S&P500 - Weekly Forecasting Competition for 2022

[Atilla]

Hellooooo to all you fab forecasters.

Week 13 kicks off the 2nd Quarter SPX-500 Close of Week Cash Call Competition. Yay.

We have 8 bulls and 2 bears. I-Cat's Paw-I is the most bullish and AC007, our new forecaster the most bearish. The average estimated variance thus far is 220. This week's variance is almost 400 double that. Thus, we have a big difference of World views.

CV still has an OCD condition with his 4fours4 I see. It sounds like hocus pocus stuff but remarkably he is leading the running total as per scores below having won Quarter 1.

Wishing you all good fortunes and sunny days.

League Table Running Total

 

[AC007]

my ! st tgt 4030 2nd tgt 3680 time I don't know but that's where my tgts are

 

[Atilla]

short tgt 4316

This was your target

It is a weekly call not daily.

You must submit your forecast for weekly close on Friday, before the markets open on Monday morning.

Only one target is allowed.

 

[Atilla]

Well done to all forecasters who made the Mean Average forecast take the gold medal. That's grreeeaaatttt calls from all of us.

The Weighted Average also a close runner-up takes the silver spot. Yours trully gets that valuable 2nd point with the bronze. Good start for Quarter 2, SPX500 just managing to close up 2.8 ticks.

Mean Average metric takes the lead in Quarter 2.

Running Total Leader Board

Look forward to all your forecasts for week 14. Have a great weekend and stay chilled.

 

[Oscar Reed]

4601 please

 

[1nvest]

4584 for me

 

[IlIlIlIlI]

⬆️ 4695.3

 

[counter_violent]

4444.4 ta

 

[Atilla]

4502 for me...

 

[Velo]

And 4564 for me.

 

[Atilla]

And 4564 for me.

Welcome to the competition Velo and good luck with that forecast.

 

[Velo]

Welcome to the competition and Velo and good luck with that forecast.

Thanks Atilla.

And thank you for the commitment you're putting in, to maintaining the admin leader-board updates.

 

[Atilla]

Hi Everyone,

Apologies for a belated update of the forecasts for week 14. We have 7 bulls and 2 bears. I-Cat's Paw-I is the most bullish versus CV who is bearish. 250 point variance. Down from last week's 400. Personally, I think it's amazing people can still be bullish in these times with markets at incredible highs. So many risks with energy prices on an exponential path. Reminds me of the 70s. LOL.

We have four missing players and one new entrant. High turnover of peeps giving up the ghost. Consistency is the mark of a good trader. Make it routine and make it a habit. Good practice, it becomes.

Wishing you all prosperous trading and happy warm sunny days.

 

[Velo]

I think it's amazing people can still be bullish in these times

Hee hee
Ahem. . . Let's see if I can get a simple expression of amazement upgraded to one of highly raised eyebrows in utter amazement

For the current month, my viewpoint is that April will close much higher than it started the month.
In fact I won't be surprised even if it went as far up into the 4,700's

If so, then I'd also expect thereafter a big bear pullback as you allude to, but I'm also in the camp of seeing the possibility of (shock horror) well over 5,000++ showing it's face later on this year.

Whatever the eventual outcomes I'm not married to those views but will let the predominant trends dictate my outlook.

 

[Atilla]

Hee hee
Ahem. . . Let's see if I can get a simple expression of amazement upgraded to one of highly raised eyebrows in utter amazement

For the current month, my viewpoint is that April will close much higher than it started the month.
In fact I won't be surprised even if it went as far up into the 4,700's

If so, then I'd also expect thereafter a big bear pullback as you allude to, but I'm also in the camp of seeing the possibility of (shock horror) well over 5,000++ showing it's face later on this year.

Whatever the eventual outcomes I'm not married to those views but will let the predominant trends dictate my outlook.

Thanks Velo, I'm almost 50/50 stock/cash at the mo. Looking to liquidate a little more. This summer I wan't to be out of the market. Review in late August whether to go back in subject to xdivi dates.

I reckon the upside is more limited than the downside. So on probabilities better out than in imho.

 

[Velo]

Might be handy for future reference this year -

Just tidying up my files and thought I'd sling you a copy of the next Fed meetings for the remainder of this year.

