S&P 500 weekly competition for 2012

[dpinpon]

Again, sorry, I should say in my way to my office.

 

[robster970]

W/E 11th May - Predictions

So, welcome to themilton - a canny prediction if I might say so.

Sorry for being late, have been away the bank holiday weekend.

Up: 4
Down: 12

Average: 1360.5
Wt Average: 1360.1

Highest: 1388
Lowest: 1340

Good luck boys and girls :clover:

Link to this weeks predictions

 

[Pat494]

Again, sorry, I should say in my way to my office.

Gotta keep off that cactus juice dp

 

[dpinpon]

Gotta keep off that cactus juice dp

Sure I can do that as being the boss myself but that was not the case

 

[themilton]

Re: W/E 11th May - Predictions

So, welcome to themilton - a canny prediction if I might say so.

Sorry for being late, have been away the bank holiday weekend.

Up: 4
Down: 12

Average: 1360.5
Wt Average: 1360.1

Highest: 1388
Lowest: 1340

Good luck boys and girls :clover:

Link to this weeks predictions

Thanks Robster970. Being that I'm such a noobster, I usually try to err on the side of caution. It looks like I'm going to be dead wrong already. Good thing I don't trade the ES. It's still pretty early in the game for me and I find it difficult to guage the volitility of $SPX. What did you mean by WT Average?

 

[DonStar]

Re: W/E 11th May - Predictions

Thanks Robster970. Being that I'm such a noobster, I usually try to err on the side of caution. It looks like I'm going to be dead wrong already. Good thing I don't trade the ES. It's still pretty early in the game for me and I find it difficult to guage the volitility of $SPX. What did you mean by WT Average?

Being dead wrong will help you fit right in and might even make you a few friends!

Welcome themilton :clap:

 

[Pat494]

Re: W/E 11th May - Predictions

Thanks Robster970. Being that I'm such a noobster, I usually try to err on the side of caution. It looks like I'm going to be dead wrong already. Good thing I don't trade the ES. It's still pretty early in the game for me and I find it difficult to guage the volitility of $SPX. What did you mean by WT Average?

wt is for weighted average
the previous points count * forecast

 

[robster970]

Preliminary results calculated, summary to follow tomorrow. Well done themilton for getting a podium in your first week

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AnFF2Rblu36wdGRNQjNXTzVjdldJb2dXdjRVTGs5VVE&pli=1#gid=0

 

[themilton]

Preliminary results calculated, summary to follow tomorrow. Well done themilton for getting a podium in your first week

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AnFF2Rblu36wdGRNQjNXTzVjdldJb2dXdjRVTGs5VVE&pli=1#gid=0

Thank You! I still can't believe how close I was.

 

[Atilla]

Thank You! I still can't believe how close I was.

I can't believe how far I was out

I have contempt for the markets it's all fixed.

 

[robster970]

W/E 11th May - Results

What a week eh lads. Someone is quite seriously propping up S&P just underneath the 1350 level and no amount of trying seems to be stopping these people from hoovering up all available contracts. So in what has been a somewhat choppy week, the index finished down at 1353.39.

Now then, after our brief departure to inaccurate forecasting, I can announce a triumphant return to high precision prediction with our Charlie's Angels being:

1) wackypete2 - 1354 (0.61)
2) hwsteele - 1353 (1.61)
3) themilton - 1350 (-3.39)

Excellent work boys, especially themilton for getting his first podium on his first prediction. :clover::clover:

Commiserations to Pat who was literally pipped from first place to off the list in the last 30mins of the session - unlucky my friend

So this brings me onto the leaderboard. Atilla still leads but pete and hwsteele are showing a degree of consistency now that is seriously threatening to take Atilla out of the hot-spot. A 3 horse race or do the rest of us have a chance to catch up?

Anyway, I think next week will be interesting but I'll keep that one to myself

Link to results

 

[themilton]

Re: W/E 11th May - Results

What a week eh lads. Someone is quite seriously propping up S&P just underneath the 1350 level and no amount of trying seems to be stopping these people from hoovering up all available contracts. So in what has been a somewhat choppy week, the index finished down at 1353.39.

Now then, after our brief departure to inaccurate forecasting, I can announce a triumphant return to high precision prediction with our Charlie's Angels being:

1) wackypete2 - 1354 (0.61)
2) hwsteele - 1353 (1.61)
3) themilton - 1350 (-3.39)

Excellent work boys, especially themilton for getting his first podium on his first prediction. :clover::clover:

Commiserations to Pat who was literally pipped from first place to off the list in the last 30mins of the session - unlucky my friend

So this brings me onto the leaderboard. Atilla still leads but pete and hwsteele are showing a degree of consistency now that is seriously threatening to take Atilla out of the hot-spot. A 3 horse race or do the rest of us have a chance to catch up?

