Hi guys,
Here are the forecasts for this week.
Surprising to see CV sticking to his bearish calls. Bulls v Bears 6 to 1 same as last week.
Quick write up re: Fed meeting yesterday evening. I thought it was awful and bore no relation to fact or past experience.
Essentially, it was about tapering and no need for rate rises because inflation is considered to be temporary. Test or condition for raising rates was around inflation and the job market. Whilst the labour market / full employment is not achieved, no real reason to raise rates now. This may sound plausible and reasonable to the layman but in economic terms, it's a pile of pooh imo.
Inflation is already in the system with supply chain and energy shocks. Wages have been going up along with employment. Hence to expect higher levels of employment with lower inflation is just nonsense. Total nonsense even if the supply chain issues are resolved. As for energy prices well they'll have to remain high due to demand and secondly to allow peeps to switch to lower-cost green energy (which at the moment is not lower at all).
Anyhow, made no sense to me. Government finances are in a total mess. Good for markets though. Free money at super low if not negative interest rates. Upwards and onwards we go.