robster970
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Finished for the day - trade posted up in a minute
S&P 500 & other indexes - intraday. Plus chat
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DionysusToast
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Interesting open
Obviously, market had been heading down since my pre-market analysis but left a nice low volume node up there @ 1330.25 - it went up there and reversed off fairly shapish and I didn't get in until 1328.50.
Got 1327.50, 1326.50 & 1324.50 - the latter being my trailing stop.
Now looking to see what happens @ 1320, see if it can get there & reverse back up...
Obviously, market had been heading down since my pre-market analysis but left a nice low volume node up there @ 1330.25 - it went up there and reversed off fairly shapish and I didn't get in until 1328.50.
Got 1327.50, 1326.50 & 1324.50 - the latter being my trailing stop.
Now looking to see what happens @ 1320, see if it can get there & reverse back up...
DionysusToast
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robster970
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a. ONH 1342, ONL 1325.50
b. NVPOC @ 1317.50 and 1325.00
c. Note the confluence between ONL and NVPOC.......
d. ON VPOC at 1336 - seems sellers shut off buyers in the overnight market after a gap up and European session has been selling off all day
e. Gap close at 1322.75
f. 345k CBAVOL on 09 contract only, OAOR to upside, expecting weakness
g. Pushing up, seems weak, jump on?
h. Sh1t - missed that entry for the swing lower
i. OK, let's see what it does around 25
j. Pushing into it, 24.50 on the ladder, buyers coming in though
k. OK, long market order at 1325.25 @ 14:34GMT (1) - could have got a better entry if I'd have been a bit braver
l. Up it goes
m. Stalling already, think I'm trading against the flow, out market order at 1326.00 @ 14:36GMT (2)
n. 3 ticks profit before commissions
o. MAE, 2 ticks, MFE 4 ticks, exit efficiency 75%
p. Little hesitant trigger pulling today
q. Todays coffee - decaf americano
r. Todays opera - Semele by Handel
s. Annoyed I missed fading the opening swing today, that was the best trade by a mile.
b. NVPOC @ 1317.50 and 1325.00
c. Note the confluence between ONL and NVPOC.......
d. ON VPOC at 1336 - seems sellers shut off buyers in the overnight market after a gap up and European session has been selling off all day
e. Gap close at 1322.75
f. 345k CBAVOL on 09 contract only, OAOR to upside, expecting weakness
g. Pushing up, seems weak, jump on?
h. Sh1t - missed that entry for the swing lower
i. OK, let's see what it does around 25
j. Pushing into it, 24.50 on the ladder, buyers coming in though
k. OK, long market order at 1325.25 @ 14:34GMT (1) - could have got a better entry if I'd have been a bit braver
l. Up it goes
m. Stalling already, think I'm trading against the flow, out market order at 1326.00 @ 14:36GMT (2)
n. 3 ticks profit before commissions
o. MAE, 2 ticks, MFE 4 ticks, exit efficiency 75%
p. Little hesitant trigger pulling today
q. Todays coffee - decaf americano
r. Todays opera - Semele by Handel
s. Annoyed I missed fading the opening swing today, that was the best trade by a mile.
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robster970
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I think I already posted up your trade
I tried to fade you and decided not too........
I wanted your trade but was too chicken to pull trigger......
wackypete2
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I tried to fade you and decided not too........
I wanted your trade but was too chicken to pull trigger......
same here. I waited and hesitated and missed it altogether.
Peter
robster970
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same here. I waited and hesitated and missed it altogether.
Peter
Funny, another 30secs of obvious weakness and I probably would have taken it. It just felt too early out of the traps and because it had opened up, I was wary of somebody coming in and just blowing the shorts out of the water......
wackypete2
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That was my assessment. It dumped fast so I decided to wait to see if it was a fake out and a reverse back up, but it just kept falling until I realized I missed out. No trade so no loss. That's a good thing at least.
Peter
DionysusToast
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Damn - that day was brutal....
Gap up & a 40 point drop. Expecting it to return to value is one thing. Dropping 40 points down all in one day is crazy.
Now - whilst the obvious thing here is that we poke down below value and find buyers, I'm wondering now if it isn't time to break out of this balance area. For example, if we poke up through the top again, are we still going to find as many sellers there?