Anyway, I think next week will be interesting but I'll keep that one to myself

Link to results

Thanks again! But more importantly thanks to lady luck for the kindness. I really appreciate it. I'm doing some analysis now for next week. I found something interesting on the fibs. Which I'm sure some of you have already seen already. To be quite honest, I'm not even sure if I'm doing it right. It may just be wishful thinking on my part. It looks like there was a 23.6 retracement from last weeks high. Here's a pic.

For the coming week. I'm going with 1303. In which case I will probably be way off. Congrats to Peter for coming in first!

 

[themilton]

Also note how close the three moving averages are(20,50,200) to the other retracement lines. I'm guessing if the market is moving down it may find some support around the 50day. It may be a little off since I'm using EMA and not SMA. Your thoughts? Hopefully I'm doing this right.

 

[Pat494]

Re: W/E 11th May - Results

Commiserations to Pat who was literally pipped from first place to off the list in the last 30mins of the session - unlucky my friend


Link to results

Good work Rob.
It's not just because of the above but I'm usually sort of on the lookout to improve all things I come across.
It would be fairer all round if everyone got points. So numero uno gets 1 point etc. etc or the reverse the man farthest away gets one point, second farthest 2 etc. etc.
Whichever you fancy. The second alternative takes into account how many are taking part. Showing it's better to win a 10 participant race than a 2 runners race.

So this brings me onto the leaderboard. Atilla still leads but pete and hwsteele are showing a degree of consistency now that is seriously threatening to take Atilla out of the hot-spot. A 3 horse race or do the rest of us have a chance to catch up?

The name of this game is consistancy. We would all be still in the race if the leaders bombed out badly !????

But maybe you couldn't stand the extra strain ? We would understand.

 

[Pat494]

Also note how close the three moving averages are(20,50,200) to the other retracement lines. I'm guessing if the market is moving down it may find some support around the 50day. It may be a little off since I'm using EMA and not SMA. Your thoughts? Hopefully I'm doing this right.

Whatever it is you are doing - keep going as long as it works !! imho

 

[isatrader]

Re: W/E 11th May - Results

Good work Rob.
It's not just because of the above but I'm usually sort of on the lookout to improve all things I come across.
It would be fairer all round if everyone got points. So numero uno gets 1 point etc. etc or the reverse the man farthest away gets one point, second farthest 2 etc. etc.
Whichever you fancy. The second alternative takes into account how many are taking part. Showing it's better to win a 10 participant race than a 2 runners race.

Maybe you couldn't stand the extra strain ? We would understand.

I don't think you should make any changes mid quarter in the competition. It would have to be at the start of the third quarter if at all as it works fine imo.

However, one suggestion I'd like to make for the future which could be added in to competition is to do a distance based scoring system. So the idea would be that the winner of the quarter would have the lowest cumulative amount of points at the end of the quarter. So for example this week wackypete2 would have got 0.61 and hwsteele 1.61, whereas I would have got 20.61. And to account for people missing weeks they would get the same as whoever got the worst score of the week for that week they missed. So each weeks distances would be added up and you could then see who was the most accurate player over time.

 

[Pat494]

1349 for me please

:clover:

 

[isatrader]

1374 again please Robster,

I think we'll get an up move this week as I believe the S&P 500 put in a short term bottom last week from the price action imo, and also some of the market breadth charts (the advance decline line and new high, new lows) are showing a positive divergence which I put in my other thread here: http://www.trade2win.com/boards/technical-analysis/147476-market-breadth-3.html#post1852688

One more area that's interesting is that the large players were buying last week, while the small players were selling especially in the Russell 2000 small caps (IWM) and the Nasdaq (QQQ). The S&P 500 (SPY) data was less clear, but I've attached the charts below.

 

[hwsteele]

Congrats to the other two with me in the top three.:clap:
I will call 1363 for next Friday.

Oh, and I like the idea floated by isatrader.

In the end though I will keep playing no matter how the score is kept as long as I am the winner!

 

[Pat494]

Re: W/E 11th May - Results

I don't think you should make any changes mid quarter in the competition. It would have to be at the start of the third quarter if at all as it works fine imo.

However, one suggestion I'd like to make for the future which could be added in to competition is to do a distance based scoring system. So the idea would be that the winner of the quarter would have the lowest cumulative amount of points at the end of the quarter. So for example this week wackypete2 would have got 0.61 and hwsteele 1.61, whereas I would have got 20.61. And to account for people missing weeks they would get the same as whoever got the worst score of the week for that week they missed. So each weeks distances would be added up and you could then see who was the most accurate player over time.

I like the above idea but I still think direction is important. After all it's no good from a trading point of view being near the end of the week's figures if one has the direction wrong.