SB Bias!

Back in the real world,

probookie,

I have read up on binaries and can see where your coming from. Betfair also do an over and under on the Dow/Ftse. Would you consider hedging against the fixed odds market or would you just take a position on the binaries market (when it is obviously out of whack) and see it out to the close of play or a profitable position?

dbt
 
Kilnside,

* I thought he did say who he worked for when he posted a rebuttal to one of Mma's recent accusations. So no "secret" there.*

Really ? then who is it that he works for ? and what accusation is this ? I don't recall making any * accusation * , just a simple question ???
 
Clearly a number of questions to answer...

1: Hedging policy...

All SB bookmakers take on at least some exposure. If they didn't, and went away to hedge every single trade, they would make very little in the way of profits. This is for the simple reason that hedging costs money, both in terms of market spread and broker commission.

A bookie hedging/not hedging is a risk-managment decision, rather than a view for or against underlying clients. All sensible bookmaking companies assume that, in the long run, some clients will win and a slightly larger number will lose; what matters is to ensure that any large aggregate position that builds up because of client business is monitored and contained by making hedging trades to keep its size within a preset limit.

This isn't the easiest thing to get across, so let me give an example:

On the daily dow, a company might start the day pretty flat, exposure-wise. The company sees a £10 buyer here, a £50 seller there, etc and will do nothing. If, however, the consensus of client opinion is that today will be an up-day, then clients as a whole will be going long. So, as the day develops, the bookie will go shorter and shorter. Eventually he will go shorter than what policy dictates to be prudent. At this point he will go into the market, buying dow jones futures contracts or, more likely, S&P futures as a hedge. He will buy just enough to bring himself back under his limit. So if the limit is +/-£1000 per point, and client biz takes him short £1100 per point, he will buy just £100 per point-equivalent in the futures market, and see where client biz takes the exposure from there.

There is no discretion about whether or not to hedge, and no notice is taken of which clients have built up the position. Your particular bet may end up getting hedged, or it may not - it's really nothing personal.

Some less intelligent salesmen try to turn hedging policy into some kind of marketing tool - i.e. "we hedge everything, so we want you to win, unlike companies x, y and z". This is a pretty weak argument. Firstly, they are lying about their company policy, at least to some extent. Secondly, if they genuinely are hedging everything you do then they'll have to read the price aggressively against you every time you trade, or they'll make no money (because they're paying away most of the spread they receive from you). Thirdly, bookmakers don't actively cheer on client misfortune. If a client is a nice guy and is clearly a reasonable person, seeing him make money doesn't particularly annoy us (I speak as someone who once saw a particular client take £200,000 out of my book on one particular evening a couple of years ago. We still chat about it when he phones in). If a client is known to be a complete w*nker then we laugh when he loses and wish him extreme malice when he wins. That's human nature. But the personal views of dealers has no effect on the (automated) prices at which a client deals, and most dealers are bright enough to understand that profits or losses at the level of individual clients don't mean anything. Take enough business and the magic of spread/efficient markets will make you plenty of money in the long run.

It is true that some companies hedge more than others. But this isn't because they want to be "on your side", it's because they have unsophisticated risk management systems and therefore can't be relaxed about aggregating and monitoring net client positions.

It's difficult to know individual hedging policies for sure, but I'd put CMC and IG towards the "not hedging" end of the spectrum, and City and Cantor towards the "hedge it all" end. But don't take my opinion as gospel.

2: Arbers

I think someone else correctly answered this one. We don't like arbers because, in the long run, they always win and the bookmaking industry always loses. No company is so arrogant as to believe that the spread they make is always correct, and that they are always going to end up on the right side of an arb. It's a straightforward transfer of wealth from the two bookmakers involved to the arber. In the long run each bookmaker will end up wearing half the loss.

3: Spreads on US shares

Again, already answered correctly. I don't think the company involved would have widened the spread out of malice - that's bad for business and, apart from that, is labour intensive. Most dealers would rather all trades went through automatically, as it involves less work. It's probable that you were dealing in a size too big for the order book at that moment. It's the same reasoning as that behind not quoting dailies round the cash - if we can't deal at a certain level, it's daft to let clients do it.

