S&P500 - Weekly Forecasting Competition for 2023

[IlIlIlIlI]

4261.2

 

[BigDeal]

4162

 

[Sharky]

Working on the results so far, will be published before end of day, then once a week. Thanks for your patience!

 

[Sharky]

@Atilla @Oscar Reed @counter_violent unless anyone objects, I'll accept a late entry today if you still want to place your bets?

 

[BigDeal]

@Atilla @Oscar Reed @counter_violent unless anyone objects, I'll accept a late entry today if you still want to place your bets?

No objection from me, as long as they all get it completely and hopelessly wrong.........

 

[Sharky]

Just to confirm on the scoring, my understanding is:

STEP 1
- If you pick the right directon then you get 1 point
- If you pick the wrong direction you get -1 points
- If you pick the same close as previous week (the world explodes?!)

STEP 2
- If you picked the right direction then the entry closest gets gold (3 points), next closest gets silver (2 points) and third closest gets bronze (1 point)
- note if you picked the wrong direction you can't get a medal and the extra points, even if you're prediction is closer than any of the medalists

 

[IlIlIlIlI]

Just to confirm on the scoring, my understanding is:

STEP 1
- If you pick the right directon then you get 1 point
- If you pick the wrong direction you get -1 points
- If you pick the same close as previous week (the world explodes?!)

STEP 2
- If you picked the right direction then the entry closest gets gold (3 points), next closest gets silver (2 points) and third closest gets bronze (1 point)
- note if you picked the wrong direction you can't get a medal and the extra points, even if you're prediction is closer than any of the medalists

Step 1:
If the market has the same close as last week including all digits after the decimal point, then I would say 1 point for everybody so there is no need to change the rules for step 2.
What is picked is compared only with the weekly market close, not any pick before.

Step 2:
Correct. Only the distance counts for rank 1-3.
And no points if the direction of Step 1 was wrong.

 

[Atilla]

Yep I agree with all that and so would papa Pat, to remember his spirit.

 

[counter_violent]

@Atilla @Oscar Reed @counter_violent unless anyone objects, I'll accept a late entry today if you still want to place your bets?

Damm, completely forgot to enter last night.

4202.4 ta

 

[Sharky]

Working on the results so far, will be published before end of day, then once a week. Thanks for your patience!

Thanks for the confirmation. I've got all the entries, weekly closes plugged in - I've just got to finish calculating the averages before I can determine who wins the medals and get those points. I'll publish it all tomorrow, no ifs or buts!

 

[Sharky]

Here is the leaderboard so far for Q2, 2023:

1. BigDeal (13 pts)
2. counter_violet (12 pts)
3. lexcorp (5 pts)
4. {simple average} (4 points)
5. IlIlIlIlI (2 points)
6. Atila (-1 point)
7. Oscar Reed (-3 points)

Please note I've removed the weighted average, whilst I like the idea, I found it too time consuming to calculate for multiple weeks, so in the spirit of KISS I'll stick with just the simple average for now, at least whilst we continue to use a manual excel spreadsheet to manage it all.

 

[IlIlIlIlI]

Here is the leaderboard so far for Q2, 2023:

1. BigDeal (13 pts)
2. counter_violet (12 pts)
3. lexcorp (5 pts)
4. {simple average} (4 points)
5. IlIlIlIlI (2 points)
6. Atila (-1 point)
7. Oscar Reed (-3 points)

Please note I've removed the weighted average, whilst I like the idea, I found it too time consuming to calculate for multiple weeks, so in the spirit of KISS I'll stick with just the simple average for now, at least whilst we continue to use a manual excel spreadsheet to manage it all.

I just wonder why there is no forecast difference and direction shown for me and lexcorp.
Ist that really correct?

 

[Sharky]

Yes, those numbers don't change any of the points or medals calculations, they're a hangover from Atila's original spreadsheet, as I've simplified things a bit, but here's the corrected version...

 

[Sharky]

Let me know if the removal of the weighted average is a deal breaker. The problem I found is the weightings are cumulative over time, so every week they need to be recalculated and then applied, I'm not an excel pro so the formulas were starting to get a bit convoluted esp as you need to process everything weekly, I just didn't think it was worth the effort when a simple average gives a good ballpark.

 

[Oscar Reed]

Think there should be a prize for last there is a skill in getting that place.

 

[Atilla]

Think there should be a prize for last there is a skill in getting that place.

Steady Teady...

Coming last is more of a condition imo. There should be some ointment or tablets one can take for it surely...

 

[Oscar Reed]

4231 please

 

[counter_violent]

4242.4 ta

 

[IlIlIlIlI]

4262.1

 

[Atilla]

4100 please...