S&P 500 & other indexes - intraday. Plus chat

The price rises and falls. I wonder if the odds change nearer to the close ?
 

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I wouldn't take the bet around 2.50 area - it's bang where the VPOC has formed. If I was going to have a punt though I'd probably go below 1302.50 because I *think* the +ve delta of 19k contracts will sell-off for the remainder of the session taking price below this VPOC.

As you can see from this snip their price is not the same as the market price. About 1 or 2 points different.
 

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Not satisfied with offering < evens, they also offset by 1.5pts. Aren't they the cheeky ones....
 
Incidentally, has Wekim disappeared? I was interested in carrying on talking to him about his dilemma

still here, will get to respond to your last posts, busy being pissed at myself for getting scared and missing this uptrend today
 
still here, will get to respond to your last posts, busy being pissed at myself for getting scared and missing this uptrend today

Let it go dude. Tomorrow is another day. Jumping on a big day like today is way easier said than done.
 
That took a bit longer. In chronological order as the session played out.

Picture 2 - the opening 45 mins of RTH

Note the point where it got to 69, the profile is quite boxy, it doesn't indicate anything. There was no way at this point you were to know this would become an LVN.

Yea! This is what I was saying earlier. Thats why its hard for me..
Picture 3 - post 45 mins and your trade

What you could have done is held for a test of the new RTH-Low that was formed which is what it did before deciding to go north again.

Hrmm right yeah I overlooked that. Sometimes though it never does test the low, and starts to reverse early. So theres a few possibilities:
1. tests the low and the low holds, I can consider exiting after seeing that
2. tests the low and breaks thru, I profit even more as I hold
3. never tests the low and my profits start to evaporate

Usually I'm not prepared for these, and then they all start flooding into my mind mid-trade, which is the worst possible time. I probably need to think these through well ahead of time, so that I can just react based on what I see happening rather than trying to figure it all out on the fly...

I'm sure these "dilemmas" are all things newbies face, just hard to resolve so far
 
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Pretty much - boom, boom, boom - price after price. It does pullback but the waves are predominantly upwards.

You won't see this until you start looking for it. For that, you are going to need to switch off the charts for a few days. Tell yourself what you are looking for - signs of strength as opposed to signs of weakness & you'll start to see it. Then you recognize what strength looks like you can either go with it or at least stop fading it.

Slap me on the wrist today. Early on I went long on the pullback from the open, (I was going long right where rob was covering his one trade, we were both buying there), but then mid-trade I didn't stay with my stop and got scared after it went against me 2 ticks. It was a longer term bias too, I wouldve probably gotten out at 1301 from 1294 :(

Since then, the whole day today I'm looking for spots to fade and obviously not working out good ha
 
Hrmm right yeah I overlooked that. Sometimes though it never does test the low, and starts to reverse early. So theres a few possibilities:
1. tests the low and the low holds, I can consider exiting after seeing that
2. tests the low and breaks thru, I profit even more as I hold
3. never tests the low and my profits start to evaporate

Usually I'm not prepared for these, and then they all start flooding into my mind mid-trade, which is the worst possible time. I probably need to think these through well ahead of time, so that I can just react based on what I see happening rather than trying to figure it all out on the fly...

I'm sure these "dilemmas" are all things newbies face, just hard to resolve so far

They are not really dilemmas, it is just experience. You will just build up a library of experiences. Lets go through a hypothetical exercise for each assuming that it is the first time it happens to you:

1. Low holds. You end up with confirmation here that lows are often tested again before price take off wholeheartedly in the opposite direction. You exit a few ticks from the low after seeing the second test hold. If you're a brave man, you cover and reverse.

2. Low doesn't hold. Like you said you continue probably until you see the VPOC shift down to wherever. You learn that it pays to hold onto the second test of the low because the worst thing that can happen is that the low holds.

3. It doesn't return to the low. Well, considering that money flow in a particular direction is difficult to stop, this does happen from time to time but really, how often have you seen this happen? Would a scratch trade here be such a bad exit?

A combination of playing it out beforehand coupled with experience as it grows will lead you to trade the situation with a greater degree of clarity.

Incidentally, you are using x_trader. Do you look at the DOM and T&S whilst trading? How do you find that additional information right now?
 
Slap me on the wrist today. Early on I went long on the pullback from the open, (I was going long right where rob was covering his one trade, we were both buying there), but then mid-trade I didn't stay with my stop and got scared after it went against me 2 ticks. It was a longer term bias too, I wouldve probably gotten out at 1301 from 1294 :(

Since then, the whole day today I'm looking for spots to fade and obviously not working out good ha

You got in 3 ticks from the low of the day

facepalm-500x4001.jpg
 
I took a few ticks on the way up, not worth posting a charts or an explanation though. Just thought I'd ride the trend a bit. Being someone who typically likes to swing trade I found it very hard to do and was also watching most the day looking for a pull back. Think DT might be onto something with his ABCD thing!

Good luck in the asian session all, stay alert ;-)
 
3. It doesn't return to the low. Well, considering that money flow in a particular direction is difficult to stop, this does happen from time to time but really, how often have you seen this happen? Would a scratch trade here be such a bad exit?

I suppose a scratch wouldn't be bad, I just hate giving up profits so far since its rare when I actually can pick a correct move for a few points. Usually I'm in and out in a few ticks, more losers than winners, so I need to make up for those with some bigger wins somehow.

Incidentally, you are using x_trader. Do you look at the DOM and T&S whilst trading? How do you find that additional information right now?

I enter/exit using the xtrader DOM, but I dont really look at it much. I look at DT's product since it does a much better job of showing the actual trades going through. Honestly I'm having a more difficult time finding signals with the DOM/TS than I thought I would after reading the NO BS book and DT's site. Again, just watching what is trading right now still doesn't give me the confidence to know whats gonna happen next. For example, often I'll see iceberg orders which might lean me to a reversal, only to watch price keep going through. Today at one point there was a massive 6000 contract iceberg at one point, the largest I've seen at one level yet in my few weeks of watching, and price eventually broke through anyway.
 
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