4: Arbing binaries against Betfair prices

Possible, but don't forget that betfair take 4% out of you if you win, so it's difficult to create a robust arb.

5: Who I work for

No great secret, as I did reveal it in response to clearly libellous posting by another user (since edited by the moderator). But I'd prefer not to talk about my company. For what it's worth I think we're about as honest/respectable as they come (not saying much in the world of bookmaking, perhaps). But there will be inevitably be people out there who've had problems with us and I'd prefer not to waste everyone's time in slanging matches over long-dead disputes.
 
Thanks for the interesting posts prbookie. It has always made me laugh that some people seem to think spread bet firms hedge all their customers positions and only make money on the spreads. With small bets on the Dow, I can't see how it is possible to hedge other than the way you have explained.

One further question. There are lots of trading schemes being marketed on the internet claiming high percentage of winners and that it is easy to make money from the spread bet companies. I personally believe that 99% of these are just scams to take money from naive punters. I don't want to publicise any of these schemes but I have noted that one of the popular ones works on a pivot point type system. This means that everyone who pays for the system should be buying and selling at the same time. So do the spread bet companies have to take any notice of this?
 
probookie

obviously you are not going to hedge every 5c bet, but not being fully hedged on your overall book would seem to be a very dangerous game to play for spreadbettors - and since to hedge a £50 bet on the S&P would cost about .32 of a point for spread and brokerage, -are you saying that

a) spreadbettors could not make money on that cost

and/or

b) experience has taught spreadbettors that since most of their clients always get it wrong, that there is no point to hedge all the unbalanced book, except to a degree that is prudent for financial integrity - that is since the level of the imbalance would represent the majority of the bettors positioins,and as most get it wrong, the level of imbalance will always indicate the losing side

personally i think it extremely dangerous for a spreadbetting company to be unhedged, ( and i note that u mention Cantor as being one that is fully hedged and Cantor as a group is a very experienced trading company), but i guess the reality is that your exposure in anyone day is such that if you found the trend of unhedged positons to be causing on-going losses, you could just revert to a fully hedged position

and as most gamblers cut winners and run losers, perhaps it does make sense that you can run unhedged positions - how much does it cost to start up a spreadbetting company!
 
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mma

Who he works for is only important to you. I was just correcting the impression that he didn't have the balls to say. Clearly you missed the reply to your own post.

As to your accusation, the clue is " try your own post of 10/09"

quote

If you think so called FSA regulated firms will not tamper with the trade logs and the like, then you got another thing coming .

My friend had a similar problem with a broker [sic], and the up shot was that they changed both the logs and their standard agreement to cover up the fact that they made a trade , to which they afterwards regretted - ie. they lost money on it .

unquote


This is a great thread. Try to keep up.
 
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Bigbusiness

I take the view that all trading schemes that you have to pay for should be viewed with extreme caution. I'm not going to name names, but one of the individuals who is well known in this kind of area has lost several times his transaction charges with us over the years. It's a cliche, but an untrained chimpanzee could have done better.

He may, of course, have seen significant offsetting profits at other companies. But I doubt it.

We don't notice any particular groups of people following the same strategy, so these kinds of characters may have a smaller following than they often claim.

Stevet

I think you've put your finger on a major cause for concern. Taking on client exposure clearly increases the standard deviation of daily results of a trading company and, if taken to extremes, could even jeopardize a company's financial stability. However, the exposure a firm is allowed to stand, relative to their balance sheet, is strictly regulated by the FSA. They tend to take monitoring this sort of thing extremely seriously.

In my company we have recurrent religious wars over what the correct hedging ratios on various products should be. But we never even come close to the limits set by the FSA, and as far I know, neither do any other companies.

You're dead right about the total hedging cost on the S&P. 0.3pts is about right. However, if a company charges only 1-2 points on the S&P, and makes maybe 0.5-1pt after establishment costs, gross profits tax, bad debts etc, hedging suddenly looks a lot more expensive. Hedging it means each trade brings in 0.2pts for your bottom line, rather than 0.5pts - i.e. you slash annual earnings by 60%, purely because you are playing hyper-safe. And that's why no company (even Cantor) hedges off everything, regardless of what they might claim.