The last one (on the 16th March) they broadcast their decision to hike the interest rates at 2pm (we followed suit the next day) and the futures market dropped instantly and non-stop fell 60 points - over the next 30 minutes until the S&P500 opened at 2:30pm.

Whereupon the market now thought it was a good decision and promptly spent the next 90 minutes to the close, reversing that pullback by raising the S&P500 up by some 100 points. Here's the rest of the year:

Rate Hikes
FED Meeting Dates 2022:

FOMC meeting March: 15-16
FOMC meeting May: 3-4
FOMC meeting June: 14-15
FOMC meeting July: 26-27
FOMC meeting September: 20-21
FOMC meeting November: 1-2
FOMC meeting December: 13-14


FOMC meeting dates for 2023 are expected to be published in June 2022.

 

[Velo]

CORRECTION!

The last one (on the 16th March) they broadcast their decision to hike the interest rates at 2pm (we followed suit the next day) and the futures market dropped instantly and non-stop fell 60 points - over the next 30 minutes until the S&P500 opened at 2:30pm.

Got confused with US time and our time. Omit all references to UK time. It was all in US afternoon time. That para should have read:

The last one (on the 16th March) they broadcast their decision to hike the interest rates at 2pm USA time (we followed suit the next day) and the futures market dropped instantly, and non-stop fell 60 points - over the next 30 minutes until the S&P500 opened at 2:30pm their time.

 

[Velo]

UK TIME​	US TIME​
2:30 pm​	9:30 am Open
3:00 pm​	10:00 am​
3:30 pm​	10:30 am​
4:00 pm​	11:00 am​
4:15 pm​	11:15 am​
4:30 pm​	11:30 am​
5:00 pm​	12:00 pm​
6:00 pm​	1:00 pm​
6:30 pm​	1:30 pm​
7:30 pm​	2:30 pm​
8:00 pm​	3:00 pm​
8:30 pm​	3:30 pm​
9:00 pm​	4:00 pm Close

Talking of US times brings this to mind:

Saw a video of a pro-female trader who in a seated interview claimed most of her multi-million success came in the first hour of the trading day, and always ceased trading at that point leaving the remainder of the day to herself.

So, I thought: Ooh I'll look into that. ££££££££££

I did.
- And found it total ballclocks 🥱

Years later became impressed by a successful Youtuber guru, mainly because the ma trends he promoted mirrored my own. He too opined on the best times in the day for day trading, scalping, et al.

There was a myriad of videos each espousing that particular time frame for a particular type of trader.
So many, that I couldn't cast them all to memory.
So I thought: I know! I don't care about types of traders, I'll just lob the lot together in one list.

The result you see, was the list above.

And LOL he as good as recommended every friggin' half hour ! 🥴

Time passed and here's the weird bit.

- I've since found a lot of it works for me. Particularly the last half hour of the day as bond markets close and there's a helter-skelter rush to convert into equities. And those first half-hour/90minute mornings too. 🤓

 

[Velo]

Little over half an hour to go and . . .

It's the Final Countdown!

A one, a two, a one two three -

Thursday closed with an interesting Engulfing candlestick pattern suggesting a bullish performance is next up.

Overnight futures were sub 4500, but from early this morning to currently, the index is up and over 4500 dancing around just above 4500.

Probabilities of the bulls winning the week are possible but stretched a little, so bulls should instead focus on beating last week's close of 4545.86 even by just 0.1 to avoid a minus -1 point strike against them.

So a close tonight of 4546 would ensure it was the bears that suffer the minus -1 point penalty.

That's the target for all bulls - 4546. (A minus -1 point avoidance strategy

 

[Atilla]

Little over half an hour to go and . . .

It's the Final Countdown!

A one, a two, a one two three -

Thursday closed with an interesting Engulfing candlestick pattern suggesting a bullish performance is next up.

Overnight futures were sub 4500, but from early this morning to currently, the index is up and over 4500 dancing around just above 4500.

Probabilities of the bulls winning the week are possible but stretched a little, so bulls should instead focus on beating last week's close of 4545.86 even by just 0.1 to avoid a minus -1 point strike against them.

So a close tonight of 4546 would ensure it was the bears that suffer the minus -1 point penalty.

That's the target for all bulls - 4546. (A minus -1 point avoidance strategy

I reckon it's more like a case of

It'll hold this level around 4500 or get down further.