Will do pre-market analysis later on - no point doing it so early as the overnight sessions are making a lot of it redundant.
Crazy market though...
Gap up & a 40 point drop. Expecting it to return to value is one thing. Dropping 40 points down all in one day is crazy.
Now - whilst the obvious thing here is that we poke down below value and find buyers, I'm wondering now if it isn't time to break out of this balance area. For example, if we poke up through the top again, are we still going to find as many sellers there?
Will do pre-market analysis later on - no point doing it so early as the overnight sessions are making a lot of it redundant.
Crazy market though...
Pat494
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12:01am GBP RICS House Price Balance -16% -17% -19%
12:50am JPY Tertiary Industry Activity m/m -0.3% 0.4% -0.6%
12:50am JPY CGPI y/y -0.5% -0.3% -0.3%
1:00am JPY BOJ Gov Shirakawa Speaks
2:30am AUD NAB Business Confidence -2 4
6:30am EUR French Final Non-Farm Payrolls q/q 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
6:45am CHF SECO Economic Forecasts
9:30am GBP Manufacturing Production m/m -0.7% 0.0% 0.9%
9:30am GBP Industrial Production m/m 0.0% 0.2% -0.3%
1:30pm USD Import Prices m/m -1.0% -0.5%
3:00pm GBP NIESR GDP Estimate 0.1%
3:00pm USD IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism 49.0 48.5
7:00pm USD Federal Budget Balance -112.7B 59.1B
12:50am JPY Tertiary Industry Activity m/m -0.3% 0.4% -0.6%
12:50am JPY CGPI y/y -0.5% -0.3% -0.3%
1:00am JPY BOJ Gov Shirakawa Speaks
2:30am AUD NAB Business Confidence -2 4
6:30am EUR French Final Non-Farm Payrolls q/q 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
6:45am CHF SECO Economic Forecasts
9:30am GBP Manufacturing Production m/m -0.7% 0.0% 0.9%
9:30am GBP Industrial Production m/m 0.0% 0.2% -0.3%
1:30pm USD Import Prices m/m -1.0% -0.5%
3:00pm GBP NIESR GDP Estimate 0.1%
3:00pm USD IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism 49.0 48.5
7:00pm USD Federal Budget Balance -112.7B 59.1B
ELLI0TT
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This is a longer term Dow chart. Note the similar patterns as annotated.
Two expanded Flat corrections (in Elliott Wave terms). Very similar in terms of price and time. If the patterns continue as anticipated then the next major move will be up. There is room for lower prices over the coming months but this should be the early stages of a longer term Bull market.
Two expanded Flat corrections (in Elliott Wave terms). Very similar in terms of price and time. If the patterns continue as anticipated then the next major move will be up. There is room for lower prices over the coming months but this should be the early stages of a longer term Bull market.
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Pat494
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DionysusToast
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Looking at the last 3 days is interesting if you drill down a bit. Especially yesterday.
Even though we had something a candlestick chartist would probably be able to write a 10,000 word essay on.
As it is, the past 3 days all have something in common, the most volume was traded at the 1315-1317 area. No Pre-market analysis yet but expectation if we get to 1315 today is that we will churn there for a while.
Even though we had something a candlestick chartist would probably be able to write a 10,000 word essay on.
As it is, the past 3 days all have something in common, the most volume was traded at the 1315-1317 area. No Pre-market analysis yet but expectation if we get to 1315 today is that we will churn there for a while.
Pat494
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Looking at the last 3 days is interesting if you drill down a bit. Especially yesterday.
Even though we had something a candlestick chartist would probably be able to write a 10,000 word essay on.
As it is, the past 3 days all have something in common, the most volume was traded at the 1315-1317 area. No Pre-market analysis yet but expectation if we get to 1315 today is that we will churn there for a while.
The fundamentals could tip the balance imho
DionysusToast
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So here's my pre-market analysis - it's 6:13am EST right now...
Asia – Mixed
Europe – Mixed
Pre-market down.
OK - so not much change pre-market
I'm fighting the temptation to box up the last 3 days action (pus overnight) and seeing if we can balance around there but I won't as we haven't broken out of the last area.