On the subject of how we view the chances of clients' success, you've also got a valid point. If we believed the average client was going to make money, the rational policy would be to hedge everything. But we've got reams of empirical evidence that, in the long run, the average client loses the total spread paid (albeit with a huge dispersal of results between individuals). So it's not a question of believing that people are good traders or bad traders, or of wishing clients well or ill. When a client bets, I don't know if he's a king trader or a massive loser, and frankly I don't care. I just know that, on average , the company will make slightly more by not hedging the deal than by hedging it.
 
Morning probookie,

I think you have gained a lot of respect for coming onto this board and being so open and frank about the inner workings of the SB firms. So, I would like to thank you once again for sharing with us.

On a lighter note ....... Out of the all the strategies on SB that you have read on this board. Which have impressed you most and which have made you laugh?

dbt
 
It is important who he works for , it's called credibilty . Otherwise , it could be a complete con , he /I anyone could say they worked for co.X , whereas in fact , he may not do . Therefore he would not have the right to talk . Quite simple really .

I have worked with Finspreads and I have seen their INTERNAL ACCOUNTS firsthand , so I state that , I am not ashamed of it . What's the problem ?

As for your little quote , it's not only me that has had problems with bookies , in fact another person started that thread , something which you conveniently left out .
why don't you give a link to that thread since you are so
*concerned * ?

In fact I will soon post evidence in support if my episode with IG.

I pressume his socalled rebuttal was directed at me , if so where is it , I would like to see it .


Some may have a fantasy of talking to a real live SB employee , but I can tell you that most other people couldn't give a damn . They would much rather SB firms act fairly and responsibly , and if not then be exposed for what they are .

By apologising for them you are effectively encouraging them to do what they want without accountability.

What I saw at Finspreads was that at least 40/50% of their bets are unhedged , I doubt whether they would change this for anything , since if they did hedge this , profits would be down by a couple of million . NO WAY will they accept that . They just think they are better than clients , and when clients start winning * too much * , then more made-up rules kick in . It happened to me and I still won from them.

Lastly , no doubt that mixed in with his would be altruism is the none too honest motive of promoting himself , his firm and the industry in general.

I just think to leave this totally unquestioned is unhealty and biased.

* this is a great thread , try and keep up *

Actually , I don't care about keeping up , I come here at my complete leisure , unlike some people who's life it is to come to this board. I have other things like trading to do, my time is limited.


*On a lighter note ....... Out of the all the strategies on SB that you have read on this board. Which have impressed you most and which have made you laugh? *

I just noticed this one and it's so bad I had to reply . The man said himself he does NOT trade , how would he know which are the best strategies or not ? or is this another way to grovell up ?
 
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Great thread, and nice to hear a reasoned and clear explanation. Something which is distinctly lacking on most BB's. Well done for those who have contributed to the dicussions. Thanks to Probookie for being brave enough and taking the time to post.
 
Thanks all, for the answers.

As for wide spreads, I take your argument Paul, the problem there is that SBs are lumping all betters into the same pile. From your example, if someone buys 100 shares they pay $20.21, if they want 1,000 they pay an average of $20.27, which is fair. With a SB you would still pay the same whether you’re betting £1 or £10 per point. Surely they should only have wide spreads for large bets.
Further to your reply Probookie, I never even entered that position, I looked at the quote and thought “no way”. It was that particular incident that made me close my a/c down, I just thought it was pointless trying to use a SB. Unfortunately, a lot of people don’t have $25k sloshing around to open a day-trade a/c.

Probookie said:
Some less intelligent salesmen try to turn hedging policy into some kind of marketing tool - i.e. "we hedge everything, so we want you to win, unlike companies x, y and z". This is a pretty weak argument.


Unfortunately this is what is happening, maybe regulators need to get on the case.

