try) to skin this valuable cat effectively.

That brings me to "How do I make such an anticipatory projection?
For my kind of trading I exploit market-based signals in 2 steps:
[1]-selection of a set of salient explanatory variables
[2]-model to transform recent readings of [1] into a contextual assesments, signals,
projections and estimates

Chump, how do you in general go about skinning this valuable cat named "anticipatory
projection"?

 

[chump]

In general ?

I never forget what I am doing and why I am doing it...sounds silly don't you think that anyone could even begin to forget this ,but they do en masse I can assure you and perhaps the word "forget" is not the right word.

So are you here to make money as efficiently as possible , or do you have some other reason for doing all this ? Don't answer that as it would be meaningless.Lot's of people would answer that question in the affirmative ,but when you dissect what they are actually doing it all falls apart.

In chess terms I am always willing to give up my Queen when winning the game as a result is a certainty...in trading terms my goal is always to adhere to my risk to reward goal regardless of whatever anyone else may be doing. In this way I am only playing my game. I am controlling what I can control.

I always have my chumpometre switched on to spot the 'greater fool' who will assist me with achieving my goals.....so if you can't resist taking my Queen please go ahead , don't think about it and what the consequences may be..just go ahead and take it ,because then you are playing my game and not your own and once again I am controlling what I can control based upon my knowledge of human behaviour. That's a very crude example by the way in order to make my point obvious.

This is all a peculiar mixture of discipline ,patience ,control, blended with, empathy , adaptation and pyschonumeric skills .....LOL I may have just invented a new word

If you think about this you can see why the mechanical will always at some point test to destruction...that is stops working according to expectation....it does not include empathy to identify the type of game it is in and thus fails to adapt to what is required to achieve it's goals.

Going back to my earlier post. My daughter understands all the basic rules of the game perfectly well. She's read and understands at least some of the variants of the game ,but she cannot yet distinguish when she is playing her own game and when in fact she is playing the game that I am dictating for her. When she can she'll probably start beating me at least some of the time.

Anticipatory projection....well where will you find the 'greater fool' who does not know why they are here....or phrase it another way where does price have to be to create a risk reward goal acceptable to you which piggybacks the 'greater fool' into helping you.

 

[superfly]

In general ?
....or phrase it another way where does price have to be to create a risk reward goal acceptable to you which piggybacks the 'greater fool' into helping you.

Someone mentioned the "domino-effect" on these boards lately as something fundamental worth to consider:


regards

 

[superfly]

3 april 2006

R3=3730
R2=3700
R1=3660
S1=3625
S2=3695
S3=3555

economic news
Construction Spending 10:00 ET
ISM Mfg Index 10:00 ET
Pending Home Sales Index 10:00 ET

 

[superfly]

In general ?
So are you here to make money as efficiently as possible?
Lot's of people would answer that question in the affirmative ,but when you dissect what they are actually doing it all falls apart.

The only solution I see is to get honest and specific about the gap between "current actions" and the best take on "to be". Although, understanding this gap is just a starting point. Understanding alone will not make you successful.

Once you understand the mayor issues related to you current behaviour, the focus must shift to:
-repare/eliminate all weak spots;
-bring (all) the "to be" aspirations to a pragmatic feasible functional level.

One by one, inch by inch. Honesty, understanding, determination and inch by inch planning and discipline.

In chess terms I am always willing to give up my Queen when winning the game as a result is a certainty...in trading terms my goal is always to adhere to my risk to reward goal regardless of whatever anyone else may be doing. In this way I am only playing my game. I am controlling what I can control.

Thanks Chump. Because control is very important, I was wondering do you generally use market stop or market limit orders to get you in for a short term trade? Or ....
And any use for pawns in your trading game?

 

[superfly]

Perfection

This is the very perfection of a man, to find out his own imperfection.
Saint Augustine (354 AD - 430 AD)

 

[superfly]

4-4-06

R3=3730
R2=3700
R1=3660
S1=3620
S2=3660
S3=3550

economic news
-Challenger Job-Cut Report 7:30 ET
-ICSC-UBS Store Sales 7:45 ET
-Redbook 8:55 ET

 

[chump]

"I was wondering do you generally use market stop or market limit orders to get you in for a short term trade" ...don't look to clone me find out what works best for your system. No secret ,I trail limit orders to get in ,but your system might be better off with a different approach..test it and see.
"pawns"...every piece on the board as a part to play in passing financial risk so I guess the question would be who do you think are the pawns and do you see pawns as having a particular value in the game...I know some people put a connotation on the word pawn as being something of an inferior piece with low value..I don't subscribe to that view.

 

[superfly]

"...don't look to clone me

I dont clone people.
I clone good ideas, if they are useful (empathy)

 

[chump]

LOL .....touche

 

[superfly]

5-4-06

R3=3725
R2=3700
R1=3660
S1=3620
S2=3665
S3=3545

economic news
MBA Purchase Applications 7:00 ET
ISM Non-Mfg Survey 10:00 ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report 10:30 ET

 

[superfly]

6-4-06

R3=3900
R2=3850
R1=3750
S1=3730
S2=3700
S3=3660

economic news
BOE Announcement 7:00 ET
ECB Announcement 7:45 ET
Jobless Claims 8:30 ET
EIA Natural Gas Report 10:30 ET

 

[superfly]

7-4-06

R3=3900
R2=3850
R1=3790
S1=3730
S2=3700
S3=3660

economic news
Employment Situation 8:30 ET
Wholesale Trade 10:00 ET
Consumer Credit 3:00 ET

 

[superfly]

"pawns"...every piece on the board as a part to play in passing financial risk so I guess the question would be who do you think are the pawns and do you see pawns as having a particular value in the game...I know some people put a connotation on the word pawn as being something of an inferior piece with low value..I don't subscribe to that view.

My current hypothesis on this:
Pawns are little testing path-finders. Some tests are important some aren't. Traders just testing the boundaries. Yes, exactly those non-overlapping breache of the boundaries. If there is no (inter-market) followup, expect price confusion. If there is (strong inter-market) following on/preceding the initial test, price should move.

 

[frugi]

Could one also say that, as in music, the silences are equally important? Take dub music for example, the whole feel of it depends on space and gaps between notes/chords. Is there a parallel with trading here, in that a (relative) lack of activity can be as telling as a flurry of it?

 

[frugi]

Cheers Mark for a very useful post. Blueprint / expected potential vs actual transactions, yes I can see how that can reveal a lot to one who is correctly attuned to the scenario. A seeming no-brainer opportunity for the bulls presents itself yet it isn't taken ... caveat emptor.

Now hit me with a 3/2 clave with a touch of rubato (you give a little; we take a little - as ever)

 

[superfly]

motives from the smarter player

....there is no such thing as noise....just a lack of comprehension of data....you try removing expression notes in music...or lose a note here or there.....takes on a completely different sound and feel....every trade has motive and purpose ...noise to some...is music others ....first accept the fact there is no noise.....then make it your objective to tackle the task in learning the required knowledge.

also.....there is no such state as market indecision....again...each trade has been made decisively and with motive......there is however a lack of consensus....the terms are confused....what looks like a messy channel etc....to the trained ...they will be able to see the motives from the smarter players and therefore know which way a break will come.

the major true quality a trader needs is empathy...this will lead any market..

cheers mark j

Growing(diminishing/lack of) consensus is preciser. "Noise" might feed the believe that there is no valuable information made available. Same goes for confusion instead of indecision.

Thanks Mark

 

[superfly]

Empathy

the major true quality a trader needs is empathy...this will lead any market..
cheers mark j

Thank you both, Chump and Mr. Marcus, for highlighting the importance of this skill.