Value 1288.25 - 1322.50
Look to short LVNs above 132250 - 1326, 1331.75
Look to long LVNs below 1288.25 - 1280.50, 1273.22
Also got my eye on that 1315-1317 area as a potential place we'll rotate around.
Asia – Mixed
Europe – Mixed
Pre-market down.
OK - so not much change pre-market
I'm fighting the temptation to box up the last 3 days action (pus overnight) and seeing if we can balance around there but I won't as we haven't broken out of the last area.
Value 1288.25 - 1322.50
Look to short LVNs above 132250 - 1326, 1331.75
Look to long LVNs below 1288.25 - 1280.50, 1273.22
Also got my eye on that 1315-1317 area as a potential place we'll rotate around.
DionysusToast
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Probably also worth note that pre-market volume is about 75k below average and we've been in a range from 1301-1309, so that's also worth looking out for.
robster970
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Finished for the day - post up after I have been for a pee - should have gone before open....
wackypete2
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robster970
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a. ONH 1309.25, ONL 1297
b. Gap close 1300.75
c. Support around 1300 area for the last few days - confluence!
d. Note that there is a buying tail in the ON market finishing at 98.50
e. NVPOC at 1314.75, ON VPOC 1305.50
f. Big selling shelf at 1309 area from ON market
g. Watch 1300 and 1309
h. Low grade news at 15:00GMT
i. OAIR, 425k CBAVOL, moderate but spreading going on right now so suspect it is low.
j. This is churny
k. Turned at 7.25 - this is nothing area
l. OK, here we go for the gap close
m. Hmm buyers came in around 2.50, back up she goes
n. Watch for a test of the high here
o. Don't trust that sell off after 7.50 pinged, not decisive
p. Loitering around 6 to 7 area - that was a good call, positioning for news methinks and a breakout from here to the ONH which will be faded
q. Ping - there it blows, this is moving quickly around 8.75
r. Short, market order 1308.00 @ 15:03GMT - slippy around here (1)
s. There she blows
t. Hitting 5 now where it turned, stalling in little
u. Out market order at 1305.25 at 15:05GMT (2)
v. 11 ticks profit before commissions
w. MAE 3 ticks, MFE 22 ticks, exit efficiency 50%
x. Best trade, this one but could have held a bit longer for a whopper!
y. Todays coffee - decaf latte
z. Todays opera - no opera, listening to some baroque today
a1. Always go pee before the open. Sitting there wondering whether to pee for missing a trade is not a good place to be. I'm pretty sure I rushed that exit because I saw I had bagged a good one and needed to pee.
b. Gap close 1300.75
c. Support around 1300 area for the last few days - confluence!
d. Note that there is a buying tail in the ON market finishing at 98.50
e. NVPOC at 1314.75, ON VPOC 1305.50
f. Big selling shelf at 1309 area from ON market
g. Watch 1300 and 1309
h. Low grade news at 15:00GMT
i. OAIR, 425k CBAVOL, moderate but spreading going on right now so suspect it is low.
j. This is churny
k. Turned at 7.25 - this is nothing area
l. OK, here we go for the gap close
m. Hmm buyers came in around 2.50, back up she goes
n. Watch for a test of the high here
o. Don't trust that sell off after 7.50 pinged, not decisive
p. Loitering around 6 to 7 area - that was a good call, positioning for news methinks and a breakout from here to the ONH which will be faded
q. Ping - there it blows, this is moving quickly around 8.75
r. Short, market order 1308.00 @ 15:03GMT - slippy around here (1)
s. There she blows
t. Hitting 5 now where it turned, stalling in little
u. Out market order at 1305.25 at 15:05GMT (2)
v. 11 ticks profit before commissions
w. MAE 3 ticks, MFE 22 ticks, exit efficiency 50%
x. Best trade, this one but could have held a bit longer for a whopper!
y. Todays coffee - decaf latte
z. Todays opera - no opera, listening to some baroque today
a1. Always go pee before the open. Sitting there wondering whether to pee for missing a trade is not a good place to be. I'm pretty sure I rushed that exit because I saw I had bagged a good one and needed to pee.
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