Probookie said:
If a client is known to be a complete w*nker then we laugh when he loses and wish him extreme malice when he wins. That's human nature. But the personal views of dealers has no effect on the (automated) prices at which a client deals,


What if the price is requited (for say a large bet), which happens on one SB I know, there would be a chance to shaft a w*nker then.

Just my “cynical” thoughts.

Many thanks for your posts.
 
Probookie

Any half-baked nerd could find one or more elements in what you have posted and pick a fight, but the point is you have given both bald information and opinion as an insider on the current operation of UK SB firms.

That has been a much needed contribution to the T2W BB's. I say, thank you for your efforts and patience.

A question of my own: where you mention hedging and you have, say, a client who regularly makes big money, would you mirror his play for hedging reasons or simply to make money for your firm? Or would you leave it to your hedging ratio on all business from all clients?
 
Hi all,

Altho I haven't been through all the posts here with a fine tooth comb, I think there is an important point for peeps to be aware of;

Whilst the e.g.DOW cash spread price is based around the futures, it should be born in mind that when the daily price cash closes at market close, any open positions are closed against the closing price, WITHOUT any spread whatsoever. So although nearer closing time, it would seem logical that the SB company moves the cash spread closer to the actual index, astute traders can take advantage of this scenario on occasions and particularly so if they are aware of it.
I know there are traders on this site who have used this strategy,a nd made a few bob out of it, and apparently as a a result the SB co's have become a bit more astute at their price fixing aws well. Still, there are likely to be occasions when we can use this to our advantage....
 
* Unfortunately this is what is happening, maybe regulators need to get on the case. *

Won't happen since the regulators are corrupt and inept . They don't have qualified staff - who would know the difference between a stock index and an index finger .

Believe me I speak from experience.


* Probookie said:
If a client is known to be a complete w*nker then we laugh when he loses and wish him extreme malice when he wins. That's human nature. But the personal views of dealers has no effect on the (automated) prices at which a client deals,

What if the price is requited (for say a large bet), which happens on one SB I know, there would be a chance to shaft a w*nker then.

Just my “cynical” thoughts. *


No need to be apologetic .With so many SB's actions bordering on the criminal , one would be foolish not to be at least a bit sceptical .

What is for sure is that SB firms hate winners whatever their feelings about individual clients. Like I said the more the clients win the less the firm makes and guess who's bonuses get smaller.

I have a near constant winning account with FS and you woudn't believe some of the crap they did to hinder me - took away my credit facility , banned on the stop orders , minimised the level I could place my stop loss etc etc .
 
Fudgestain

"A question of my own: where you mention hedging and you have, say, a client who regularly makes big money, would you mirror his play for hedging reasons or simply to make money for your firm? Or would you leave it to your hedging ratio on all business from all clients?"

From time to time we toy with this idea. But it's very difficult to spot a genuine winner - if you have a client base of several thousand clients, you're going to see some phenomenal success stories purely by chance. The question is, how many winning trades must a client do before they are "significant" winners("significant" in the statistical sense)? It's a question to which we've never found a satisfactory answer.

We had one client who built up a trading profit of £1.5m over a period of 3 months. We could see exactly what his strategy was: he was counter-trending. So if the ftse dropped a couple of hundred points from it's "typical" level he'd go long in big size. If it dropped even further he'd increase the size of his position. Then when it came back (and for 3 months, it always came back) he'd close out with a big profit.

Clearly a dangerous game to be playing - if the FTSE breaks out you're absolutely screwed. But his tactics raised a question: was he playing a dangerous game and getting lucky, or did he have a genuine insight that meant he was correctly predicting a range-bound market? Impossible to know, ahead of time, and impossible to test using any statistical algorithm. But he did seem to have the most phenomenal knack of picking localised peaks/troughs.

The story ends in a fairly predictable manner. We were on the brink of following him when the ftse did break out and he dropped the entire £1.5m.

So we don't follow anyone. It gives us a headache even thinking about it. There are a number of huge winners in our client base but, provided we can demonstrate that they're genuinely making the money out of the market (rather than by arbitrage, or by abusing some other fault in our pricing) we kind of accept it as part of the game and try not to think about it too hard. It's always possible they're going to lose it all back, and we don't want to be mirroring them when it happens.

