S&P 500 & other indexes - intraday. Plus chat

[robster970]

Closed up around 52 and the VPOC was at 51.50 although for the amount of contracts traded, it made little headway after 48 by the looks of it.

Interesting week next week methinks...

 

[kimo'sabby]

Closed up around 52 and the VPOC was at 51.50 although for the amount of contracts traded, it made little headway after 48 by the looks of it.

Interesting week next week methinks...

Agree with you. I'm not 100% about this move. It doesn't look right on paper...

 

[robster970]

Agree with you. I'm not 100% about this move. It doesn't look right on paper...

Also 1.7m volume for a day like today - seems light....

I'm with the bears for next week....

 

[kimo'sabby]

Also 1.7m volume for a day like today - seems light....

I'm with the bears for next week....

I wouldn't like to say, but i'm certainly not confident about the upside.

 

[DionysusToast]

I'm sure everyone hates the terms "risk on" "risk off" as much as I do, however, the reality of todays markets is exactly this.

It's just a buzzword & like all new buzzwords, it represents nothing new. I try to not get involved with buzzwords. They are just there to make people sound clever.

Single instrument monkeys take note...your just gambling on an outcome, unless your taking into account the big picture.

My bad

Not at all - it just depends how you trade that single instrument.

For instance, you trade solely off price charts with no volume information, no clue about areas where the bulk of trading took place and no clue about the order flow.

It could be argued that you are missing out on all the detail. To me, this is gambling.

You make up for the lack of detail in your single-market analysis by looking at other markets.

On the other hand, some people don't need the "risk-on risk-off" analysis because they can clearly see from the information to hand whether people are coming into the market or backing away from our market. I can usually tell within the first minute of trading on the ES if it is going to be a slow day.

Inter-market analysis is fine but you have to limit the amount of information you use to make a trading decision. Adding in more things to the mix is a likely to reduce your profits as increase them.

 

[DionysusToast]

Tis very true, I like to think there are ways of tipping those odds in our favour. Thats what most traders struggle with I recon.

Yup - there are many ways of doing that.

Avoiding opaque markets and sticking to instruments traded on a single transparent exchange is a good start.

 

[DionysusToast]

btw - I use the term 'transparent' loosely...

 

[DionysusToast]

I heard something yesterday that resonated for me:

Retail traders (aka amateurs) are generally right but at the wrong time..........

Diffusion model: Information is the driving force of all markets; information has no power until someone acts on it. Understanding human nature is key to understanding the totality of the auction process. The following behavior is applicable to all independent timeframes: (Chapter Two and Chapter Seven of Markets in Profile and Chapter Six of The Tipping Point offer further elaboration on this topic.)

The innovators are the first to act and the hardest to detect; they are mostly individuals and hedge funds that are not driven by committee decisions. They are generally very low-keyed and shy away from publicity.

The early adopters are next and climb aboard a trend early in the process. (Remember: these concepts are applicable to all timeframes independently.) They are also less likely to be driven by communal decisions. They can become very aggressive.

The early majority are generally the more astute larger organizations and individuals. This group represents the heart of the bell shaped curve.

The late majority is led by the larger, slower moving institutions and individuals; those who require substantial information prior to making a commitment or decision. They tend to be more committee based if they are institutional.

The laggards are those that are extremely late to the auction; they enter just when the innovators are packing up to go home or have already faded the current auction.

- Jim Dalton

 

[robster970]

That's a really good description DT.

 

[barjon]

That's a really good description DT.

yes it is.

It'd be quite interesting to try and fit these groups into segments of the price action. On the face of it the innovators would be in play before the "new" trend started and would be the driving force for bringing the "old" one to an end.

It would also seem that a lot of the late majority and all the laggards (retail ) would be in as the new trend was, potentially at least, nearing its end. The clue to that would be spotting innovator activity I suppose.

 

[cmmichaels]

Diffusion model: Information is the driving force of all markets; information has no power until someone acts on it. Understanding human nature is key to understanding the totality of the auction process. The following behavior is applicable to all independent timeframes: (Chapter Two and Chapter Seven of Markets in Profile and Chapter Six of The Tipping Point offer further elaboration on this topic.)

The innovators are the first to act and the hardest to detect; they are mostly individuals and hedge funds that are not driven by committee decisions. They are generally very low-keyed and shy away from publicity.

The early adopters are next and climb aboard a trend early in the process. (Remember: these concepts are applicable to all timeframes independently.) They are also less likely to be driven by communal decisions. They can become very aggressive.

The early majority are generally the more astute larger organizations and individuals. This group represents the heart of the bell shaped curve.

The late majority is led by the larger, slower moving institutions and individuals; those who require substantial information prior to making a commitment or decision. They tend to be more committee based if they are institutional.

