S&P 500 & other indexes - intraday. Plus chat

re: Intra day S&P 500

I'm back too - sickness gone AND added bonus that my ISP owned up to the problem with my connection.
 
re: Intra day S&P 500

Took the wife out, got back at 10:20 EST - seems like I've missed out somewhat.

Now it's about 1407. I'm not going to go long here, although I do see potential for a continuation up to 1418.

I'll wait an hour or two for a reversal and if confirmed, I'll try for the downside.
 
re: Intra day S&P 500

DionysusToast said:
Took the wife out, got back at 10:20 EST - seems like I've missed out somewhat.

Now it's about 1407. I'm not going to go long here, although I do see potential for a continuation up to 1418.

I'll wait an hour or two for a reversal and if confirmed, I'll try for the downside.
Click to expand...

I missed it too. I was watching it but couldn't see any entry strategy other than just jumping on somewhere, which is a little haphazard for me.

There was a reasonable entry signal for me on NQ, but it occurred in the opening minutes and I'm very wary about wading in right on the open.

Ho hum, can't catch 'em all.
 
re: Intra day S&P 500

Whilst it's easy to say in hindsight - sometimes you do just have to jump on moves like that.

Not sure if I would have or not, though but it's something I do if I think a move has legs.

BTW - was it just the ISM releases that did that. Seems a bit much, considering. Still, we are into price discovery on the ES too, so maybe it's a combination of upward momentum and good news.
 
re: Intra day S&P 500

DionysusToast said:
Whilst it's easy to say in hindsight - sometimes you do just have to jump on moves like that.

Not sure if I would have or not, though but it's something I do if I think a move has legs.

BTW - was it just the ISM releases that did that. Seems a bit much, considering. Still, we are into price discovery on the ES too, so maybe it's a combination of upward momentum and good news.
Click to expand...

ISM? It was at the same time, but it seems a whopping move for a slightly-better-than-expected number.

I'm coming to terms with just jumping in, but it's a slow process. I'm not sure I've evolved far enough away from price action to be comfortable with that yet - ie, buying based on true price action, stripped of any signal or trigger. I'm also struggling with the appropriate stop placement - near with big position size (probably a lot of losers with some monster winners), or far with small position size (fewer losers, and those reduced, but with small wins). Puzzle puzzle.

But mainly I guess it's psychological. It's just tough to react that fast when you're buying high or selling low after a big move. Like today I was on the brink but just couldn't pull the trigger, and of course it gets further away all the time. So in the end I just missed it.
 
re: Intra day S&P 500

Practice gritting your teeth in the mirror for 5 minutes each time you brush your teeth...
 
re: Intra day S&P 500

The Leopard said:
ISM? It was at the same time, but it seems a whopping move for a slightly-better-than-expected number.

I'm coming to terms with just jumping in, but it's a slow process. I'm not sure I've evolved far enough away from price action to be comfortable with that yet - ie, buying based on true price action, stripped of any signal or trigger. I'm also struggling with the appropriate stop placement - near with big position size (probably a lot of losers with some monster winners), or far with small position size (fewer losers, and those reduced, but with small wins). Puzzle puzzle.

But mainly I guess it's psychological. It's just tough to react that fast when you're buying high or selling low after a big move. Like today I was on the brink but just couldn't pull the trigger, and of course it gets further away all the time. So in the end I just missed it.
Click to expand...

I struggle with this too. And usually when price is running fast, it starts heading into areas you hadn't expected it to, so that when I have jumped on these in the past, I've jumped on and watched it stall. Wondered for a minute or too why it had stalled. Zoomed out and noticed it had stopped right on a weekly high or some other barrier that I'd been too stupid to put on my charts prior to the move. The only thing that's given me any success with these runaway moves is to drop down to a small timeframe for entry and hope I get an entry I 'recognise'.
 
re: Intra day S&P 500

Without having proper charts with me, was this an open-drive day from RTH open?

Personally I think it's pointless looking for reasons why it moved like this. Additionally, I too have problems with the 'jump in' and tend to look for reasons too. Shame as these kind of moves are really lucrative if you have the cojones - I don't :(
 
re: Intra day S&P 500

Rob

I think the cause of a move is important in knowing if you can jump on it or not.

Yesterday, we spent the 1st 30 mins in a tight range, hit the ONL and had got a tick below when the 10am news releases came in.

ES1stMay.png
 
re: Intra day S&P 500

Arrived late, seems I have missed re-test of the RTH-H at 1399.25 which has a nice confluence with yesterday's high. Bugger. Wary of anything else now so have missed out on today.
 
re: Intra day S&P 500

robster970 said:
Arrived late, seems I have missed re-test of the RTH-H at 1399.25 which has a nice confluence with yesterday's high. Bugger. Wary of anything else now so have missed out on today.
Click to expand...

I took a short below the low made in the first 10 minutes (it was rejected initially pretty strongly). This was on NQ, but the action is pretty much the same.

That was stopped out for a scratch trade (wouldn't have been had I taken it on ES) and I'm short again on the pull back (again on NQ), sold at 2724.5 .
 
re: Intra day S&P 500

You're going to laugh when I post this trade up in a minute:


a. Late arrival today, can see RTH-H has been pinged but volume is low
b. I can see that when it sold off, it pushed through 1395.50 to 1396.00 area which previously provided strong support
c. My trade hypothesis is that it will rotate upto this area from the low at 1391 and then sell-off from there
d. Short, market order 1395.75 @ 15:57 GMT (1)
e. Going sideways, VPOC has moved up to 1396.00 - sellers overwhelming buyers? Delta is -ve to the tune of 20k
f. Oh dear, pushing up a bit now but it really doesn't seem to have any legs
g. It's touching 97 but I can see that the rotations are failing to go higher and a ledge is forming at 1395.00 - who is propping this up? Is this a trap?
h. Sold off through the VPOC, tentatively testing 1395.00
g. Going sideways again
i. OK,pushing through, out market order at 1394.75 @ 16:46 GMT (2)
j. Jesus this has just punched a hole through it - I got out way too early!!
k. 4 ticks profit before commissions, an unusual trade for me this in the doldrums
l. MAE 7 ticks, MFE 20 ticks, exit efficiency 20%
m. Ah well, hard target for the week hit
 

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re: Intra day S&P 500

yeah, definitely missed out. It did dump quickly too.
But you made your target for the week so no sense crying about it!

Peter
 
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