"That has been a much needed contribution to the T2W BB's. I say, thank you for your efforts and patience."

Think nothing of it. I'm posting because I wanted to clear up a couple of issues that people were repeatedly bringing up. I don't want to plug my own company or spread-betting in general - everyone here's a grown-up and can make their own decisions etc etc.

Having said that, (i.) I think most of the major issues have now been covered, and (ii.) I've really got to get back to the day-job. So forgive me if my posts are a little less extensive/frequent from now on.

I wish you all luck in your trading.

But not too much luck, obviously...

Cheers

pb
 
dsmodi

" the daily price cash closes at market close, any open positions are closed against the closing price, WITHOUT any spread whatsoever."

" So although nearer closing time, it would seem logical that the SB company moves the cash spread closer to the actual index, astute traders can take advantage of this scenario on occasions and particularly so if they are aware of it."

hi, i dont spread bet but are you saying that at 21:00 GMT, the spreadbetting companies close any of their open Dow cash positions at the real DOW cash index price as opposed to the Futures index price, OR they close it at the mid of the real DOW futures price, the latter would make sense - and i guess gives a slight benefit - but to gain you would have to hold to the close and the market could move with or against you - so i guess it would be worth bearing in mind as a bonus - but would be dangerous to try to make money off it

when you say "cash spread closer to the actual index", i assume you mean closer to the real futures index, since there is no spread on the real cash index

there are issues with pricing off Dow futures as the emini is illiquid and the reporting of the big contract during market hours is always gonna be delayed at best or inaccurate at worst - so i suspect that spreadbetting companies must certainlly use the S&P as an input to price the Dow - and in certain conditions that can defiently lead to aberations in the spreadbettors mispricing the Dow as they move from the last Dow futures price to the last S&P price - but with their wide spreads and the fact that you cannot use electronic automated trading - i suspect it would be difficult to benefit

however, if i was a spreadbetting company - i would forget about Dow pricing and just price my Dow prices off the S&P - save a lot of risk that way
 
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probookie

the point u raised with your 1.5M trader is a key one - to really be sure you at least have a clue about trading - you need to be profitable 4 out of 5 days for at least 3 years, and on the losing days - you should really just end up with a row of scratches from a low volatility day

the reason for 3 years is not so much just the length of time for times sake - but u need to trade through a whole bunch of market cycles in order to be sure you are doing it right and are not going to give back your earlier winnings and more when the market action changes

i keep hearing from all my non-professional trading friends who jump into the markets occasionaly, how much money they have made in the markets in the last few months - but what most dont get is that the market has traded in a reasonably narrow range and is presently to the upside - so as most non-proffesionals only trade long and find it real hard to sell even when the market is trending against them - by logic if they have been in the market the last few months - they would have held at any breaks to the downside, and so they would be up now - but once volatilty increases and the market really breaks to the downside, as it surely will - i guess our trading conversations will start to diminish!
 
Probookie:
We had one client who built up a trading profit of £1.5m over a period of 3 months. We could see exactly what his strategy was: he was counter-trending. So if the ftse dropped a couple of hundred points from it's "typical" level he'd go long in big size. If it dropped even further he'd increase the size of his position. Then when it came back (and for 3 months, it always came back) he'd close out with a big profit.


We had someone on here a while ago who was using the exact same system, apologies because I can't remember who it was. I know there was a huge debate and basically he was told it would all end in tears.

As they say, "Losers average losers".
 
stevet et al

as an example, yesterday at about 7.30pm BST after the fed rate decision, if the spread on the Wall Street Daily was 9486-9492 (which is relative to the Futures prices)and someone went long at 9492 and left that position open till expiry, then they would have been closed out at 9567.34. Their profit would have been 75.34 points. No spread on the closing postion, if left till expiry at 9pm.

This is with cantor index who also have a "Daily Wall Street Future" which expires when the daily future does - which i think is at 9.15 pm ....

HTH - but if it's not clear, please don't hesitate to ask....
 
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