S&P500 - Weekly Forecasting Competition for 2022

[Velo]

Tsk1 US markets are closed today Monday - Labour Day.

 

[1nvest]

Thanks for taking it on.

Tell us more about your alien methods.

maybe im doing you all a disservice CV but im into tactical asset allocation. a fancy term for long term investing in the asset classes themselves, rather than entry and exit criteria which i've found is not the "alpha" in any strategy.
its not how you define a trend, or the indicators that you use, but where and when and how much to rotate into the asset class.
i've alluded to it in other posts, but its generally lost on most people when they then ask, are there any tips for swing trading. i know they simply dont get it. perhaps its just a journey they need to go on
or i need another forum!!

 

[counter_violent]

maybe im doing you all a disservice CV but im into tactical asset allocation. a fancy term for long term investing in the asset classes themselves, rather than entry and exit criteria which i've found is not the "alpha" in any strategy.
its not how you define a trend, or the indicators that you use, but where and when and how much to rotate into the asset class.
i've alluded to it in other posts, but its generally lost on most people when they then ask, are there any tips for swing trading. i know they simply dont get it. perhaps its just a journey they need to go on
or i need another forum!!

I agree.

Most, who call themselves traders, are simply satisfying their gambling addiction.

If they need to keep turning a profit each month to stay in the game, then sure as hell they can be added to the churn and burn camp.

 

[Atilla]

maybe im doing you all a disservice CV but im into tactical asset allocation. a fancy term for long term investing in the asset classes themselves, rather than entry and exit criteria which i've found is not the "alpha" in any strategy.
its not how you define a trend, or the indicators that you use, but where and when and how much to rotate into the asset class.
i've alluded to it in other posts, but its generally lost on most people when they then ask, are there any tips for swing trading. i know they simply dont get it. perhaps its just a journey they need to go on
or i need another forum!!

Are you referring to more macro fundamentals likes stocks and shares, bonds and commodities cycle, coupled with direction of interest rates?

There is then the different sectors of the economy and how well they perform against the economic cycle...

That sounds like fundamental value investing to me. Good work.

 

[1nvest]

Are you referring to more macro fundamentals likes stocks and shares, bonds and commodities cycle, coupled with direction of interest rates?

There is then the different sectors of the economy and how well they perform against the economic cycle...

That sounds like fundamental value investing to me. Good work.

Hi Atilla, its all technically driven. you will naturally see the effect of the economic cycle playing out within the price data as money flows from equities to commodities and inflation linked bonds. relative momentum within the asset classes will shift. there is a timing element, but as i alluded to, thats not where the results are generated.
results are generated from the relative strength of the asset classes, along with the relative strength within the asset class themselves
for example, if you simply take two correlated assets within the same class. take SPY and EFA. you will beat SPY simply by switching within the asset class as relative strength increases between them. far outweighs any timing aspect of trading/investing SPY. this is just within equities.
apply the same thinking now to commodities.
two correlated assets within the same class. Take gold along with say, DBC. Relative momentum will shift, and you take advantage of one over the other.
im sure you get the picture

 

[Atilla]

Well done to I-Cat's Paw-I who takes his 7th gold medal of the year this week, taking his position into 2nd place on the Quarter-3 leader board. 👏👏

Atilla takes the silver spot and Velo wins the bronze.

The bulls have it this week. After three weeks of falls SPX bounces back. Thus far we have had 4 down and 5 up weeks. I love numbers coz they really tell you a good story. We started the quarter at 3825. We are currently at 4067. Roll on inflation and rate rises.

Quarter 3 - Table

Quarter 3 - Leader Board

2022 - Year Running Total

Wishing you all a fab weekend.

 

[Atilla]

4161.4

 

[counter_violent]

4111.4 ta

 

[Velo]

4152 thanks.

 

[IlIlIlIlI]

4179 - if it is not too late

 

[Atilla]

Hi Everyone,

Here are the forecasts for week 37. Just three weeks left for the end of Quarter-3.

Surprisingly there are no bears this week. What can possibly go wrong LOL. Markets obviously peaked. I'm selling the lot and betting my pensions on it next week.

Wishing you all a prosperous trading week and happy days.

 

[Atilla]

OMG -

What they say is really true. When there are no more bears left and everyone is a bull, the markets tank. I'll have to tuck this one under my cap for future reference.

Sadly, we all lose a point this week and no medals awarded to anyone.

No medals for...

​

Have a good weekend guys...

 

[IlIlIlIlI]

3994.2

 

[Oscar Reed]

3848 please
God save the Queen
God help the King

 

[Atilla]

3800

 

[Velo]

3691
-------

(I said in company: They could have chosen better hymns.
When asked which, I replied:
Well, Good King Wenceslas for starters.

But, realising my error, they wouldn't let me retract it.)

 

[Atilla]

Here we go with the penultimate week 38, Quarter-3 forecasts. We have 6 bears and 1 bull. Forecast variance is 303 ticks. Strange it's gone up from last weeks 67 almost 5 fold. Cat's Paw is the die hard bull in the pack. Only one of his calls were bearish this quarter.

Velo is the most bearish. Markets have been spooked and Fed is being mighty hawkish. Tomorrow evening we'll all see just how much. Expectation is for a 0.75 rise. Get your snorkles and flippers out. We going deep sea diving...

Wishing you all a good prosperous trading.

 

[Atilla]

Well done to Velo who was very close to bulls eye this week just 2.23 points away from producing "THE" forecast of the century. 👏👏👏

I'm delighted to see BB_Tfs metric take 2nd place and I get that extra crucial point for bronze. Yay.

With just one week's forecast left, only Velo can now catch CV for the quarter win position. Assuming he does, then it'll be down to who has most gold medals for the quarter. So if Velo does get gold he will beat CV. Question is whether CV is now playing the tactical game not to lose points and thus sitting it out??? Oooh all very interesting. Will CV forecats next week or sit it out...

Gentlemen, sharpen your pencils to forecast your votes.

Podium Winners

Have a fab weekend y'all now...

 

[Atilla]

3737.3 for me in this last week of Quarter-3.

Wishing you good forecasts and fortunes

 

[Oscar Reed]

3721 please