S&P500 - Weekly Forecasting Competition for 2022

[AC007]

Hi AC007, welcome to the SPX500 cash call forecasting competition and it would be great to have you in our competiton.

Would you be able to apply your system to the SPX500 and see how it performs on weekly calls?

The 2nd quarter will start in April 1st and you would have equal chance of winning the quarterly $50 Amazon voucher if you come first, top of the league table.

You have to enter your forecast for Friday's close before US markets open on Monday. That's usualy 14:30 GMT time.

Look forward to your forecast.

thanks.
I use ig index charting. So it's cash, not the future.

 

[Atilla]

thanks.
I use ig index charting. So it's cash, not the future.

The competition is for SPX500 Cash calls for end of week cob. So hopefully we can see you participating in next quarter's competition.

 

[AC007]

short tgt 4316

 

[Atilla]

short tgt 4316

I'll enter as your target for week closing 1st of April then.

Good luck and all the best.

 

[Atilla]

Results for week 12, ending first quarters competition is below.

Average takes the gold spot followed by Weighted Average taking the silver spot. The only humanoid, 1nvest takes the bronze. Well done to us all collectively winning that gold medal and 1nvest for coming in 3rd place.

The league table for end of Quarter 1 looks like we have a runaway winner.

CV wins with a clear 9 point lead earning 17 points.
Yours truly Atilla is runner up with joint 8 points but with gold medal difference takes 2nd spot.
The mean Average metric also gets 8 points but with one less gold medal takes 3rd place.

Thank you for all participating and looking forward to 2nd Quarter.

Hopefully, our new forecasters fully understand the point scoring system. If anything is not clear, please do call it out and I'll try and explain.

Wishing you all a fab weekend of sunhsine and the good stuff.

 

[Atilla]

The winner of Quarter 1 - SPX 500 Cash Call Competition is...


COUNTER_VIOLENT

👏 👏 👏 Well done CV 👏👏👏


$50 in Amazon Vouchers will be awarded to you at the end of the year.


​

 

[Atilla]

Always worth looking back on the quarter with our forecasting data.

The average estimated variance in forecasts was ..... 220
The average "actual trading range" (ATR) for the 12 week's was ..... 194
There were 63 bullish calls against 59 bears.
The average score for all forecasters was ....................5.2 points
If you got above 5.2 points you did well.
If you got below 5.2 points you can do better.
Atilla got the highest gold medal count with ............... 3 gold medals.
Overall the three metrics, AVG, WAVG and BB got most gold medals 12 in total. This stands to reason I guess. Collectively we are better hitting the mark. The bell curve works.
The three metrics all received above average points.
Not much difference between the Trend Following System and Weighted Average.
I'm struggling to explain how CV got over twice the scores rest of the field did??? Help me out here guys?
We had two weeks where the SPX500 closed down and back up with over 250 points. 21st Jan & 18th March.
Average weekly difference in closing price from week before was 98.
We had 7 down weeks.
We had 4 up weeks.
Over the quarter the SPX moved from 4677 -> 4563 = down by 134 points

If you do notice any patterns or points of interest please do shout it out.

 

[counter_violent]

Always worth looking back on the quarter with our forecasting data.

View attachment 315513

The average estimated variance in forecasts was ..... 220
The average "actual trading range" (ATR) for the 12 week's was ..... 194
There were 63 bullish calls against 59 bears.
The average score for all forecasters was ....................5.2 points
If you got above 5.2 points you did well.
If you got below 5.2 points you can do better.
Atilla got the highest gold medal count with ............... 3 gold medals.
Overall the three metrics, AVG, WAVG and BB got most gold medals 12 in total. This stands to reason I guess. Collectively we are better hitting the mark. The bell curve works.
The three metrics all received above average points.
Not much difference between the Trend Following System and Weighted Average.
I'm struggling to explain how CV got over twice the scores rest of the field did??? Help me out here guys?
We had two weeks where the SPX500 closed down and back up with over 250 points. 21st Jan & 18th March.
Average weekly difference in closing price from week before was 98.
We had 7 down weeks.
We had 4 up weeks.
Over the quarter the SPX moved from 4677 -> 4563 = down by 134 points

If you do notice any patterns or points of interest please do shout it out.

I looked at medal placement. cv 6 invest 4 all others 3 or less. so over the 12 forecast entries, 6 of them earned at least double the points. dunno if there's something in that.

 

[QuXiQu]

 

[Atilla]

I looked at medal placement. cv 6 invest 4 all others 3 or less. so over the 12 forecast entries, 6 of them earned at least double the points. dunno if there's something in that.

I don't know about the others but 1nvest had 5 points for start of week from last week. Somehow that figure turned to 0 this week.

I have updated the results and 1nvest should have 5 from start of week +2 for last week. So he finishes on 7 points.

Here is last spread sheet view from post #130

Here is the updated leader board at end of Quarter 1.

Sorry about that mix up. My bad.

Let me know if you think any of your scores are wrong and I can quickly check.

 

[1nvest]

I don't know about the others but 1nvest had 5 points for start of week from last week. Somehow that figure turned to 0 this week.

I have updated the results and 1nvest should have 5 from start of week +2 for last week. So he finishes on 7 points.

Here is last spread sheet view from post #130

Here is the updated leader board at end of Quarter 1.

View attachment 315517


Sorry about that mix up. My bad.

Let me know if you think any of your scores are wrong and I can quickly check.

Cheers buddy

 

[Oscar Reed]

4598 please

 

[IlIlIlIlI]

⬆️ 4713.0

 

[1nvest]

4582

 

[CavaliereVerde]

4600

 

[counter_violent]

4444.4 ta

 

[Atilla]

View attachment 315514

Hi QuXiQu,

Thank you for your post and your chart about the next SPX500 Move. However, to enter the competition you need to post one number for the index, where you think it will be for Friday 1st of April close at the end of the day.

Your forecast must be in before US market opens on Monday morning. This is usually 14:30 GMT time.

Look forward to receiving your forecast.

 

[Atilla]

short tgt 4316

Hi AC007,

Can you confirm if you would like this SPX500 Cash Call for 4316 cob 1st of April, forecast competition please?

Alternatively, feel free to change your mind and let us know before 14:30 GMT time.

 

[Atilla]

4573 for me

 

[AC007]

Hi AC007,

Can you confirm if you would like this SPX500 Cash Call for 4316 cob 1st of April, forecast competition please?

Alternatively, feel free to change your mind and let us know before 14:30 GMT time.

yes