The laggards are those that are extremely late to the auction; they enter just when the innovators are packing up to go home or have already faded the current auction.

- Jim Dalton

Malcolm Gladwell is the man if you haven't read Outliers then definitely would recommend it for me it is one of the best books I've ever read.

Good call though DT, I haven't actually read the tipping point but that is next but markets in profile was one of the best trading books I've ever read for sure re-reading soon.

 

[Splitlink]

Dick swinging doesn't happen on this thread Dinos. We're all fairly mature about it all and don't loiter on here to prove sh1t to each other.

That's good because, at my age, I'm not thinking of competing with you lot in that department.

 

[Pat494]

That's good because, at my age, I'm not thinking of competing with you lot in that department.

I've heard of cricketers retiring and golfers hanging up their clubs for the last time but there is always just one more sha*g to go surely ?

 

[DionysusToast]

yes it is.

It'd be quite interesting to try and fit these groups into segments of the price action. On the face of it the innovators would be in play before the "new" trend started and would be the driving force for bringing the "old" one to an end.

It would also seem that a lot of the late majority and all the laggards (retail ) would be in as the new trend was, potentially at least, nearing its end. The clue to that would be spotting innovator activity I suppose.

Well - we've all been the laggard. Someone that feels more & more that he's missing out as price moves up and finally buys the high tick.

Obviously the higher and higher you go as price moves up, the less potential reward there is.

Price risk vs information risk as Mr FT71 eloquently puts it. Me, I don't mind a bit of confirmation to be honest.

 

[Pat494]

yes it is.

It'd be quite interesting to try and fit these groups into segments of the price action. On the face of it the innovators would be in play before the "new" trend started and would be the driving force for bringing the "old" one to an end.

It would also seem that a lot of the late majority and all the laggards (retail ) would be in as the new trend was, potentially at least, nearing its end. The clue to that would be spotting innovator activity I suppose.

Perhaps one of the maths lot could make a mov av or something that changes colour as it matures catching each phase in turn ??

 

[robster970]

yes it is.

It'd be quite interesting to try and fit these groups into segments of the price action. On the face of it the innovators would be in play before the "new" trend started and would be the driving force for bringing the "old" one to an end.

It would also seem that a lot of the late majority and all the laggards (retail ) would be in as the new trend was, potentially at least, nearing its end. The clue to that would be spotting innovator activity I suppose.

Isn't that we are all trying to do by spending hours looking at screens to give us clues?

 

[tomorton]

splashy - I think you've put up some good demonstrations of 123 trades - practical methods, clear and simple charts, your set-up uncluttered by indicators and exotic TA. I don't have time to screen-watch Mon-Fri but I may get the chance to try your approach on a day off now and then. Good work.

 

[robster970]

That's good because, at my age, I'm not thinking of competing with you lot in that department.

It's a good job this isn't a competitive thread then split

 

[splashy]

splashy - I think you've put up some good demonstrations of 123 trades - practical methods, clear and simple charts, your set-up uncluttered by indicators and exotic TA. I don't have time to screen-watch Mon-Fri but I may get the chance to try your approach on a day off now and then. Good work.

Thank Tomorton.
I don't know how many hundreds of hours i've spent working with various indicators only to come to the conclusion that i could do as well by looking at a chart and using my common sense. To anyone who uses indicators effectively, i salute you...lol.

1-2-3-4 is nothing obviously nothing new but i find it quite a powerful pattern since every move begins with higher highs/ higher lows etc which are the building blocks of this pattern. All i've tried to do is limit the downside.

Ideally, I like to limit lines on charts to no more than 4-5. Any more than that and i start going over them again and asking myself if i really need them. If i do, its gonna be a quiet day! Obviously there may be intraday t/l to pencil in too as they develop.

Anyway, good luck with it. If you can think of anything to bump up the averages a bit, i'm in!:cheesy:

I remember your Big Ben strategy that was as simple as it comes - set-and-forget with no bells, bows and whistles. Are you still using it?

 

[splashy]

I love simple methods like this. They always seem to hold up much better than overtly complex ones, probably because they reflect an underlying consistent behaviour in the market.

Couple of questions:

1) Do you notice that the best trades correlate to certain times of day (8:30 to 10:00, 14:30 to 15:30) for example?

2) I was surprised the draw-down wasn't as big - do you think this is down to trade selection and knowing that your 2xrisk has been pinged/traded through (and likely to be re-tested)?

Just thought of something that may interest you, robster...

My data shows that the most lucrative day by far is.....Monday! And easily the worse is Tuesday. 7 of the 12 best days so far have been on mondays. The data on fx pairs that i have also corroborate this. Surprised? I know i was.
Of course you can make statistics show anything you want and time will tell but its interesting to me because i tend to find mondays a bit hit or miss.
Ah well, ho hum...